Politics
Trump and Biden both say they’re tough on China. But whom would Beijing prefer to deal with?
No matter who wins the U.S. election in November, for China it’s lose-lose.
With mistrust between the two nations deepening, both President Biden and presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump have sought to cast themselves as hard-line negotiators who will stand tough against China’s rise.
And with both candidates vying to prove their mettle on dealing with China, experts are divided on which would ultimately harm Beijing’s interests more.
There’s no best-case scenario. There’s only the bad scenario and worse scenario
— Yun Sun, China expert
“There’s no best-case scenario. There’s only the bad scenario and worse scenario,” said Yun Sun, director of the China Program at the Stimson Center, a Washington-based think tank.
Biden has proved himself to be the more predictable president, which appeals to China’s penchant for stability. But steadier leadership in Washington could bolster its partnerships in the Asia-Pacific, at a time when Beijing feels increasingly penned in by U.S. allies such as Japan, Australia and the Philippines.
President Biden meets virtually with Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2021.
(Susan Walsh / Associated Press)
As the more capricious politician, Trump might undermine such alliances, providing a vacuum for Beijing to step in and strengthen ties with U.S.-friendly nations. However, his impulsive tendencies could trigger a rapid deterioration of the relationship between China and the United States.
“With the Biden administration, the Chinese side is concerned with the long-term power play,” said Minghao Zhao, deputy director for the Center for American Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai. “If we have a Trump presidency, we have to be worried about more turbulence.”
The Biden administration has made some efforts to improve frayed ties with China. In November, Biden and President Xi Jinping met in Silicon Valley and agreed to restart military-to-military communications, which China suspended in retaliation for then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in 2022. Analysts said the pact was critical in preventing flare-ups from becoming broader conflicts.
“For two large countries like China and the United States, turning their back on each other is not an option,” Xi said.
Still, sticking points remain.
When Biden was asked if he trusted Xi, he invoked an old Russian adage popularized by President Reagan during the Cold War: “Trust but verify.”
The current administration’s focus on Chinese “overcapacity” in metals and electric cars signals more sparring over technology and trade and China’s impact on U.S. industries.
Last week, Biden called for the tripling of tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from China to combat what he described as “unfair trade practices,” and a flood of cheap, low-quality products that have distorted the U.S. market.
The latest initiative builds upon the trade war that Trump launched in 2018, implementing 25% duties on billions of dollars of imports from China, such as cars, metals and machinery. In February, Trump threatened to raise tariffs on Chinese imports to 60% or more if he became president again.
U.S. officials also have become more wary of Chinese software and the security risks it poses for U.S. users. On Wednesday, Biden signed into law a measure that would either ban or force a sale of the Chinese-owned short video app TikTok.
That same bill included about $8 billion in security assistance for Taiwan, which Beijing considers part of its territory. The sovereignty of the self-ruled island is a particularly contentious impasse in U.S.-China relations, as Washington has strengthened ties with Taiwanese officials and China has increased military aggression.
China said it opposed the aid allocated for Taiwan and has accused the U.S. of enabling the island democracy to pursue formal independence. Biden has said publicly that the U.S. would send military assistance to Taiwan if China attacked, but the administration has clarified that U.S. policy has not changed — that the United States acknowledges Beijing’s claim to the island but does not endorse it.
The U.S. has warned China against providing aid to Russia in its war with Ukraine, and has considered sanctioning Chinese banks to deter support, the Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday. U.S. Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken is expected to discuss Ukraine among other disputes during a visit to China this week, and issued a warning ahead of his arrival.
“If China purports on the one hand to want good relations with Europe and other countries, it can’t on the other hand be fueling what is the biggest threat to European security since the end of the Cold War,” Blinken said Friday.
China said the U.S. was making “groundless accusations.” It also objected in a formal complaint to the World Trade Organization to recent U.S. legislation offering subsidies to incentivize domestic manufacturing of electric vehicles.
During the last election, some analysts had predicted that Biden would be softer on China compared with Trump. This time, it’s clear that neither candidate is likely to reverse a decade-long hardening against China, said Ho-fung Hung, a professor of political economy at Johns Hopkins University.
That shift began with President Obama’s efforts to establish stronger economic and diplomatic ties in Asia, spurred by growing unease with Beijing’s military assertiveness, as well as complaints that Chinese competitors were unfairly squeezing out U.S. companies, Hung said.
Now, “the only difference between different presidents would be the details and approaches of how they implement the toughening policy,” he said.
Then-President Trump speaks as China’s President Xi Jinping, far left, listens during a bilateral meeting at the G-20 summit in Buenos Aires in 2018.
(Pablo Martinez Monsivais / Associated Press)
Both candidates have a history of angering China with public remarks. After their November meeting, Biden again referred to Xi as a dictator. And while Trump has been quicker to praise Xi, he maligned China during the outbreak of COVID-19, which he insistently referred to as the “Chinese virus.”
Minxin Pei, a professor of government at Claremont McKenna College, said that stronger anti-China rhetoric among Republicans may inevitably beget harsher China policies under Trump.
“They’re being so tough on China, it might be difficult for them to climb down,” he said.
But Ja Ian Chong, an associate professor of political science at the National University of Singapore, said that since Trump doesn’t adhere to political conventions, Beijing may see more opportunity to negotiate with the former real estate mogul.
“Since Biden is tough anyway, it may be worth the risk to roll the dice and see what Trump might bring,” Chong said.
Some reports on Chinese disinformation campaigns also indicate a potential preference for a Trump presidency.
An April report from the London-based Institute for Strategic Dialogue, a research organization, identified a network of Chinese government-linked social media accounts impersonating Trump supporters and propagating criticisms of Biden.
However, academics said attempts to spread information by Chinese actors are probably more geared toward sowing doubt in democracy and America rather than directly targeting Trump or Biden.
“I think they are more interested in showing that democratic elections are not an effective system,” Sun from the Stimson Center said. “In that sense, undermining credibility is more important for China than undermining a specific candidate.”
Commentators from Chinese state and social media have criticized both candidates as indicative of the flaws of democracy and America’s decline. An April commentary from China’s official state news agency said money, rather than voters, would ultimately decide the next U.S. president.
Sima Nan, a Chinese television pundit, said in a video on Chinese social media last year that a race between Biden and Trump would be a difficult choice — like picking between spoiled Coke or spoiled Pepsi.
Special correspondent Xin-yun Wu in Taipei contributed to this report.
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Rep. Diana DeGette, D-Colo., a 30-year incumbent, lost to a Democratic Socialists of America (DSA)-backed challenger in a high-profile primary on Tuesday evening.
Melat Kiros, a 29-year-old socialist, defeated DeGette in a Democratic primary for a deep-blue House seat anchored in Denver, according to The Associated Press, scoring a major victory for the socialist left on Tuesday evening.
The DSA had been aiming to cast DeGette’s loss as evidence of its growing momentum after a slate of socialist candidates won Democratic primaries in New York City last week.
“Today, the East Coast, next week the Mountain West,” the DSA wrote in a social media post last week.
Rep. Diana DeGette speaks during a press conference outside the U.S. Capitol building in Washington, D.C., on Jan. 10, 2024. (Samuel Corum/Getty Images)
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If elected in November, Kiros, who was born in Ethiopia, will likely join the ranks of the far-left group known as the Squad and become one of a handful of the House chamber’s outspoken socialists.
The millennial challenger was endorsed by Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., and the anti-incumbent leftist organization Justice Democrats. Controversial socialist streamer Hasan Piker, who has said Hamas is “a thousand times better” than Israel and praised the Chinese Communist Party, also backed Kiros’ insurgent primary run.
DeGette, a member of the Congressional Progressive Caucus who supports abolishing Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), sought to win a 16th House term by flexing her leftist bona fides. She argued her seniority on an influential House committee would allow her to push for Medicare-for-All legislation — a longtime priority of the party’s far-left flank.
DeGette, who was endorsed by former CPC Chairwoman Pramila Jayapal, D-Wash., also spotlighted her experience as an impeachment manager during Trump’s second impeachment trial in 2021.
Though DeGette and Kiros shared few policy disagreements, they diverged sharply over Israel and antisemitism. Kiros also sharply criticized DeGette for accepting corporate PAC contributions.
Kiros, a PhD student and lawyer, was fired from a New York firm in 2023 after publishing an open letter, arguing that pro-Palestinian student protesters calling for the elimination of Israel were not antisemitic and appearing to defend Hamas.
Melat Kiros participated in a League of Women Voters Congressional District 1 candidate forum at Montview Presbyterian Church in Denver on May 28, 2026. (RJ Sangosti/MediaNews Group/The Denver Post)
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She has also described the Oct. 7, 2023, attacks against the Jewish state as the “inevitable consequence of apartheid” and declined to characterize the deadly firebombing of protesters in Boulder last year who were urging the release of hostages held by Hamas in Gaza as antisemitic.
“I don’t know what was in the heart of the perpetrator,” Kiros told Colorado’s 9News in a recent television interview. “All I know is that he went and attacked innocent people because of what they might have believed.”
A June 2025 bipartisan resolution condemning the attack as part of a “rise in ideologically motivated attacks on Jewish individuals” won every present lawmaker’s support, except for Reps. Rashida Tlaib, D-Mich., and Thomas Massie, R-Ky., who voted present.
Kiros has also suggested the United States deserved 9/11.
“Inevitable in the sense that we destabilized a lot of the Middle East that forced people to believe that another act of violence was the only response,” Kiros told 9News when asked if she thought the terror attack was “the inevitable consequence of American foreign policy.”
“And again, just like I said before, our responsibility is to get rid of those conditions that lead to violence in the first place,” Kiros continued.
DeGette argued that Kiros’ embrace of Piker and her comments about antisemitism and 9/11 were disqualifying.
“I’m shocked and disgusted that Kiros is doubling down on excusing terrorism and the murder of innocent people,” the 30-year incumbent wrote on Facebook earlier this month.
Streamer and creator Hasan Piker speaks at a press conference during day two of Web Summit Vancouver at the Vancouver Convention Centre in Vancouver, Canada, on May 13, 2026. (Sam Barnes/Web Summit via Sportsfile via Getty Images)
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Colorado’s 1st Congressional District is the most liberal seat in the state and voted for former Vice President Kamala Harris by 56 points in 2024.
The primary fight was further scrambled by University of Colorado Regent Wanda James, also running for DeGette’s seat. Though James did not pose the same threat as Kiros, her vote share could ultimately have swayed the contest.
Gov. Gavin Newsom has signed off on a 100% state tax on money any Californians receive from Trump’s $1.8-billion “anti-weaponization” fund for his political allies.
Newsom unveiled his proposal in May, after Trump’s Justice Department said it would create a fund to compensate Trump’s allies who claim they have “suffered weaponization and lawfare” under Biden’s Justice Department.
The settlement fund was criticized by politicians on both sides of the aisle, including Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), who described it as a “slush fund to pay people who assault cops.”
The fund remains in legal limbo. Earlier this month, a federal judge in Virginia extended a court-ordered block on the plan, which critics warned could be used to pay pardoned Jan. 6 rioters.
Fast-tracked into law as part of Senate Bill 122, Newsom’s plan imposes “a tax on any settlement fund payment from the federal Anti-Weaponization Fund, or any subsequent fund, settlement, or agreement, as provided, at a rate of 100%,” according to the bill text. The tax applies to all tax years between 2026 and 2030.
Newsom signed the bill Tuesday. In a statement, his office said the tax is meant to ensure that, should Trump’s fund proceed, California recipients won’t “receive favorable state treatment on those payments.”
“We believe democracy is worth defending, the rule of law matters, and public dollars should support victims—not those who attacked the very institutions that protect our freedoms,” Newsom said in the statement.
University of Southern California law professor Ariel Jurow Kleiman, an expert on tax law and policy, said that while Newsom’s tax is a “novel legal strategy,” she believes there is “no categorical legal restriction” preventing California from implementing it.
States have a “wide degree of discretion” to design their tax systems — including how they define income — so long as they do not violate their constitutions, Jurow Kleiman said.
If a California resident wanted to challenge the tax in court, they would need to show they were harmed by it to have standing to sue, according to Jurow Kleiman. That would mean receiving a payment from Trump’s settlement fund and then paying the 100% California tax. Unless the settlement fund is established and distributes payments, that scenario is unlikely.
While there have been proposals to levy a 100% tax on income above certain thresholds — Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) in 2023 said he supports a 100% tax on income exceeding $1 billion — Jurow Kleiman said she is not aware of any governments that have adopted such a policy.
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The House has officially shipped a colossal bipartisan housing package to President Donald Trump, and lawmakers are hoping that, at the very least, he doesn’t veto it.
Trump was supposed to sign the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act last week, but his last-minute decision to ghost the signing ceremony with House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., and Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., put into question whether the bill was dead.
His refusal to sign the bill, which passed with overwhelmingly bipartisan support in both chambers, was to leverage the Safeguarding American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) America Act, which doesn’t currently have the votes to succeed in the Senate.
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Trump has refused to sign the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act. (Shawn Thew/EPA/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
Trump appears to be in no hurry to sign the bill, despite Republicans who are hungry for a win in the affordability fight ahead of the midterm elections.
“It’s so unimportant … compared to the SAVE America Act,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on Monday. “I think the SAVE America Act is exactly what it says. It’s saving America from crooked elections.”
“Here’s what I would like to sign, much more than a bill that — big deal, it’s a yawn,” he continued. “Some people say it’s wonderful. To me, compared to the SAVE America Act, just about everything is a big yawn.”
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It’s legislation that is loaded with nearly 60 provisions from both sides of the aisle in both chambers that’s designed to make it easier for homes to be built and for younger Americans to buy their first home. It also includes a ban on hedge funds buying up housing stock that Trump pushed Congress to include during the State of the Union earlier this year.
Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., one of the architects behind the bill in the upper chamber alongside Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., charged that Congress handed the bill to Trump “on a silver platter.”
“When you ask me what happens next, if he cared about the American people, he’d have already signed the damned thing, and we’d be underway,” Warren said on WCVB’s “On the Record” on Sunday.
But Trump doesn’t have to put his signature on the bill for it to become law.
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The Senate advanced a massive, Trump-backed housing package geared toward lowering the costs of homes and supercharging the housing supply. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., pitched it as legislation to prevent America from becoming a “nation of renters.” (Jemal Countess/Getty Images for Protect Borrowers; Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)
The Constitution grants presidents the ability to veto a bill within 10 days of it being transferred over to the White House. In that scenario, Congress could override a veto of the housing package.
It’s happened before under the Trump administration. In early 2021, Congress overrode Trump’s veto of the annual National Defense Authorization Act — a massive Pentagon funding authorization package that some House Republicans are trying to use as a vehicle to pass the SAVE America Act.
But during that 10-day period, if Trump doesn’t sign the bill, it would automatically become law. That’s unless Congress completely adjourns, in which case a “pocket veto” could happen. The Senate is currently in recess and the House is scheduled to leave town by week’s end, but neither count as a full adjournment.
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Johnson, who spent the last few days meeting with Trump at the White House about the housing bill and the SAVE America Act, said: “I hope he does sign it.”
“If he doesn’t, it’s still law,” Johnson said. “We’ll still celebrate it, but he’s trying to make a point, and I think he’s making it very effectively. And the fact that you all ask me every three steps down the hallway illustrates that he has achieved the desired objective, and that is to make SAVE America the number one thing, because if we don’t get that right, everybody’s concerned about what happens next.”
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