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Trump faces a tighter race with Kamala Harris set to replace Biden, experts say

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Trump faces a tighter race with Kamala Harris set to replace Biden, experts say

US Vice President Kamala Harris holds a campaign event that is her seventh visit to North Carolina this year and 15th trip to the state since taking office in Fayetteville NC, United States on July 18, 2024.

Peter Zay | Anadolu | Getty Images

President Joe Biden’s endorsement of Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee for president has set the stage for a much tighter and uncertain race in November, according to some experts

Biden stepped down from the race Sunday as top Democrats pressured him to drop out following a disastrous debate performance and as Republican nominee Donald Trump was leading in the polls.

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The Democrats had been headed for a “landslide defeat” in November, but now, they stand a chance, said Ian Bremmer, President and Founder of Eurasia Group.

“They’ve turned [this race] around, and President Biden has given the Democrats a fighting chance,” he told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Monday.

Harris now finds herself on a glidepath to the Democratic nomination, though she will still need to win a majority of delegates ahead of the Democratic National Convention in Chicago in August. 

While some other contenders might throw their hat into the race, “it is very clear that Kamala Harris is the prohibitive favorite to become the nominee,” Bremmer said. 

If Harris wins the nomination, she would offer the Democrats a “total reset,” Steven Okun, founder and CEO of APAC Advisors, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia.”

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“If the Democrats can be unified, come out of this convention, speaking with one voice, energized, excited, then they have a good chance to win in November,” he said.

Allan Lichtman, a presidential historian who has correctly predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1984, told CNBC’s “Capital Connection that Harris would be in a “strong position to win the upcoming election” in a match-up with Trump.

He will wait until the Democratic convention to make his official prediction.

Harris said in a post on social media platform X that she was looking to work to “earn and win” the nomination while uniting Democrats.

How Harris helps Democrats

According to experts that spoke to CNBC, Harris comes with a number of advantages in comparison to her former running mate. 

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While Republicans have been gaining ground on the economy, inflation, and immigration fronts, abortion is a salient issue where she will have an edge, Okun said. Harris has been outspoken on reproductive issues as the first women Vice President.

“The fact is that Biden and Trump are too old to be running and serving for another four years, and this is now the top vulnerability for Trump,” said Eurasia’s Bremmer.  

A recent poll showed that some 85% of the population believed Biden was too old to serve another four years. The same poll found that 60% of Americans thought Trump was too old.

Democrats have good chance of winning if they're united and speak with one voice: McLarty Associates

“You see a lot of enthusiasm for Harris, a younger, more vibrant, more energetic former prosecutor that could certainly perform extremely well on the debate stage,” Bremmer added. 

Bremmer pointed out that Harris also has some weaknesses. She “isn’t super likable as a retail politician … That’s been a vulnerability for her.”  There are also some risks associated with running as a woman — a daughter of an Indian mother and Jamaican father — in today’s America, he added.

On the other hand, she may be better-positioned than Biden to drive out certain key demographics, including “women, young people and black voters, Charles Myers, Signum Global policy Founder and CEO, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia.”

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“It’s a whole new race. There’s a new candidate with an enormous amount of unity and enthusiasm behind her,” he said.

Greater uncertainty for markets 

Markets had increasingly been pricing in a Trump victory, with his presidency expected to bring in tax cuts and a stronger tariff policy. 

However, according to Myers, the race has been thrown into “complete disarray” with Harris set to give Trump a “real run for his money.”

“I’d be very wary and a bit cautious on assuming that Trump is just going to sail to victory,” Myers said, adding that the names and asset classes associated with a Trump victory could be perceived as having short-term risk. 

Kamala Harris might be better for business and M&A than Biden, says Jim Cramer

Trump has said that Harris would be easier to defeat compared to Biden. 

By the Democratic Convention, Harris would have picked a running mate and likely wrapped up the nomination, at which point the momentum could see her pull ahead in the polls, Myers said. 

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According to Okun, two likely frontrunners for Harris’s running mate are Governor Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania and Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona, as they come from key swing states and are seen as more moderate.

If the Democrats are unable to unify factions within the party such as moderates and progressives, they will lose to a Republican party that is completely unified around Trump, he added.

CNBC’s Sonia Heng contributed to this report.

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Video: Mamdani Allies Sweep New York Primaries

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Video: Mamdani Allies Sweep New York Primaries

new video loaded: Mamdani Allies Sweep New York Primaries

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Mamdani Allies Sweep New York Primaries

Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s progressive coalition had a big night on Tuesday. Brad Lander, Darializa Avila Chevalier and Claire Valdez won their Democratic House primaries.

“I see a New York that we can all afford. I see a New York that truly invests in its babies, not bombs.” Reporter: “What’s the first thing you’re looking forward to doing in Congress?” “Well, tomorrow — thank you — I mean, tomorrow morning, you know, I’m going to be back at 26 Federal Plaza doing court watching, and we want to carry that into Congress as well.”

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Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s progressive coalition had a big night on Tuesday. Brad Lander, Darializa Avila Chevalier and Claire Valdez won their Democratic House primaries.

By Julie Yoon

June 24, 2026

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Appeals court allows Trump administration expanded use of speedy deportations

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Appeals court allows Trump administration expanded use of speedy deportations

A massive 826,780-square-foot warehouse sits illuminated Feb. 12, 2026, in the El Paso suburb of Socorro, Texas, that was recently purchased by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security for $122.8 million.

Morgan Lee/AP


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Morgan Lee/AP

A federal appeals court on Tuesday allowed the Trump administration to resume carrying out speedy deportations of undocumented migrants throughout the United States, not just near the border.

A divided three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit threw out a lower court decision that temporarily blocked President Donald Trump’s expanded use of expedited removal. The ruling was a big victory for the Republican administration, which views the expansion of so-called expedited removal as a key tool for carrying out its mass deportation policy.

Expedited removal — quick deportation without a chance to appear before a judge — has previously been applied to migrants arriving by sea or caught at or near the border shortly after crossing.

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In January, Trump expanded its use to undocumented migrants all over the United States. Immigration agents began whisking migrants away from courthouses where they had gone for immigration proceedings and then removing them from the country within days.

“The Trump administration’s push for fast-track deportations will subject people to an unfair and error-prone system,” Anand Balakrishnan, senior staff attorney with the ACLU’s Immigrants’ Rights Project, said in a statement.

Balakrishnan represented plaintiffs in arguments before the appellate panel and said its ruling “undermines the fundamental principle that people receive due process when the government seeks to deport them.”

DC Circuit Judge Justin R. Walker, one of the judges on the panel, said the plaintiffs had not shown the expanded use of expedited removal violated due process rights. Immigrants received notice of removal proceedings and were given a chance to respond, he wrote in his opinion.

Walker and the second judge in the majority, Neomi Rao, were appointed by Trump. The third judge on the panel was appointed by President Barack Obama, a Democrat.

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Walker said there was no requirement that the administration inform immigrants that they can avoid expedited removal if they can show they have been in the United States for more than two years.

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ODNI under Pulte fires 6 staff, sends 45 back to home agencies

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ODNI under Pulte fires 6 staff, sends 45 back to home agencies

Just over 50 career and political intelligence staff at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence have been removed from their roles since Bill Pulte became the agency’s acting director, Friday.

Six career and political intelligence staff were terminated and 45 were sent back to their home agencies, according to three sources familiar with the personnel moves.

Pulte has been asking deputies and other directors for suggestions about cuts. Some of the ODNI deputies pushed for more cuts, but Pulte said that the 51 was enough for now, one of the sources said.

One source characterized the cuts as thoughtful and methodical. No staffers have been removed from the counterterrorism group.

No further firings are planned for now, two of the sources said.

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The cuts follow hundreds of staff reductions last year by former Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, who stepped down last week. Last year’s planned downsizing sought to bring the office’s headcount from 2,000 to around 1,300.

President Trump has pushed for further cuts, directing Pulte to “execute the immediate and needed downsizing of the office” in a Truth Social post earlier this month.

The office is charged with overseeing the country’s intelligence agencies and helping them coordinate with each other. It was created in response to the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, which investigators widely believe was preceded by a failure of intelligence agencies to share information. 

Since then, Gabbard and some lawmakers have argued the ODNI has become bloated and has added more bureaucracy to the intelligence community — worsening a problem it was created in part to resolve. 

Republican Sen. Tom Cotton of Arkansas, who chairs the Senate Intelligence Committee, said earlier this month the office has “grown far beyond its original mandate.”  Many of the office’s staff hail from other intelligence agencies but have been detailed to ODNI, and Cotton argued large numbers of them should be returned to their “home agencies.”

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Sen. Mark Warner and Rep. Jim Himes, the top Democrats on the Senate and House intelligence panels, warned Pulte against making large-scale staff cuts, calling it an inappropriate course of action for an acting official without national security experience.

“While there is room to consider responsible reductions to ODNI’s workforce, any large cuts would follow on a substantial downsizing that has already occurred in 2025 and risk jeopardizing the mission of an organization explicitly created after 9/11 to prevent any future such terrorist attack,” the two Democrats wrote in a joint statement.

After Gabbard announced in May that she would resign from the post, Mr. Trump said he would install Pulte, a housing finance official, as acting director of national intelligence. He later nominated Jay Clayton, the top federal prosecutor in Manhattan, to serve as Senate-confirmed director.

Mr. Trump’s pick for acting director of national intelligence, who assumed the role on Friday, has sparked intense pushback in Congress. Democrats, and some Republicans, questioned the selection due to his lack of national security experience. 

Democratic Rep. Jason Crow of Colorado said Sunday he’s worried that “Americans are at risk” with Pulte serving as DNI “because we have someone who’s incompetent at the head of this agency,” in an interview on “Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan.”

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In addition to Pulte’s lack of national security experience, Democrats have railed against the pick for his role in investigations into Mr. Trump’s political foes. Crow, who serves on the House Intelligence Committee, said he’s “obviously concerned that this is somebody who’s a political attack dog, and his single biggest qualification is that he’s loyal to Donald Trump and is willing to go after Donald Trump’s enemies.” But he said more immediately, he’s concerned about Americans’ safety.

“This is a really important position. This sits atop our intelligence agencies, and by law, Congress mandated that this person have significant intelligence experience because they have to make sure that we’re keeping Americans safe, which is not what Bill Pulte is capable of doing,” Crow said. 

Since Pulte’s selection, Democrats have declined to extend Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, which grants intelligence agencies broad authority to spy on overseas targets, causing the legal provision to expire earlier this month

And as Senate GOP leaders tried to bring an end to the impasse by moving to quickly confirm Clayton as permanent director of national intelligence, the president abruptly called for Clayton’s confirmation hearing to be canceled last week.

Talks on extending FISA Section 702 were already strained, with some members of both parties pushing for stricter guardrails and arguing the program can scoop up Americans’ communications without a warrant. Intelligence officials say the program is essential to national security.

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Asked whether Democrats have miscalculated, Crow said “not at all.”

“I know how important it is, but I’m unwilling to trade Americans’ constitutional rights, privacy and essential civil liberties for temporary extension to this program,” Crow said.

Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina said on “Face the Nation” that “any Democrat that shuts down FISA at a time of great peril for the United States is making a huge mistake.”

“We’re playing with fire here, no matter what side does it,” Graham said. “America needs FISA up and running.”

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