Crypto
Will Bitcoin Repeat History? On-Chain Data Suggests a Q4 Breakout: CryptoQuant
Historical data shows bitcoin (BTC) performing well in the fourth quarters of previous bull cycles, especially in halving years. Current on-chain data indicates that the leading cryptocurrency is following previous patterns and is on track to another remarkable Q4.
A report by the market analytics platform CryptoQuant revealed that bitcoin’s price rally in the coming weeks could be sustainable because demand for the asset is recovering and growing at the fastest monthly pace since April.Bitcoin in Positive Seasonal Performance
During bitcoin’s seasonal performance in the halving years of 2012, 2016, and 2020, the cryptocurrency increased by 9%, 59%, and 171%, respectively, in their fourth quarters. CryptoQuant analysts found that BTC is behaving very similarly to patterns seen in 2016 and 2020.
This positive performance is driven by the spike in apparent demand for BTC, which recorded a monthly growth of 177,000 BTC last week, its largest reading since April. Apparent demand refers to the difference between BTC production (mining issuance) and changes in its inventory (supply inactive for more than a year). This metric reached 496,000 BTC in early April, shortly after BTC rallied above $72,000 in March.
The surge in this metric preceded an over 5% rally in the price of BTC. The cryptocurrency touched a ten-week high of $68,100 earlier this week and was changing hands at $67,900 at the time of writing.Demand Is Growing
Furthermore, the rise in BTC demand can be seen in the increased purchases of United States spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). These products have been netbuyingroughly 8,000 BTC recently, their highest daily purchase since July 21.
Large bitcoin investors (whales) are also expanding their holdings, with their balancesgrowingby 670,000 BTC yearly. Additionally, the growth of whale holdings stands above its 365-day moving average, which is considered a positive sign for prices.
CryptoQuant says the expansion of bitcoin’s apparent demand is necessary for BTC to surge sustainably to record highs. Historical data shows how positive and growing apparent demand led BTC price rallies in 2020-2021 and earlier this year. Apparent demand in those cases peaked at 490,000-550,000 BTC; however, current demand stands at 177,000 BTC. Hence, there is more room for growth.
Crypto
OKX Invests in Vietnam Exchange CAEX Ahead of Crypto Pilot
Key Takeaways
- OKX invested in CAEX to meet Vietnam’s $380 million pilot requirement, advancing regulation.
- CAEX, backed by OKX and Hashkey, signals a shift to compliant platforms across Southeast Asia.
- OKX expands 2026 regulatory push after Malta license, as it aims to lead efforts in shaping Vietnam’s crypto market.
Vietnam’s CAEX Gains OKX Support for Regulated Crypto Push
OKX has taken a strategic stake in Vietnam’s CAEX exchange, positioning itself to support the country’s push toward regulated cryptocurrency trading.
The investment, made alongside local partners including VPBank Securities and LynkiD, as well as Hashkey Capital, will help CAEX meet the financial threshold required to participate in a government-backed pilot program. Vietnam has set a minimum capital requirement of $380 million (VND 10 trillion) for firms seeking to operate within the trial framework.
The partnership signals a growing alignment between global crypto firms and local operators as Southeast Asia moves toward clearer regulatory oversight.
Star Xu, Founder and CEO of OKX, wrote in a blog post, saying,
We expect most Southeast Asian markets to establish clear regulatory frameworks and licensing pathways for digital asset companies. This region is already one of the most important sources of global crypto liquidity. We believe the future of crypto will be built on regulated, local platforms that users can trust, and CAEX represents that future in Vietnam.”
CAEX, formally known as Vietnam Prosperity Crypto Asset Exchange Joint Stock Company, is expected to combine domestic market expertise with international infrastructure and compliance standards. OKX said it will contribute not only capital but also technical support across areas such as risk management, security systems, and liquidity provision.
The initiative comes as Vietnam explores a controlled rollout of digital asset trading under government supervision. While details of the pilot program remain limited, authorities have indicated a preference for well-capitalized and compliant platforms.
OKX’s involvement reflects its broader strategy of working within regulatory frameworks rather than operating outside them. The company has spent recent years securing licenses and approvals in multiple jurisdictions, including registration in the United States and regulated operations across Europe.
Earlier this year, OKX obtained a Payment Institution license in Malta, allowing it to expand crypto payment services across the European Union under established regulatory regimes. The exchange has also pursued approvals in markets such as Singapore and Dubai, where it has built localized platforms tailored to regulatory requirements.
Executives at OKX have framed compliance as central to long-term growth. The firm has increased investment in anti-money laundering controls, customer verification processes, and internal risk systems, aiming to meet institutional standards as the industry matures.
That experience is now being applied to emerging markets. In Vietnam, the focus is on building a platform that can operate within a formal regulatory structure while scaling user adoption.
The investment also reflects a broader shift in the crypto industry. As governments introduce clearer rules, trading activity is increasingly moving toward licensed venues. Market participants are placing greater emphasis on transparency, asset protection, and regulatory oversight.
Southeast Asia remains a key region in that transition, accounting for a significant share of global crypto liquidity. For Vietnam, the CAEX initiative represents an early step in that process. For OKX and its partners, it offers an opportunity to shape the development of a regulated market from the ground up.
If successful, the model could serve as a blueprint for other countries in the region, where demand for digital assets continues to grow alongside calls for stronger investor protections.
Crypto
US Treasury to offer free cybersecurity intelligence to crypto firms
Crypto
Bitcoin and Ether ETFs Add Combined $443 Million in Strong Inflow Day
Key Takeaways:
- Bitcoin ETFs saw $358.17 million inflows on April 9, led by Blackrock IBIT, restoring momentum.
- Ether ETFs added $85.19 million as ETHA gained $90.94 million, showing selective but rising demand.
- XRP lost $661K while Solana saw no flows, suggesting capital is still fluctuating between altcoin ETFs.
Market Turns Decisively Positive for Bitcoin and Ether ETFs
No day is ever the same in the exchange-traded fund (ETF) market, and on Thursday, April 9, the tide turned again. This time, with force.
After a stretch of uneven flows and fading conviction, crypto ETFs snapped back into positive territory, delivering one of the week’s strongest sessions. The recovery was broad, decisive, and led by familiar names.
Bitcoin ETFs recorded a powerful $358.17 million in net inflows, marking a clean reversal from the prior day’s losses. Notably, every major fund contributed, and no outflows were recorded.
Blackrock’s IBIT once again dominated the field, pulling in $269.34 million, roughly three-quarters of total inflows. The scale of that contribution underscored its continued role as the market’s anchor. Fidelity’s FBTC followed with a solid $53.33 million, while Morgan Stanley’s newly launched MSBT added $14.87 million, building on its early momentum.
Further support came from Bitwise’s BITB with $11.73 million, Ark & 21Shares’ ARKB at $4.78 million, Vaneck’s HODL with $2.04 million, and Franklin’s EZBC at $2.08 million. Trading volume reached $1.99 billion, and net assets climbed to $93.29 billion.
Ether ETFs mirrored the rebound, though with a more mixed internal picture. The group posted $85.19 million in net inflows, driven by strong demand for select funds.
Blackrock’s ETHA led with $90.94 million, while its ETHB product added another $13.67 million, continuing its steady rise in investor preference. Grayscale’s Ether Mini Trust contributed $9.67 million.
Yet selling pressure persisted elsewhere. Fidelity’s FETH recorded a $20.98 million outflow, followed by 21Shares’ TETH with $5.53 million. Smaller outflows were seen in Franklin’s EZET at $1.68 million and Grayscale’s ETHE at $900,440. Despite these exits, inflows held firm. Trading volume came in at $831.08 million, with net assets closing at $12.69 billion.
Outside the majors, activity was limited. XRP ETFs posted a modest $661,160 outflow, entirely from 21Shares’ TOXR. Trading volume stood at $11.03 million, with net assets at $955.13 million.
Solana ETFs remained inactive for the session, with no recorded flows. Net assets held steady at $803.03 million.
The broader pattern is becoming clearer. Capital is returning, but it is concentrated. Investors are favoring scale, liquidity, and established names, particularly in bitcoin and select ether products. The market is not fully stable, but confidence is rebuilding in visible pockets.
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