World
US 'sleepwalking' into WWIII, experts warn nation is underprepared: 'We do not have our Churchill'
The U.S. is “sleepwalking” into a global war against its top adversaries united under an axis of “malign partnerships,” and experts are sounding the alarm that neither the U.S. military nor the public are prepared for World War III.
In late July, a body of non-governmental national security experts, first tasked by Congress in 2022 under the Commission on the National Defense Strategy, released an evaluation of the U.S.’ overall security strategy put forward by the Biden administration two years ago.
The commission found that after decades of post-Cold War policies that cut defense spending and reduced investments in the security sector, Washington, D.C., is “not prepared” to counter Beijing in open conflict, let alone a multi-front war against China, Iran, North Korea and Russia.
Chinese and Russian warships take part in joint naval drills in the East China Sea, on Dec. 27, 2022. (Xu Wei/Xinhua via AP, File)
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The commission, which included four Republicans and four Democrats who served under the Clinton, George W. Bush and Obama administrations, looked to make clear the lack of preparedness was not the fault of a single administration, but rather the failure of a generation of leaders to identify and counter the growing danger posed by authoritarian nations, as well as to adequately explain the threat to the American public.
The experts explained the U.S. and its allies are facing a threat not seen from global powers since WWII, as Europe is witnessing the largest land war on the continent since 1945 – a war in which Russia is receiving aid from China, Iran and North Korea.
The threat of a major war between nation states, not just rogue militants or terrorist groups, looms in the Middle East, and the potential for open conflict in the Indo-Pacific also remains a serious concern.
“There’s been a generalized failure across our political class in educating the American public of the severity of these threats and the danger that they represent,” Amb. Eric Edelman, who served as vice-chair for the 2024 commission as well as co-chair or vice chair for prior commission reports, said during a briefing to reporters hosted by JINSA this week.
Chinese President Xi Jinping, right, and Russian President Vladimir Putin look toward each other as they shake hands prior to their talks in Beijing on Thursday, May 16, 2024. (Sergei Bobylev, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP, File)
“Historically, I’m sad to say, that when we’re faced with these kinds of challenges, we have typically responded after a catastrophe,” he added, referencing events like Pearl Harbor and 9/11. “Perhaps we can draw from some different lessons in history.”
The experts pointed to the decrease in defense spending – which has been in a downturn since 1952 when the U.S. allocated nearly 17% of its GDP for defense compared to the 3% allocated today – and warned this investment in security is not enough to adequately counter adversaries like China.
After reviewing unclassified war games, the commission found that even with Washington’s efforts to ramp up weapons stockpiles following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the U.S. would likely still exhaust its munitions inventories within three to four weeks if it were to engage in open conflict with Beijing.
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U.S. Army soldiers, from the 3rd Battalion, 321st Field Artillery Regiment of the 18th Field Artillery Brigade out of Fort Bragg North Carolina, conduct live fire testing of early versions of the Army Tactical Missile System at White Sands Missile Range, New Mexico, on Dec. 14, 2021. (John Hamilton/U.S. Army via AP, File)
Some munitions like anti-ship missiles are estimated to last only a few days, and once expended, it will take years to replace the munitions.
Edelman pointed out that this is not a justification for ceasing military aid to Ukraine and highlighted that a direct war against an adversary like China or Russia would be substantially more expensive, let alone a global conflict not seen since the 20th century.
Battalion 120 territorial defense takes part in training exercises near the Belarus border in Chernobyl, Ukraine, on March 16, 2024 as the war between Russia and Ukraine has been going on for the last two years. (Photo by Gian Marco Benedetto/Anadolu via Getty Images)
“Preparing ourselves for defense is essentially an effort to deter conflict,” Edelman said. “Whatever the cost of defense is going to be, it’s going to be paltry in comparison to what the cost of a war would be.”
Near the end of World War II, the U.S. allocated more than 40% of its GDP for its defense budget in 1943 and 1944, and the commission warned that modern wars, as seen in Afghanistan, Iraq and now Ukraine, are lengthy engagements.
“The United States must therefore ready its forces and its industrial base for the potential of protracted conflict,” the commission’s report said.
However, the experts also warned that preparing the U.S. for a global power struggle cannot be remedied by just throwing money into the defense budget, there also needs to be a “shift in culture.”
Mara Rudman, commissioner and former deputy assistant to the president for National Security Affairs during the Clinton and Obama administrations, pointed to steps China has been taking over the last several decades that have given it an edge over the U.S., including in its technology sectors and relationship building in Latin America, Africa and recently, the Middle East.
A view shows facilities under construction, which are owned by TALCO Gold Chinese-Tajik antimony and gold mining joint venture, at the Konchoch deposit in western Tajikistan Nov. 3, 2021. TALCO Gold, jointly owned by Tajikistan’s state metals firm TALCO and China’s Tibet Huayu Mining Co, plans to begin commercial production of antimony, a metal used in batteries and fire retardants, from the Konchoch deposits by October 2022. (REUTERS/Nazarali Pirnazarov)
“They spent the last 20 years building the Belt and Road Initiative, making sure that they control processing and mining for most of the critical minerals that we need for a range of different weapon systems we have, but also for our phones and for the kinds of cars we need to build, and for the batteries that we need to have across the board,” she told reporters this week. “That’s something we need to overcome.”
There has been an increasing push in Republican circles in the U.S. to move away from international involvement, contributing to a rise in isolationism that is similar to U.S. sentiments ahead of World War II, and experts are sounding the alarm that this needs to change if Americans do not want to find themselves embroiled in another global war.
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“It’s going to require leadership, and it’s going to require educating the American public,” Edelman, who served under the Bush administration, said.
The experts on the bipartisan commission were in agreement that the American people not only need to be better educated by their leadership but trusted that they can decide what is best for their nation when properly informed.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, right, meets with a delegation led by Secretary of the Security Council of Russia Sergei Shoigu on Sept. 14, 2024, just days before the Russian official traveled to Iran. (KCNA via REUTERS )
Both the Biden-Harris administration and the Trump campaign were briefed by experts on the results of the commission.
While the White House and Harris campaign have not publicly commented on the findings, the former president’s response to the report seemed to run counter to what the commission urged, as former President Donald Trump called it “stupid” during a rally in late August – prompting the experts to question whether Trump had been properly briefed by his campaign.
“I really think it’s impossible to read the report that they’ve delivered and not believe that we are as a nation…sleepwalking into a great and potentially historic catastrophe,” host of the event and JINSA’s Charles & Randi Wax senior fellow, John Hannah, said. “We are not on the brink of a national crisis – in many ways, we’re already deep into a crisis.
“And we do not have our Churchill at the moment,” Hannah, who also served during the Bush administration, added. “The commission on the National Defense Strategy has fulfilled its mission. Now we need everybody else to play their part around the country and in the halls of power in Washington.”
President Trump is meeting Germany’s leader at the White House after sidelining his European allies in the decision to attack Iran. Oil and gas prices surged and stock markets fell, after U.S. and Israeli officials signaled that strikes on Iran would intensify.
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U.S. Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee described what he believes is the “best option” for Americans looking to flee Israel amid the ongoing unrest across the Middle East.
Huckabee said overnight, “We are getting a lot of requests regarding evacuating from Israel from American citizens who are currently in Israel or who have family here,” and that there are “very limited” options available.
“As of now, the best is utilizing Israel’s Ministry of Tourism shuttle bus to Taba, Egypt and getting flights from there or going on to Cairo for flights back to the U.S.,” Huckabee said on X. “Not sure when Ben Gurion Airport in Tel Aviv will reopen. Hopefully soon, but even when it does, there will be VERY limited flights with priorities to those who already were ticketed by El Al. Doubtful that other airlines will fly in/out for a while.”
“The Ministry of Tourism is operating buses to Taba. That crossing is further away, but it’s open 24/7. There are some flights from Taba, but there are also options to get to Cairo, and it’s operating normally except to Middle Eastern countries. To get out, it’s the best option for now,” Huckabee added.
U.S. Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee, left, and emergency personnel at the site of an Iranian missile strike on a residential building in Tel Aviv, Israel, on March 1, 2026. (Alex Brandon/Pool/AFP via Getty Images; Ronen Zvulun/TPX Images of the Day/Reuters)
Huckabee also said he does not recommend Americans exit via Jordan at this time, as “Flights are not consistent and access across the Allenby crossing has limited hours.”
“All of our personnel from [the] embassy are sheltering in place, but I realize you may need to get people out and back home and not continue to incur hotel costs,” the ambassador wrote.
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People take shelter in Tel Aviv on Sunday, March 1, 2026, after Iran launched missile barrages following attacks by the U.S. and Israel on Saturday. (Ronen Zvulun/Reuters)
U.S. Embassy Jerusalem said in a statement early Tuesday morning that it is “not in a position at this time to evacuate or directly assist Americans in departing Israel.” It also mentioned the Israeli Ministry of Tourism’s buses to Taba.
“To be added to the passenger list for a shuttle, you must register via the Ministry’s evacuation form,” it said.
A firefighter works to put out a fire in Tel Aviv after Iran launched missiles into Israel on Saturday, Feb. 28, 2026. (Tomer Appelbaum/Reuters)
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“The U.S. Embassy cannot make any recommendation (for or against) the Ministry of Tourism’s shuttle. If you choose to avail yourself of this option to depart, the U.S. government cannot guarantee your safety,” it added.
Hours after Israel and the United States launched attacks on Iran on Saturday, Tehran launched retaliatory strikes on Israel and US military assets located in several Gulf countries.
Iran has since struck targets in Israel as well as US military assets in Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Iraq, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
While the Iranian attacks initially focused on US military assets, Gulf states said Tehran has expanded attacks targeting civilian infrastructure including hotels, airports and energy facilities.
What sites has Iran hit in Gulf countries?
US military assets
On Saturday, Bahrain said that a missile attack targeted the headquarters of the US Navy’s 5th Fleet, located in the capital, Manama.
Kuwait’s Defence Ministry said that Ali al-Salem airbase came under attack by a number of ballistic missiles, all of which were intercepted by Kuwaiti air defence systems.
In Qatar, the Defence Ministry says it “thwarted” attacks on the country in accordance with a “pre-approved security plan”, intercepting “all missiles” before they reached the country’s territory. On Saturday, Iran had targeted the Al Udeid airbase, which hosts the US forces, the government said.
Over the past four days of the conflict, attacks on Gulf countries have intensified, and governments in the region say they have intercepted large numbers of Iranian missiles and drones.
Bahrain said its air defence systems have destroyed 73 missiles and 91 drones launched by Iran since the start of the latest conflict.
The UAE Defence Ministry spokesperson said that 186 missiles were launched and 172 of them were destroyed. One missile landed on UAE territory. Additionally, 812 Iranian drones were monitored, and 755 of them were intercepted.
Qatar’s Ministry of Defence said that three cruise missiles were detected and intercepted since Saturday. Additionally, 101 ballistic missiles were detected, and 98 were intercepted. Thirty-nine drones were detected, and 24 were intercepted. On Monday, the Qatari Defence Ministry said in a statement that the air force downed two Iranian SU-24 fighter jets.
US embassies
Early on Tuesday, a “limited fire” broke out at the US embassy in the Saudi capital of Riyadh after it was hit by two drones. The attack caused “minor material damage” to the compound, the Saudi Ministry of Defence said in a statement.
Black smoke was seen rising over Riyadh’s Diplomatic Quarter, which houses foreign missions, after the attack, the Reuters news agency reported.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Kuwait released a statement on Tuesday saying that a “treacherous Iranian attack” targeted the US embassy building in Kuwait. This came a day after videos emerged that showed smoke emerging from near the embassy in Kuwait City.
The statement called the attack a “flagrant violation of all international norms and laws, including the Geneva Conventions of 1949 and the Vienna Convention of 1961 on Diplomatic Relations, which grant immunity to diplomatic buildings and their staff even in cases of armed conflict.”
On Monday, three US jets crashed in Kuwait. The US military blamed the crash on “friendly fire”, but a Kuwaiti statement did not give a reason for the incident.
The US embassy in Kuwait on Tuesday suspended operations until further notice, citing the “ongoing regional tensions”.
Energy infrastructure
Qatar’s state-run energy firm and the world’s largest producer of liquefied natural gas (LNG), QatarEnergy, announced on Monday that it had halted LNG production following Iranian attacks on its operational facilities in Ras Laffan and Mesaieed in Qatar.
Iranian officials have publicly denied targeting QatarEnergy.
Saudi Arabia shut down operations at the Ras Tanura plant, its biggest domestic oil refinery operated by Saudi Aramco, after a fire broke out at the facility that officials said was caused by debris from the interception of two Iranian drones.
Iran’s Tasnim News Agency quoted an unnamed Iranian military source as saying: “The attack on Aramco was an Israeli false flag operation,” adding that Israel’s goal was “to distract the minds of regional countries from its crimes in attacking civilian sites in Iran.”
“Iran has announced frankly that it will target all American and Israeli interests, installations and facilities in the region, and has attacked many of them so far, but Aramco facilities have not been among the targets of Iranian attacks so far,” the source told the agency.
Tasnim quoted the source as saying: “According to data provided to us by intelligence sources, the port of Fujairah in the UAE is also one of the next targets of the Israelis in the false flag operation, and this regime intends to attack it.”
Airports
Airports have been targeted in Abu Dhabi and Dubai in the UAE, and also in Erbil, the capital of the autonomous Kurdish region in Iraq. Officials have blamed Iran for the strikes, though Tehran has not publicly claimed responsibility for the attacks on those facilities.
An Al Jazeera correspondent reported that Erbil International Airport was targeted twice on Saturday, with a drone attempting to target the airport and air defences intercepting and shooting it down.
Qatar’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Majed al-Ansari told a news conference on Tuesday that there were attempts to attack Hamad International Airport, but they all failed.
At Abu Dhabi’s Zayed International Airport, at least one person was killed and seven wounded during what the facility’s authority called an “incident.”
The Dubai media office wrote in an X post that part of Dubai International Airport “sustained minor damage in an incident”, without specifying what the incident was or who was behind it.
The region’s airspace, one of the busiest in the world, has been closed in the wake of the conflict, stranding tens of thousands of travellers. About 20,000 passengers have been stranded in the UAE, while almost 8,000 people are also stuck in transit in Qatar as the airspace remains closed.
Qatar Airways, Emirates and Etihad, which together operate more than 1,000 flights daily, have suspended operations. Emirates on Monday announced limited flight resumption, but normal operations have not started.
Hotels and residencies
The Interior Ministry of Bahrain said on Saturday that several residential buildings in Manama had been hit, reporting on X that the civil defence was engaged in firefighting and rescue operations at the affected sites.
On Saturday, Iran fired 137 missiles and 209 drones across the UAE, its Ministry of Defence said, with fires and smoke reaching the Dubai landmarks of Palm Jumeirah and Burj Al Arab.
Videos circulating on social media showed smoke emerging from the entrance of a five-star luxury hotel, Fairmont The Palm, in the Palm Jumeirah area.
Qatar’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson al-Ansari said on Tuesday that Iranian targets are not just military, but all of the country’s territory. He did not go into detail about which parts of Qatar are specifically being targeted.
Al-Ansari said that all red lines have been crossed; from the north to the south of Qatar, Al Jazeera’s Laura Khan reported from Doha, Qatar.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran had targeted a hotel complex in Bahrain because it was hosting US soldiers.
“We are not targeting our brothers or neighbours in the Persian Gulf. But we are targeting US targets, and this is clear,” Araghchi said on Tuesday.
“We started by attacking their military bases, and they evacuated their military bases and moved them to hotels and created human shields for themselves. We try to target military personnel, infrastructure and facilities helping the US and its army in launching operations against Iran.”
Why is Iran targeting civilian infrastructure in the Gulf?
One of the reasons why the Iranians are resorting to hitting civilian infrastructure in neighbouring countries is to “demonstrate their military capabilities,” Luciano Zaccara, Iran and Gulf analyst at Qatar University, told Al Jazeera.
“Iran is retaliating against all the attacks, not in one place, but in almost 10 simultaneously,” he said.
“The other thing is the political message they want to give that if Iran is attacked, the impact will be global,” Zaccara said, noting that the main message is that not only Iran, but the economy of the whole region, will be affected.
“And neither the US, the region, nor the consumers of energy are able to continue this way,” he said.
Zaccara added: “But at this point, they [Iran] don’t care that much, considering that they have been under sanctions for a long time. So it’s not affecting the Iranian economy that much. And the fact that the oil price is going up – even though they export very little – means they are still surviving.”
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