For Tehran, the attack was a response to an Israeli operation that killed seven senior Iranian officers of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps at an Iranian compound in Damascus, Syria. For Israel, the Iranian response demands its own reprisal. Gen. Herzi Halevi, chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces, said Monday that “the launch of so many missiles and drones to Israeli territory will be answered with a retaliation.”

What that would look like was unclear at the time of writing, though a new Israeli attack seemed in the cards. Iran and Israel have been locked for years in a tacit shadow war, punctuated by airstrikes, assassinations and acts of sabotage. But the current round of escalation has sharpened the prospect of open war between the two Middle East powers — a volatile explosion that would likely lead to spillover violence across the region.

Iran has signaled that it does not want to engage in a full-blown war, either on its accord or through key proxies like Lebanese Shiite faction Hezbollah. The regime in Tehran seemed to telegraph its retaliatory strike, which was rebuffed by the combined efforts of Israel, the United States, Britain and Arab states like Jordan, and was left claiming, at best, a symbolic victory. Hard-right members of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government called for a forceful response, while other Israeli allies, including President Biden, urged restraint.

The back-and-forth drama has offered Netanyahu something of a diversion from the more immediate crisis at hand. The right-wing prime minister and his war cabinet have faced mounting international criticism for their management of the war in Gaza, which has led to the deaths of more than 33,000 Palestinians and a humanitarian catastrophe in the besieged territory. But the international response to the Iranian attack offered a reminder to Israelis of both the long-standing support they have in the West, as well as among their Arab neighbors in the region — such as the monarchies of the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia that are similarly distrustful of Tehran’s ambitions and agenda.

For Palestinians, the escalation is a reminder of a status quo that existed before the Oct. 7 terrorist strike carried out by militant group Hamas, which triggered the current conflict. That deeper reality saw the political aspirations of millions of Palestinians undermined by an Israeli occupation regime that has no interest in giving them statehood, suppressed by their own dysfunctional leadership, and largely ignored by international diplomats, including U.S. and Arab officials more focused on the possibilities that could come with better integrating Israel into the region.

There were reports of fresh Israeli attacks on Palestinian civilians in both Gaza and the West Bank over the weekend. “The world overwhelmingly supports Israel, turning a blind eye to Gaza’s plight,” said 59-year-old Moreedd al-Assar, a resident of Nuseirat refugee camp in central Gaza, to my colleagues. “We hold no significance, and the world won’t allow harm to its favored child, Israel.”

Iran, in its statements surrounding its strike on Israel, made no demands for a cease-fire in Gaza and linked their decision to the Israeli attack on their IRGC officers — rather than the suffering of Palestinians whose cause Tehran claims to champion. “After the Iranian attack, it looks like the war [in Gaza] has returned to the starting point, Israel versus Hamas,” wrote Jack Khoury in Israeli newspaper Haaretz. “As such, more than six months after the battle started, there are still 133 Israeli and non-Israeli hostages praying to be set free, while Gaza remains destroyed and bleeding, without any horizon or vision for the day after.”

The focus Monday was on the need for Israel to show restraint. Iran appeared to have carefully calibrated its attack on Israel in such a way that Western governments all rushed to counsel Israel against significant retribution.

“The attack was a failure,” British Foreign Secretary David Cameron said repeatedly in a BBC television interview Monday morning, describing it as a “double defeat” for Tehran in both military and geopolitical terms. “The right thing to do is not to escalate,” he said, when asked how Israel should respond. “We are urging them as friends to think with head as well as heart, to be smart as well as tough.”

“It’s about convincing against a response that escalates,” French President Emmanuel Macron urged. “Isolate Iran, succeed in persuading the countries of the region that Iran is a threat, build up sanctions, strengthen pressures against nuclear activity,” he said. “Then we can find a path to peace for the region.”

The shift in aperture away from Gaza may or may not last. “There are two scenarios: one is that American decision-makers realize that Netanyahu and his war cabinet are pulling NATO into a regional war with Iran, which is not in the interests of the U.S. or EU, and double down with massive pressure on Netanyahu to force a ceasefire in Gaza,” said Fadi Quran, a member of the Al-Shabaka Palestinian policy network, to Politico.

“The second scenario is that Netanyahu’s gamble with a regional war succeeds and Western leaders are cornered into allowing Israel to continue using starvation as a tactic in Gaza, attack [the southern Gazan city of] Rafah and pull the region closer to the abyss,” he added.

Those options include a potential strike on a facility in Tehran or a cyberattack, according to the official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the talks.

“Everybody agrees that Israel must respond,” the official said. “How to respond, when to respond, is the question.”

The United States, United Nations and Israel’s European and regional allies have all called for restraint following the Iranian barrage of more than 300 drones and missiles overnight Saturday.

The five-hour onslaught — which was a response to a deadly Israeli strike on an Iranian diplomatic compound in Syria this month — caused limited damage after being repelled by an international alliance including the United States, France and Britain, with assistance from countries in the Middle East.

That presents Israel with a model for coordination against Iran alongside what analysts describe as an unprecedented strategic opportunity for Israel to return to the international fold — and repair its regional alliances — after frictions over its war against Hamas. But it is still an opportunity that they said Israel could waste if it miscalculates its response and puts a short-term show of strength ahead of longer-term goals.

“This is an opportunity to create a new American-led regional security alignment against Iran if we can take advantage of it,” said Chuck Freilich, former deputy head of Israel’s National Security Council and a senior fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv. “Who would ever have thought that we would be part of a coalition that included the U.K. and France and Jordan and maybe other Arab countries?”

The success of Israel’s air defenses and the allied response in repelling the attack, which caused only minor damage in Israel and one serious injury, means that Israel can act from a position of confidence rather than one of panic, he added.

European leaders on Monday morning reiterated their concerns about the potential for the regional security situation to spiral. “The right thing to do is not to escalate,” British Foreign Secretary David Cameron said in a BBC television interview. “We are urging them as friends to think with head as well as heart, to be smart as well as tough, and to recognize that Iran suffered this defeat, because the attack was a failure.”

French President Emmanuel Macron expressed similar sentiments: “We are all worried about a possible escalation,” Macron told French radio.

U.S. officials have also emphasized to Israel that they won’t participate in any Israeli response amid fears that it could lead to a wider regional war. Israeli officials said they were mindful of the concerns.

“Our allies do not want us to go for an over-the-top response and we want to work with our allies, especially after the success we enjoyed with them,” the Israeli official said. “We don’t have to have cause casualties but it’s important that we do respond, because it sends a message to all those who want to harm us.”

A strike will do little to help Israel in its battle against Tehran’s proxies in the region and concerns over its nuclear program, said Yair Golan, former deputy IDF chief of staff.

“On different levels of intensity, Israel has been fighting Iran for years,” he said. “It will not stop tomorrow or the next day. And it will not stop if Israel reacts right now.”

Israel should focus on its long-term goals by leveraging the energy behind an emerging new alliance against Iran, he said. “We cannot be confused here. Iran has escalated the war,” he explained. “But Israel needs to act smartly in order to strengthen the regional and global front against them.”

The Hamas-led assault on Oct. 7, which killed 1,200 in the communities around Gaza, shattered the sense of security for citizens of Israel. Among the Israeli public, the success in repelling Saturday’s attack restored some national confidence and lessened a sense of international isolation.

“I think we did avoid something terrible Saturday night,” said Yosef Levy, a student buying groceries in Jerusalem on Saturday. Around him, the walls of the shop were plastered with posters showing the faces of Israelis still held captive in Gaza, some faded, some recently replaced. “It was like the world remembered that we are the ones under attack for a minute. I hope it changes something, I hope it ends the war. But I don’t think anything can change until our hostages are back with their families.”

The Israeli public has been polarized on how Israel should proceed in its war, with some prioritizing the return of the hostages through a deal with Hamas, and others prioritizing a push to all-out victory.

“We’re being pulled in multiple directions,” said Leigh Sapir, a 39-year-old attorney from Tel Aviv, after she dropped her toddler off at preschool on Monday, the first day that schools were open since the Saturday night attack. “On the one hand I encourage the government to respond and stand their ground, and on the other, I think the focus needs to be on a hostage deal at this point.”

But there has been little progress on a deal, with Hamas over the weekend rejecting the latest offer from Israel for at least a temporary pause in its offensive in exchange for the release of hostages.

It remains unclear how, if at all, the attack may affect operations in Gaza. Israel’s military called up two brigades of reserves for “operational missions in the Gaza Strip” on Sunday evening, stoking speculation that a Rafah assault could be sped up in the wake of the attack. Freilich said that the force did not appear of the “magnitude” needed for any Rafah operation, adding that it was more likely intended to refresh troops along Gaza’s dividing line than be the start of a buildup.

Golan also said that he didn’t see an Israeli intention to enter Rafah right now. However, the Iranian assault has already had an effect on the war, he said.

“Israel’s goals there are to secure the freedom of the hostages, to dismantle, to find an alternative to Hamas rule in Gaza,” he said. “In order to make that a reality, there’s a new incredible coordination against the Iran. We must leverage that, also in the Gazan context.”