Perception is reality. This is true in many aspects of life. How you walk, talk and present yourself is often how you are perceived by people you interact with in many ways. This is true at work, in social circles, you get the gist.
My own personal perception of the Dallas Cowboys this offseason has been that things have been Very Not Good. But we are sort of through the eye of the storm of the offseason and now in the final weeks before training camp begins. This time of year allows a little bit of introspection and assessment that isn’t compromised by the emotions of something important (free agency, the NFL Draft, etc.) happening in conjunction.
It remains true that things did not have to happen like this and that there were more (seemingly) efficient ways of handling the offseason for the Cowboys. Taking care of superstars needing contract extensions should always be something done in March and not once you are in Oxnard (assuming that happens) as just one example.
Still, though, the Cowboys appear to be fine on paper. And the football cognoscenti seems to agree.
Offseason waters seem to be settling on perception of the Dallas Cowboys
Narratives are like perceptions. Some would say they are identical. They are crafted and weaved for a variety of reasons and a certain flap of the butterfly’s wings can turn them from one thing into another. In our world those wings look like playoff wins.
To be clear and more importantly fair this is the way that it should be. Legacies are etched in stone by what you do when the moment is biggest and the stage is brightest. But this can be true in the same way that we do not have to act like everything outside of these is meaningless. That being said, if you know the former then you cannot act like the latter is all that matters.
As far as narratives are concerned, do you know how many teams won more games than the Cowboys last year? One. No, not the Kansas City Chiefs. It was the Baltimore Ravens who got bounced by them at home in the AFC Championship Game (yes, they reached it).
The Chiefs are the only team over the course of the last three years to have more regular-season wins than Dallas. We appropriately regard KC to be incredible but conversations these days put Baltimore in that mix as well and their MVP-winning quarterback (the only one to finish ahead of Dak Prescott in that award race). People should put Baltimore there as they are very good.
The Detroit Lions have been given all sorts of kudos as of late (again, well-earned). Nobody brings up that they blew a 17-point lead in the NFC Championship Game to the San Francisco 49ers. People have long forgotten about Dan Campbell’s questionable decisions on multiple fourth downs that blew up in his face and allowed the Niners the opportunities to mount their necessary comeback. A missing narrative.
On the subject of San Francisco, remember when Kyle Shanahan chose to take the ball first in overtime of the Super Bowl? Against the Kansas City who we just noted was the very best team in the universe? And then that decision blew up in his face? Did you even remember that this happened? Probably because you are wise, but that narrative is also absent from offseason fodder and discussion.
The Dallas Cowboys should absolutely be criticized for some of their decision-making over the course of the offseason, but it sort of feels like we have lost the plot a bit. Today’s NFL kingdom is a monarchy ruled by the Chiefs. but the Cowboys are at worst on the board of advisors or cabinet or whatever immediately-below board of governing powers you want to call it.
Pay attention to what oddsmakers are saying about the Cowboys
Let’s take a look at how some of the aforementioned cognoscenti are evaluating the Cowboys in our current moment.
Recently the folks over at PFF ranked every roster in the NFL and Dallas came in at number 9. Here is the full top 10.
- San Francisco 49ers
- Kansas City Chiefs
- Philadelphia Eagles
- New York Jets
- Baltimore Ravens
- Detroit Lions
- Houston Texans
- Cincinnati Bengals
- Dallas Cowboys
- Buffalo Bills
This is an evaluation of rosters and obviously that includes things that have happened over the course of the offseason. There are some extenuating circumstances involved like that the Jets will have Aaron Rodgers available for the season unlike last year after his unfortunate injury and that Joe Burrow will be returning for the Bengals.
But are we really willing to go this far and suggest that Dallas should be that far down? It would have been nice to see Dallas add a more prominent running back, some help at wide receiver and to not lose Tyron Smith, but there is no individually crippling thing that they endured. Was there?
Meanwhile, are we overlooking Philadelphia trading away Haason Reddick? They added to their roster substantially so maybe things even out a bit, obviously Buffalo is down after trading Stefon Diggs to the Texans.
PFF’s Steve Palazzolo argued that Dallas should be ahead of a few teams here (he specifically listed the Jets). Sam Monson noted that the Cowboys are particularly strong at top-shelf positions in quarterback, wide receiver and pass rusher (again, extensions would be nice) and that they have two different cornerbacks in Trevon Diggs and DaRon Bland who have shown quite the ability to generate turnovers.
Let’s take a look at how the folks over at DraftKings currently view the landscape of the league. Here are teams with the largest projected win over/unders.
- Kansas City Chiefs…………. 11.5
- San Francisco 49ers………. 11.5
- Baltimore Ravens…………… 10.5
- Buffalo Bills…………………… 10.5
- Cincinnati Bengals…………. 10.5
- Dallas Cowboys……………… 10.5
- Detroit Lions………………….. 10.5
- Philadelphia Eagles………… 10.5
Last year’s Super Bowl teams are rightly at the top with 11.5 each, but the next step below features all of the would-be contenders including the Cowboys.
Projected win totals are also not the end-all-be-all but neither the New York Jets nor Houston Texans are listed at 10.5 and still are ranked higher from a roster perspective. Teams with worse rosters can win more games, but you get the overall picture.
The noise of the offseason for the Cowboys (all of the “all in” stuff didn’t help) coupled with the inactivity has all been taken to the exponential power over the lack of contract extensions for faces of the franchise, and has to a degree warped the way that we have viewed this team.
Nobody is saying that they are going to win the Super Bowl. But they appear to have as good of a chance to do so as anybody else.
