Mr. Lee, 51 years previous, has a staunchly conservative voting file within the Senate, the place he has opposed common bipartisan payments on Covid-19 help and Ukraine, citing concern about federal spending. A constitutional scholar, he’s a member of the Judiciary Committee, which introduced him near Mr. Trump as they labored to approve conservative judges for federal courts.

Polling launched Wednesday by the Deseret Information and the Hinckley Institute of Politics exhibits Mr. McMullin about 5 proportion factors behind Mr. Lee.

Allies of Mr. Lee disputed that the race is shut, and Utah Republicans mentioned Mr. McMullin hasn’t spent vital time working political and donor circles. However some political watchers mentioned the race might form as much as be a real contest for Mr. Lee, whilst he stays a robust favourite.

“That is the toughest race he has had since he took workplace,”

Jason Perry,

director of the Hinckley Institute of Politics, a nonpartisan institute on the College of Utah.

The race provides one other wrinkle to the midterm battle for the Senate, the place Democrats at present management the 50-50 chamber. Mr. McMullin has mentioned that if he wins, he would keep away from each events’ caucuses, not like unbiased Sens. Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Angus King of Maine, who caucus with Democrats.

“They will put me within the provide closet for all I care,” mentioned Mr. McMullin. “People who reject the extremes in our politics are more and more discovering frequent floor, even on points which have divided them for a very long time.”

Mr. McMullin mentioned he envisions himself as a swing vote free to work with each Democrats and Republicans, pointing to the work of Sen.

Mitt Romney

—the opposite Utah senator—on bipartisan infrastructure and gun laws.

On Thursday, Mr. McMullin met with native enterprise homeowners at Candy Sweet Co., recognized for its taffy and dark-chocolate orange sticks. They needed to understand how Mr. McMullin would tackle inflation in addition to supply-chain issues and labor shortages that bedevil them.

Mr. McMullin criticized Democrats for what he termed overspending, pointing to the get together’s 2021 American Rescue Plan as encouraging worth will increase. However he additionally mentioned his state’s Republican-controlled legislature was excessive on abortion, including that restrictive insurance policies might discourage individuals from wanting to maneuver to the state. He took a jab at Mr. Lee’s file, saying, “Being a senator is about greater than voting no.”

Utah regulation bans abortions after 18 weeks. A set off regulation prohibiting abortions generally is tied up in courtroom.

Mr. Lee’s marketing campaign declined requests for an interview. A marketing campaign aide mentioned inside polling exhibits that Mr. Lee has a much bigger lead than public surveys point out. The incumbent has a big fundraising benefit. As of June 30, he had practically $2.3 million money available, in contrast with Mr. McMullin’s practically $1.3 million.

Mr. Lee’s marketing campaign has run advertisements criticizing Mr. McMullin on supporting background checks for gun purchases and on voting for the Democratic candidate, Joe Biden, for president in 2020, each unpopular stances within the state. Allies of Mr. Lee mentioned Mr. McMullin’s coverage stances have been inconsistent.

“He’s been on each facet of each subject whereas operating for president after which operating for Senate,” mentioned Spencer Stokes, Mr. Lee’s former chief of workers and present marketing campaign adviser.

Mr. McMullin went from Home Republican staffer to last-minute presidential candidate in 2016, when Mr. Trump grew to become the GOP presidential nominee.

He obtained 0.54% of the favored vote nationally, however in Utah, he received 21.5%, coming in third behind Mr. Trump and the Democratic candidate, Hillary Clinton. Certainly one of his votes got here from Mr. Lee, who referred to as it a protest. He had declined to assist Mr. Trump, citing partially his marketing campaign rhetoric proposing a ban on Muslims getting into America.

Divisions over Mr. Trump are set to be entrance and heart on this yr’s Senate race, with Mr. Lee having the backing of Mr. Trump—and Mr. McMullin calling the previous president the explanation he left the get together.

Each the incumbent and the challenger are native Utahns and attended Brigham Younger College. They boast of a pioneer heritage that ties them to the origins of the state, when members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints settled within the Nice Salt Lake Valley in 1847.

Simply outdoors the Utah Days of ’47 Rodeo in Salt Lake Metropolis on Thursday, voter Randy Buck mentioned he could be backing Mr. Lee. “I’m a straight get together kind particular person proper now, as a result of I consider in what the Republicans stand for,” mentioned Mr. Buck, 55, of Ogden, Utah.

Andrew Howlett, 48, of Highland, Utah, mentioned he favored the incumbent. “I respect any politician who has rules and sticks to them…Mike Lee appears to be very constant in his strategy,” Mr. Howlett mentioned. He backed Mr. Trump in 2020, saying, “I beloved the insurance policies, I hated him.”

Others within the state mentioned they have been open to the challenger.

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“We want extra unbiased candidates like McMullin to interrupt the hyperpartisan stranglehold on Congress,” mentioned Tanya Garn, 66, from Layton, Utah, who mentioned she sometimes votes Republican and has given $2,900 to Mr. McMullin’s general-election marketing campaign.

Greg Hatch and Sarah Hatch, of West Jordan, Utah, mentioned they deliberate to again Mr. McMullin. They dislike Mr. Lee’s “blind religion and assist in Trump…that’s in all probability the principle factor,” Mr. Hatch mentioned.

In 2020, Mr. Lee drew criticism over remarks he made at an Arizona marketing campaign rally, wherein he in contrast Mr. Trump to Captain Moroni, an historical army commander within the Ebook of Mormon who impressed troopers to battle for his or her faith, freedom and household. Mr. Lee later mentioned that evaluating the president to a revered determine within the state’s dominant faith was awkward.

“I used to be a kind of individuals whose jaw dropped on the reference, as a result of for me Moroni is an historical prophet, a person of knowledge and braveness,” mentioned Ally Isom, a Republican who unsuccessfully challenged Mr. Lee within the GOP major this yr. “It was brazen, it was exploitative of one thing that was sacred to many people.”

Within the major, Ms. Isom and Becky Edwards, a former state lawmaker, collectively pulled in 38% of the vote, in contrast with Mr. Lee’s 62%. Each girls criticized Mr. Lee for roles he has performed in blocking laws. They declined to make endorsements within the normal election. Mr. McMullin is hoping to win over their supporters, in addition to Democrats and independents within the state.

Utah was final represented by a Democrat within the Senate in 1977; its final Democratic governor left workplace in 1985. This yr Democrats determined towards nominating a candidate and as an alternative backed Mr. McMullin, who calls himself a reasonable conservative.

“The truth is Utah Democrats will not be aggressive in statewide elections,” mentioned former Utah Democratic Rep. Ben McAdams, who served in Congress from 2019 to 2021. “There are quite a lot of issues that many Democrats didn’t agree with Evan on, however there are issues that we are able to discover frequent floor on.”

Write to Natalie Andrews at Natalie.Andrews@wsj.com