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New poll illustrates the depth of Washington’s political divide

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For Republicans, the election in Washington is in regards to the economic system and crime. For Democrats it’s about abortion, local weather and defending democracy. For each side, it’s us vs. them. And  maintaining “them” out of energy.

Whereas Tiffany Smiley is exhibiting adverts about closed Starbucks in Seattle and the rising price of deviled eggs and beer, Patty Murray’s featured a younger girl from Texas who needed to journey to a neighboring state for “reproductive healthcare.”

In an open-ended ballot query asking, “What are an important components that may assist you to resolve the way to vote?”, Republican voters cited the economic system #1, adopted by social gathering identification and crimen, then taxes and spending. Democrats named abortion #1, adopted carefully by social gathering identification, then candidate attributes and environmental points. The economic system was #5.

What’s new right here is that social gathering labels are close to the highest of the checklist of necessary voting components. Voters have all the time taken social gathering identification into consideration when deciding the way to vote, however recently partisanship has performed a stronger function in voting choices.

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What’s extra, that partisanship is basically what political scientists name “damaging partisanship.” For instance, throughout the “social gathering /ideology” class of vote components, many of the solutions have been issues like, “I cannot vote for any Democrats” or “No Republicans till they rid themselves of Trump.”

The Dobbs resolution was a wake-up name to Democrats and socially liberal Independents who might have been disheartened by the Purple Wave narrative. Dobbs appears to have triggered consciousness that not solely are abortion rights in jeopardy, however that elections have penalties throughout a spread of points, so they’d higher concentrate.

Dobbs shifted the controversy from the economic system to the tradition wars. It additionally flipped the election from being a referendum to a alternative. Each these shifts give Democrats home-field benefit in Washington state.

Democrats have lengthy had a numeric benefit in Washington, which is what made the January ballot outcomes so notable. They confirmed Republicans inside three factors of Patty Murray and the generic legislative vote. May the Purple Wave wash over Washington?

By July, after Dobbs, the Democrats’ benefit in social gathering identification had grown from 7 to twenty factors, taking Murray and the generic Democratic legislative and congressional candidates with it, to leads of 19-20 factors.

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By September, the Democratic social gathering identification benefit was again all the way down to 11 factors, indicating that issues are again to “regular.”  Regular in Washington since 2008 has been a few 11-12-point identification benefit for Democrats.

January’s Purple Wave and July’s Blue Surge have been each principally as a result of fluctuations on the Republican aspect. Republican identification bounced from 18% in July 2021 to 29% in January 2022 to 22% in July to 27% this month. Democratic identification in that very same interval solely moved between 36% and 40%.

This means that greater than abortion politics are at work. Donald Trump’s refusal or lack of ability to go away the stage might have as a lot to do with the Republican fluctuation because the Supreme Court docket does. The January 6 hearings, the Mar-a-Lago search, and all the remainder have been extra within the information than the Dobbs resolution over the previous months.

Nationwide occasions and tendencies present a context during which particular person native elections happen. Elections are decided by voters’ serious about a combination of societal tendencies, native points, private circumstances and particular person candidates. Most elections this yr are in congressional and legislative districts, the place particular person candidates sometimes weigh extra closely.

However social gathering identification is enjoying a bigger function than ever. In an period of sharply outlined partisanship and ideologically divided events, these ballot outcomes counsel that Tip O’Neill’s well-known maxim, “All politics is native,” has been flipped. It could be extra correct now to say that “All politics is nationwide.”

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Would the Purple Wave have continued with out the Dobbs resolution? We’ll by no means know. These components play otherwise in Washington than in Indiana or Florida. But it surely’s not exhausting to think about that with out the choice and the Trump circus, the election right here would have had a fairly totally different tenor.





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Washington

Wizards have no answers for Kevin Durant in loss to Nets

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Remark

NEW YORK — The chants began within the first quarter and drifted down from the Barclays Heart rafters: M-V-P! M-V-P! M-V-P!

The Brooklyn Nets had one on the ground Wednesday evening; the Washington Wizards didn’t. And that was the distinction within the Nets’ 113-107 win.

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Kevin Durant was cooking from the opening tip-off, scoring 16 factors within the first quarter and ending with a game-high 39 to go together with 5 rebounds and 5 assists as Brooklyn’s major playmaker. The hassle adopted a 45-point outburst Monday that was a season excessive.

“He’s an MVP-level participant for a purpose,” Wizards Coach Wes Unseld Jr. mentioned. “He will get to a spot and raises up, should you don’t get the ball out of his arms, it’s just about make or miss.”

Outdoors of Durant, the Wizards (11-11) saved practically each different member of the Nets in relative examine. Kyrie Irving was quiet for 3 quarters earlier than heating up within the fourth and ending with 27 factors and 5 assists.

“It’s so arduous to cease both a kind of guys after they get going,” Wizards middle Kristaps Porzingis mentioned. “Tonight was KD’s evening. I imply, he’s one of the best participant on the earth. He’s very arduous to cease, particularly when he’s feeling good.”

Washington was fueled by Porzingis (27 factors, a career-high 19 rebounds), Bradley Beal (25 factors) and Kyle Kuzma (25 factors) — however bought little in the way in which of manufacturing from anybody else.

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Porzingis traced his current run of sturdy play to well being.

“My physique’s feeling effectively, that’s one factor,” he mentioned. “And mentally, I’m in a great place and enjoying my sport, being aggressive. Attempting to determine methods how I could be higher for my teammates. What can I do? It’s a good sport immediately, however want we got here out with a win. It will have been a unique feeling proper now. However yeah, myself individually, I like the way in which, I’m enjoying and the way in which I’m shifting, and issues are clicking.”

The Wizards struggled on the free throw line, the place they had been simply 23 for 34.

“They’re free factors, and for the nice shooters we’ve got on this locker room, lacking free throws will get beneath your pores and skin fast,” mentioned ahead Corey Kispert, who had eight factors and went 1 for two from the road. “So simply bought to get extra reps up and deal with the road, and that’s myself included.”

Unseld known as them “missed alternatives.”

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“Nobody’s deliberately making an attempt to overlook free throws,” the coach mentioned. “Simply need to have that stage of focus that you’ve got a chance to get some free factors.”

The Wizards additionally struggled from deep. They missed 18 of 24 from past the arc whereas Brooklyn (12-11) shot 42.3 p.c from three-point vary.

The Wizards have dropped 4 of 5.

Right here’s what else to know concerning the Wizards’ loss:

The Nets introduced earlier than the sport that Ben Simmons, the previous No. 1 general choose acquired final season from Philadelphia, would miss at the very least three video games with an higher calf pressure.

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“He was grabbing his knee in the course of the [second quarter of Monday’s] sport and mentioned he wanted to return out,” Coach Jacque Vaughn mentioned earlier than the sport. “Ended up being the again of the knee, so it’s the higher a part of the calf, which ended up being the analysis after we took some imagery.”

The three-time all-star can be reevaluated after the three video games.

Wizards guard Delon Wright is touring with the workforce after his harm standing improved final week. He continues to take care of a strained hamstring and has not but returned to contact throughout exercises however is doing particular person on-court actions.

“You will have the chance to proceed along with his revamp,” Unseld mentioned. “He nonetheless will get his therapies. It’s additionally good for him to form of be round as we’ve added various things, completely different layers to our coverages, some schematic tweaks. …

“It is good to have one other vet within the fold. It helps the group. Simply speaking to him, seeing what he sees. Can he add something to what we’re doing, how we’re doing it? However he is a part of us and has been a part of us. So simply to have him round is sweet.”

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Unseld was an assistant for 3 seasons on Vaughn’s Orlando workers when he was the Magic coach from 2012 to 2015. Unseld mentioned he was working at a summer season camp as an assistant with the Warriors when Vaughn reached out.

“He is an unbelievable human being,” Vaughn mentioned. “He is finished an important job with that workforce. He’s a man that has finished nearly all the things on this league. Began out as a scout, labored his method up.

“Large work ethic, nice household. Love that he has a chance to teach the Wizards. It brings a smile to my face to see him on the sideline.”



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Washington’s Oil Price Cap Won’t Work-And Putin Knows It

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For the previous a number of months the U.S. has been procuring round different superior democracies a scheme to coordinate the location of a cap on the worth Russia can cost on its power exports to deprive Putin of revenues fueling his battle in Ukraine. A virtually 50% rise in Moscow’s influx of oil and fuel export revenues has been pushed by the sector’s skyrocketing costs because the onset of the battle. To Putin’s amusement, Washington’s try and cobble collectively an settlement amongst its allies to cap the worth Russia can cost for its oil and fuel gross sales has not been simple going for Washington.

U.S. allies are rightly circumspect concerning the convoluted design of Washington’s plan in a market that’s way more complicated than the U.S. understands; its capability to perform the acknowledged purpose—terminating Putin’s belligerent conduct in Ukraine; and that it’s proposal gained’t backfire, inflicting substantial prices on the superior democracies, certainly excess of it’s going to on Russia.

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In the meantime enlarged oil and pure fuel revenues nonetheless make their approach to Moscow; the bloodshed of Ukrainians mounts; and the already quite a few casualties of younger Russian male navy conscripts rise exponentially.

Sadly, this isn’t shocking.

In reality, it’s bedeviling why Washington has not proposed more practical coverage devices available that might considerably curb Russia’s oil and fuel export revenues and thus considerably shrink Putin’s battle chest.

It’s arduous to grasp why Washington has not centered on instituting options, together with market-oriented, clear and extra economically intuitive mechanisms drawn from the arsenal of worldwide commerce coverage.

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The Basic Flaws of the U.S. Oil Worth-Cap Scheme

The design of Washington’s proposed oil price-cap is contorted and inextricably fraught with contradictions. Probably the most salient of those is this system depends on command-and-control mechanisms—that’s, non-market-based measures—for setting the ceiling worth (“the cap”).

However that worth isn’t pushed by provide and demand. Reasonably it includes imposing an artificially constructed margin above notoriously difficult-to-estimate Russian per barrel extraction and manufacturing prices.

As in all oil and pure fuel producing nations, not solely do these prices range throughout the wells in Russia’s useful resource producing areas, however additionally they will not be mounted, altering over time. As such prices rise or fall, the U.S. scheme would require altering the extent of the worth cap to take care of consistency. If adjustments within the price-cap weren’t made, incentives and disincentives could be created throughout wells resulting in a loopy quilt of spatial output distortions.

It’s not troublesome to think about that the establishment of such an administrative framework and the distortions it’s going to produce would engender much more danger into world oil and fuel provide and demand than is already the case on account of the battle in Ukraine thus placing upward, not downward, strain on costs for oil and fuel. The chances are this might create a bias in the direction of extra not much less oil and fuel revenues making their approach to Putin’s coffers.

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Washington’s program additionally could be exceptionally troublesome to watch independently, creating alternatives for evasion and corruption—not simply in oil transactions carried out in Russia, however in payments of lading for transporting Russia’s oil and fuel exterior its borders; how customs prices are utilized; insurance coverage charges for oil tankers; and so forth. As anybody who has labored on the bottom in Russia and related kleptocracies (suppose: China) is aware of effectively, such command-and-control measures and alternatives for corruption are precisely the kind of paradigm through which Putin thrives.

In reality, fears have arisen by the U.S. of the potential presence of such aberrant habits—not solely by Russia and its international allies who buy its oil (suppose: India) however even amongst oil and fuel market members inside the G7 nations. This has pushed Washington to contemplate the imposition of a community of secondary sanctions to curb such dishonest. The contemplation of resorting to such steps is prima facie proof that Washington is fearful its chosen paradigm for penalizing Russia is filled with holes.

Extra basically, the design of the U.S. coverage appears to replicate that its core framers and advocates lack deep practitioner information of how the worldwide marketplace for oil and fuel is definitely structured and capabilities. That is odd as there isn’t a scarcity of such specialists and seasoned executives inside the business throughout the U.S., together with in Washington.

Suffice it to say, that market is notoriously complicated and comprised of a large number of geographically dispersed events with extremely differentiated pursuits, lots of whom are extraordinarily refined. To many, this may increasingly belie the truth that oil and pure fuel are comparatively homogeneous commodities that commerce throughout a number of borders each day.

In precept, such homogeneity can foster dishonest on regulatory constraints positioned on oil and fuel exports, corresponding to these to be imposed on Russia. In spite of everything oil and pure fuel will not be branded per se. Certainly, it’s not as if they’re simply marked by totally different colours, smells, or labelling. Nonetheless, info flows monitoring tanker shipments, for instance, are more and more refined and strong—that’s except intentional mislabeling of such provides and different types of evasion and corruption happen.

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Nonetheless, the success and effectiveness of the U.S. price-cap coverage (certainly of any financial coverage) in the end is determined by the extent to which the events involved (the U.S. and the opposite superior democracies, together with their residents, corporations, employees and customers) perceive the goals and the mechanics of the price-cap. Regrettably, on this case, there was a elementary incapability by Washington to reach its messaging.

Maybe the starkest instance of that is that Washington’s pursuit of the price-cap relies on the hope of reaching a number of goals which might be largely inconsistent with each other. In addition they run counter to highly effective market forces.

In a nutshell, the U.S. is looking for to cap oil costs at ranges decrease than the at present excessive market charges generated by the battle in Ukraine to alleviate the softness in world financial development they’ve engendered. But on the identical time, the U.S. is looking for to set a worth stage for oil that’s simply greater than Russian oil manufacturing prices in order to not take away Russian oil provides from the world market that in any other case would exacerbate the autumn in world GDP development. This tangled set of goals of attempting to “have your cake and consuming it too” is without doubt one of the principal causes allies haven’t signed on to Washington’s program.

Skilled framers and executors of public policymaking know effectively the golden rule for fulfillment: If an initiative’s design is overly complicated; its rationale can’t be expressed in a compellingly intuitive method the place the linkage between trigger and impact is abundantly evident; and its workings lack enough transparency, that’s its demise knell.

To this finish, it isn’t a superb signal that in Washington’s marketing campaign to bring-on allies to the price-cap proposal it’s having to reformulate the mannequin time and time once more, inevitably including on “bells and whistles” to search out “takers.” Whereas the price-cap is well-intentioned, it shuns classes from a long time of policy-making—in oil and plenty of different markets: Advanced “Rube Goldberg” schemes virtually all the time fail. Is it any surprise the U.S. is having bother enlisting the assist of its allies?

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Potential Paths Ahead to Undercut Putin’s Targets

The unhappy irony of the U.S. oil price-cap proposal is it stands in sharp distinction to the management Washington displayed in February executing a effectively thought out, complete set of monetary sanctions by the world’s superior democracies on Russia’s banking system, associated establishments and Putin’s cronies quickly after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It amounted to a sanction technique whose cross-country coordination and effectiveness is unprecedented during the last half century. (One must look again to the sanctions utilized to South Africa for its apartheid regime between the Fifties and Nineteen Nineties to discover a comparable technique.)

Are there various sanction methods concerning Russia’s oil and fuel sector Washington ought to contemplate in lieu of its price-cap regime? Sure. Listed below are two.

One could be for the U.S. and its allies to use a uniform tariff on imports of Russian oil and fuel. Collectively coordinated, such a regime would make Russian oil extra costly on world markets thus curbing income accruing to Putin.

In fact, it might additionally improve oil costs customers face within the nations imposing the tariff. However the distinction between this technique versus an oil worth cap oil is that the additional revenues from the tariff would accrue to consuming nations’ treasuries. Would such a hike within the worth of oil consuming nations face increase power prices and thus stunt financial development? Maybe. However not if the governments in query direct the tariff revenues to stimulate home consumption and productive investments: suppose, larger spending directed towards job creation and building in public mass transit or related initiatives.

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A second type of oil-specific sanctions could be for the U.S., allied with a number of different giant oil producers—Canada, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, United Arab Emirates, Brazil, and Kuwait—to ramp up manufacturing and flood the world oil market with further output to drive down oil costs Russia is ready to earn. Such “predatory pricing” could be a sure-fire technique to make the most of oil as a automobile to weaken the muse of the Russian financial system.

This might appear to be a no brainer sanction to be placed on the desk. In idea, not less than. Why?

For starters, the Saudis have just lately moved within the precise wrong way—limiting output. Past Canada it isn’t clear whether or not the U.S. might get the Saudis and different giant oil producers to go together with this strategy. Lots of them have far much less antagonistic—certainly even benign or pleasant—relations with Russia.

Ought to Washington, London, Brussels, and Ottawa be capable to persuade Riyadh to broaden output, that might absolutely drive down oil costs. However it’s unlikely—given the general dimension of the worldwide oil market and the extra quantity of oil the Saudi’s (at present) might produce—that costs would fall dramatically sufficient—and stay at a stage—to inflict vital hurt on Russia’s oil revenues.

To try this, coordinated releases could be wanted from oil consuming nations’ stockpiles, such because the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). And such coordinated drawdowns would have to be each substantial (relative to the present quantity of oil within the world market) and sustained.

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The purpose is to not solely improve provide sizably relative to demand, but additionally ship a credible sign to the general oil market that the supply-demand stability has structurally shifted. Failing to do each will unlikely have the specified affect on oil costs. A absolutely unsatisfactory end result could be one the place an enlargement of provides fails to maneuver costs decrease. In reality, if such a technique does backfire, it might effectively end in oil costs to improve since oil patrons and sellers might lose confidence within the stability and integrity of the market.

Regrettably, the core difficulty for efficient predatory pricing stays this: whereas conceptually flooding the provision of worldwide oil markets to cut back oil costs could possibly be the best strategy to penalize Russia, the fact is that present world oil shares are unlikely to be giant sufficient for this to work.

Equally vital, even when coordinated drawdowns are carried out adroitly and do considerably decrease world oil costs and thus adversely have an effect on Russia, they could additionally engender new dangers to grease consuming nations on the home entrance.

First, there could be heightened nationwide safety dangersexcept our petroleum stockpiles had been capable of be replenished rapidly sooner or later and with low-priced oil.

Second, there could be elevated environmental dangers because the cheaper oil would serve to stimulate consumption and thus emissions of greenhouse gases and erosion of progress made on sustainability.

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Mitigation of such dangers, nonetheless, might be completed if surcharges had been added to our retail costs of fossil fuels with a view to curb extra consumption of them. Certainly, it is a coverage that, as I’ve argued elsewhere, ought to have already been in place within the U.S. Regrettably it has not. Like the gathering of revenues from the import tariff scheme described earlier, these surcharges would go to nationwide treasuries and will fund various power investments and new infrastructure in mass transit, for instance, whereas Russia could be solely capable of obtain low costs.

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As is nearly all the time the case, it’s uncommon to search out financial insurance policies which might be “silver bullets.” A cautious evaluation of the advantages and prices throughout imperfect options—together with their relative workability—should be weighed. The shortage of simplicity, transparency, and safety towards corruption inherent within the oil price-cap scheme all level to its questionable efficacy and the necessity to devise options.



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Watch Live: Brooklyn Nets vs. Washington Wizards, 7:30 PM EST on YES Network

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The Brooklyn Nets are off to a 2-0 begin to their 7-game homestand. Not unhealthy. On Wednesday night time they’ll look to maintain the momentum going towards the Washington Wizards.

The Wiz are proper there within the playoff hunt within the East at 11-10, simply forward of the Nets. They’ve gotten exceedingly nice performances from Kristaps Porzingis and Kyle Kuzma this season.

They’ve been equally proficient on each side of the ball, sitting at about league common in each offense and protection – but when we’re zooming in a bit, over their final three video games they’ve been the worst defensive group in that span. What’s been a significant plus for them is limiting their turnovers. They’re third within the NBA in AST/TO ratio.

Let’s hope that protection continues to falter, at the least for tonight.

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WHO: Brooklyn Nets (11-11) vs. Washington Wizards (11-10)

WHEN: 7:30 p.m. est

WHERE: YES Community (television and app), WFAN-FM (radio)

Sport preview.

Is it going to be that simple this time round? Most likely not, however the stakes are nonetheless pretty excessive. Washington enters with an 11-10 report, Brooklyn at 11-11. This one’s for all of the marbles (play-in place). However whereas Washington is firmly the place they have been projected and Brooklyn has upset, the month of November has seen completely different trendiness for these groups. The Wizards have been fiercely common, by and thru. Good and horizontal. Brooklyn is trending up, with, one way or the other, the Fifth-best internet ranking within the league this month. Who knew? A win received’t be simple, however even with all of the lacking Nets, and the actual fact their report is presently inferior, it is a recreation Brooklyn expects to have.

To take action, they’ll should shut down a near-mirror picture of their very own offense. The Wizards get to the rim nearly as sometimes as Brooklyn (twenty seventh in rim frequency to Brooklyn’s twenty eighth). However that’s what occurs when your principal scorer is Bradley Beal and Kristaps Porzingis instantly fires up a 16-footer when he touches the ball contained in the arc. Washington is considered one of 5 groups that takes extra mid-range pictures than the Combating Kevin Durants, per Cleansing the Glass. Additionally they take far fewer threes.

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For extra on the Wizards, try Bullets Endlessly.



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