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Biden or not, Democrats face critical choices in squabble over presidential ticket

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Biden or not, Democrats face critical choices in squabble over presidential ticket

Cornell Belcher, a prominent pollster who worked for the Democratic National Committee and both Obama campaigns, wishes the party’s leaders would shut up about President Biden’s poll numbers.

“There’s too much talk about polling right now,” Belcher said. “As a pollster, it’s driving me out of my … mind that people are trying to drive whatever narrative they want by using polling.”

In recent days, Biden has faced mounting calls to drop out of the race from members of his own party. Many have pointed to worsening poll numbers for the 81-year-old incumbent since a disastrous debate performance last month. Some fear that questions about the president’s mental acuity will doom down-ballot candidates too.

But with Biden repeatedly insisting that he is not stepping aside, Belcher said, Democrats harping on his slipping support were hurting, not helping, their cause.

Cornell Belcher, president of Brilliant Corners Research & Strategies and senior fellow in Foreign and Defense Policy at the American Enterprise Institute, appears on “Meet the Press” on Oct. 23, 2022.

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(William B. Plowman / Getty Images)

“Over the last three weeks, Democrats have done more damage to our ability to win in November than what Donald Trump and Republicans have been able to do,” Belcher said. “They have to stop [the] circular firing squad that they’re currently in, because it’s a death spiral.”

While calls from Congress members and major donors for Biden to step aside have dominated headlines in recent days, plenty of other Democratic loyalists have stood by the president and dismissed those calls as damaging and dangerous — posing challenging questions for the party.

How much longer should leaders push Biden to go? Will it be possible to refocus voters on the party’s accomplishments and core message — that former President Trump represents an existential threat to democracy? Is Vice President Kamala Harris a better candidate? Or anyone else?

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Perhaps most important: What is the party’s plan for right now?

“That,” said one senior House Democratic aide, “is what we’re all trying to figure out.”

‘A test of how strong the party is’

During an interview on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” on Friday, Jen O’Malley Dillon, Biden’s campaign chair, said Biden was “absolutely” running.

O’Malley Dillon said the campaign is “looking at polling” and acknowledged “some slippage in support” since the debate. But she said it was only “a small movement” in a “hardened” race where many Americans are already decided — meaning many were committed to Biden.

O’Malley Dillon said that internal data from door-knocking and other efforts in battleground states have shown that Biden is still a contender.

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Many leading Democrats were making the opposite case.

“Simply put,” Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D-San José) wrote in a letter to Biden released Friday, “your candidacy is on a trajectory to lose the White House and potentially impact crucial House and Senate races down ballot.”

A man sits in the House of Representatives while flanked by two women.

Chairman Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.), center, speaks as the House select committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol holds its final meeting on Capitol Hill in Washington on Dec. 19, 2022. From left, Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D-San José), Thompson and Vice Chair Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.).

(Jim Lo Scalzo / Associated Press)

Earlier in the week, a polling memo by the Democratic firm BlueLabs Analytics found that alternative candidates outperformed Biden in a theoretical matchup with Trump in battleground states. An Associated Press poll found nearly two-thirds of Democrats thought Biden should withdraw.

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Michael Kazin, a Georgetown University history professor and author of “What It Took to Win: A History of the Democratic Party,” said the divide between Biden loyalists and dissenters presented a unique challenge.

“It’s a test of how strong the party is in many ways,” he said. “And not just how strong it is, but how united it is in believing that defeating Trump is really critical.”

Kazin said there is no doubt Democratic leaders can shift their support to a new candidate. They just need to decide if that’s what they are going to do — and before the party’s convention next month in Chicago.

A contested convention, Kazin said, would be “fraught with lots of perils” — stirring fresh divisions when the party can least afford them.

“They have to have a successful convention, one way or the other,” Kazin said. “Otherwise, they’re doomed.”

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If it’s Biden

Whether Biden will drop out of the race is ultimately up to one person: Joe Biden. And if he stays the course, party officials would have no choice but to get on board, political analysts said.

Kerry L. Haynie, a political science professor at Duke University, said a Biden win in November will require all of the dissenters to swiftly offer “a full-throated endorsement of the campaign,” and then to “work in lockstep” to turn out the vote and reframe the race once more as a choice between “competent, honest Joe” and a dangerous Donald Trump.

Democrats will have to articulate well the idea that Biden “has lost a step” with age, but is “still capable, he’s still doing the job,” Haynie said.

President Biden speaks at a lectern.

President Biden speaks at the 115th NAACP National Convention in Las Vegas on Tuesday. Democrats at the highest levels are making a critical push for Biden to reconsider his election bid. Former President Obama has privately expressed concerns to Democrats about Biden’s candidacy.

(Susan Walsh / Associated Press)

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Democratic leaders also could emphasize that voting for Biden ensures a Democratic administration — one that will protect access to abortion, take a humane stance on immigration, appoint liberal judges and defend organized labor, LGBTQ+ people and other groups.

But Andra Gillespie, a political scientist at Emory University, said Democrats have to be careful with that message given today’s political atmosphere and distrust in bureaucrats.

“There are some people who hear that and they think ‘deep state,’” she said. “It is compelling to some, but it is repelling to others.”

Belcher, the pollster, said that if poor poll numbers this early in a race were an acceptable reason for ousting a candidate, “most of the greatest candidates in history” would never have been elected — including the Black one-term senator “with a Muslim-sounding name” he once worked for.

Democrats need to drive home the idea that Biden has made people’s lives better in regular ways, he said. They have to contrast Biden’s plan with Project 2025, the ultraconservative playbook devised for Trump’s second term by the Heritage Foundation and other conservative groups, he said, and “lean back into America’s fear and anxiety about the chaos and dangers of four more years of Donald Trump.”

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Most of all, Belcher said, Democrats need to get behind Biden as surrogates and champion his campaign message in as many places as possible.

“The best arguments for Biden that I have heard in the last two weeks haven’t been from anyone on CNN or MSNBC,” Belcher said. “It’s been on TikTok and Instagram, from people doing it in their cars.”

If Biden steps aside

If Biden steps aside, the party could coalesce around another candidate, or hold a contested convention where candidates vie for delegates.

Several experts said early, unwavering support for Harris was clearly the best option.

Gillespie said if Harris were “somehow overlooked” without convincing evidence that her candidacy would fair dramatically worse than another candidate’s, the party would “risk alienating the most loyal Democratic constituency in Black women.”

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Vice President Kamala Harris stands with children across a counter from Tyra Banks

Vice President Kamala Harris arrives to attend the opening of a pop-up ice cream shop owned by Tyra Banks, left, in Washington, on Friday.

(Nathan Howard / Associated Press)

Haynie said Harris would bring new energy and important strengths to the ticket as a younger woman of color who has already been leading the Biden campaign’s message on abortion rights, and as the daughter of immigrants, given Trump’s anti-immigrant rhetoric.

But she also would have to defend the Biden administration’s record even as party insiders try to pull her in new policy directions, including on U.S. support of Israel in its war with Hamas. She would have to rebuff legitimate criticisms about her clumsy 2020 presidential campaign and how she’s performed as vice president.

Harris also would face racist, sexist challenges that other candidates, especially white men, would not.

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“She is going to face unique challenges as a woman of color in terms of the tenor of the attacks,” Gillespie said. “She is going to have to be able to anticipate those attacks, and have a ready response to them.”

Amy K. Dacey, executive director of the Sine Institute of Policy & Politics at American University, was formerly CEO of the Democratic National Committee, and before that of Emily’s List, a national group that works to elect Democratic women.

Dacey said that despite Harris’s hurdles, she is a known entity to voters who has been tested on the national stage — unlike some other names that have been floated for the ticket.

Dacey said the party process is playing out as intended, and Democrats still have time to land on a final ticket. But the sooner they can do that — and refocus the race on policies over people — the better.

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Biden judge rejects Trump’s sanctuary cities lawsuit, says even a win wouldn’t solve DOJ’s problem

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Biden judge rejects Trump’s sanctuary cities lawsuit, says even a win wouldn’t solve DOJ’s problem

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A federal judge has tossed the Trump administration’s lawsuit against four New Jersey sanctuary cities, ruling the Justice Department targeted local policies that largely mirror a statewide immigration directive — meaning a court victory wouldn’t eliminate restrictions on ICE cooperation.

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U.S. District Judge Evelyn Padin of the District of New Jersey, who was appointed by President Joe Biden, on Wednesday dismissed the Department of Justice’s lawsuit against Newark, Hoboken, Jersey City and Paterson, ruling the federal government lacked standing because striking down the cities’ policies would not remedy its alleged injuries.

“The Federal Government’s case has a fundamental flaw — it treats the Challenged Policies as though they operate in isolation. They do not,” Padin wrote. “New Jersey’s Immigrant Trust Directive is a statewide directive that, like the Challenged Policies, limits voluntary cooperation with federal civil immigration enforcement beyond what the law requires.”

The lawsuit was part of President Donald Trump’s renewed immigration crackdown following his return to office. Since declaring a national emergency at the southern border on Jan. 20, 2025, the administration has aggressively targeted so-called sanctuary jurisdictions, arguing that local policies limiting cooperation with ICE obstruct federal immigration enforcement and violate the Constitution.

DHS TORCHES NEW JERSEY’S PROFANE ‘F—ICE ACT’ AS ASSAULTS ON AGENTS SKYROCKET 1,300%

Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents stand outside Delaney Hall detention center in Newark, New Jersey. 5/28/26. (Rashid Umar Abbasi for Fox News Digital.)

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The Justice Department filed the lawsuit in May 2025, arguing the four cities’ sanctuary policies violate the Constitution’s Supremacy Clause by interfering with federal immigration enforcement, including limiting voluntary cooperation with ICE, restricting information sharing, declining to honor certain immigration detainers and barring participation in civil immigration enforcement beyond what federal law requires.

Newark, Hoboken and Jersey City each adopted executive orders declaring themselves “fair and welcoming” or “sanctuary” cities, while Paterson implemented police procedures designed to comply with New Jersey’s immigrant protections. The cities have argued the policies preserve community trust and allow local police to focus on state and local crime rather than federal civil immigration enforcement.

But Padin did not address the question of whether the sanctuary policies are constitutional. Instead, she ruled the federal government lacked standing because New Jersey’s Immigrant Trust Directive independently imposes many of the same restrictions on law enforcement agencies across the state.

GOP CANDIDATE RIPS BLUE STATE DIRECTIVE MEDDLING IN POLICE FORCE’S COOPERATION WITH ICE: ‘HANDCUFFED’

New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill said ICE is denying her access to Newark’s Delaney Hall detention center. (Rashid Umar Abbasi for Fox News Digital; Daniel Heuer/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

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The directive, first issued under former Gov. Phil Murphy in 2018 and codified into state law by Gov. Mikie Sherrill earlier this year, limits when state and local police can cooperate with federal immigration authorities on civil immigration enforcement.

Because the statewide directive wasn’t challenged in this case, Padin concluded that even if she struck down the cities’ policies, many of the same restrictions would remain in place.

“Even if the Court enjoined the Challenged Policies,” she wrote, “its injuries would persist.”

NEW JERSEY’S BAN ON PRIVATELY OPERATED ICE DETENTION CENTERS STRUCK DOWN BY COURT

That directive has already survived multiple legal challenges. The Third Circuit upheld it after New Jersey counties argued it conflicted with federal immigration law, and the Justice Department later sued New Jersey directly over the policy, lost and did not appeal.

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“No judgment here could invalidate the ITD or relieve municipal law enforcement officers of their independent obligation to follow it,” Padin wrote.

U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents are seen at Terminal 1 of JFK Airport in New York City. An ICE agent saved the life of a 1-year-old boy at JFK after performing the Heimlich maneuver, the Department of Homeland Security said. (Getty Images)

The opinion also faulted the government for failing to identify concrete injuries caused solely by the cities’ policies. While the Justice Department cited several instances in which ICE detainers allegedly were ignored, every example involved the Essex County Correctional Facility, a county-operated jail that is not a defendant in the lawsuit and is governed by the statewide directive.

“The Federal Government must plead facts that substantiate its feared harm,” Padin wrote.

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Padin dismissed the lawsuit without prejudice, meaning the administration isn’t barred from bringing the case again if it can overcome the standing issue.

The Justice Department declined to comment.

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Supreme Court rules Trump may end legal protection for Haitians and Syrians

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Supreme Court rules Trump may end legal protection for Haitians and Syrians

The Supreme Court ruled Thursday that the Trump administration may end the Temporary Protected Status granted to more than 350,000 Haitians and Syrians whose home countries remain unsafe.

In a 6-3 decision, the court’s conservative majority said Congress gave the administration, not judges, the power to cancel or renew this temporary protection for non-citizens who are living and working here.

In a second win Thursday for the Trump administration, the court also upheld the administration’s policy of blocking asylum seekers at the southern border.

By the same 6-3 vote, the court said migrants do not have a right to apply for asylum if they are not already in the United States.

The decision on Temporary Protected Status could affect up to 1.3 million non-citizens who are in the country.

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In 1990, Congress authorized this emergency humanitarian relief for non-citizens whose home countries were wracked by armed conflict, natural disasters or other extraordinary disruptions.

Under the law, the Department of Homeland Security may grant this protection for 6, 12 or 18 months and either renew or extend it for a similar period.

But this legal authority has been under dispute since Trump returned to the White House last year and targeted the 1.3 million people with TPS from 17 countries who were living in the United States.

Trump’s lawyers said the law made clear there was “no judicial review” of the government’s decision to cancel the grant of temporary protection.

However, immigrant rights lawyers argued the government failed in its duty to consult the State Department and assess whether it was safe for migrants to return home.

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Repeatedly, U.S. district judges agreed with the challengers and ruled the administration’s decisions were “arbitrary” and unreasonable. But in nearly every case, the Supreme Court granted emergency appeals from the administration and set aside those orders.

Since TPS was created, the government has ended the protected designation for citizens of 18 countries.

DHS under then-Secretary Kristi Noem ended TPS for Honduras, Nicaragua, Afghanistan and Venezuela. A spokesperson for the agency previously said the Haiti designation became “a de facto amnesty program” and that allowing Syrians to remain is contrary to national interest.

Advocates for the immigrants argue that the administration failed to conduct the required process to properly evaluate each country’s conditions and instead acted on political grounds driven by racial animus.

State Department travel advisories for both countries warn people against traveling to either because of the risk of terrorism, kidnapping and widespread violence. But Federal Register notices announcing the terminations said country conditions had improved enough.

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Recently released internal documents show that DHS decided to terminate protections for Haitians without any input from the State Department.

Citing the documents, which were obtained by the National TPS Alliance in a separate lawsuit, lawyers for the Haitians asked the Supreme Court to dismiss the case and send it back to lower courts. They argued that the justices should first consider the communications before issuing a decision.

Internal emails show that homeland security officials sought a recommendation from the State Department in May 2025, ahead of Noem’s early June deadline on whether to extend protections for Haiti. But by the time Noem signed what appears to be a final decision memo, U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services had not received input from the State Department, the emails show.

“State recommendation for Haiti TPS has not come in despite of many outreach,” a homeland security deputy assistant secretary wrote in a June 2, 2025, email. A recommendation “would be helpful to have,” the person added.

Eleven days later, a USCIS project manager wrote in an email that Noem “recently elected to terminate Haiti without country conditions from DOS.”

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USCIS initially recommended automatically extending protections before Homeland Security decided to terminate them, earlier versions of the memo indicate.

The June decision was blocked by a federal judge. In November, DHS issued another notice terminating TPS protections for Haitians.

That time, according a previously publicized email, a homeland security senior counselor asked a State Department official for the agency’s views on the country conditions in Haiti. The official, Spencer Chretien, didn’t address the country conditions but responded that “there would be no foreign policy concerns.”

Lawyers for the Haitians argued that response didn’t meet the legal standard for a sufficient consultation, though the Trump administration disagreed.

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Closed-door outburst turns into victory for Trump’s Iran negotiations

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Closed-door outburst turns into victory for Trump’s Iran negotiations

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An explosive meeting in the Senate turned into a win for President Donald Trump and his administration as key Republicans flipped on another bid to handcuff the administration’s authorities in Iran. 

In its final act before leaving Washington, D.C., for an over two-week break, the Senate rejected Democrats’ attempt to rein in Trump’s war powers in Iran as talks continue between Iran and the U.S. to hammer out a long-term peace deal. 

It was the same war powers resolution from Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Va., that passed over a month ago and stunned Republicans in the upper chamber.

‘HE NAMED NAMES’: TRUMP’S SENATE MEETING EXPLODES INTO SHOUTING MATCH OVER IRAN

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Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., and Senate GOP leaders are pushing forward with budget reconciliation to fund the final piece of government that had been shut down by Senate Democrats’ opposition to President Donald Trump’s Immigration and Customs Enforcement actions. (Nathan Posner/Anadolu)

What seemed like a predetermined outcome just hours after Trump and Sen. Bill Cassidy, R-La., sparred over the Iran war, and the administration’s lack of forthcomingness with lawmakers, during a closed-door meeting to discuss the president’s marquee voter ID and citizenship verification legislation turned into a surprise late night win.

Trump argued to the GOP that the previous war powers resolution, which passed on Tuesday thanks in part to a pair of Republicans being absent, hurt the administration’s negotiating position with the Iranians.

Meetings with key holdouts at the White House helped change the minds of Cassidy and Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., who has routinely voted with Democrats on every war powers resolution brought forward, and provided the administration with a win as they work toward a deal beyond the 60-day memorandum of understanding with Iran.

IRATE REPUBLICANS ACCUSE TRUMP OF HANDING DEMOCRATS A WIN AFTER BLOWING UP HOUSING PACKAGE

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“I want to thank Vice President [JD] Vance and Special Envoy [Steve] Witkoff for the thorough briefing this afternoon on Iran,” Cassidy said on X. “I appreciate the quick invitation to the White House to address many of my concerns.” 

And Paul, who voted present, noted that his “opinion on the debate over war and executive power has not changed and I have voted that way several times.” 

“But since hostilities seem to be over and the President asked me to give consideration to his negotiating position, I will do so,” Paul said on X. “My vote of present is a way to give the President more space and leverage to negotiate a lasting peace.”

Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., who has been at the forefront among Democrats in pushing war powers resolutions in the upper chamber, acknowledged that “this is a different moment,” but cautioned that the ceasefire appeared to be “precarious right now.” 

When asked if he believed Trump’s case to Republicans that the successful war powers vote just a day before was hurting the administration’s leverage, Murphy said, “The Iranians don’t — you know, all they have to do is read a poll and find out that people in this country don’t support the war. They didn’t support the war.”

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TRUMP HEADS TO CAPITOL HILL FOR PIVOTAL MEETING AS SENATE GOP DIVISIONS DEEPEN

President Donald Trump boards Air Force One as he departs Reading Regional Airport in Reading, Pa., on Tuesday, June 23, 2026. (Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters)

Still, it marked a key win for Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., and the Senate GOP’s whip operation, led by Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso, R-Wyo., to flip the skeptics into backers of the administration’s long game in Iran after several contentious weeks in the Senate spurred by Trump’s last-minute decisions that either derailed or torpedoed several of his key agenda items. 

Thune and Barrasso, accompanied by Sens. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., and Bernie Moreno, R-Ohio, huddled in the GOP leader’s office as the vote wound down late Wednesday to call Trump, and share the news of the vote. 

“Wow! The Senate just changed its vote on Iran from 50-48 against, to 50-47 for,” Trump said on Truth Social. “Rand Paul and Bill Cassidy changed. Thank you to Leader John Thune, Lindsey Graham, Bernie Moreno, and all. This vote puts Iran on notice!”

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It also comes at a time when speculation has swirled over the nature of Thune and Trump’s relationship as the president, accompanied by chatter online, have ramped up the pressure to pass the Safeguarding American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) America Act. 

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Moreno made the case that the questions over their relationship, and Thune’s position as leader, was just noise, and that “there’s not a single solitary Senator running for office that says leader Thune should be replaced, not one, even non-incumbents.” 

“What today showed is that President Trump has a kind of relationship with John Thune where he says, ‘Hey, let me talk to the guys,’ understand the situation,” Moreno said. “As much as Cassidy and Trump got into it, it was because they’re both passionate, they’re both smart people.”

“And now, we’ve most importantly sent the Iranians a message that President Trump has the full backing of the Congress, and that was an incredibly important day,” he continued. “That’s a huge victory for us.”

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