At this same point in the election cycle four years ago, Joe Biden was ahead of Donald Trump by 9 percentage points among Wisconsin voters in a two-way presidential matchup. Now, just days after the Republican National Convention ended in Milwaukee, a new Fox News survey shows Wisconsinites give the advantage to Trump over Vice President Kamala Harris — by 1 point. 

Harris receives 49% support to Trump’s 50%. In April, it was 48% each for Biden and Trump, and it was also tied in January (47% apiece).  In June 2020, Biden was at 49% to Trump’s 40%.

Trump’s edge is mainly due to an expanded 14-point lead among men, up from an 8-point lead over Biden in April. He is also favored over Harris among White men without a college degree (by 20 points), rural voters (+15), and White voters (+2).

Harris receives a bit more support among Democrats (96%) than Trump gets among Republicans (93%), but he makes up the difference by having a 4-point advantage among Independents. 

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Some of Harris’ best groups include urban voters (+19 over Trump), Whites with a college degree (+18), and suburban women (+13). Her numbers roughly match or are a bit higher than Biden’s were in April among Whites without a college degree (+5), Independents (+5), voters under 35 (+4), women (+3), Democrats (+1), Whites (+1), and those ages 65 and over (-1).

The biggest shift is among “double haters” (voters with unfavorable views of both Trump and Biden). Trump was ahead by 1 point in April, but they now favor Harris by 25 points. There are too few Harris-Trump double haters to breakout by vote preference. 

Trump is favored by 3 points among new voters (haven’t voted in four most recent general elections), and union households go for him by 2 points, which is different from what we see in a couple of other northern industrial states. Union voters prefer Harris by 6 points in Michigan and by 15 points in Minnesota. 

Biden’s personal favorable rating was negative by 10 points in April and now he’s underwater by 12.  It’s the reverse for Trump, who went from being underwater by 10 points to negative 5 in the new survey. Harris is more popular than both at 49% favorable and 49% unfavorable. JD Vance’s favorability is negative by 7 points, while 15% are unable to rate him. 

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Fifteen percent of Wisconsin voters say they are getting ahead financially, up from 11% six months ago. Still, most continue to feel they are holding steady (41%) or falling behind (43%). 

By far, the economy will be the deciding issue this fall.  It’s the top priority for 37%, trailed by abortion and immigration at 15% each. All other issues are in the single digits.

Majorities of those prioritizing the economy and immigration back Trump (by 38 and 81 points respectively), while those putting abortion as their top issue prefer Harris by 78 points.

“This poll shows Harris in a slightly stronger position in Wisconsin than Biden based on personal favorability,” says Democratic pollster Chris Anderson, whose company Beacon Research conducts Fox News surveys along with Republican Daron Shaw.  “However, with many voters feeling strained financially and union households breaking for Trump, she has work to do convincing voters they’ll be better off continuing with a Democrat in the White House.”

In a potential 5-way race, Harris and Trump tie at 46% each, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. receiving 5%, and Jill Stein and Cornel West at 1% each.  Support for Kennedy was 9% in April.

Kennedy takes more support from Trump (6%) than Harris (2%), but it evens out because the other candidates also take from her (3%).

The large 75% approval of Biden withdrawing from the presidential race is widespread, as it includes 88% of Democrats and two-thirds of Republicans (65%) and Independents (69%).

That consensus disappears on the issue of Biden finishing his term: 92% of Democrats and 58% Independents think he should, while 57% of Republicans think he should resign.  Overall, two-thirds think he should stick around. 

In 2020, Biden won Wisconsin by 20,682 votes, less than one percentage point. Trump’s 2016 victory was also by less than a point (22,748 votes). 

Poll-pourri

In the senate race, Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin leads likely Republican challenger Eric Hovde by a 54-43% margin, running 5 points ahead of Harris’ support in the presidential race. (The Wisconsin primary is August 13.)

More Trump supporters are ticket splitters, as 83% of his backers favor Hovde, while 96% of Harris supporters go for Baldwin. 

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Overall, three-quarters of Wisconsin voters say they are extremely motivated to vote in the presidential election, and they split 50% Harris vs. 49% Trump. That’s because slightly more Harris supporters (76%) than Trump supporters (73%) say they are extremely motivated.

Fully 84% of Wisconsin Democrats want Harris to replace Biden as their party’s nominee — no other candidate gets more than 2% support.  

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Conducted July 22-24, 2024 under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News Poll includes interviews with a sample of 1,046 Wisconsin registered voters randomly selected from a statewide voter file. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (127) and cellphones (649) or completed the survey online after receiving a text (270). Results based on the full sample have a margin of sampling error of ±3 percentage points. Sampling error associated with subgroup results is higher. In addition to sampling error, question wording and order can influence results. Weights are generally applied to age, race, education, and area variables to ensure the demographics are representative of the registered voter population. Sources for developing weight targets include the American Community Survey, Fox News Voter Analysis, and voter file data.

Fox News’ Victoria Balara contributed to this report.