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Borenstein: California’s population boom is over, plan accordingly

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Borenstein: California’s population boom is over, plan accordingly


California’s years of main inhabitants progress have ended, and a state forecast means that the numbers may peak by as early as 2030 after which begin to decline.

On the flip of the century, when the inhabitants was about 34 million, state forecasters have been predicting 45 million by 2020 and 59 million by 2040. That isn’t taking place.

As a substitute, California’s inhabitants hit 39.5 million in 2020, dipped all the way down to 39.0 million within the first two years of the pandemic and, in line with knowledge printed by the California Division of Transportation, will max out at about 40.5 million by the top of the last decade.

Whether or not it’s speak of a brand new BART transbay tube, protecting underutilized colleges open or persevering with to sink billions into high-speed rail, it’s time for native and state authorities officers to recalibrate. Tasks that have been conceived primarily based on the belief of an increasing California inhabitants will now not make sense. We shouldn’t hold planning and budgeting as if the state’s numbers will proceed to develop considerably.

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The times of California’s inhabitants growth are over. The Caltrans forecast, ready in 2021, reveals the inhabitants holding at about 40.5 million by 2036 after which dropping to 39.0 million by 2050.

The state’s official projections from the Division of Finance proceed to indicate sluggish inhabitants progress over the following 20 years, reaching 43 million by 2040. However the division plans to revise these numbers by early subsequent yr. Extra essential, even the division’s present projections fall manner in need of its growth forecast on the flip of the century.

Whereas the pandemic utilized strain to the brakes, the slowing in California progress started lengthy earlier than, which raises the query of how forecasters 20 years in the past so badly missed the mark.

There are lots of causes, says Hans Johnson, senior fellow and demographer on the Public Coverage Institute of California. Delivery charges have been decrease than anticipated. Deaths have been larger. Worldwide migration into the state has not been as excessive as forecast.

And, most essential, home migration out of the state has exceeded expectations. Merely put, persons are leaving California for cheaper housing elsewhere, decrease taxes or someplace much less crowded.

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The out-migration has gotten a lot consideration for the reason that begin of the pandemic. However this isn’t a brand new development. For annually of the previous 20 years, extra Californians have left the state for different elements of the nation than have performed the reverse.

Like in the midst of the primary decade of the century, the web out-migration quantity steadily elevated from 2015-19. Then the pandemic hit. Within the first yr, 2020, web out-migration eased a bit however then accelerated quickly the next two years, hitting a document 406,982 in 2022.

Coupled with different demographic developments, together with rising deaths, the pandemic years have produced the state’s first years of inhabitants decline.

Whether or not that continues will depend upon disparate components, comparable to: Will California construct sufficient housing to steadiness provide and demand so extra folks can afford to dwell right here? Will the sharp drop in life expectancy triggered by the pandemic — from about 81 in 2019 to about 79 in 2020 — subside? Preliminary estimates counsel that in 2021, California life expectancy dropped one other half yr, in line with a January report by Johnson and his colleague Eric McGhee.

Nonetheless, California’s inhabitants is growing old, which can improve the demand for well being care and senior dwelling amenities. And it’s turning into extra racially numerous. On the identical time the state is ceding political clout; it misplaced one seat in Congress within the final reapportionment and can possible lose extra after the 2030 census.

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Whereas it’s unsure whether or not the state will proceed to lose inhabitants, the times of rapid-growth projections are over. Which suggests we shouldn’t hold spending cash on tasks that relied on the forecasts of the previous.

We will’t proceed to construct extra public tasks with out recognizing that the necessity for them and the inhabitants base that pays the required taxes might be flattening out. We’re in a brand new period, and it’s time we began planning accordingly.



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California

What California city has the best weather for you? Take our quiz

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What California city has the best weather for you? Take our quiz


California has plenty of options when it comes to finding a place with your preferred weather. If you like cool weather, some cities spend nearly the entire year below 70 degrees. If you hate the rain, there are locations that average just a few inches per year.

The Chronicle gathered data about temperature, precipitation, air quality and extreme weather for 61 places across California, including the 20 most populous cities with data available. In total, 53 of the state’s 58 counties are represented in the analysis.

While there may not be a perfect match with everything you’re looking for, this quiz will help pinpoint a place that gets close.



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California woman dies from Fresno County's first human case of rabies in more than 30 years

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California woman dies from Fresno County's first human case of rabies in more than 30 years


A California woman died of rabies after allegedly being bitten by a bat in her classroom, according to Fresno County health officials.

The woman, later identified as Leah Seneng, 60, marks the first human case of rabies in Fresno County since 1992.

“In general, rabies is a disease that affects the brain, and it is very rare. But when it develops, it can cause very serious consequences,” said Dr. Trnidad Solis, Fresno County Health Department’s deputy health officer. “It’s transmitted through saliva; it is not airborne.”

RABIES PATIENT BECOMES FIRST FATAL CASE IN US AFTER POST-EXPOSURE TREATMENT, REPORT SAYS

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Leah Seneng, 60, was the first human case of rabies in Fresno County since 1992, according to county health officials. (GoFundMe)

Seneng, who was an art teacher at Bryant Middle School in Dos Palos, was bitten by the bat when she was attempting to rescue it in her classroom, local outlet ABC30 reported.

She first came into contact with the bat in October, but did not display symptoms until approximately a month later, according to Fresno County health officials.  She was admitted to the hospital and died four days later.

Bryant Middle School

Leah Seneng was an art teacher at Bryant Middle School in Dos Palos, California. (Map Quest)

PEANUT THE SQUIRREL EARMARKED FOR EUTHANASIA BEFORE BEING CONFISCATED AND WAS RABIES-FREE: REPORT

“The most frequent route of transmission is through the bite of an animal that has rabies. With rabies, unfortunately, there is no cure. So, when symptoms develop, there is no treatment, and often when it develops, it is often fatal. So we want the public to know that prevention is key to preventing rabies infection,” Solis said.

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Fresno County officials do not believe there is a threat to public health at this time, but are working with the Merced County Health Department to identify any other possible exposures and administer vaccines.

Rabies vaccination syringe held in gloved hand.

Health experts recommend people and pets get vaccinated for rabies. (iStock)

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Seneng’s coworkers have set up a GoFundMe account to assist her family during this time.



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Another batch of raw milk from a trendy California brand just tested positive for bird flu

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Another batch of raw milk from a trendy California brand just tested positive for bird flu


  • Two batches of raw milk from a trendy California brand have tested positive for bird flu this week.
  • Bird flu has been spreading rapidly among cattle in the US.
  • Experts say drinking raw milk is dangerous, and can cause food poisoning.

Another batch of raw milk just tested positive for bird flu in California.

Last Sunday, Fresno-based Raw Farm voluntarily recalled a first batch of cream top whole raw milk with a “best by” date of November 27. By Wednesday, the California Department of Public Health announced that a second batch of Raw Farm cream top, with a “best by” date of December 7 had also tested positive for bird flu, based on retail sampling.

“We’re not making a big deal about it, because it’s not a big deal,” Kaleigh Stanziani, Raw Farm’s vice president of marketing, said in a short video posted on YouTube after the farm’s first voluntary recall was announced earlier this week.

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She said there had only been an indication that there might be a “trace element of something possible,” emphasizing that there had been no reported illnesses of Raw Farms cows or positive tests from the cattle.

Raw Farm owner Mark McAfee later told the LA Times that the California Department of Food and Agriculture had requested that his company “hold delivery of further products” until Friday, after conducting thorough testing of two Raw Farms and one creamery on Wednesday. (McAfee could not immediately be reached for comment by Business Insider during the Thanksgiving holiday.)

Raw milk may be helping bird flu spread — but not in the way you might think


raw milk

Containers of Raw Farm raw milk on a shelf at Berkeley Bowl on November 25, 2024 in Berkeley, California.

Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

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Scientists suspect that cross-contamination of raw milk between animals may be one reason the H5N1 virus is spreading rapidly among cows in the US — and could even contribute to the human spread of the virus. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention cautions that dairy workers might be able to contract bird flu by infected raw milk splashed into their eyes.

There is no definitive evidence yet that humans can get bird flu from drinking contaminated raw milk. Instead, health authorities generally recommend avoiding raw milk because of other serious health risks, including food poisoning with bacteria like Salmonella, E.coli, or Listeria.

There are no known health benefits of drinking raw milk. Instead, all evidence suggests that pasteurized milk is just as nutritious, and is safer to consume.

Still, raw milk has become a trendy product among some influencers. Gwenyth Paltrow says she has it in her coffee in the morning.

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Robert F. Kennedy Jr., President-elect Trump’s pick for Health and Human Services secretary, says he wants the US Food and Drug Administration to stop its “war” against raw milk.

Over the summer, “Carnivore MD” Paul Saladino released a raw milk smoothie in partnership with the elite Los Angeles health foods store Erewhon featuring unpasteurized (raw) kefir from Raw Farms, and powdered beef organs.

California has some of the loosest rules around raw milk in the country; it’s generally fine for California retailers like health foods stores and grocers to sell it, raw milk products just can’t be transported across state lines, per FDA rules.


raw milk smoothie

Dr. Paul’s Raw Animal-Based Smoothie includes Raw Farm kefir milk, beef organ powder, as well as blueberries, honey, bananas and other ingredients. It’s $19.

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Dania Maxwell/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images



Michael Payne, a researcher at the Western Institute of Food Safety and Security, told The Guardian that people consuming Dr. Paul’s $19 smoothie were “playing Russian roulette with their health,” and ignoring pasteurization, “the single most important food safety firewall in history.”

California dairy farms have been seeing an uptick in bird flu cases since August. The state has reported 29 confirmed human cases of bird flu, and all but one of those was sourced back to cows.

Last week, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported the first confirmed case of bird flu in a California child from Alameda County. The child had no known contact with infected farm animals, but may have been exposed to wild birds, the California health department said in a statement.

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The child had mild symptoms and is recovering well after receiving antiviral drugs.





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