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Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Buffalo Bills Prediction, Preview, and Odds – 1-15-2024
We’ve made it through the regular season and for 18 teams, their year is over. For 14 teams with hopes of hoisting the Lombardi Trophy, their dream lives on, at least for another week. Twelve of those teams play this weekend with the winner moving on and the loser going home for the offseason. In an AFC Wild Card Round matchup, the Pittsburgh Steelers take the short trip to take on the Buffalo Bills Sunday afternoon. Pittsburgh finished their regular season slate with a 17-10 road win over Baltimore last Saturday, covering the line as a three-point favorite. Buffalo downed Miami 21-14 on the road last Sunday, covering the line as a 2.5-point favorite. In the all-time regular season series between the teams, the Steelers own a 15-11 edge though the Bills rolled to a 38-3 home win in the most recent meeting on October 9, 2022. They have met in the postseason three times with the Steelers owning a 2-1 edge, though they haven’t met in the playoffs since 1996.
(This game has been moved to Monday at 4:30pmET due to weather conditions in Buffalo)
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Pittsburgh Steelers Looking to Maintain Late Season Charge
Pittsburgh won three straight to close the regular season and earned a playoff spot by beating Baltimore, coupled by Jacksonville losing to Tennessee. The Steelers finished the regular season 10-7 overall and look to earn the road upset here. Against Baltimore, Pittsburgh overcame wintry conditions and took advantage of the fact that the Ravens sat a majority of their starters to earn a victory. The Steelers led 7-0 after the opening quarter, were even at the half and after three quarters. Pittsburgh took the lead for good on the first play of the fourth quarter on a 71-yard touchdown pass to Diontae Johnson and went on to the victory. The Steelers owned a 289-224 edge in total offense, held a 16-13 advantage in first downs and controlled the clock by a 34:04 to 25:56 margin. Each team turned the ball over twice in the game.
TAE TIME @Juiceup__3
📺: #PITvsBUF 1/14 at 1 PM ET on CBS pic.twitter.com/E6eVZ9nz4M
— Pittsburgh Steelers (@steelers) January 8, 2024
The Steelers finished the regular season 25th in the league in passing offense as they average 186.1 yards per game through the air. The team is 13th in the league in rushing offense as they put up an average of 118.2 yards per contest. Pittsburgh is 28th in the league in scoring offense with 17.9 points per contest and 6th in scoring defense as they allow 19.1 points per game. Kenny Pickett is 201 of 324 passing for 2,070 yards with six touchdowns and four interceptions on the year. He contributes 54 yards and a score on the ground. Mitch Trubisky is 67 of 107 for 632 yards with four touchdowns and five interceptions in limited action. Mason Rudolph is 55 of 74 for 719 yards with three scores. Najee Harris leads the team on the ground with 255 carries for 1,035 yards plus eight scores. Jaylen Warren (149 carries, 784 yards, four TD) is the #2 back in the ground game this season. Diontae Johnson has 51 receptions totaling 717 yards and five scores on the season, putting him third on the team. George Pickens (63 catches, 1140 yards, five TD), Pat Freiermuth (32 grabs, 308 yards, two TD), Allen Robinson II (34 catches, 280 yards), Calvin Austin III (17 grabs, 180 yards, TD) and Warren (61 receptions, 370 yards) have been active as well. Chris Boswell has hit 27 of 28 extra point attempts and 29 of 31 field goal attempts this season with a long of 57 on the year.
Pittsburgh’s biggest injury is T.J. Watt (knee), who led the league with 19 sacks. He sprained his MCL against the Ravens and is out here.
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Buffalo Bills Shoot to Keep Rolling
Buffalo won their final five games in the regular season, all coming after their bye in week 13, and their triumph over Miami on the road last week gave them the AFC East crown for the fourth straight season. The Bills finished the regular season 11-6 and look to carry that momentum to the postseason. Against Miami, Buffalo had their struggles finishing drives but made the plays in all three phases of the game in crunch time to earn the victory. The Bills trailed 14-7 at the half and after three quarters before Deonte Harty’s franchise-record 96-yard punt return for a score tied the game early in the fourth quarter. Buffalo forced a three-and-out, then went down the field again, capped by a five-yard touchdown pass to Dawson Knox, to take the lead with 7:16 to play. The Bills’ defense held from there, forcing another three-and-out, followed by Taylor Rapp’s interception with 1:13 to play, which allowed them to run out the clock. Buffalo rolled up a massive 473-275 edge in total offense, picked up a 26-16 advantage in first downs and dominated time of possession by a 38:07 to 21:53 margin. Those numbers helped overshadow the fact that they turned the ball over three times while forcing two takeaways.
LET’S GO, @tayynation1‼️
📺: @SNFonNBC pic.twitter.com/DBOCwnG1ey
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) January 8, 2024
On the year, the Bills are eighth in the league in passing offense with an average of 244.4 yards per game and 7th in rushing with an average of 130.1 yards per contest. Buffalo is sixth in the league in scoring offense by putting up 26.5 points per contest and they are fourth in the league in scoring defense by allowing 18.3 points per game. Josh Allen is 385 of 579 passing for 4,306 yards with 29 touchdowns and 18 interceptions on the season. He is second on the team on the ground with 524 rushing yards and 15 scores. James Cook leads the run game with 237 carries for 1,122 yards and two scores. Latavius Murray (79 carries, 300 yards, three TD) and Ty Johnson (30 carries, 132 yards) have also seen work on the ground. Stefon Diggs is the team’s top receiver as he has hauled in 107 passes for 1,183 yards and eight touchdowns. Gabe Davis (45 catches, 746 yards, seven TD), Cook (44 receptions, 445 yards, four TD), Dalton Kincaid (73 grabs, 673 yards, two TD) and Khalil Shakir (39 grabs, 611 yards, two TD) are each over the 400-yard mark in receiving yards. Tyler Bass is 49 of 50 on extra point attempts and 24 of 29 on field goal attempts with a long of 54 this season.
Buffalo has several names to monitor going through the rest of the week on the injury report. Safety Taylor Rapp (calf), defensive ends Leonard Floyd (rest) and Von Miller (rest), cornerback Rasul Douglas (knee) and wide receiver Gabe Davis (knee) all didn’t practice Wednesday. Tackle Dion Dawkins (hand), running back Ty Johnson (concussion) and linebacker Tyrel Dodson (shoulder) were each limited. Watch for updates over the coming days for new information.
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These teams have some similarities when you look at them. Both teams fired their offensive coordinators during the season. Each side closed the season on a win streak with Pittsburgh winning three straight games while Buffalo won five in a row. The Steelers have their work cut out for them here, especially without Watt. He’s a disruptor and a force to be reckoned with that has to be accounted for on every play. Without him, the Steelers have to try and regroup defensively, which is a challenge. Rudolph has been solid after taking over the QB role down the stretch but he’s making his first postseason start here. Allen, through the good and the bad, has been here before. That, with the home field advantage of the Bills Mafia, helps Buffalo advance to the divisional round.
Prediction: Buffalo Bills -9.5
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Pittsburgh has stayed under the total in 11 of their 17 games on the year. Six of the Steelers’ eight road games this season have wound up under the number. Buffalo has seen the under go 11-6 in their 17 games on the year. The Bills have stayed under the total in five of their eight home games on the year, including five of their last six contests at Highmark Stadium. Weather could be a major factor with lake effect snow and winds upward of 20 miles per hour wreaking havoc. Those factors have driven the number down substantially and it might be a little too low here. Look for this game to wind up over the number.
Prediction: Over 35
Location: PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA
Broadcast: KDKA AM/FM, Sportsnet Pittsburgh
The Pittsburgh Pirates are at home today against the Pittsburgh Pirates looking to grab a win against the Tampa Bay Rays.
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It’s only fitting that one of the most eventful offseasons in Pittsburgh Steelers history will be capped by an equally unpredictable NFL draft. Owning 12 picks, including five in the top 100 for the first time since 1999, GM Omar Khan has a chance to radically change the franchise’s trajectory in front of a home crowd in Pittsburgh.
Last time they held five picks in the top 100, the Steelers found a couple very good long-term starters like OLB Joey Porter Sr. and DE Aaron Smith. But they also struck out on WR Troy Edwards, DB Scott Shields, and OT Kris Farris.
At a pivotal, transitional phase in franchise history, the Steelers can’t afford to find just two good starters. That may be a challenge in a draft lacking top-end talent that falls off a cliff in the later rounds. If they are out of range of coveted players, they can’t be timid in the trade market.
I posed the question on this week’s episode of The Depot Dive: Over or under 2.5 trades for the Steelers? I wanted to take the over, but it’s hard to make that work without a trade down. I settled on two.
All that said, here’s my best attempt at predicting what the Steelers will do in the 2026 NFL Draft.
Round One (12th Overall) – Spencer Fano/OL/Utah – 6054, 311 pounds
Trade: Steelers send Patrick Queen + Pick No. 21 + Pick No. 121 + Pick No. 224. Cowboys send Pick No. 12 + 2027 sixth-round pick.
If they want Vega Ioane or Fano, I think it will require a move up. But I don’t think the Steelers will want to sacrifice a lot of picks to accomplish that. Queen is an easy target with the Cowboys having reported interest in trading for him during free agency.
Using our Dave Bryan’s trade idea as a loose template, I like the Steelers to jump up in the first round to solidify the trenches once again. This is the best move for the current—which we know the Steelers place a heavy emphasis on—and the future as they lock in a potentially elite offensive line for the next decade.
It’s a bonus that Fano can play guard now — and potentially tackle later if Broderick Jones or Dylan Cook don’t work out. Fano is Dane Brugler’s top OL in the class. If he makes it to 12, I like the value a lot.
Others Considered: OG Vega Ioane, WR Makai Lemon, TE Kenyon Sadiq
Spencer Fano Scouting Report
Round Two (53rd Overall) – Jacob Rodriguez/ILB/Texas Tech – 6013, 231 pounds
Trading Queen creates a need that outweighs others (like wide receiver). Maybe Rodriguez doesn’t fall this far, but he should be the Steelers’ top target if he does.
As a former quarterback, Rodriguez has a unique football IQ that could be a force multiplier for the entire Steelers defense–something Patrick Queen never really turned into. I witnessed it firsthand at the Senior Bowl. He got everybody aligned correctly pre-snap in an environment where all had to learn a new defense in just a few days.
He’s also the most decorated defensive playmaker coming out of college in decades, even more than Payton Wilson’s impressive list of accolades from a couple years ago. This would be a home-run pick.
Others Considered: WR Denzel Boston, ILB CJ Allen, S Treydan Stukes
Jacob Rodriguez Scouting Report
Round Two (59th Overall) – Germie Bernard/WR/Alabama – 6012, 206 pounds
Trade: Steelers send No. 76 + No. 99. Texans send No. 59.
Another move up to make sure the Steelers get a receiver they like at the end of the second round. Bernard was a pre-draft visitor and has the size and athletic profile that Mike McCarthy likes at the position. He does everything well, and played a healthy mix of slot and outside receiver to fit in the rotation with DK Metcalf and Michael Pittman Jr.
Others Considered: WR Zachariah Branch, WR Chris Bell, ILB Jake Golday
Germie Bernard Scouting Report
Round Three (85th Overall) – Kamari Ramsey/S/USC – 6002, 202 pounds
Not every selection will be a pre-draft visitor, and Ramsey fits the description of the type of defensive back the Steelers have looked at. He has played a strong mix of safety and nickel and is capable of being a chess piece in Patrick Graham’s defense. Given the Steelers’ crowded secondary, he could focus on backing up Jalen Ramsey at free safety in the beginning.
Others Considered: S Jalen Kilgore, OG Keylan Rutledge, QB Drew Allar
Kamari Ramsey Scouting Report
Round Four (135th Overall) – Carson Beck/QB/Miami (FL) – 6046, 233 pounds
The Steelers have spent too much time scouting quarterbacks not to take one. And Beck has several traits they are looking for, including his track record as a winner and his size at nearly 6-5. Their view of Mike McCarthy as a QB whisperer suggests they will give him as many projects as possible until one sticks.
Others Considered: CB Tacario Davis, QB Garrett Nussmeier, WR Ja’Kobi Lane
Carson Beck Scouting Report
Round Five (161st Overall) – Ephesians Prysock/CB/Washington – 6033, 196 pounds
Prysock has all the traits to turn into an impact starter, and the Steelers have gravitated toward th long, rangy athletes at cornerback. He wouldn’t need to see the field right away with a crowded stable of defensive backs, but he has plenty of long-term upside.
Others Considered: WR/KR Kendrick Law, WR Josh Cameron, S Michael Taaffe
Ephesians Prysock Scouting Report
Round Six (216th Overall) – Kaden Wetjen/WR-KR/Iowa – 5090, 193 pounds
Calvin Austin III and Kenneth Gainwell both departed in the offseason, which means the Steelers need a kick and punt returner. Wetjen is the top return specialist in the draft with six total return touchdowns in college.
Others Considered: OT Aamil Wagner, CB Thaddeus Dixon, WR Caleb Douglas
Kaden Wetjen Scouting Report
Round Seven (230th Overall) – Josh Cuevas/TE/Alabama – 6033, 245 pounds
Cuevas is versatile enough to be a rotational backup tight end, and to play H-back or fullback in certain personnel packages. He’s a committed and aggressive blocker and has enough receiving skills to be a dependable option on passing downs, either running routes or blocking.
Others Considered: DL David Gusta, RB Jaydn Ott, TE Matthew Hibner
Josh Cuevas Scouting Report
Round Seven (237th Overall) – Brett Thorson/P/Georgia – 6012, 237 pounds
The Steelers brought back Cameron Johnston, but they didn’t even keep him over Corliss Waitman after last year’s training camp competition. Johnston is 34 years old and has dealt with injuries in each of the last two seasons. Thorson has a relationship with Johnston as a fellow Aussie, so it could be a decent pairing for another training camp competition this year.
Others Considered: WR CJ Daniels, QB Sawyer Robertson, TE John Michael Gyllenborg
Brett Thorson Scouting Report
A United flight traveling from Chicago to New York City diverted to Pittsburgh International Airport on Saturday afternoon for what was described as a “reported threat.”
According to information provided by the Allegheny County Airport Authority and FBI Pittsburgh, United Flight 2092 diverted to Pittsburgh and landed safely.
The passengers have deplaned safely, and no injuries have been reported.
“The plane was diverted and landed at Pittsburgh International Airport,” FBI Pittsburgh said in a statement provided to KDKA-TV. “All passengers and crew safely evacuated the aircraft. FBI Special Agent Bomb Techs and Special Agents are on the ground coordinating with local authorities.”
The airport authority has said that law enforcement is on the scene and investigating.
This is a developing story, and will be updated.
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