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Iowa vs. Iowa State score prediction by expert college football model

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Iowa vs. Iowa State score prediction by expert college football model


Three of the last four wins the Iowa State Cyclones have picked up in the Cy-Hawk Trophy series have come on the road, and they’ll look for a fourth in five tries against the No. 21 Iowa Hawkeyes in college football’s Week 2 action on Saturday.

The rivalry is split the last two seasons, and the Hawkeyes are coming off a 20-13 victory over the Cyclones in last year’s game, while Iowa State won a 10-7 decision the year before. Otherwise, Iowa has dominated in the last decade, winning 8 of the last 10 meetings.

Iowa’s infamously unproductive offense took what appeared to be an important step forward in this season’s opener, posting a 40-0 victory over Illinois State in which quarterback Cade McNamara passed for 251 yards and threw three touchdown passes, and the Hawkeye ground game amassed 241 yards and averaged 6 yards per carry while Kaleb Johnson scored twice.

Iowa State handled North Dakota in a 21-3 win last week, as quarterback Rocco Becht threw two touchdown passes and ran for a third, but the Cyclones’ rushing attack finished with just 86 yards while back Abu Sama ran 5 times for 36 yards.

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What can we expect in the matchup? For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of what to watch as Iowa and Iowa State re-new the Cy-Hawk Trophy series on Saturday.

The simulations favor the Hawkeyes to pull out a close win over the Cyclones this week.

SP+ predicts that Iowa will defeat Iowa State by a projected score of 21 to 14 and to win the game by an expected 7.8 points.

The model gives the Hawkeyes a 69 percent chance of outright victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

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Iowa is a 3 point favorite against Iowa State, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, which set the total at 35.5 points for the game.

FanDuel lists the moneyline odds for Iowa at -162 and for Iowa State +134.

If you’re using this projection to bet on the game, you should take…

Other analytic tools suggest the Hawkeyes will take down the Cyclones this week.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

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Iowa is projected to win the game in 71.8 percent of the computer’s calculations, while Iowa State comes out the expected winner in the remaining 28.2 percent of sims.

The model projects Iowa will be 6.5 points better than Iowa State on the same field in both teams’ current composition, enough to cover the spread.

Iowa will win 7.7 games this season, according to the index, which projects the team has a 2.4 percent chance to win the Big Ten championship.

The model projects Iowa State will win 6.2 games this year and has a 1.5 percent shot to win the Big 12 championship.

When: Sat., Sept. 7
Time: 2:30 p.m. Central
TV: CBS network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks

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Iowa State wrestling adds ex-Hawkeye Dru Ayala from transfer portal

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Iowa State wrestling adds ex-Hawkeye Dru Ayala from transfer portal


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Iowa State wrestling has added another lightweight through the transfer portal, earning the commitment of former Hawkeye Dru Ayala on Wednesday, May 13.

Ayala has been with the Hawkeyes for two seasons, with an 11-4 record as a true freshman and not competing in 2025-26. The 125-pounder will have at least three years of eligibility remaining.

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“Grateful for where I’ve been, excited for where I’m going. Go Cyclones,” Ayala said in an Instagram post.

Before his time in Iowa, Ayala was a four-time state medalist with Fort Dodge. He made the state semifinals all four years and had a 153-16 record. He is the brother of former Hawkeye wrestler Drake Ayala, who recently accepted a position as an assistant coach with the Cyclones.

Iowa State has had multiple major departures with Anthony Echemendia, Christian Castillo, Daniel Herrera and others heading to the transfer portal. As a result, the Cyclones have been busy adding to the roster, with Dru Ayala joining Ayden Smith (Rutgers), Brayden Thompson (Oklahoma State) and Rin Sakamoto (Oklahoma State).

Eli McKown covers high school sports and wrestling for the Des Moines Register. Contact him at Emckown@gannett.com. Follow him on Twitter at @EMcKown23.

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Candidates for Warren County’s Iowa House District 22 tackle issues

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Candidates for Warren County’s Iowa House District 22 tackle issues


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Two candidates are running for the Iowa House District 22 seat encompassing Norwalk, Carlisle, Cumming and Martensdale.

First-term Republican Rep. Samantha Fett faces a challenge from Democrat Rory Taylor, who she defeated in 2024 to fill the open seat.

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Both candidates are unopposed for their party’s nomination.

To help voters, the Des Moines Register sent questions to all federal, statewide and Des Moines area legislative candidates running for political office this year. Their answers have been lightly edited for length and clarity.

The primary election is scheduled for June 2.

Click below to see learn more about the candidates and where they stand on key issues:

| Bios | Top issue | Education | Taxes | Cancer rates | Eminent domain | Budget deficits |

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  • Political party: Republican.
  • Age: 46.
  • Residence: Carlisle.
  • Occupation: Marketing and communications director for Inspired Life Inc.
  • Education: Bachelor’s degree in journalism, Drake University.
  • Political experience: Moms for Liberty – Warren County, Carlisle School Board member 2019-2021, Warren County Central Committee member, Capitol Region Republican Women, Iowa Federation of Republican Women, National Federation of Republican Women.

Who is Rory Taylor?

  • Political party: Democrat.
  • Age: 65.
  • Residence: Norwalk.
  • Occupation: Retired.
  • Education: Bachelor’s degree in history, minor in political science, Iowa State University.
  • Political experience: Bevington City Council.

Fett (R): My top issue is strengthening Iowa’s education system. I believe parents should have a leading voice in their children’s education because families want meaningful options. I support high academic standards, safe learning environments and policies that protect children while ensuring every student has the opportunity to succeed. I will work on policies that continue to focus on all students reaching their potential through measurable, objective achievements and by expanding and enhancing the supply of creative education. Education shapes the next generation, and it remains my highest priority.

Taylor (D): Water quality in our state. We need to increase monitoring the water sources we use for our drinking water. Our nitrate levels are in direct correlation to our cancer rates in the state. We need to work with our farmers to mitigate the problem, not blame them for it!

Taylor (D): We need to restructure the voucher program. Students with financial needs could be accommodated, but not the wealthiest of our population. We need to provide more funding for our AEAs and improvement in teacher pay. Bring back our industrial arts programs.

Fett (R): I support policies that put students and families first. That includes strengthening parental rights, expanding educational options and making sure all education models — public schools, homeschool, private and public charter schools — can succeed. I also support a balanced approach to digital learning, since excessive screen time can affect attention and academic progress. I believe Iowa should set developmentally appropriate limits on digital instruction and prioritize strong foundational skills like reading, writing and real classroom connection so every student has the opportunity to thrive.

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Fett (R): I support Iowa’s recent tax changes because the state was collecting far more than it needed. With full reserves, a $2 billion ending balance, and over $4 billion in the Taxpayer Relief Fund, returning money to Iowans is the responsible choice. The 3.8% rate keeps Iowa competitive, and temporary revenue dips were planned for. Looking ahead, I would support additional tax law changes that continue this philosophy: keeping government efficient, ensuring strong reserves and returning excess dollars to taxpayers.

Taylor (D): I do not support all the tax changes. I believe moving Iowa’s tax structure for both corporate and income to be more progressive. This would raise taxes on corporations, higher-income individuals and lower taxes on lower-income individuals.

Taylor (D): Water quality standards: Strengthen, enforce and monitor water quality standards to reduce carcinogens like nitrates and PFAS from agricultural runoff.

Fett (R): I support practical, targeted actions that reduce known risks and strengthen research. Iowa is a major radon hotspot, and radon exposure is a leading cause of lung cancer. House File 2297 is an important step requiring passive radon mitigation. A cost-effective protection helps ensure families aren’t unknowingly exposed to dangerous levels. I support the pediatric cancer research bill, which provides dedicated funding to advance research and improve outcomes for Iowa children. This investment and reducing environmental risks give Iowa a stronger and more effective path to lowering cancer rates. Chemical regulation: Improve monitoring of pesticides and fertilizer application, ensuring public health is central to agricultural policy. Radon mitigation: Fund widespread radon testing. Protect Medicaid expansion, which supports cancer screening and care for over 180,000 Iowans. HPV vaccine access: Protect access to human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccinations to prevent future cancer.

Fett (R): Protecting private property rights is essential. Based on that standard, I do not support using eminent domain for carbon capture pipelines, as these projects do not meet the threshold of traditional public use infrastructure and raise significant concerns for landowners. I have consistently opposed the misuse of eminent domain and will continue standing with Iowa landowners on this issue.

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Taylor (D): Public projects, such as infrastructure (highways, bridges) and utilities. And as long as there is fair compensation and due process.

Taylor (D): Voucher program would be a start. And the tax cuts that have been made haven’t stimulated the economy as the Republican Party has suggested they would. I don’t see any other cuts I would suggest. The key is tax revenue, and what we have in place now isn’t working!

Fett (R): Iowa’s recent revenue dip was fully expected when income taxes were reduced. I support a disciplined, responsible approach to budgeting that ensures we fund key priorities like public schools, nursing homes and public safety while still allowing Iowans to keep more of what they earn. The Taxpayer Relief Fund was created specifically to manage temporary revenue decreases during tax reform, providing stability without jeopardizing essential services. My focus is on maintaining disciplined budgeting so Iowa continues meeting its obligations without over taxing families.

Read more about the midterm candidates at: https://www.desmoinesregister.com/news/elections/.

Marissa Payne covers the Iowa Statehouse and politics for the Register. Reach her by email at mjpayne@registermedia.com. Follow her on X at @marissajpayne.

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Iowa adds 87-year-old Tom Moore as senior consultant and offensive adviser

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Iowa adds 87-year-old Tom Moore as senior consultant and offensive adviser


IOWA CITY, Iowa — After a 65-year football coaching career, longtime NFL offensive coordinator Tom Moore’s most recent stop comes full circle — the University of Iowa.

Before Moore coached Hall of Fame receivers Lynn Swann and John Stallworth to Super Bowl titles in the late 1970s or guided quarterback Peyton Manning to multiple MVP awards, he played quarterback at Iowa in the 1950s and became a graduate assistant in 1961-62. Now, the 87-year-old Moore will work as a senior consultant to coach Kirk Ferentz and as an offensive adviser.

“I have known Tom Moore for over a decade and am thrilled that he has agreed to join our program in an advisory role,” Ferentz said in a statement. “Coach Moore has had a long and very successful career in football. He was a player at Iowa, coached at the collegiate level and spent many years working alongside Hall of Fame coaches in the National Football League. I am grateful that a four-time Super Bowl champion will share his wisdom and perspectives with us — coaches and players.”

Moore played for Hall of Fame coach Forest Evashevski and was a backup on the 1960 team that tied for the Big Ten title and was named national champion by three different outlets. Following his time as a graduate assistant, Moore spent two years in the United States Army before working for more than a decade as a college assistant. He moved to the NFL in 1977 as the Pittsburgh Steelers receivers coach and later as offensive coordinator under Chuck Noll.

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Following stints with the Vikings, Lions and Saints, Moore became the Colts’ offensive coordinator in 1998, where he worked with Manning and helped Indianapolis reach two Super Bowls, winning one title. After stops with the Jets, Titans and Cardinals, Moore spent the last seven years as an offensive consultant with Tampa Bay, where he worked with Tom Brady to win another Super Bowl following the 2020 season.

Moore, who was an honorary team captain at Iowa for a game in 2018, has frequently spent time with the Iowa program and offered recommendations when attending practice. When current New York Giants running back Tyrone Tracy, at the time a wide receiver, carried the ball on the scout team, Moore suggested Tracy make a permanent position switch. Tracy declined the move until his final year at Purdue, and he has since led the Giants in rushing in his first two seasons in the NFL.

At Iowa, Moore will join his former Colts protégé, Jay Norvell, who coaches running backs. Norvell worked under Moore as wide receivers coach from 1998 until 2001.

“You talk about a guy that’s forgot more football than most people know,” Norvell said about Moore. “It’s just a complete blessing.”



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