Montana
National Republicans eye U.S. Senate seat in Montana as central to gaining majority
Republican presidential nominee and former President Donald Trump shakes hands with U.S. Sen. Steve Daines, R-Mont., at the National Republican Senatorial Committee building on June 13, 2024, in Washington, D.C. Trump was visiting Capitol Hill to meet with Senate Republicans and participate in additional meetings. (Photo by Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)
WASHINGTON — Montana U.S. Sen. Steve Daines, who is in charge of flipping the chamber from blue to red this November, said Tuesday he expects his home state will play a key role in ensuring a Republican majority come January.
Daines, who is chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said that of the four toss-up states that will determine control of the Senate, he believes Montana is the most likely to choose a new senator over the incumbent, Democrat Jon Tester.
“Of all of the states we’re currently battling, it’d be the most likely pick-up right now, if you graded on a curve,” Daines said.
Republicans expect to gain the West Virginia Senate seat currently controlled by independent Joe Manchin III, who is retiring. But, they’ll need one more pick up to hold at least 51 seats in the 100-member chamber and secure the majority.
The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter categorizes Ohio, Michigan, Montana and Nevada’s races as toss-ups, while the other Senate races are rated as at least leaning toward Democrats or Republicans.
Electoral trends
Daines said that he expects the November elections will follow a trend from 2016 and 2020, in which the winner of the Senate race very closely tracks with which presidential candidate wins in their state.
“The only exception, of 69 races in 2016 and 2020, with Trump on the ballot, was Susan Collins — where Joe Biden won Maine, but Susan Collins won the Senate race,” Daines said, referring to former President Donald Trump, President Joe Biden and the current Republican senator from Maine. “History shows in a presidential year, these races will all start to track by the time we get to the end of October, and then on Election Day, importantly, we’ll be tracking pretty close with the presidential ballot.”
Daines, who was sitting for a panel interview with members of the Regional Reporters Association at the National Republican Senatorial Committee offices in Washington, D.C., said the party is applying the lessons learned from 2022 to this year’s campaigns.
Democrats targeted their messaging “effectively” two years ago, while Republicans had “candidates that were able to win primary elections, but were not as appealing in a general,” Daines said.
“And that’s why one of the key strategies here at the NRSC was to be intentional in primaries,” Daines said, adding he wanted fewer “wounds and battle scars” for the GOP candidates who won their primaries as they went into the general election campaign.
Daines said that he doesn’t expect reproductive rights and issues around democracy to be as central to how voters cast ballots this year as compared to 2022.
“In ‘22 the Democrats mentioned a lot on abortion and a lot on January 6 and the threat to democracy,” Daines said. “I think both of those issues are going to be less powerful in the ‘24 election.”
On abortion specifically, he said that GOP Senate candidates are “messaging well on this back in their respective states.”
Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spokesperson Tommy Garcia said in a written statement that “Senate campaigns are candidate vs candidate battles, and Senate Democrats will win because we have the better candidates in every single battleground.”
“Steve Daines’ failure to vet his candidates has saddled Senate Republicans with deeply flawed recruits who are embroiled in a never ending series of scandals: they’ve been caught lying about their biographies, face vulnerabilities stemming from their finances and are running on a platform of deeply unpopular policies,” Garcia added.
Montana focus
Daines said he expects Montana voters will elect Republican candidate Tim Sheehy over Tester in November, citing data from former election years as well as how recent transplants to the state have registered to vote.
“We’ve had a net migration of center-right voters to Montana since Jon Tester was last on the ballot,” Daines said. “He won by 18,000 votes against Matt Rosendale back in 2018. We’ve had 100,000 new voters move to Montana since 2018. If you look at the voter rolls, by a 2-to-1 margin, they’re Republicans.”
Daines said he refers to these transplants as “COWs” since they are leaving California, Oregon and Washington states to live in Montana — the first letters of each state. He also says they aren’t looking to bring the blue-leaning politics of their former states to their new home.
“These are refugees, not missionaries,” Daines said. “They’re moving to Montana to join us, not to change us. And that’s how that’s shifting the political numbers in Montana; just mathematically, it becomes increasingly difficult for Jon Tester to win.”
Daines said that mid-July polling in the race mirrors what he experienced ahead of his last re-election.
“The polling data that we are seeing with Tim Sheehy matches exactly where I was polling with Steve Bullock by the same pollster four years ago,” Daines said, referring to the former Democratic governor who ran for Senate in 2020. “And we ended up winning by 10 points.”
When that’s combined with the millions of dollars that Democrats have spent on Tester’s re-election campaign, Daines said the odds are good for Republicans.
“(Senate Majority Leader Chuck) Schumer and Tester have poured $45 million of negative ads on Tim Sheehy since last November,” Daines said. “We’ve never seen anything like it in any Senate race in the history of the United States that early, that much money spent. And the fact that Tim Sheehy is tied up right now on public polls is quite remarkable.”
DSCC Chairman Gary Peters, a Michigan Democrat, told States Newsroom on Tuesday that he expects Tester will win reelection.
“He’s wrong. He’s not going to flip Montana. Jon Tester is a strong candidate. He’s authentic. He’s running against a seriously flawed candidate that the Republicans have put forward. Clearly they didn’t do any vetting before they recruited him to run in Montana,” Peters said. “And people in Montana, want someone who’s authentic, has lived in the state and understands the challenges of people in Montana. And that’s Jon Tester.”
Nevada battleground
Daines also has hopes that the GOP can pick up Nevada, where Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen is facing a challenge from Republican candidate Sam Brown.
During the 2022 Senate race, he noted that Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto defeated Republican candidate Adam Laxalt by about 8,000 votes.
“It was the tightest Senate race that cycle. That’s four votes per precinct,” Daines said. “That’s not lost, certainly on both sides of the ledger.”
Had Laxalt been running during a presidential election year, when rural voters tend to turn out in higher numbers than during midterm election years, Daines said Laxalt would have won a seat in the Senate.
“Looking at more recent polling numbers in Nevada, Rosen’s ballot number is very low. She’s in the low 40s. That’s a big warning sign for an incumbent,” Daines said. “It also shows there’s great upside for Sam Brown at the moment.”
Michigan race
In Michigan, which presents another chance for Republicans to gain and potentially grow a Senate majority, Daines said he isn’t worried about negative ads from the Republican primary impacting their prospects during the general election.
“You always worry about — whether you’re on the Democratic or Republican side — damaging primaries. And something that we have done at the NRSC in this particular election cycle, is to be intentional about getting behind candidates early in primaries,” Daines said. “And Michigan’s an example of that.”
The NRSC and Trump both endorsed GOP candidate Mike Rogers early, he said.
“And so far in this election cycle, there’s been $250 million less spent in Republican primaries versus last cycle,” Daines said. “Democrats have spent $60 million more in their primaries versus last cycle. And in part that’s due to a strategy that we had to get behind candidates early and try to minimize primary battles.”
Daines wasn’t too concerned about recent polling that shows Democrat Elissa Slotkin ahead of Rogers in a likely general election match up.
“It’s not a new phenomenon,” Daines said. “Generally, we run behind.”
Maryland, Minnesota, New Jersey hopes
Daines has hope for GOP candidates in other states that traditionally send Democrats to the Senate.
In Maryland, he expects former Gov. Larry Hogan has a chance to defeat Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks for the open seat.
When Republicans polled the chances for Hogan before he entered the race, they showed he had higher favorability than when he left office, Daines said.
And while Daines said he knows that Kamala Harris will likely win Maryland by “25 points or more,” he still expects Hogan will have a strong campaign.
“That’s not a new phenomenon for Larry Hogan. And so he will run in this maverick kind of lane,” Daines said, noting that Hogan has distanced himself from Trump.
Daines sought to put a little bit of distance between the NRSC and the Aug. 13 Republican Senate primary in Minnesota when asked about the candidates, though he said he stood by a previous comment that Royce White can’t win the GOP primary or the general election.
“We’ll wait and see how the primary shakes out in Minnesota. Again, it’s coming up here pretty soon, mid-August,” Daines said. “But yeah, I think Joe Fraser is going to be a more electable candidate, certainly in the general.”
Whichever GOP candidate wins the primary will face Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar in the general election, fighting for a seat that is rated as “solid Democratic” by The Cook Political Report.
New Jersey Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez’s recent conviction has also led Daines to not entirely count the state out, though the odds are long.
Curtis Bashaw, he said, is a “very strong candidate.”
“It’s a race we’re keeping an eye on,” Daines said. “Obviously, whenever you have an open seat, it’s an opportunity. And with Menendez’s problems that doesn’t help overall.”
Menendez isn’t seeking re-election and will resign from the U.S. Senate in August. Democratic Rep. Andy Kim, who was pictured cleaning up litter inside the U.S. Capitol following the Jan. 6 attack, was elected as the Democratic nominee.
The Cook Political Report rates the race as “Solid Democrat.”
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MISSOULA — Four out of five members of Montana’s Public Service Commission were in a federal courtroom in Missoula Thursday morning, as the PSC’s former president challenges the disciplinary action taken against him earlier this year. Now, newly released documents are shedding more light on to what led up to this point.
(Watch the video for a closer look at the case.)
New documents shed light Montana PSC dispute
Commissioner Brad Molnar has sued President Jeff Welborn, Vice President Jennifer Fielder and Commissioner Annie Bukacek – the three PSC members who voted in May to require him to work remotely, after an investigation into complaints about his workplace conduct. Molnar has claimed he is being unfairly punished for constitutionally protected speech, and he asked Senior U.S District Judge Donald Molloy to allow him to return to the PSC offices.
Matthew Monforton, Molnar’s attorney, told the judge that barring Molnar from the building was limiting his ability to do his job.
“He has not been officially kicked out of office, but his voice has clearly been diminished,” said Monforton.
But Natasha Jones, an attorney representing the other three commissioners, said the findings were about behavior, not just speech, and that the PSC’s action was a reasonable response.
“These are serious concerns about a pattern of conduct that has made employees quit,” she said.
Jonathon Ambarian
On Tuesday, Molloy ordered the release of redacted versions of two full investigative reports into Molnar’s conduct – more than 100 pages of documents. Monforton had moved for the full reports to be made public, and Molloy ruled attorneys for the other PSC members hadn’t shown a compelling reason to keep the documents under seal as long as the names of people involved in the investigation were obscured.
While the names remained redacted in the investigation reports, the attorneys for Welborn, Fielder and Bukacek also filed additional documents – including a public declaration from Bukacek and from former PSC executive director Alana Lake, providing information about their allegations against Molnar.
The two reports, from an outside investigator, cover Molnar’s alleged actions over two periods: the first from February to August 2025, and the second from August to October 2025. The investigation began after the first formal complaint, filed by Bukacek in May 2025 – though the reports say employees had been bringing up concerns about Molnar’s behavior informally for several months prior.
Bukacek’s complaint claimed Molnar had repeatedly made what she called “sexualized and demeaning comments.” The examples she cited included saying the PSC should replace “Taco Tuesdays” with “Topless Tuesdays,” reminiscing about watching girls in bikinis as a teenager, and commenting about the beauty of women in areas of China who didn’t get “old and wrinkly.”
In her declaration, Bukacek also claimed Molnar had “maliciously disseminated false information” about her and “engaged in behavior that was dismissive, derisive and otherwise abusive.”
“My primary concern now is not for my safety nor my feelings, but for the rest of the staff who may not have the temperament to speak up or may feel too intimidated to speak up given concerns over job security,” Bukacek said in her declaration.
MTN News
The investigators determined Molnar had violated the PSC’s code of conduct by making comments of a sexual nature, and that it appeared his behavior had continued for some time after he was warned about it. They also found he had behaved unprofessionally and in a belittling manner toward Bukacek, though they said Bukacek herself had at times used “language that could be considered inappropriate” in emails to staff or other commissioners. Bukacek told MTN she “readily self corrected” any behaviors that were brought to her attention.
The investigation also found a violation in connection with a complaint from a PSC staff member, who said he “felt bullied” by Molnar when the commissioner sent an email complaining about his team not being “people with competence.”
However, much of the first report and the entire second report was focused on conduct after the initial complaints, when Molnar was accused of retaliating against people who participated in the investigation. Lake said in her declaration that she saw “an immediate and significant change in his behavior toward staff involved in the process.” She claimed he said he would use an attorney and private investigator to go after people who filed complaints, and she accused him of publicly criticizing her in interviews and removing her job responsibilities because of her handling of the investigation.
Lake said Molnar’s actions led to “declining morale within the agency,” undermined staff members’ ability to do their jobs and damaged her reputation. She said that led her to resign as executive director.
“I believe no employee should be forced to choose between reporting misconduct and protecting their career, reputation, or personal well-being,” she said in her declaration.
Lake has since become Helena city manager.
Jonathon Ambarian
The report said there was evidence to show Molnar had retaliated, including by “making disparaging statements about investigation participants” including Lake, by sending an email warning he could file complaints of his own against people involved, and by taking other actions investigators said could dissuade employees from reporting behavior in the future.
Monforton said during Thursday’s hearing that the initial comments Bukacek complained about were jokes Molnar had admitted were inappropriate, that he regretted saying them, and that he hasn’t made any similar comments in about a year. But he argued the vast majority of the findings against Molnar were about retaliation – and that those were primarily based on speech that the other commissioners don’t have the right to interfere with.
Monforton said it’s unreasonable to punish Molnar for what he said in the July news conference where he announced he was under investigation, in interviews with the media or in commission meetings. He said Molnar’s conduct doesn’t rise to the level of actual retaliation.
“This is an elected official, engaging in speech in his forum,” Monforton said.
He said Molnar may have made harsh comments toward staff, but that he had the right to raise objections about the way the agency does business.
Jonathon Ambarian
Monforton also argued the retaliation claims no longer justify keeping Molnar out of the office, since Welborn, Fielder and Bukacek voted to remove him as president in October and he no longer has the authority he’s accused of misusing. He said there haven’t been further complaints about his behavior since that time.
“We’re not asking for the moon and stars, we’re asking for the status quo as it existed for the last seven months,” he said.
Jones said there is enough evidence to show Molnar would have been punished regardless of whether any protected speech was excluded.
“This is not about a couple of jokes,” she said.
Jones said Molnar made maliciously false statements about people like Lake, and that type of statement isn’t covered by free speech protections.
She also said Molnar’s exclusion from the PSC offices is temporary, and that the PSC will reconsider whether to let him return if he apologizes for his actions, accepts the agency’s code of conduct and undergoes training.
Molloy indicated he saw indications that there was “acrimony” on both sides of the situation, and said he was skeptical it would be resolved easily.
“It would be nice if instead of juvenile behavior, there was professional behavior,” he said.
However, the judge said there was an avenue for Molnar to pursue if he wanted to reach a resolution.
Molloy took no immediate action Thursday. He told the parties he would rule as quickly as he could.
Carrie Gilbertson has been executive director of Cancer Support Community Montana for just under two months, stepping into the role in April with more than 15 years of nonprofit experience and a lifetime of Montana roots.
The organization provides psychosocial and mental health support to anyone affected by cancer — not just those with a diagnosis, but also family members and others walking alongside them.
WATCH: Meet the new leader of Cancer Support Community Montana 🎗️
Cancer Support Community Montana names new executive director
“This mission of providing psycho-social supports and mental health supports for anyone impacted by cancer, not just that person who has the diagnosis, but also family members, anyone who is walking alongside someone as they experience that often scary diagnosis, that’s just something that’s important to me,” Gilbertson said.
Gilbertson’s role extends beyond the Bozeman office. Cancer Support Community Montana’s Missoula location is already up and running, and a Helena location is expected to be operating soon. Each presents its own set of challenges.
“Each hospital is different. They might have different resources. Their social workers might be connecting to things in a different way. So understanding what those hospitals need, what different participants need in each community, is going to be different just because the communities are different, resources are different,” Gilbertson said.
The Bozeman office has been operating for more than 20 years, providing a foundation that supports the organization’s broader statewide efforts.
“I think this is a crew that looks at what does this community need what do our participants need what are some of the changing landscapes in cancer care what things are the gaps that we see that we can maybe just jump right in and you know let’s see if we can provide that for people so that’s something I really love about this crew that I work with and just this mission that there is some flexibility in being able to adjust and adapt as we learn more,” Gilbertson said.
Those adaptations show up in unexpected ways. The organization converts its parking lot into a pickleball court every Friday morning.
“I didn’t know there was a pickleball court. I pulled in actually with my daughter pulled in and she was is that pickleball court and I was like oh, it kind of looks like it is so yeah that’s fun, every Friday morning we clear out the parking lot and put up the net and I haven’t played yet I’ve been watching just to kind of see how that game works but they take it pretty seriously,” Gilbertson said.
This story was reported on-air by a journalist and has been converted to this platform with the assistance of AI. Our editorial team verifies all reporting on all platforms for fairness and accuracy.
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