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Will Bitcoin Repeat History? On-Chain Data Suggests a Q4 Breakout: CryptoQuant

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Will Bitcoin Repeat History? On-Chain Data Suggests a Q4 Breakout: CryptoQuant

Historical data shows bitcoin (BTC) performing well in the fourth quarters of previous bull cycles, especially in halving years. Current on-chain data indicates that the leading cryptocurrency is following previous patterns and is on track to another remarkable Q4.

A report by the market analytics platform CryptoQuant revealed that bitcoin’s price rally in the coming weeks could be sustainable because demand for the asset is recovering and growing at the fastest monthly pace since April.Bitcoin in Positive Seasonal Performance

During bitcoin’s seasonal performance in the halving years of 2012, 2016, and 2020, the cryptocurrency increased by 9%, 59%, and 171%, respectively, in their fourth quarters. CryptoQuant analysts found that BTC is behaving very similarly to patterns seen in 2016 and 2020.

This positive performance is driven by the spike in apparent demand for BTC, which recorded a monthly growth of 177,000 BTC last week, its largest reading since April. Apparent demand refers to the difference between BTC production (mining issuance) and changes in its inventory (supply inactive for more than a year). This metric reached 496,000 BTC in early April, shortly after BTC rallied above $72,000 in March.

The surge in this metric preceded an over 5% rally in the price of BTC. The cryptocurrency touched a ten-week high of $68,100 earlier this week and was changing hands at $67,900 at the time of writing.Demand Is Growing

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Furthermore, the rise in BTC demand can be seen in the increased purchases of United States spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). These products have been netbuyingroughly 8,000 BTC recently, their highest daily purchase since July 21.

Large bitcoin investors (whales) are also expanding their holdings, with their balancesgrowingby 670,000 BTC yearly. Additionally, the growth of whale holdings stands above its 365-day moving average, which is considered a positive sign for prices.

CryptoQuant says the expansion of bitcoin’s apparent demand is necessary for BTC to surge sustainably to record highs. Historical data shows how positive and growing apparent demand led BTC price rallies in 2020-2021 and earlier this year. Apparent demand in those cases peaked at 490,000-550,000 BTC; however, current demand stands at 177,000 BTC. Hence, there is more room for growth.

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Crypto

XRP Slides Sharply as Global Tensions Trigger Broad Risk-off Selling

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XRP Slides Sharply as Global Tensions Trigger Broad Risk-off Selling
XRP slid deeper into a defensive posture as selling pressure persisted, technical indicators stayed bearish and global risk-off sentiment intensified, leaving the token pinned near range lows with traders wary of further downside amid heightened geopolitical and trade tensions.
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1 Top Cryptocurrency to Buy Before It Soars 1,000%, According to Michael Saylor | The Motley Fool

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1 Top Cryptocurrency to Buy Before It Soars 1,000%, According to Michael Saylor | The Motley Fool

The Bitcoin maximalist expects the token’s price to hit $1 million this year.

Bitcoin‘s (BTC 3.80%) price hit an all-time high of $126,210.50 on Oct. 6, 2025, but it now trades at about $90,000. The world’s top cryptocurrency pulled back nearly 30% as many investors booked profits, triggering leveraged liquidations. Geopolitical tensions, tariffs, and other macroeconomic headwinds exacerbated that selling pressure.

Nevertheless, Strategy‘s (MSTR 7.76%) Michael Saylor — who orchestrated his software company’s historic transformation into Bitcoin’s most prominent corporate investor over the past five and a half years — still expects the token’s price to soar more than 1,000% to $1,000,000 this year. Let’s see if that top Bitcoin maximalist’s bold prediction might come true.

Image source: Getty Images.

What’s the bullish case for Bitcoin?

Bitcoin is mined using the energy-intensive proof-of-work (PoW) consensus mechanism, which requires miners to solve cryptographic puzzles with powerful chips to earn tokens. It was initially mined with CPUs and GPUs, but its mining rewards are cut in half every four years.

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These scheduled “halvings” make it harder to mine Bitcoin profitably. Today, miners need powerful application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs) to produce new tokens.

Bitcoin has a maximum supply of 21 million tokens, and nearly 20 million have already been mined. However, its halvings will delay the last token’s mining until 2140. That fixed scarcity makes Bitcoin more comparable to gold, silver, and other finite commodities. Hence, the bulls claimed it could become a hedge against inflation and the devaluation of fiat currencies.

Bitcoin Stock Quote

Today’s Change

(-3.80%) $-3533.58

Current Price

$89440.00

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The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved the first spot price exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for Bitcoin in early 2024, which made it easier for retail and institutional investors to gain exposure to the top cryptocurrency without a dedicated crypto wallet. Moreover, the U.S. launched its own Strategic Bitcoin Reserve for seized Bitcoins last March. El Salvador and the Central African Republic also accepted Bitcoin as legal tender for several years.

Those catalysts could transform Bitcoin into “digital gold” over the next few decades. However, Bitcoin’s market cap of $1.8 trillion is still tiny compared to gold’s $33.1 trillion.

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Why does Saylor expect Bitcoin to hit $1 million?

Based on these facts, Bitcoin’s price could rise tenfold and still be significantly less valuable than gold. Saylor, along with the industry’s other Bitcoin maximalists, expects soaring government debt to drive countries to print more money, diluting the value of their fiat currencies. That monetary expansion will drive more investors toward gold and Bitcoin.

Furthermore, the Trump Administration’s recent actions against the Federal Reserve — including an attempt to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook and a Department of Justice (DOJ) probe into Fed chief Jerome Powell — indicate it wants new leaders for the Fed who favor accelerated interest rate cuts.

Deeper interest rate cuts could stimulate the broader economy, but they’ll also weaken the U.S. dollar and possibly drive up inflation again. That shift would probably boost Bitcoin’s value.

Over the past 12 months, gold rallied nearly 60% and silver more than doubled as investors braced for the devaluation of the U.S. dollar. Yet Bitcoin’s price declined by more than 10% during the same period, as it stumbled alongside the market’s more speculative investments.

Therefore, Bitcoin might catch up to gold and silver — and generate even bigger gains — by the end of 2026 as those tailwinds kick in. However, I think it’s too ambitious to expect it to hit $1,000,000. Since Bitcoin is still broadly classified as a speculative play, it could sink much further than gold or silver during the next market crash. I’m bullish on Bitcoin’s long-term growth potential, but I’m bracing for more near-term volatility instead of expecting it to soar 1,000% this year.

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2026 Won’t Be About Cycles — Research Shows What Will Actually Drive Crypto Prices

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2026 Won’t Be About Cycles — Research Shows What Will Actually Drive Crypto Prices
Crypto markets are shedding their four-year cycle as ETFs, concentrated liquidity and investor attention reshape price discovery, with Wintermute research pointing to 2026 as the moment digital assets begin trading like global financial instruments.
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