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Odds are increasing for the return of El Niño. Here’s what that could mean for California

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Odds are increasing for the return of El Niño. Here’s what that could mean for California


The cussed La Niña local weather sample that gripped the tropical Pacific for a uncommon three years in a row is waning, and the chances of an El Niño system forming later this yr are getting stronger, in keeping with latest meteorological studies.

The El Niño-La Niña Southern Oscillation, typically known as ENSO, has a significant affect on temperature and rainfall patterns in several elements of the world, with La Niña typically related to drier-than-normal circumstances in California, particularly the southern a part of the state.

El Niño, alternatively, is linked to an enhanced chance of above-normal rainfall in California, together with accompanying landslides, floods and coastal erosion, although it isn’t a assure.

(Paul Duginski / Los Angeles Instances)

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The newest outlook from the World Meteorological Group says there’s a 90% probability of a return to “ENSO-neutral” circumstances from March to Might, with that chance lowering because the summer time goes on.

That lower “will be seen as a possible precursor for El Niño to develop,” with a 35% probability of El Niño growing from Might to July, the company says.

Longer-lead forecasts present an excellent stronger probability of El Niño growing from June to August — 55% — although the forecasts are “topic to excessive uncertainty related to predictions this time of yr.”

The forecast is price keeping track of. Within the winter of 2015 and 2016, one of many strongest El Niños on report contributed to excessive wave power alongside the West Coast and report coastal erosion on many California seashores. That winter additionally noticed a record-breaking hurricane season within the central North Pacific, vital drought within the Caribbean and one of many globe’s hottest years on report.

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A equally sturdy El Niño within the winter of 1997-98 noticed highly effective precipitation in California, together with a sequence of storms that ended with 17 deaths and greater than half a billion {dollars} of injury within the state.

And within the winter of 1982-83, El Niño was linked to close record-setting precipitation within the northern Sierra and one of many state’s costliest flood seasons in a long time, together with decimated piers and 1000’s of broken properties.

The system can even gasoline hotter circumstances all over the world, WMO Secretary-Basic Petteri Taalas stated in an announcement.

“La Niña’s cooling impact put a short lived brake on rising world temperatures, regardless that the previous eight-year interval was the warmest on report,” Petteri Taalas stated. “If we do now enter an El Niño section, that is prone to gasoline one other spike in world temperatures.”

David DeWitt, director of the Nationwide Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Local weather Prediction Heart, stated the WMO forecast largely aligns with predictions on the federal company.

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However El Niño and La Niña usually are not the one components that drive world and regional local weather patterns, he stated, as evidenced by the notably moist winter in California this yr, which defied expectations of a drier-than-normal season pushed by La Niña.

The unusual “triple dip” of La Nina marked the primary time within the twenty first century that the system appeared three years in a row, however the system started weakening across the finish of December.

Across the similar time, one other sample often called the Madden-Julian Oscillation moved in, signaling sturdy precipitation, DeWitt stated. The eastward-moving disturbance of clouds, rain, wind and strain typically manifests as anomalous rainfall.

In truth, whereas El Niño-La Niña accounts for local weather variability on a seasonal timescale — three months or longer — the Madden-Julian Oscillation typically drives sub-seasonal climate inside that bigger body. The NOAA likens the methods to bicycles: If ENSO is a stationary bicycle in the course of a stage, the Madden-Julian Oscillation is sort of a bike rider “getting into the stage on the left and pedaling slowly throughout the stage, passing the stationary bike (ENSO), and exiting the stage on the proper.”

DeWitt stated very lively Madden-Julian Oscillations this season introduced “a variety of atmospheric river exercise, in addition to even some extra conventional kinds of storms that don’t essentially faucet the tropical moisture.”

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“It’s actually been this lively MJO, or Madden-Julian Oscillation, that has resulted, primarily, in an above-normal precipitation sign for the Southwest U.S., particularly California, versus the below-normal precipitation that you’d count on related to La Niña,” he stated.

In different phrases, whereas the looks of El Niño later this yr may point out wetter than regular circumstances, there are different components that might overcome it. Sadly, whereas forecasters have some skill to foretell El Niño and La Niña upfront, the perfect lead time for Madden-Julian Oscillations is just a few weeks, DeWitt stated.

And whereas some states, corresponding to Florida, are extra reliably affected by ENSO, it’s liable for solely about 10% to twenty% of seasonal variability in California, DeWitt stated. “So which means El Niño-La Niña doesn’t clarify 80% of the winter precipitation in California.”

“El Niño-La Niña does give us some helpful data,” he stated, “however its necessary to acknowledge what the boundaries of that data are.”

Instances workers author Rong-Gong Lin II contributed to this report.

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California woman dies from Fresno County's first human case of rabies in more than 30 years

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California woman dies from Fresno County's first human case of rabies in more than 30 years


A California woman died of rabies after allegedly being bitten by a bat in her classroom, according to Fresno County health officials.

The woman, later identified as Leah Seneng, 60, marks the first human case of rabies in Fresno County since 1992.

“In general, rabies is a disease that affects the brain, and it is very rare. But when it develops, it can cause very serious consequences,” said Dr. Trnidad Solis, Fresno County Health Department’s deputy health officer. “It’s transmitted through saliva; it is not airborne.”

RABIES PATIENT BECOMES FIRST FATAL CASE IN US AFTER POST-EXPOSURE TREATMENT, REPORT SAYS

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Leah Seneng, 60, was the first human case of rabies in Fresno County since 1992, according to county health officials. (GoFundMe)

Seneng, who was an art teacher at Bryant Middle School in Dos Palos, was bitten by the bat when she was attempting to rescue it in her classroom, local outlet ABC30 reported.

She first came into contact with the bat in October, but did not display symptoms until approximately a month later, according to Fresno County health officials.  She was admitted to the hospital and died four days later.

Bryant Middle School

Leah Seneng was an art teacher at Bryant Middle School in Dos Palos, California. (Map Quest)

PEANUT THE SQUIRREL EARMARKED FOR EUTHANASIA BEFORE BEING CONFISCATED AND WAS RABIES-FREE: REPORT

“The most frequent route of transmission is through the bite of an animal that has rabies. With rabies, unfortunately, there is no cure. So, when symptoms develop, there is no treatment, and often when it develops, it is often fatal. So we want the public to know that prevention is key to preventing rabies infection,” Solis said.

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Fresno County officials do not believe there is a threat to public health at this time, but are working with the Merced County Health Department to identify any other possible exposures and administer vaccines.

Rabies vaccination syringe held in gloved hand.

Health experts recommend people and pets get vaccinated for rabies. (iStock)

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Seneng’s coworkers have set up a GoFundMe account to assist her family during this time.



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Another batch of raw milk from a trendy California brand just tested positive for bird flu

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Another batch of raw milk from a trendy California brand just tested positive for bird flu


  • Two batches of raw milk from a trendy California brand have tested positive for bird flu this week.
  • Bird flu has been spreading rapidly among cattle in the US.
  • Experts say drinking raw milk is dangerous, and can cause food poisoning.

Another batch of raw milk just tested positive for bird flu in California.

Last Sunday, Fresno-based Raw Farm voluntarily recalled a first batch of cream top whole raw milk with a “best by” date of November 27. By Wednesday, the California Department of Public Health announced that a second batch of Raw Farm cream top, with a “best by” date of December 7 had also tested positive for bird flu, based on retail sampling.

“We’re not making a big deal about it, because it’s not a big deal,” Kaleigh Stanziani, Raw Farm’s vice president of marketing, said in a short video posted on YouTube after the farm’s first voluntary recall was announced earlier this week.

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She said there had only been an indication that there might be a “trace element of something possible,” emphasizing that there had been no reported illnesses of Raw Farms cows or positive tests from the cattle.

Raw Farm owner Mark McAfee later told the LA Times that the California Department of Food and Agriculture had requested that his company “hold delivery of further products” until Friday, after conducting thorough testing of two Raw Farms and one creamery on Wednesday. (McAfee could not immediately be reached for comment by Business Insider during the Thanksgiving holiday.)

Raw milk may be helping bird flu spread — but not in the way you might think


raw milk

Containers of Raw Farm raw milk on a shelf at Berkeley Bowl on November 25, 2024 in Berkeley, California.

Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

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Scientists suspect that cross-contamination of raw milk between animals may be one reason the H5N1 virus is spreading rapidly among cows in the US — and could even contribute to the human spread of the virus. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention cautions that dairy workers might be able to contract bird flu by infected raw milk splashed into their eyes.

There is no definitive evidence yet that humans can get bird flu from drinking contaminated raw milk. Instead, health authorities generally recommend avoiding raw milk because of other serious health risks, including food poisoning with bacteria like Salmonella, E.coli, or Listeria.

There are no known health benefits of drinking raw milk. Instead, all evidence suggests that pasteurized milk is just as nutritious, and is safer to consume.

Still, raw milk has become a trendy product among some influencers. Gwenyth Paltrow says she has it in her coffee in the morning.

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Robert F. Kennedy Jr., President-elect Trump’s pick for Health and Human Services secretary, says he wants the US Food and Drug Administration to stop its “war” against raw milk.

Over the summer, “Carnivore MD” Paul Saladino released a raw milk smoothie in partnership with the elite Los Angeles health foods store Erewhon featuring unpasteurized (raw) kefir from Raw Farms, and powdered beef organs.

California has some of the loosest rules around raw milk in the country; it’s generally fine for California retailers like health foods stores and grocers to sell it, raw milk products just can’t be transported across state lines, per FDA rules.


raw milk smoothie

Dr. Paul’s Raw Animal-Based Smoothie includes Raw Farm kefir milk, beef organ powder, as well as blueberries, honey, bananas and other ingredients. It’s $19.

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Dania Maxwell/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images



Michael Payne, a researcher at the Western Institute of Food Safety and Security, told The Guardian that people consuming Dr. Paul’s $19 smoothie were “playing Russian roulette with their health,” and ignoring pasteurization, “the single most important food safety firewall in history.”

California dairy farms have been seeing an uptick in bird flu cases since August. The state has reported 29 confirmed human cases of bird flu, and all but one of those was sourced back to cows.

Last week, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported the first confirmed case of bird flu in a California child from Alameda County. The child had no known contact with infected farm animals, but may have been exposed to wild birds, the California health department said in a statement.

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The child had mild symptoms and is recovering well after receiving antiviral drugs.





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10 of 15 Southern California industries slow their hiring pace

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10 of 15 Southern California industries slow their hiring pace


Southern California’s bosses added 80,700 workers in the past year to a record 8.06 million jobs – but that hiring pace is roughly half of the pre-pandemic job market’s gains.

My trusty spreadsheet – filled with state job figures for Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, and San Bernardino counties – compared employment changes for the region and 15 industries in the year ended in October with the average yearly hiring pace before coronavirus upended the economy.

Yes, there have never been more Southern Californians employed. However, the recent hirings that created the all-time high staffing are far below the average job creation of 159,600 a year in 2015-19.

This is one of many signals of cooler business trends. It’s a chill significantly tied to the Federal Reserve’s attempts to slow what was once an overheated economy.

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But Southern California bosses have another challenge – a shortage of workers. The region’s workforce, a measure of labor supply, is basically flat comparing 2024 to 2015-19. Fewer choices of workers have added difficulty for local businesses trying to meet their staffing needs.

Think of that when you learn that among the 15 Southern California business sectors tracked – hiring in 10 industries is below pre-pandemic years compared with five industries with improvements.

The downs

First, contemplate the 10 industries where the hiring pace has weakened, ranked by the size of the decline …

Professional-business services: 1.14 million workers in October – down 4,600 in a year vs. 24,100 annual gains in 2015-19. This net downturn of 28,700 jobs is unnerving because this white-collar work typically pays above-average salaries.

Construction: 378,700 workers – down 3,100 in a year vs. 16,200 annual gains in 2015-19. A building slowdown due to lofty mortgage rates created this 19,300 reversal.

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Logistics-utilities: 820,800 workers – up 6,800 in a year vs. 25,800 annual gains in 2015-19. What’s at least a temporary oversupply of warehouses in the region may be behind this 19,000 slowdown.

Manufacturing: 558,400 workers – down 15,300 in a year vs. 4,100 annual cuts in 2015-19. This 11,200 drop is continued losses of local factory work tied to high cost of doing business in the region.

Fast-food restaurants: 359,400 workers – up 3,400 in a year vs. 12,400 annual gains in 2015-19. Weaker consumer spending and a hike in the industry’s minimum wage contribute to this 9,000 drop.

Hotels/entertainment/recreation: 268,300 workers – up 3,400 in a year vs. 9,600 annual gains in 2015-19. This 6,200 cooling reflects worker shortages.

Full-service eateries/food service: 339,100 workers – up 1,600 in a year vs. 6,600 annual gains in 2015-19. Inflation making shoppers  pickier is part of this 5,000 cooling.

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Information: 214,200 workers – down 100 in a year vs. 3,700 annual gains in 2015-19. Weakness in tech businesses and Hollywood productions created the 3,800 net downturn.

Personal services: 266,600 workers – up 500 in a year vs. 3,200 annual gains in 2015-19. Again, it is hard to find people to do this work. Thus, a 2,700 cooling.

Government: 1.03 million workers – up 11,600 in a year vs. 12,500 annual gains in 2015-19. This 900 dip is status quo.

The ups

Ponder the five industries where the hiring pace rose in the past year, ranked by the size of the gains …

Social assistance: 512,300 workers – up 28,200 in a year vs. 18,300 annual gains in 2015-19. The 9,900 addition comes as more folks need help at home for healthcare and child care.

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Healthcare: 836,700 workers – up 30,100 in a year vs. 20,900 annual gains in 2015-19. The 9,200 growth parallels the region’s aging population and its need for medical services.

Retailing: 748,300 workers – up 8,300 in a year vs. 300 annual cuts in 2015-19. This somewhat surprising 8,600 improvement may be consumers tiring of online commerce and wanting to get out to shop.

Financial: 364,100 workers – up 4,400 in a year vs. 3,900 annual gains in 2015-19. The minor 500 improvement is a return to normalcy. Super-heated hiring came in the pandemic days thanks to a brief drop in mortgage rates to historic lows.

Private education: 215,700 workers – up 5,500 in a year vs. 5,100 annual gains in 2015-19. This 400 uptick reflects the growing interest in alternatives to public schooling.

Bottom line

While it’s rare for all industries to be growing at the same time – minus, say, just after an economic downturn – this 2024 edition of the winners vs. losers list raises an important issue.

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It appears much of the past year’s job creation is coming from industries that historically pay meager wages. That’s an especially worrisome trend in high-cost Southern California.

Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com



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