Politics
Polls say a conviction could cost Trump a fifth of his support. Should we believe them?
Polls have suggested for months that former President Trump could lose support among some Republicans if he is convicted of a crime. But if history is any guide, many of those supporters will stick with him.
A Manhattan jury on Wednesday began deliberating 34 counts of falsifying business records related to his attempt to influence the 2016 campaign by concealing a payment to porn actress Stormy Daniels.
What do the polls say?
An ABC News/Ipsos poll conducted this month found that 16% of Trump’s supporters would reconsider their support while 4% would leave him altogether if he is convicted of a felony.
A Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll of seven swing states in January found 9% of Republican-leaning voters would be somewhat unwilling to vote for Trump if he is convicted of a crime, while 14% of those voters said they would be very unwilling to vote for him.
Will those numbers hold up?
Potential defectors in the ABC poll left themselves wiggle room by saying they would “reconsider” support rather than rule it out completely. And time usually helps Trump recapture his base after a scandal as he and other Republicans argue that the process is rigged or the alternative to Trump is worse.
Notice that, although the questions differed, his numbers look better in the May ABC poll than they did in the January Bloomberg poll, when 14% of Republicans were more willing to cast Trump off, saying they would be “very unwilling” to back him in the case of a conviction.
Will people who leave Trump switch to President Biden?
A USA Today/Suffolk poll in March found 14% of Trump supporters said they would leave him if he is convicted. But less than 1% would move to Biden. The biggest chunk, 7.5%, said they would move to a third party.
That could still help Biden indirectly because it would erode Trump’s margins if it holds up, according to David Paleologos, who directs the Suffolk poll.
How has Trump prepared his supporters for a conviction?
Trump has been seeding the ground with his supporters for a possible conviction for months, using two primary tools. First, he has summoned a chorus of party bigwigs to the courtroom, including House Speaker Mike Johnson, to parrot his protestations and signal loyalty at the highest reaches of the Republican Party, a technique he has used with prior scandals. Second, he has continually criticized the judge and prosecutor and, briefly, even the jury to undermine the process and manage expectations that he might be convicted.
“Mother Teresa could not beat these charges,” Trump said Wednesday.
The approach has helped Trump politically. Just 7% of Republicans think he is getting a fair trial, compared with 76% of Democrats, according to a USA Today/Suffolk poll conducted this month.
Haven’t we seen this movie before?
Yes. Trump looked doomed after the “Access Hollywood” tape became public in October 2016, so much so that he is now being accused of concealing the payment to keep Daniels quiet about an alleged affair.
But party leaders and voters in his base were able to move on by concluding that it was locker room talk or that the alternative, Hillary Clinton, was a worse choice.
A similar dynamic played out after the Jan. 6 insurrection. Party leaders blamed Trump for what they characterized as a dark day in history in the immediate aftermath. But he escaped conviction in the Senate, with help from Republican Leader Mitch McConnell, and his support among GOP voters eventually rebounded.
More than half of Republicans (51%) disapproved strongly of the actions of those who forced their way into the Capitol in a January 2021 CBS/YouGov poll. Three years later, only 32% strongly disapproved of their actions, according to another CBS poll. Nearly two-thirds of Republicans also supported pardons for those convicted of crimes related to the insurrection in the 2024 poll.
So could a conviction affect the election?
Maybe. If Trump loses in court, Biden and the rest of the country can call him a convicted felon from now until November.
And even a small number of Republicans and undecided voters can swing an election that is expected to be extremely close. The USA Today/Suffolk poll found independent voters were divided evenly, 37% to 37%, on whether Trump’s trial is fair or not, leaving more room for at least some voters to be swayed by a verdict.
“In a vacuum, this verdict could continue right through the election because it will be a conviction. It will be historical,” said Paleologos.
But at some point, other issues like the economy could crowd it out and it could feel to some voters like old news, he said.
Politics
China-linked birth tourism under scrutiny as GOP lawmakers press Trump admin for answers
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FIRST ON FOX: House Republicans are pressing the Trump administration for answers over whether China is exploiting U.S. birthright citizenship and visa programs in a U.S. territory to secure long-term influence inside the United States.
In a letter sent Monday to outgoing Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, Reps. Chip Roy, R-Texas, and Tom Tiffany, R-Wis., and 32 other GOP members raise concerns that so-called “birth tourism” and visa-waiver policies in the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands could be leveraged by Chinese nationals in ways that present national security risks.
Noem will leave her position at the Department of Homeland Security at the end of the month.
“American citizenship is a sacred trust—not a loophole to be exploited. When foreign adversaries like the Chinese Communist Party can leverage birth tourism and visa-less programs to gain influence within our borders, we must restore integrity to our immigration system and defend the sovereignty of our Republic,” Roy said.
Tiffany argued that “Communist China has exploited ‘birth tourism’ by sending women to the Northern Mariana Islands solely to give birth and secure U.S. citizenship for their children,” adding that “It is time to close this loophole, end the abuse, and protect our national security.”
TRUMP SAYS SUPREME COURT RULING AGAINST BIRTHRIGHT CITIZENSHIP ORDER WOULD BENEFIT CHINA
House Republicans are pressing the Trump administration for answers over whether China is exploiting U.S. birthright citizenship and visa programs in a U.S. territory to secure long-term influence inside the United States. (GemStocks/Getty Images )
The Northern Mariana Islands is a U.S. territory in the Pacific, and like births in any U.S. state, children born there are granted American citizenship under the 14th Amendment, even though the territory operates under certain distinct immigration rules.
The lawmakers cite reports estimating that between 750,000 and 1.5 million Chinese nationals have obtained U.S. citizenship through birthright policies and birth tourism, though federal agencies have not publicly confirmed those figures. In their letter, Roy and Tiffany ask the Departments of Homeland Security, State and Interior to provide data on how many children have been born since 2009 to at least one Chinese national parent, how many have reached voting age, and how many are registered to vote in the United States.
They also ask whether any such individuals have documented ties to the Chinese Communist Party and request entry figures for Chinese nationals under Northern Mariana-specific immigration programs.
Under the 14th Amendment, individuals born on U.S. soil are generally granted citizenship at birth. The debate has centered on whether foreign nationals travel to the United States specifically to give birth so their children will obtain citizenship — a practice commonly referred to as birth tourism.
Federal prosecutors in recent years have brought criminal cases against operators of birth tourism businesses, particularly in California, where organizers were convicted of visa fraud and conspiracy for helping foreign nationals misrepresent their travel intentions in order to give birth in the United States.
The Northern Mariana Islands have long operated under distinct immigration frameworks. In 2009, the Obama administration implemented a categorical parole program allowing certain Chinese nationals to enter without obtaining a traditional U.S. tourist visa. The Biden administration in 2024 finalized a rule creating the Economic Vitality & Security Travel Authorization Program (EVS-TAP) for the Northern Mariana Islands, which allows certain Chinese nationals to enter the territory visa-free for short stays.
In a letter sent to Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, Reps. Chip Roy, R-Texas, and Tom Tiffany, R-Wis., and 32 other GOP members raise concerns that so-called “birth tourism” and visa-waiver policies in the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI) could be leveraged by Chinese nationals in ways that present national security risks. (Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)
Tiffany argued that “Communist China has exploited ‘birth tourism’ by sending women to the Northern Mariana Islands solely to give birth and secure U.S. citizenship for their children,” adding that “It is time to close this loophole, end the abuse, and protect our national security.” (AP Photo/Scott Bauer)
The lawmakers argue those policies created incentives for birth tourism in Saipan, the capital of the islands, pointing to reports that births to foreign visitors increased sharply after the 2009 changes.
NOEM BACKS SAVE AMERICA ACT, SLAMS ‘RADICAL LEFT’ OPPOSITION TO VOTER IDS AND PROOF OF CITIZENSHIP
They warn that once U.S.-born children turn 21, they can petition for lawful permanent resident status for their parents, potentially opening additional immigration pathways.
While the letter raises concerns that such individuals could eventually participate in U.S. elections, it does not cite evidence that large numbers are currently registered to vote or that the Chinese government has directed birth tourism as a coordinated strategy.
The Departments of Homeland Security and Interior did not immediately respond to Fox News Digital’s requests for comment. The State Department referred back to the Department of Homeland Security.
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The letter comes amid heightened tensions between Washington and Beijing, with U.S. officials repeatedly warning about Chinese influence operations, intellectual property theft and espionage efforts targeting American institutions.
Roy and Tiffany urged the administration to end any parole or visa-waiver programs extended to Chinese nationals in the Northern Mariana Islands and to provide a full accounting of the scope of birth tourism involving PRC nationals.
The Chinese embassy could not immediately be reached for comment.
Politics
CBS News’ Justice Department correspondent Scott MacFarlane exits network
Scott MacFarlane, a high-profile hire for CBS News five years ago, announced Monday he is leaving the network.
MacFarlane told colleagues in an email that the departure is his decision.
“I will always value the opportunity I had to work alongside the talented and committed professionals here,” MacFarlane said. “I’m proud to have had the words ‘CBS correspondent’ next to my name and always will be.”
MacFarlane added that he looks forward to “some independence and finding new spaces to share my work in line with my personal goals.”
MacFarlane is the first significant name to depart CBS News since parent company Paramount won its bid to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery on Feb. 27. CBS News is likely to be combined with Warner Bros. Discovery’s CNN if the deal gets regulatory approval.
Journalists at CBS News have also been concerned over the moves by Bari Weiss, the contrarian opinion writer and founder of the digital news site the Free Press who was brought in as editor in chief of the division. Weiss was recruited by Paramount Chief Executive David Ellison with a mandate to move CBS News to the political center.
Weiss is expected to make significant changes to “60 Minutes” and other CBS News programs in the coming months.
Executives at other TV news organizations say privately that they are seeing a heavy influx of resumes from CBS News journalists due to the upheaval at the company.
MacFarlane covered Congress and the Justice Department. CBS viewers saw him featured during extended network coverage of the State of the Union addresses and election nights.
MacFarlane was in Butler, Pa., during the assassination attempt of President Trump in July 2024. He reported the first accounts of the shooting scene and emergency responses moments after the shots were fired.
Before arriving at CBS News, MacFarlane served for eight years as an investigative reporter for WRC-TV, the NBC station in Washington, D.C.
Politics
Before-and-after satellite imagery offers a rare look at damage inside Iran
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Fresh satellite images give a rare aerial view of the damage across Iran after U.S.-Israeli strikes and what Tehran’s retaliation left behind across the region.
Planet Labs satellite imagery captured burning ships and damaged facilities at the Konarak base in southern Iran, as well as significant destruction at Iran’s naval headquarters in Bandar Abbas on the Persian Gulf, reflecting the scale of the strikes on military infrastructure.
Satellite imagery from Planet Labs shows damage at Konarak naval base in southern Iran, left, and Iran’s Bandar Abbas naval headquarters in the Persian Gulf, right. (Planet Labs PBC)
Imagery from Vantor shows damage to facilities and vessels located in Iran’s Bushehr port in the Persian Gulf.
In addition to naval assets, satellite photos show a bunker at Bushehr air base hit by a strike, leaving a large crater and destroying several nearby small buildings.
More strikes targeted the Choqa Balk drone facility in western Iran.
Radar systems at the Zahedan air base in eastern Iran — near the country’s borders with Pakistan and Afghanistan — were also struck.
The two facilities are about 800 to 900 miles apart, underscoring the broad reach of the coordinated strikes.
Satellite imagery also reveals damage to aircraft on the tarmac at Shiraz air base, including scorch marks and debris around several parking areas.
Side-by-side photos showing damage to aircraft at Shiraz air base in Shiraz, Iran on March 6, 2026. (Vantor/Maxar/Getty Images)
Satellite imagery from Planet Labs shows thick smoke plumes rising above Tehran, signaling explosions and fires inside the Iranian capital.
The smoke underscores how the conflict has moved beyond isolated military sites and into the heart of Iran’s political center.
THE UNLIKELY TOOL TRUMP IS EYEING TO TACKLE RISING OIL PRICES AMID THE IRAN CONFLICT
A satellite image from Planet Labs shows a plume of smoke above Tehran, Iran, on March 1, 2026. (Planet Labs PBC)
Iran has since responded with missile and drone strikes of its own, expanding the conflict across the region.
Satellite images reveal damage to the port city of Sharjah in the United Arab Emirates. Sharjah is the third most populous after Dubai and Abu Dhabi.
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The Jebel Ali Port, the region’s largest maritime hub, was also targeted, underscoring how the retaliation extended beyond military sites to key infrastructure.
The new satellite imagery comes on the heels of U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and several top members of the regime, triggering a succession crisis.
President Donald Trump warned on Sunday that Iran’s new leader is “not going to last long” without U.S. approval as Operation Epic Fury marches into a third week.
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