Oregon
Oregon vs. Purdue football prediction: What the analytics say
One of the Big Ten’s new conference matchups kicks off this Friday night as No. 2 Oregon hits the road against Purdue in college football’s Week 8 action. Let’s take a look at the latest prediction for the game from the expert football model that picks winners.
Oregon is coming off the signature win of head coach Dan Lanning’s tenure, edging Ohio State by a single point a week ago, moving to 6-0 overall and a statement 3-0 mark in Big Ten play.
Purdue is on a 5-game losing streak, although it came within a point of upsetting ranked Illinois in overtime last weekend, but still ranks 101st nationally in scoring offense and 109th in passing output, although a quarterback change to Ryan Browne could boost those averages, as he threw for nearly 300 yards last week.
Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.
The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.
As expected, the Ducks are big favorites against the Boilermakers by the model’s calculations.
Oregon is projected to win the game outright in the overwhelming 95.1 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.
That leaves Purdue as the expected winner in the remaining 4.9 percent of sims.
The index also suggests a comfortable margin for the Ducks on the scoreboard in this game.
Oregon is projected to be 26.3 points better than Purdue on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.
If so, that wouldn’t be enough for the Ducks to cover a big spread against the Boilermakers.
That’s because Oregon is a 27.5 point favorite against Purdue, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, meaning it would need to win by 4 touchdowns to cover the line.
FanDuel set the total at 60.5 points for the game.
And it listed the moneyline odds for Oregon at -3000 and for Purdue at +1300 to win outright.
A slight majority of bets currently suggest the Ducks will dominate the Boilermakers, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.
Oregon is getting 55 percent of bets to win the game and cover the spread in the process.
The other 45 percent of wagers forecast that Purdue will either win the game in an upset, or more likely, will keep the score within 4 touchdowns in a loss.
Oregon is first among Big Ten teams with an 84.2 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 11.2 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.
That model gives Purdue a win total prediction of 1.7 games, the lowest mark in the Big Ten, and a 0 percent chance to become eligible for a bowl game.
The index forecasts that Oregon is 19.2 points better than an average opponent on a neutral field, according to its latest calculations.
But it estimates that Purdue is 9.7 points worse than opponents in a similar setting, one of four Big Ten teams to come out in negative numbers in that category.
Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.
Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.
Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.
First-place votes in parentheses
- Texas (56)
- Oregon (6)
- Penn State
- Ohio State
- Georgia
- Miami
- Alabama
- LSU
- Iowa State
- Clemson
- Tennessee
- Notre Dame
- BYU
- Texas A&M
- Boise State
- Indiana
- Kansas State
- Ole Miss
- Missouri
- Pittsburgh
- SMU
- Illinois
- Army
- Michigan
- Navy
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams
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PORTLAND, Ore. — The Oregon Community Foundation has awarded more than $5 million through its community grants program.
The money is going to organizations working to expand access to education, health services, economic opportunity, arts and culture, and more!
There are several places across the state, including rural Oregon, that will be getting some of this grant money.
Jocelyn Beh, a program officer in economic vitality and housing at the Oregon Community Foundation, discusses how exactly these grants will impact the state.
OREGON CITY Ore. (KPTV) – The Reformation Covenant Church in Oregon City caught fire on Christmas Day, according to Clackamas Fire.
“I personally, in my 25-year career, haven’t seen such a disastrous fire on Christmas Day,” said Clackamas County Fire Battalion Chief Josh Santos.
Firefighters responded to a reported fire at the church near John Quincy Adams St and 12th St just after 2 p.m.
Crews found the fire between the old and new roof of the church, and had to attack the fire from above as a result, according to the fire department.
“We prioritized putting people on the roof, cutting holes across the entire roof because of that void space and fire crews inside fighting the fire,” said Santos.
Clackamas Fire says while the fire was put out at around 3:30 p.m., crews will remain at the scene to ensure the fire doesn’t reignite.
“It breaks your heart,” said Santos. “The entire congregation is ruined with fire and smoke, and then holes in the roof, and then the office space itself has a lot of smoke damage and holes in the roof.”
Church was reportedly not in session at the time of the fire.
The cause of the fire is still under investigation.
“It’s unfortunate this won’t be in service for a while,” said Santos. “But we just have to celebrate being healthy, we have to celebrate being with your loved ones, and we’ll fix the church.”
Copyright 2025 KPTV-KPDX. All rights reserved.
The Oregon Ducks and the Texas Tech Red Raiders are set to face off against each other in the Capital One Orange Bowl on Jan. 1. As this College Football Playoff quarterfinal game gets closer, the betting odds are moving in the Ducks favor.
Oregon Favored By 2.5 Points
When it was confirmed that Oregon would be advancing to play Texas Tech after their first round playoff win over the James Madison Dukes, the betting line opened up on DraftKings Sportsbook with the Ducks as a 1.5-point favorite. Over the past few days, that number has increased a full point.
Oregon is now a 2.5-point favorite over the Red Raiders with odds of -125 to win outright. Texas Tech has odds to win outright of +105. The current over/under is at 52.5 points.
The movement indicates the public backing of coach Dan Lanning’s Ducks over the Big 12 Champion Red Raiders. Notably, ESPN’s matchup predictor gives Texas Tech a 51.6 percent chance to beat the Ducks.
MORE: Dan Lanning Reveals Oregon Ducks’ Christmas Plan Ahead Of Texas Tech
MORE: Tickets Surge For Oregon vs. Texas Tech In Historic Orange Bowl
MORE: Oregon Quarterback Dante Moore Becoming Biggest Question of NFL Draft
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Ducks Coming Off First Round Win
Oregon comes into this game with a 12-1 record. Their lone loss came to the undefeated No. 1 ranked Indiana Hoosiers.
The Ducks beat James Madison by a final score of 51-34 in the first round to advance to the quarterfinals. The Ducks earned the No. 5 ranking in the playoff bracket, meaning they were the highest ranked team to not receive one of the four first round byes to the quarterfinals.
This is different to what happened last season for Oregon, as they entered that year’s playoff as the No. 1 ranked team with a bye to the quarterfinals. It didn’t end well, as Oregon was bounced immediately in their first game against the Ohio State Buckeyes.
Could not getting a bye this time around change the Ducks’ fortunes for the better and set up a long playoff run?
Texas Tech’s Elite Defense
Texas Tech also enters this game with a record of 12-1. The Red Raiders last game was a Big 12 championship victory over the BYU Cougars. They earned the No. 4 ranking and first round bye to the quarterfinals. Their one loss this season was to the Arizona State Devils.
The Red Raiders are anchored by an elite defense that has allowed opponents to score an average of just 10.9 points per game. This is the third lowest points allowed in all of college football this season, behind only Indiana and Ohio State.
This defense will be a major challenge for Ducks’ quarterback Dante Moore and company. If Oregon wants to advance to the semi-finals, they will have to be on their “A game.”
Kickoff for this matchup is an early one for those on the west coast at 9 a.m. PT. The game will be broadcast on ESPN and announced by play-by-play announcer Joe Tessitore and color commentator Jesse Palmer.
- Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
- If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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