After state revenues fell nearly $50 million short of expectations last budget year, Utah lawmakers were warned Tuesday there may be more economic ups and down ahead as they gear up for the 2024 Legislature that begins next month.

Already, the consensus revenue estimates agreed to by the Legislature and Utah Gov. Spencer Cox have dropped dramatically from just over a year ago, when there was more than $4 billion in new money anticipated.

For the budget year that begins July 1, 2024, the estimated revenue increase is nearly $638 million, split between $504.2 million in ongoing funds and almost $133.6 million in one-time monies.

But after adjustments made to the base budget by the Legislature’s Executive Appropriations Committee Tuesday, the amount available for new ongoing spending fell to just $7 million.

Those adjustments included setting aside $160 million for a yet-to-be determined tax cut, $100 million for approximately a 3% pay increase for public employees and $335 million for new infrastructure projects.

The state’s chief economist, Andrea Wilco, made it clear to the committee there’s no guarantee that all of the projected ongoing revenues, which largely come from income and sales tax collections, will materialize.

“Because of our uncertainty, and because we’re still a little bit worried about the volatility in the revenues, we think as much as $150 (million) of that could be high risk revenue. So in my usual voice of warning, please be cautious on how you spend it,” Wilco said.

The nearly $50 million deficit in the budget year that ended June 30, caused by income tax collections that were lower than expected, was covered by the state’s budget buffers, bolstered last year to more than $15 billion.

The economy is getting back to normal after big increases in sales tax collections during the COVID-19 pandemic fueled by $2.1 billion in federal funding and stimulus payments that led to more consumer spending, the state’s senior economist, Travis Eisenbacher, said.

“As the economy and behavior more generally has normalized and recovered from the pandemic … we’re continuing to see that trend unwind,” he told the committee during a report on revenue volatility.

That, “along with more moderation in spending overall, leads us to expect a return to more typical, modest year-over-year growth in this piece of the (tax) base,” Eisenbacher said, noting past surges in housing prices and stocks helped push up income tax collections.

“Across all of the state’s major funding streams, we’ve seen levels of growth over the last three years well in excess of what would be considered normal as a result of many of these pandemic-era circumstances,” he said.

Such “extreme values tend to be just that and they don’t persist over time,” Eisenbacher advised, adding that while for the most part, Utah saw surpluses rather than deficits during the pandemic, “what goes up can come down.”

The governor’s proposed $29.5 billion budget, released Tuesday, would spend about $250 million of the state’s budget reserves, according to Sophia DiCaro, the executive director of the Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget.

The rest would be continue to be saved, DiCaro told reporters Monday, so “the state is still able to make debt payments and be in a healthy position to weather any kind of storm. That being said, we do feel like the economy is showing signs of strength.”

She said last budget year, there wasn’t “a lot of confidence” in the revenue estimates. “What we’re seeing now is more of a normalization to what things looked like prior to the pandemic.”

DiCaro acknowledged the messaging might seem “confusing” but said the state’s financial situation “is playing out the way we had estimated.”

SALT LAKE CITY— Utah Gov. Spencer Cox released his budget for the 2025 fiscal year Tuesday. Among his long list of priorities to improve the Beehive State is building more starter homes.

“The single greatest threat to the future prosperity of our state is the price of a home … the unaffordability of homes in our state,” Cox said at a press conference Tuesday.

Funding more starter homes in Utah 

The Utah governor wants to invest $150 million into building 35,000 new starter homes by 2028. Most of the money would go to the State Infrastructure Bank to ease the cost of the infrastructure needed for new developments like water, sewer and roads. The State Infrastructure Bank can provide low-interest loans for publicly-owned infrastructure.

The governor would beef up the Utah First-Time Homebuyer Assistance Program with an additional $50 million. That program offers certain Utahns up to a $20,000 loan to buy their first home. The money can go toward interest rates, to make a down payment, or to pay closing costs.

“This is about our kids … our future … the American dream and the Utah dream … and making sure it is available to the next generation,” Cox said.

Other budget items 

Other items included in the governor’s budget include:

• $80 million to help Utah’s water and watersheds,
• $122 million to help transportation and air quality,
• $170 million for investments in rural Utah,
• $193 million to combat statewide homelessness, and
• $56.2 million for workforce expansion.

The Utah Legislature will take up the governor’s budget in January. All funding must be approved by state lawmakers.

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Who’s Playing

Southern Utah Thunderbirds @ Utah Utes

Current Records: Southern Utah 2-5, Utah 5-2

How To Watch

• When: Tuesday, December 5, 2023 at 9 p.m. ET
• Where: Jon M. Huntsman Center — Salt Lake City, Utah
• TV: Pac-12 Networks
• Follow: CBS Sports App
• Fubo (Try for free) For a limited time, new subscribers can save $20 on Fubo’s Pro, Elite, and Premier plans
• Ticket Cost: $1.98

What to Know

Southern Utah has quite the challenge ahead of them as they’re expected to be blown off the court. They will head out on the road to face off against the Utah Utes at 9:00 p.m. ET on Tuesday at Jon M. Huntsman Center. Southern Utah is hoping to put an end to a four-game streak of away losses.

Last Saturday, the Thunderbirds came up short against the Redhawks and fell 73-63.

Meanwhile, the Utes beat the Warriors 79-66 on Thursday. The over/under was set at 145 points, so nice work oddsmakers; you were right on the money.

Among those leading the charge was Keba Keita, who scored 14 points along with 7 rebounds. Branden Carlson was another key contributor, scoring 17 points along with 6 rebounds.

The Thunderbirds have not been sharp recently, as they’ve lost four of their last five matchups, which put a noticeable dent in their 2-5 record this season. As for the Utes, the victory makes it two in a row for them and bumps their season record up to 5-2.

While only Utah took care of their fans the last time they played, both teams pleased bettors by covering the spread. Looking ahead, the game looks promising for Utah, as the team is favored by a full 22.5 points. For those looking to play the spread, take note: Southern Utah is a solid 4-1 against the spread when playing as the underdog.

This contest is one where the number of possessions is likely to be a big factor: Southern Utah have been smashing the glass this season, having averaged 34.3 rebounds per game. However, it’s not like Utah struggles in that department as they’ve been even better at 39.9 per game. Given these competing strengths, it’ll be interesting to see how their clash plays out. Come back here after the game to find expert analysis of the match and other NCAA Basketball content.

Odds

Utah is a big 22.5-point favorite against Southern Utah, according to the latest college basketball odds.

The oddsmakers were right in line with the betting community on this one, as the game opened as a 22.5-point spread, and stayed right there.

The over/under is set at 154 points.

See college basketball picks for every single game, including this one, from SportsLine’s advanced computer model. Get picks now.

Series History

Utah won the only game these two teams have played in the last 8 years.

• Nov 13, 2015 – Utah 82 vs. Southern Utah 71