NBA Rumors: New lottery rule helps Utah, hurts Grizzlies

The top-five pick rule will date back to 2025. The Utah Jazz picked fifth in 2025 and second in 2026. Under the new rule, they can’t land in the top five in 2027.

But the Jazz traded that pick to the Memphis Grizzlies in February for Jaren Jackson Jr., which means Memphis won’t be able to receive it since streaks will be triggered by the original team, not the team holding the pick. Two issues here.

First, the framework. The NBA explains this rule under a section titled “Pick Restrictions For Repeat Lottery Winners.” Is landing the fifth pick really a winner? One year ago, the Jazz were distraught when their pick landed fifth, because the true franchise-changers that teams want to win are commonly landed with the first or second pick. In the future, if a team ends up fifth one year, then fourth the next, should they really be punished for landing first in the third year? Or even fifth again? I would argue no, that the top-five rule reaches too far.

I am understanding of wanting to prevent a team from picking first in consecutive years. But anything beyond that feels like a massive overreach that could cause more problems than intended when the goal is supposed to be to eliminate tanking.

Second, there’s the reality that the Jazz did trade that pick. Now the Grizzlies have it — through the rights of a pick-swap structure. But if this rule passes, Memphis wouldn’t be able to receive an unprotected pick. Grizzlies fans would obviously be crushed by the news. This pick was the most valuable of the assets Memphis got back for one of its stars, and it happened under a set of rules that didn’t include a three-year streak cap. That Jazz-to-Grizzlies pick is being retroactively devalued because of a league’s arbitrary decision to start the clock in 2025, but it also gives us an example of what could happen in future years to any team.