Although twice as many voters are registered as Republicans than as Democrats, more than half are unaffiliated. That can produce unexpected outcomes, as in 2022 when Peltola won a special election to succeed longtime Republican Representative Don Young, who died in office. Peltola went on to win a full term that November. (Each time, Peltola beat Sarah Palin, the former GOP governor and vice-presidential candidate.) Peltola, however, lost her reelection bid to Republican Nick Begich III in 2024, when she was swamped by a wave of younger, blue-collar voters drawn to the polls by President Donald Trump.

Last month’s primary results produced an almost ideal outcome for Peltola. Under the state’s ranked-choice voting system, candidates from all parties run on the same ballot in the primary, and the top four finishers advance to November. Peltola won 49.5% of the total vote, finishing ahead of Sullivan (who came in at 41.4%). The other two candidates on the general election ballot will both be Republicans — including a retired schoolteacher named Dan J. Sullivan, who Republicans accuse of running to siphon votes from Senator Sullivan. The Republican pileup could make it easier for Peltola to cross the 50% threshold required to win.

Peltola is also benefiting from many of the same tailwinds lifting Democrats in what Alaskans invariably call “the Lower 48.” The Medicaid cuts in the GOP’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act are unpopular in a state where nearly two-fifths of residents rely on the program. Alaska has always been expensive (because of the cost of shipping anything here) but Trump’s tariffs and the spike in oil prices from the Iran War have raised prices further. Remote Alaskan communities now report paying up to $10 a gallon for gasoline and diesel, with some especially isolated places paying twice that. Ivan Moore, an independent pollster based in Anchorage, says that in his quarterly poll measuring local economic sentiment, “confidence in the economy in Alaska right now is no better than at the worst point of COVID.”

All of this has predictably chilled attitudes toward Trump and Republicans. Just two years after Trump carried the state by 13 points, Moore’s latest poll found that the share of Alaskans who disapprove of his job performance now exceeds the share who approve — by double digits.

Peltola also brings unique personal assets to the race. Strategists in both parties acknowledge her deep personal connection to the state. A member of the Yup’ik people and former state legislator, she was the first Alaska Native elected to Congress. Peltola is not a rousing speaker, but she is a comfortable, approachable campaigner; she has made a point of trekking to remote communities by skiff, ATV and small plane. “It is so different when you go there, and hear firsthand, and see firsthand, what the needs are,” she told me.

Her connection with the state is symbolized by her campaign slogan — “Fish, Family, and Freedom.” Partly that reflects her sharp criticism of the corporate fishing interests that many local residents blame for depleting fish stocks through industrial-scale trawling. But it also highlights the importance of fishing to the preservation of Native communities and the broader state tradition of self-reliance. “Almost all the Alaskans I know count on at least six fish for their freezer every year” to feed their family through the winter, she told me.

Though Sullivan has already won two terms, Republicans worry he hasn’t carved out a strong independent identity. A transplant from Ohio and former state attorney general, he’s voted as a much more conventional Republican than fellow GOP Senator Lisa Murkowski, a frequent Trump antagonist. In Moore’s polling, Sullivan’s positive image has declined in parallel with Trump’s. And most Alaska political observers I spoke with give Peltola a slight edge.

Against these many weaknesses, Sullivan’s best asset is the state’s enduring suspicion of the national Democratic Party. Fundamentally, Peltola wants voters to see the election as a personal choice between her Alaska roots and a senator she portrays as the embodiment of Washington’s “rigged system”; Sullivan wants them to view it as a parliamentary choice over which party should set the national agenda.

Those contrasting strategies were clear when the two met in a joint appearance in Anchorage late last month before the powerful Alaska Oil and Gas Association. The oil industry is popular here. “Every Alaskan understands that it is a pivotal piece of our economy,” says Joelle Hall, president of the state AFL-CIO, which has endorsed Peltola. “And they tend to be gracious towards it as a result.”

At the forum, Sullivan positioned himself as the defender of that golden goose. He cited provisions he won in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act raising the state’s share of oil royalty payments and requiring the federal government to make future leases available in deposit-rich regions including the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. He challenged Peltola for not supporting some oil-industry priorities in the House. And above all, he argued that whatever Peltola’s views, electing her would tip Senate control to Democrats hostile to Alaskan drilling. “If my opponent’s liberal Lower 48 allies get power again … they will come after us,” Sullivan insisted. That argument has won Sullivan broad support within the industry.

Peltola emphasized her personal commitment to oil development — including convincing former President Joe Biden to approve the massive ConocoPhillips Willow project on Alaska’s North Slope. But mostly she seemed unsure how to respond. She never offered a clear rebuttal to his central claim — that electing her would inexorably “empower” Senate liberals out of touch with Alaska.

Sullivan tethered that argument to oil development. But versions of it, connected to different local concerns, are also available to Republican Senate candidates facing tough races in other red-leaning states including Ohio, Iowa, Texas and North Carolina.

Raising alarms about a Democratic-controlled Senate probably won’t save all those GOP candidates. But inflaming the doubts red-state voters hold about the national Democratic Party may be the best chance for Senate Republicans to avoid the worst in a year that has already chilled their prospects far beyond Alaska.