When Jedd Fisch first arrived in Tucson, Arizona was coming off a winless 2020 and a financial disaster from the Kevin Sumlin era. That first year, Fisch and the Wildcats took their lumps, finishing 1-11. The next year, Arizona moderately improved to 5-7 with some hints of promise. Then in 2023, Arizona exploded onto the scene, finishing 10-3 and winning its first bowl game since 2015.

But Fisch left for Washington late in the coaching carousel. Coming off that 10-win Alamo Bowl season, Arizona starts over again. San Jose State head coach Brent Brennan comes to town to (hopefully) continue Arizona’s success.

The bones are there, as starting quarterback Noah Fifita and star receiver Tetairoa McMillan return for another year. But a transition year – both in the literal and coaching sense – is a monumental lift. Brennan has his work cut out for him.

Fans of the Big 12 might have paid much attention to Arizona in years past. The program won its 500th game in 2023. Although both members of the Western Athletic Conference (WAC), TCU and Arizona never crossed paths in the league. The Wildcats joined the college football ranks in 1899, playing as an independent until 1932 and in the Border Intercollegiate Athletic Association (BIAA) before transitioning to the WAC in 1962.

In 1978, Arizona changed its conference affiliation to the Pac-10 – a step up at the time – with in-state rival Arizona State. Since then, the Wildcats played in its many versions, eventually rebranding to the Pac-12. They were among the four schools to bolt from the Pac-12 in the wake of Oregon and Washington announcing their move to the Big Ten.

During its 35-year tenure in the Pac-12, Arizona won just one conference title (1993). It claims six conference championships – three in the BIAA (1933, ’34, ’41) and two in the WAC (’64, ’73).

A Historic 2023

For just the fourth time in program history, Arizona won 10 games in 2023. After beating Oklahoma in the Alamo Bowl, 38-24, Arizona finished ranked 11th in the AP Top 25 and 14th in the College Football Playoff rankings. That was the best finish for Arizona since 2014 (10th) and just the seventh time it finished ranked since joining the Pac-10.

Losses to Mississippi State, Washington, and USC came by a combined 16 points, including two in overtime. The State loss was entirely avoidable, as Week 1 starting QB Jayden de Laura tossed four interceptions. Once Fifita took the reins, Arizona vaulted into elite territory.

The offense finished ninth in the country in points per drive (PPD) scored. The real surprise came on defense, where Arizona improved over 100 spots in PPD, to 27th nationally. Five players went to the NFL, including first-round offensive lineman Jordan Morgan.

Returning a star duo in Fifita and McMillan is a fantastic start for the Wildcats. McMillan finished with 1,236 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns, picking up 15.5 yards per reception. At 6-foot-5, he wins 50/50 jump balls; for proof of his truly ridiculous hands, please see below:

Fifita returns the third-best passer rating from a season ago, behind Heisman Trophy hopefuls in Jalen Milroe (Alabama) and Dillon Gabriel (Oregon). He threw 23 touchdowns to just five interceptions and just nine of his 297 pass attempts graded as “turnover-worthy,” according to Pro Football Focus (PFF).

But it takes much more than a single QB-WR duo to win football games in the FBS. Fifita returns alongside a talented skill corps that includes WR Montana Lemonious-Craig (359 yards last year) and New Mexico transfer RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt (1,190 yards, 17 TDs). Four starters along the offensive line return, as well. However, without Morgan in both the bowl game and ensuing spring game, the offensive line struggled; Fifita was sacked five times.

Ousted Syracuse head coach Dino Babers joins the staff to call the offense. Babers was the offensive coordinator in Tucson from 1998-2000 and was on staff as early as 1995. In ’98, Arizona ranked 18th in total offense and 15th in scoring (34.7 points per game); in ’99, Babers led Arizona to the third-ranked offense in yards.

While offense grabbed headlines in Tucson last year, the defense came through time and time again. The Wildcats ranked 17th in average point margin (+11.6) thanks to a defense that held five FBS opponents to under 21 points and another two under 25 points.

Four of five starters in the defensive secondary return for 2024. As a unit, the secondary ranked in the top-40 against the pass and, over the last three games, the defense logged the third-most takeaways in the country (11). In total, seven Arizona defenders started for a school last season.

Perhaps the most exciting defensive addition is linebacker Tre Smith, a first-team All-Mountain West selection at San Jose State. He followed Brennan to Tucson after recording 66 tackles, 6.5 of them for a loss.

The strength of the unit comes in that linebacking corps, led by Jacob Manu (116 tackles, most in the Pac-12). Those familiar with college recruiting may recognize the name Justin Flowe, a former five-star linebacker, who returns for Year 5. Throughout an injury-riddled career, Flowe has 47 tackles and 26 run stops.

Longtime Texas and Stanford defensive assistant Duane Akina, who has spent six seasons with Arizona, was elevated to defensive coordinator. Akina was a defensive analyst last season after spending eight seasons as Stanford’s defensive backs coach.

A 10-win team that returns its two stars on offense and seven starting-caliber players is a terrific starting point. The strength of schedule year-over-year is relatively consistent. Arizona’s final strength of schedule, according to ESPN’s FPI, ranked 57th in 2023; this year, it ranks 59th. Should the offensive line come together, this could be another fringe top 10 offense.

Arizona rebuilds its defensive front entirely with transfers. Smith and Syracuse transfer DT Kevon Darton (96 tackles, 12 TFL last two years, 20 starts) do give the front seven strong bones. Fold in experience in the linebacking corps and secondary, and Arizona’s defense should, at least, be decent. However, the transfers do have to come together.

The path to another 9+ win season is pretty clear. The Wildcats should be heavy favorites in two of their three non-conference tilts and favorites in at least five conference games. Road games at Kansas State, Utah, and UCF are very difficult, but no games on this slate classify as “unwinnable.”

With returning talent and a similar schedule, Arizona’s ceiling to start this season is right where they left off last season. The offensive line comes together, the defense remains in the top 30, and the Wildcats are looking at a 10-win season.

The worst-case scenario for Arizona is just as clear as its best case scenario. The offensive line, without its anchor Morgan, doesn’t come together. For evidence of what an offense looks like with a star QB and talented skill corps, but without a competent offensive line, see the 2023 Colorado Buffaloes. Fifita doesn’t do much good on his backside.

The second punch comes in losing Fisch to Washington. In a short tenure with Arizona, Fisch turned the Wildcats around from a 1-16 record to a 10-win season in just three seasons. Brennan was a regular bowl contender at San Jose State – far from an easy task – but even the highs were tempered. He finished just 34-48, including 0-3 in bowl games.

Seeing the offensive line get pushed around in Arizona’s spring game and in the Alamo Bowl is concerning. The unit has to mesh quickly, as back-to-back road trips to Kansas State (Week 3) and Utah (Week 5) will test the mettle of the offensive line right away.

Starting from scratch is difficult for any program. It’s a coaching staff with some Big 12 experience, but not much. As Arizona learns the Big 12, it could take some serious lumps. A worse-case scenario is likely still a bowl berth and the Wildcats likely don’t fall short of 6-6.

*Week 3 against Kansas State is a previously-scheduled non-conference game and will NOT count towards Big 12 standings.

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