Alaska

Alaska sees third La Niña winter forecast in a row

Published

2 years ago

November 7, 2022

Alaska sees third La Niña winter forecast in a row

A canine runs on frozen, snow-covered Goose Lake in Anchorage on Sunday, Nov. 6, 2022. (Casey Grove/Alaska Public Media)

What’s winter anyway?

For lots of Alaskans, it’s a season that’s not completely outlined by a selected interval on the calendar as a lot as, you realize it while you see it. The snow-covered panorama. The frosty breath. Possibly sea ice forming on the shoreline.

It’s secure to say we’re seeing a few of that already this winter, however whether or not the wintry climate stays is a query folks like Nationwide Climate Service local weather researcher Brian Brettschneider are pondering.

Brettschneider — again for our Ask a Climatologist phase — factors to the Nationwide Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s long-term forecast for a 3rd La Niña winter in a row, however he says we will’t draw too many conclusions from the winter we’ve seen thus far.

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Brian Brettschneider: So for instance, final winter, November was the coldest month of the winter for a lot of areas within the southwestern, say, quarter of the state. And the pondering was, you realize, it is a actual harbinger for: It’s going to be only a brutally chilly winter. And it turned out to be, particularly within the southern mainland, you realize, like a high 10 warmest winter. So we have to maintain that in thoughts.

So NOAA simply got here out with their seasonal outlooks, and so they take a look at a few issues. There’s at all times going to be uncertainty on what occurs on comparatively quick timescales. We don’t know the place the jet stream goes to be, and what the trajectory of sea ice goes to be, and so forth. However the largest contributor to the seasonal forecast is La Niña. And extra occasions than not, La Niña winters are colder than common in Alaska. Not each time however a majority of occasions. In order that represents about 40% of the variability. One other essential issue is the evolution of sea ice within the Chukchi Sea after which the the Bering Sea. And it’s sort of getting a late begin proper now. And when that water is open with no ice on it, there’s a whole lot of warmth that may be liberated into the environment, and it retains issues heat. After which the opposite factor is development. The development is warming. You already know, should you simply awoke from a coma, and somebody mentioned, “What do you assume it’ll be? What do we expect the winter will probably be like? It is best to in all probability say, “I don’t know, nevertheless it’s in all probability going to be hotter than winter was once,” simply because issues are hotter now. So these are the three issues that go into our winter outlook. And should you take a look at the winter outlook this yr, it reveals colder than regular temperature, or beneath regular, is favored in Southeast Alaska. Above regular temperatures are favored on the west coast and North Slope, and that’s pushed largely by the traits, current traits, and sea ice. And sort of what we name equal probabilities, so no sign for both above or beneath for, you realize, the the opposite 50% of the state in between Southeast and Northwest.

Casey Grove: You talked about the development, and simply riffing off of, you realize, “Should you awoke from a coma,” what should you had been frozen in ice, you realize, tons of of years in the past, and also you awoke? You simply thawed out. What would you assume was going to occur with the winter?

BB: So let’s say, for instance, this winter finally ends up being — and I’m simply going to make this quantity up — 2 levels colder than regular. Properly, if this particular person had been frozen in ice, you realize, 100 years in the past, and we changed that winter 100 years in the past with this winter, what we’d consider as being chilly, they’d consider as, “Whoa, that was a reasonably delicate winter,” simply because it was once loads colder again then. So we do have to maintain that in thoughts, that there’s this temporal perspective. We’re now used to this this new hotter world, and so if we’re somewhat cooler than our new regular, that also is likely to be a lot hotter than it was once in a typical yr.

CG: Do you assume that particular person would go searching at us now, these of us who’ve complained about this current snow and the chilly, that they’d assume that we have been wimps?

BB: The snow is trickier. You already know, we’ve managed to carry onto our snow totals over time, though the snow has been squeezed, on common, into fewer days of the yr. So we begin our snow season somewhat bit later, and we finish it somewhat bit earlier. The core snow months are hanging in there and truly have gotten somewhat bit snowier. However that may solely final for therefore lengthy. You already know, finally, if issues proceed to heat, we’d transition extra of that snow into rain. Which, you realize, I don’t know of anybody that likes rain within the winter. There’s simply nothing good about winter rain.

CG: Yeah, undoubtedly. I really feel like we’ve established that, for positive.

Getting again to this thawed-out particular person bit that I ought to have let go a very long time in the past, so perhaps it’s extra like they appear round at us complaining — not us, however individuals who have complained about snow proper at first of November — and they’d say, “Properly, that’s a minimum of later than it was once after I was in my prime, a pre-frozen particular person.”

BB: Properly, whilst just lately as a number of a long time in the past, should you mentioned, “Properly, what’s the snowiest month of the yr round Alaska?” For the northern half of the state, October was the snowiest month of the yr. That’s not the case anymore. There’s virtually no location the place October is the snowiest month. And once more, that is like within the ’80s and ’90s. This isn’t like 100 years in the past, that is very just lately, however now what we’re seeing is a whole lot of what used to fall as snow in October is now falling as rain. So, you realize, should you heat issues up 3, 4 or 5 levels, what was once a 30-degree snow is now a 35-degree rain. That’s shifted. In order that’s one thing that somebody from 100 years in the past would in all probability discover, and the later freeze up of rivers and so forth, as a result of the darkness doesn’t change. It nonetheless will get darkish on the identical time it did 100 years in the past, however we’re simply not fairly as chilly.

CG: That’s attention-grabbing to consider. I didn’t anticipate a frozen particular person coming into this.

BB: However right here we’re.

CG: Properly, thanks for bearing with me on that.

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Alaska

As Alaska sees a spike in Flu cases — another virus is on the rise in the U.S.

Published

7 hours ago

January 15, 2025

Press Room

As Alaska sees a spike in Flu cases — another virus is on the rise in the U.S.

FAIRBANKS, Alaska (KTUU) – Alaska has recently seen a rise in both influenza and respiratory syncytial virus, better known as RSV. Amidst the spike in both illnesses, norovirus has also been on the rise in the United States. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) says it’s highly contagious and hand sanitizers don’t work well against it.

Current data for Alaska shows 449 influenza cases and 262 RSV cases for the week of Jan. 4. Influenza predominantly impacts the Kenai area, the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, and the Northwest regions of the state. RSV is also seeing significant activity in the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta and Anchorage.

Both are respiratory viruses that are treatable, but norovirus — which behaves like the stomach flu according to the CDC — is seeing a surge at the national level. It “causes acute gastroenteritis, an inflammation of the stomach or intestines,” as stated on the CDC webpage.

This virus is spread through close contact with infected people and surfaces, particularly food.

“Basically any place that people aggregate in close quarters, they’re going to be especially at risk,” said Dr. Sanjay Gupta, CNN’s Chief Medical Correspondent.

Preventing infection is possible but does require diligence. Just using hand sanitizer “does not work well against norovirus,” according to the CDC. Instead, the CDC advises washing your hands with soap and hot water for at least 20 seconds. When preparing food or cleaning fabrics — the virus “can survive temperatures as high as 145°F,” as stated by the CDC.

According to Dr. Gupta, its proteins make it difficult to kill, leaving many cleaning methods ineffective. To ensure a given product can kill the virus, he advises checking the label to see if it claims it can kill norovirus. Gupta said you can also make your own “by mixing bleach with water, 3/4 of a cup of bleach per gallon of water.”

For fabrics, it’s best to clean with water temperatures set to hot or steam cleaning at 175°F for five minutes.

As for foods, it’s best to throw out any items that might have norovirus. As a protective measure, it’s best to cook oysters and shellfish to a temperature greater than 145°F.

Based on Alaska Department of Health data, reported COVID-19 cases are significantly lower than this time last year.

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Alaska

Sky Watch Alaska: planets align plus the aurora forecast

Published

16 hours ago

January 14, 2025

Press Room

Sky Watch Alaska: planets align plus the aurora forecast

ANCHORAGE, Alaska (KTUU) – This is a great time of year to do some star gazing. If you have clear skies in your part of Alaska, take the time to check out the night — and morning — sky.

After sunset, look toward the southwest. Saturn and Venus are snuggled up together (of course, they are more than 800 million miles apart) in the evening sky. They set at about 9:40 p.m. in Southcentral.

Before 9:40 p.m., you can see four planets with the naked eye — Saturn, Venus, Jupiter and Mars. Jupiter and Mars stick around through the morning. Mars is very close to the moon right now.

The Aurora forecast is fairly weak for the next few weeks. That’s not to say there won’t be the occasional burst but overall, solar activity is expected to be fairly low until the beginning of February.

If you get great pictures of the planets, the sky, or the aurora, don’t forget to send them to Alaska’s News Source.

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Alaska

Short-lived cold snap, with another warming trend this weekend

Published

23 hours ago

January 14, 2025

Press Room

Short-lived cold snap, with another warming trend this weekend

ANCHORAGE, Alaska (KTUU) – Temperatures across the state are cooling off, as our strong low from the weekend moves into the Chukchi Sea. This will set up for colder air to spread across the state this week, as another short-lived cold snap is expected. While some light snow is possible for the Interior, areas of the Slope and Western Alaska, Southcentral will stay on the drier side until the night. Meanwhile, Southeast will continue to hold onto moderate rain with gusty conditions.

SOUTHCENTRAL:

Temperatures this morning are 10 to 20 degrees colder than yesterday, as colder air has settled back into Southcentral. Clear skies and calm winds are evident this morning for parts of the region, with light snow falling through the Copper River Basin. We’ll see fairly quiet conditions today, outside of Kodiak which will see increasing snow and rain into the afternoon and evening hours. This comes as our next area of low pressure moves up the Alaska Peninsula.

We’ll see light snow spreading north across the Kenai overnight into Wednesday, with light snow expected through Prince William Sound. Several inches are likely through the Kenai and Chugach Mountains, with the pass expected to see a couple of inches of accumulation. Western parts of the Kenai will see the potential for a few inches, while inland areas of Southcentral largely stay dry. If Anchorage and surrounding locations see any accumulation, it’ll amount to less than half an inch.

As snow tapers off Wednesday, we’ll see the return to colder and drier conditions into Thursday. Thursday may be the coldest day this week across the region, before another warming trend carries us into next week. Right now holding with snow through early next week, but areas of wintry mix are possible as highs warm above freezing.

SOUTHEAST:

The winter storm warning for Skagway and higher elevations expired at 6am this morning. While some light snow showers are still possible, little accumulation will occur the rest of the day. Scattered to periodic showers are occurring elsewhere across Southeast today, with less than half an inch of rainfall through the day. Any moisture available into the evening will see a transition to some wintry mix or snow into Wednesday morning. However, the better chance will come from another low lifting north into the panhandle. Any snow and wintry mix we see for Wednesday will primarily stay confined to the central and southern panhandle. We’ll see much cooler weather taking hold this week for Southeast.

INTERIOR:

Some areas of light snow are possible this morning, with less than half an inch to be expected. While temperatures are still warm for much of the Interior, highs will steadily fall throughout the day. Many areas will see lows bottom out near or below zero by tomorrow morning. We’ll see high pressure keep things dry and sunny through the next couple of days, with the coldest stretch of weather from Wednesday morning into Thursday morning. Much like the rest of the state will experience, a warming trend arrives this weekend. We’ll see the return to highs in the 20s, with some snow in the forecast. Be prepared for some gusty conditions through the Alaska Range by the close of this week.

SLOPE/WESTERN ALASKA:

Areas of light snow and blowing winds will continue to impact the Slope, with a winter weather advisory remaining in place for the Central Brooks Range and the Beaufort Sea Coast. Both locations will see up to 1 inch of snow and gusty winds up to 35 mph. While the winter weather advisory will expire for the Central Brooks Range this afternoon, the Beaufort Sea Coast will see the alert continue into Tuesday evening. Snow and blowing snow will be the primary impact today, with a return to colder weather through the rest of this week, this comes as high pressure settles into the area.

The storm responsible for the damaging winds for Southcentral over the weekend, has pushed north into the Chukchi Sea. We’ll still see some light snow accumulations for Western Alaska, with 1 to 3 inches expected. Some fo the heaviest snow will fall across the Seward Peninsula and the Western Brooks Range.

An area of low pressure in the Bering Sea will keep gusty winds and snow in the forecast for Gambell/St. Lawrence. Be prepared for heavy snow at times and areas of reduced visibility. Overall, colder weather will settle into Western Alaska, with the possibility of morning fog in the valleys over the next few mornings.

ALEUTIANS:

Some light areas of snow will occur for the Pribilof Islands and into parts of the Alaska Peninsula today, as a weak low moves up the Peninsula. This will be the main focus for snow into Wednesday for Southcentral. This low will bring heavy precipitation and gusty winds for the Eastern Aleutians and the Alaska Peninsula. Looking ahead through the rest of the week, we can expect to see more a ridge beginning to build into the region. This ridge will slowly shift east, keeping several upper level disturbances traversing the Aleutians. Temperatures will remain fairly warm in the 30s and 40s.

OUTLOOK AHEAD:

Model consensus continues to agree on another warming trend heading our way into next week. This stretch of warmth will likely lead to many spots cementing themselves within the top warmest January’s on record. While we’ll spend the rest of this week on the colder side, highs steadily climb this weekend into next week. We’ll see highs in Southcentral climbing back above freezing, with areas of the Interior climbing back into the 20s.

Have a safe and wonderful Tuesday!

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