Washington

Why Jerome Powell Could Be the Most Important Person in Washington Between Now and 2024

Published

2 years ago

November 18, 2022

Why Jerome Powell Could Be the Most Important Person in Washington Between Now and 2024

As Nancy Pelosi’s tenure because the Speaker of the Home of Representatives ends, and newly empowered Republicans put together to launch investigations of Hunter Biden’s enterprise dealings, it’s clear that the subsequent Congress received’t get a lot executed. The midterms have additional hollowed out the ranks of reasonable Republicans who’re keen to work with Democrats on bipartisan laws. And the brand new Speaker, Kevin McCarthy, due to the Republicans’ slim majority, will probably be largely beholden to the Freedom Caucus, which represents the (let’s be well mannered) populist, fruitcake wing of the G.O.P.

The Biden Administration received’t be completely blocked. With the Democrats having retained management of the Senate, they need to be capable to get extra nominations to the judiciary and different workplaces confirmed, which is important. Plus, the President will nonetheless be capable to conduct international coverage and subject government orders. However this week’s ruling from a federal appeals courtroom that halted the Administration’s student-loan plan—a ruling that appears prone to go all the best way to the Supreme Courtroom—highlighted a few of the constraints that Joe Biden will probably be working underneath.

After all, intervals of divided authorities aren’t essentially disastrous. The nation has been via plenty of them earlier than, and many individuals on Wall Avenue imagine they maintain extremist wings of each events in test, thus assuring the upkeep of a established order that’s favorable to enterprise pursuits and capital. However even from a cynical Wall Avenue perspective, there are two upcoming challenges that policymakers might want to handle decisively: the expiration of the debt ceiling and the risk (and maybe the fact) of a recession. In each instances, the Home Republicans appear prone to sit on their arms, hoping {that a} dangerous economic system will assist them in 2024. The onus to get one thing executed, although, will fall on the Biden White Home, and a Washington policymaker who doesn’t face party-political constraints: Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve.

The primary order of enterprise is ensuring the federal authorities can maintain working for the subsequent couple of years. Sooner or later within the coming months, this can require a increase within the debt ceiling, which, in flip, will want approval from each homes of Congress. Formally, that’s not Powell’s enterprise—he’s in command of financial coverage. In actuality, although, Powell, like the remainder of us, has an enormous stake in ensuring this subject will get resolved in a well timed trend. If it doesn’t, the U.S. Treasury will ultimately attain a degree when it may well’t subject extra bonds to finance the remainder of the federal government, creating the prospect of a default that might virtually actually convey on a worldwide monetary disaster. If this occurred, stabilizing the economic system would seemingly fall on Powell.

Essentially the most smart factor can be for the Democrats to boost the debt ceiling within the upcoming lame-duck session, utilizing their majority within the Home to get it permitted there, and the reconciliation course of to get it via the Senate. However our previous buddy Joe Manchin has expressed reluctance to go down this route, and different Democratic senators may have reservations. “We’d like to do the debt restrict,” a White Home official informed Politico. “That doesn’t magically create the votes to get the debt restrict executed.” If the problem doesn’t get resolved now, will probably be punted to the brand new Congress, the place the Republicans can have extra energy.

That’s the place Powell is available in. Having served in George H. W. Bush’s Treasury Division and been nominated to Fed chairman by Donald Trump, he has the G.O.P. roots, in addition to the institutional clout, to make the case to Republicans—at the very least the few who will hear—for elevating the debt ceiling. The argument is an easy and nonpartisan one: undermining the creditworthiness of the U.S. authorities is a kamikaze mission that might tank the monetary system and the broader economic system, destroying the political prospects of these accountable. Even when Powell avoids urgent this political level, he wants to begin making the financial argument immediately, each in his public speeches and his non-public communications with lawmakers.

Powell, in fact, already has one other tough problem on his arms: bringing down inflation with out plunging the economic system right into a recession. Between June and October, the inflation fee fell from 9.1 per cent to 7.7 per cent, however it’s nonetheless far above the Fed’s official goal of two per cent. Since March, the Fed has raised the important thing rate of interest it controls from near-zero to shut to 4 per cent, and economists count on one other half-point fee enhance subsequent month, adopted by additional hikes early subsequent 12 months. Mortgages charges, consequently, have soared to seven per cent, their highest degree in twenty years, and issues are rising that further fee will increase will trigger a recession.

In deciding how far to boost charges, Powell and his colleagues on the Fed are enjoying for very excessive stakes, and the outcomes of the midterms have raised them even additional. In a correctly functioning system of governance, there are two normal instruments for coping with a big financial downturn: Congress passes a fiscal stimulus or the Fed cuts rates of interest. But when a recession does hit subsequent 12 months, and Congress is, certainly, gridlocked, the duty of reviving the economic system would fall squarely on the Fed, which isn’t essentially outfitted to deal with the duty alone. That makes it much more essential to keep away from a recession within the first place.

How seemingly is a recession? That’s anyone’s guess. For what it’s value, a Bloomberg survey of economists this month places the possibilities of one beginning throughout the subsequent twelve months at sixty-five per cent, or virtually two in three. Not all economists are so gloomy. Earlier this week, Goldman Sachs stated it thinks the USA will get via 2023 with a slowdown in development fairly than an outright stoop. Earlier this month, Powell himself stated it was nonetheless attainable for the Fed to attain a “delicate touchdown,” though he additionally cautioned, “I feel nobody is aware of whether or not there’s going to be a recession or not, and, if that’s the case, how dangerous that recession can be.”

Since Powell spoke these phrases, the Labor Division has introduced that the inflation fee fell additional than anticipated in October, with costs rising by simply 0.4 per cent over the month. On Tuesday, the Division stated that the rise final month in producer costs—the costs that companies pay for his or her inputs—was even smaller: 0.2 per cent. These encouraging developments on inflation have prompted some economists to name for Powell and the Fed to pause its interest-rate hikes, and, over the previous week, the inventory market has swung forwards and backwards as traders assess the chance that the central financial institution might change course.

To date, Powell hasn’t reacted publicly to the most recent information—on Congress or inflation. The chance of him issuing any political commentary is zero. Like his predecessors, he zealously guards the Fed’s independence, and avoids doing—or saying—something that would convey it into query. However like all Fed chairs, he’s additionally nicely conscious that the central financial institution doesn’t function in a political vacuum. Because the Republican Get together veers additional and farther from the precepts of accountable authorities, he should know that the duty that rests on his shoulders is rising. ♦

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Washington

What Oregon football’s Dan Lanning said about Ducks’ matchup vs. Washington

Published

58 mins ago

November 26, 2024

Press Room

What Oregon football’s Dan Lanning said about Ducks’ matchup vs. Washington

The No. 1 Oregon football team will look to cap a perfect regular season at home this week against rival Washington at Autzen Stadium Saturday night.

The game is set to kick off at 4:30 p.m.

Here are some highlights from Oregon coach Dan Lanning’s weekly press conference Monday night.

Oregon football’s Dan Lanning talks Washington QBs Will Rogers and Demond Williams Jr.

Washington has played two quarterbacks — fifth-year senior Will Rogers and true freshman Demond Williams Jr. — all season, but will keep who it plans to start against the Ducks secret until game time Saturday.

No matter who starts for the Huskies, the Ducks are going to prepare for both.

“This is a team that’s played multiple quarterbacks throughout the season so we’ve seen a little bit of both guys and they’ve had times where they’ve had both guys out on the field at the same time,” Lanning said. “I don’t know that it presents a huge challenge, either way we were going to prepare for both because they’ve utilized both throughout the year.”

Mississippi State transfer Rogers has started every game this season for the Huskies but has struggled in recent weeks. The senior has completed over 70% of his passes but with just 14 touchdowns and seven interceptions. The freshman Williams took over for Rogers in the second half of Washington’s recent 31-19 win over UCLA and impressed. He has 369 passing yards, 217 rushing yards and four total touchdowns.

“He’s a guy that can operate, he has great athleticism but he can make great throws as well,” Lanning said of Williams. “I don’t see a huge change in their system. They’re both guys that can operate the system. I think he just becomes a threat from a run game standpoint with what he can do with his legs. They do a good job of matching their scheme to those guys’ traits and skillset.”

Dan Lanning speaks on rivalry with Washington and what it means to him

Lanning, who has yet to beat the Huskies in his two seasons at the helm in Eugene and most recently lost to Washington in the Pac-12 Championship last season, downplayed what kind of motivation recent history would give the Ducks.

Lanning said that rivalries is what makes college football special, but also said that Saturday’s game was another opportunity to get better.

“Ultimately, it is another game, it’s the next game,” Lanning said. “You don’t get out there playing with emotion, it’s about execution over emotion. These games are going to have emotion, that’s the way these games are played, but that’s not what’s going to lead to success on the field.”

When asked whether he thinks his players would be more motivated due to Washington’s recent three-game win streak against the Ducks, Lanning once again said that “motivation is overrated.”

“It’s always about performance,” Lanning said. “It’s always about what we’re able to do on the field. Motivation is overrated. Our guys have to want to go out there and execute at a really high level. Since the beginning of the season we’ve talked about playing our best football at the end of November. We’re there. This is our opportunity to go play our best football against a good team.”

Lanning and Oregon’s players last season aren’t the only ones with potentially extra desire to beat this specific team. Oregon cornerback Jabbar Muhammad, a former Husky, will face his former team for the first time on Saturday as a rival.

“I’m sure it means a ton,” Lanning said of Muhammad. “In fact, I know it means a ton. He knows that it’s more about going out there and executing than anything else.”

Dan Lanning on UW coach Jedd Fisch: ‘They adapt to the personnel that they have’

Though the Ducks and Huskies have had tight battles in each of the last three meetings, UW’s team in 2024 is strikingly different from the team that suited up in purple in 2022 and 2023.

Washington returned just 40 players from its national title runner-up team a year ago, along with most of its coaching staff, which is led by former Arizona coach Jedd Fisch.

Lanning was complimentary of Fisch, who he had played against before while he was at Arizona, and the job he’s done in Seattle this season.

“What they’ve always done a good job of is adapting to the personnel that they have and taking advantage of it,” Lanning said. “You see things that cause stress on both sides of the ball. It’s obviously a different defense now that they’re running at Washington but they still cause stress. They make it tough for you to game plan because they have answers in their scheme and again they make an impact out there on the field.”

Alec Dietz covers University of Oregon football, volleyball, women’s basketball and baseball for The Register-Guard. You may reach him at adietz@registerguard.com and you can follow him on X @AlecDietz.

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Washington

Washington Nationals Free Agent Infield Target Has ‘Bust’ Potential

Published

9 hours ago

November 25, 2024

Press Room

Washington Nationals Free Agent Infield Target Has ‘Bust’ Potential

The Washington Nationals are heading into the winter with the potential to make some big splashes to improve their team.

It was another tough season for the Nationals in 2024 with just 71 wins. However, the team featured a lot of talented young players and the lengthy rebuild could come to an end soon.

Due to Washington having a big difference between their payroll now and their payroll last season, the team could be spending a lot of money on free agents this winter. In fact, one estimate noted the Nationals could field a team with a payroll of $35 million if they made no offseason acquisitions.

It’s just one reason why many experts are bullish on the Nats adding some veterans around the young core, which makes a lot of sense to help improve the roster. The Nationals have a few positions where adding those players makes a lot of sense.

One of the positions that is arguably the biggest need is at first base. There are a lot of potential players to pursue in free agency that could make sense. One player who could be the top option is Pete Alonso.

The slugging first baseman is arguably the best player at the position, and should have plenty of suitors. However, Alonso is not a perfect player and Zachary D. Rymer of Bleacher Report highlighted why he could have bust potential.

“How big of a deal is it that Alonso is coming off his worst season?,” he wrote. “It was his worst according to his .788 OPS, anyway, and there are real issues underneath that number. A career-high rate of ground balls is one. He also didn’t pull as many fly balls as he usually does. More generally, the aging curve for right-handed-hitting, right-handed-throwing first basemen is rough. Even Albert Pujols didn’t last long as a star after turning 30, and Alonso will arrive at that point on December 7.”

Since coming up to the Majors, the 29-year-old has been one of the best power hitters in baseball, with only Aaron Judge having more home runs during that span.

Even though he has been an excellent power hitter, 2024 was a down season for a player going into a contract year, at least by his standards. Alonso saw a drop in home runs and OPS in 2024, which could be concerning for a player about to turn 30.

The Nationals have had some bad misses recently on big contracts with Patrick Corbin and Stephen Strasburg. Washington hasn’t made any big moves recently, as they have been waiting for their young core to develop, along with the costs of those contracts to come off the books.

With a lot of young, talented players, the time to strike in free agency and make a splash seems like it should be now for the Nationals. However, if they target Alonso, they have to be mindful that he could be a bust with a drop in power numbers.

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Commanders’ Terry McLaurin Focused on Cowboys Lesson Not Titans Redemption

Published

17 hours ago

November 25, 2024

Press Room

Commanders’ Terry McLaurin Focused on Cowboys Lesson Not Titans Redemption

As soon as the game ended in the Washington Commanders’ Week 11 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles conversations started shifting toward the long break and how much time the team had before it could get rid of that bad feeling against the Dallas Cowboys.

Now, following another Commanders loss – to the hands of those Cowboys – and even more bad feelings stemming from it, while some are talking about if this team can get right against the Tennessee Titans it’s going to be critical they take their time to fully digest their third-straight loss first.

Washington receiver Terry McLaurin made a point of emphasizing this fact in his postgame conversation with local media following the Week 12 loss.

Washington Commanders receiver Terry McLaurin.

Nov 10, 2024; Landover, Maryland, USA; Washington Commanders wide receiver Terry McLaurin (17) looks on from the field during final minute of the game against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Northwest Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Amber Searls-Imagn Images / Amber Searls-Imagn Images

“I don’t want to look too far to Sunday because Sunday’s going to take care of itself next week,” McLaurin said. “We got to get some things fixed in the film room, so we’re already looking forward to looking at the film and just having ‘Tell the Truth Monday’ like (head coach Dan Quinn) says. I mean we all got to look at ourselves in the mirror and figure out what we can do better.”

To McLaurin’s point, as a team the Commanders have to get better, especially on offense where the unit failed to score on two possessions starting in the Dallas end of the field after defensive and special teams plays set the group up for early success.

Across the organization Sunday night the message of everyone coming together to fix the issues was common. From coaches to players the unit is focused on fixing the unit, but it is going to take some hard-focused individual advancement to do that as well.

“I just want to continue to try to control what I can and keep making sure that we have the right attitude and approach as we come into practice and the games,” McLaurin said. “Trying to make a play when the ball comes to me and just controlling that aspect of my job, and I try to provide a spark when I can. …As an offense, we have to find a better job of staying on the field. I think that was a strength of ours in the first half of the season and it’s not right now. So we got to figure out how to get that back to being a strength of our offense because when we’re tempo, when we’re staying on the field, it allows us to keep the playbook open and continue to put pressure on the defense.”

McLaurin also said nobody is hanging their heads on this team right now. That they still have confidence in what they can do individually and as a team.

While that wasn’t physically true on Sunday after the game – there were plenty of heads hanging in the home locker room after the loss – it is true from a mentality standpoint. Even the multiple guys who put the loss fully on their own shoulders, kicker Austin Seibert and safety Jeremy Reaves just to name a couple, echoed the sentiment that they are and can be better.

So don’t expect this Washington squad to give up on itself even as some start to move it out of the competitive conversations it was in just weeks ago. And if every Commanders player on the roster and coach on the staff takes the same approach McLaurin is conveying here, then there’s another chance to see the old production come back in Week 13 – when the time comes.

Stick with CommanderGameday and the Locked On Commanders podcast for more FREE coverage of the Washington Commanders throughout the 2024 season.

• Commanders ‘Going to Give’ Cowboys Plenty to Defend Says Zimmer

• Terry McLaurin’s 86-Yard Touchdown Stuns, But Commanders Miss Extra Point

• Commanders Rival Cowboys’ Micah Parsons Channeling Fighter’s Mentality

• Commanders Lean on Leadership to Regain Momentum Before Cowboys Matchup

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