A strong El Niño is coming to California. You may notice something different at the beach

El Niño is known for bringing soaking storms to California, especially the state’s southern half. A lesser-known side effect of the climate phenomenon? The Pacific Ocean’s famously frigid waters may be a little more welcoming.

El Niño tends to be associated with warmer-than-average ocean temperatures all along the West Coast, NOAA research scientist Dillon Amaya told KTLA’s parent company, Nexstar.

Just how warm are we talking? There’s a range of outcomes, Amaya explained. If you look at the two strongest El Niño events on record – the one from 1997-1998 and the one from 2015-2016 – the water at Scripps Beach in La Jolla got as warm as 74 or 76 degrees in late summer. That’s compared to around 68 degrees in an average year.

This year’s El Niño could be one for the record books, as well. The latest forecast showed an increased chance of a “super” (or very strong) El Niño.

“Much of the U.S. West Coast is currently experiencing a strong marine heatwave,” Amaya pointed out. “Add in El Niño and long-term warming from climate change, and we could be looking at record-breaking ocean temperatures this year.”

To get a better sense of what we might be in for, take a look at the chart below of sea surface temperatures from Scripps Beach.

The black line shows the average water temperature when you look at every year since 1950. The orange and purple lines show the water temperatures during our strongest El Niño events.

“These ‘Super El Niños’ kept ocean temperatures much warmer than average for almost the entire year,” Amaya said.

Now focus your attention on the columns of the chart shaded in red. Those are the winter months when an El Niño was present. While it’s more likely you’re brave enough to get in the water in the summer months, the effects of El Niño are more pronounced in winter and spring, Amaya said.

You can see the range of all El Niño water temperatures in that band of gray, from as low as 54 degrees to as high as 64 degrees in winter. But there’s a lot more gray above the black line than below it, Amaya pointed out, showing more often than not the water is warmer-than-average during an El Niño winter.

In addition to bringing the heat, El Niño tends to have other impacts on West Coast beaches, as well. It can create higher tides and stronger swells, pounding California’s beaches and contributing to erosion along the coast.

Not to mention the other problems associated with warming oceans. “The last time we had a very intense and sustained marine heatwave, we saw mass seabird die-offs, whale entanglements, kelp forest degradation, harmful algal blooms which poisoned shellfish (and surfers!), sea lion starvation and northward fish migration,” Amaya said. “These impacts could resurface if El Niño prolongs or even intensifies the ongoing marine heatwave.”

Warmer waters can also make storms more intense, and in rarer cases bring tropical cyclones to the California coast.

It’s too soon to tell how El Niño will play out this year. It’s favored to begin soon, at some point between now and July.