The last time the Dallas Cowboys and Atlanta Falcons met, the (6-2) Cowboys were coming off an embarrassing home defeat to a hapless Denver Broncos team in 2021.

The Cowboys blew out the Falcons 43-3 and would go on to finish 12-5 while the Falcons finished 7-10 in Arthur Smith’s first season.

Things are a little different this season. The Falcons are 5-3 and leading the NFC South, and the 3-4 Cowboys are coming off back-to-back losses to NFC superpowers in the Detroit Lions and San Francisco 49ers.

ESPN considers the Falcons a 3.5-point favorite heading into the 1:00 p.m. kickoff in Mercedes-Benz Stadium, but their trio of weekly writers is split on how the game will turn out.

NFL reporter Kalyn Kahler, fantasy analyst Eric Moody, and analytics writer Seth Walder came to a 2-1 split decision in favor of the Falcons when picking Sunday’s game.

Kahler’s pick: Falcons 28, Cowboys 20
Moody’s pick: Falcons 31, Cowboys, 27
Walder’s pick: Cowboys 27, Falcons 23
FPI prediction: ATL, 56.7% (by an average of 2.6 points)

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After a rough 1-3 start, Walder has correctly picked the outcome of three-straight Falcons games to be 4-3 on the season. Kahler has missed the last two and is 3-4, and Moody has gotten four of the last five to be 4-3 on the season as well.

The trio didn’t have predictions for Atlanta’s Week 5 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The prediction piece is released every Friday morning, and the Falcons beat the Buccaneers 36-30 that week on Thursday Night Football.

Walder also includes a bold prediction every week, and this is the week he thinks Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts cools off.

“Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts will record under 25 receiving yards,” wrote Walder. “I’m not expecting a breakout from him, not with a 33 open score anyway. That’s the worst among all qualifying tight ends and wide receivers.”

A reasonable point to think a receiver who doesn’t get open will have trouble getting yards. However, despite the low open score, Pitts has at least 65 yards in each of his last four games.

Last week the Cowboys gave up 6 catches for 128 yards and a touchdown to the 49ers’ George Kittle. Sam LaPorta only needed one catch to get 54 yards for the Lions in their 47-9 blowout of the Cowboys in Dallas.

If Walder is setting the O/U on Kyle Pitts at 25 yards against the Cowboys’ No. 20 passing defense, I’ll take the over. To be fair, a “bold prediction” is something that isn’t likely to happen.

The Cowboys and the Falcons have both struggled on defense this year. The Falcons’ inability to affect the passer has been well documented. If Dak Prescott has the patience, and is afforded the time to throw, he’ll methodically pick the Falcons’ defense apart.

The Cowboys don’t run the ball very well, employing the NFL’s worst rushing attack. Expect Prescott to use the short-passing game as an extension of the running game to the tune of 35/50 for 300 yards.

Atlanta will need to get the Cowboys off the field. That’s something they have struggled with this season with the NFL’s No. 30 third-down defense. Teams are converting third-down on the Falcons 49% of the time.

If Atlanta can get the Cowboys off the field and hand the ball over to Kirk Cousins and the Falcons offense with regularity, Atlanta wins this game.

If they can’t, it will be a frustrating afternoon watching Prescott and the Cowboys dink and dunk the Falcons to death while Atlanta’s explosive offense watches from the sidelines.

Prediction:
Falcons: 31
Cowboys: 24

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