Shift in power likely to temper Youngkin agenda, force governing to center

Gov. Glenn Youngkin will have to temper his political agenda and work more closely with Democrats who won control of the General Assembly in elections this week, say lawmakers of both parties.

With a Republican governor and Democratic legislative majorities, they say Youngkin will have to look for common ground on such issues as funding for public education, behavioral health and economic development, while muting the ideological rhetoric that fueled his national political aspirations.

“It means that Youngkin is going to have to treat us as a co-equal branch of government instead of treating us as employees,” said Sen. Scott Surovell, D-Fairfax, who oversaw the campaigns that secured a 21-19 advantage for Democrats in the Senate.

The victory gives Democrats narrow majorities in both chambers that will not allow them to move too far left in a divided state government, even though the party elected more progressive candidates this year in political strongholds such as Northern Virginia.

“Anything that will get done will get done in the middle,” said Bob Holsworth, a Richmond political scientist. “They can do some things that are significant, but at the end of the day, they can’t override a (gubernatorial) veto.”

Youngkin spoke to reporters Wednesday outside the state Capitol the morning after Democrats seized control of both chambers. He noted that Democrats appear to have an edge of 51-49 in the House as well as 21-19 in the Senate.

“I think what that reflects is that we are a state that is very comfortable working together, working across party lines in order to get things done. And that’s exactly what we have done and we’re going to continue do this,” Youngkin said.

“We have had to bring together Democrats and Republicans, and we’ve had to bring together a General Assembly in order to move forward, and I am optimistic that we can continue to find these most important areas where we can move forward. I think that is what Virginians expect,” Youngkin said.

The governor said those most important areas are “reining in the cost of living, so that we are providing some tax relief, that we continue to stand up for excellence in education and safe communities and transformation of behavioral health.”

The shift in political power coincides with a dramatic transformation of leadership, particularly in the Senate, in which 17 of 40 senators will be new after political redistricting prompted a wave of retirements and seven incumbents lost in party primaries or in the general election. This week, Sen. Siobhan Dunnavant, R-Henrico, and Sen. Monty Mason, D-Williamsburg, lost their bids for reelection.

The change in leadership will be particularly apparent next week, when the House Appropriations and Senate Finance & Appropriations committees will hold their annual budget retreats a month before Youngkin proposes a two-year spending plan that is likely to include cuts in corporate and individual income tax rates that may not fly with new assembly majorities.

“I think certainly that the tax cuts are going to slow way, way down,” said House Appropriations Chairman Barry Knight, R-Virginia Beach, who helped the governor win approval of a $4 billion package of tax cuts last year and an additional $1 billion in cuts this year, almost entirely one-term rebates that the Senate had advocated.

Knight will lose the committee chairmanship, but he will retain much of his influence as a ranking Republican who has a good relationship with Del. Luke Torian, D-Prince William, who is likely to become chairman two years after losing the post when Republicans regained control of the House.

Even though control will be divided between the Republican governor and Democratic majorities in the General Assembly, “it’s going to be the same three-legged stool,” Knight said. “It’s just the legs of the stool changed places.”

Democrats are willing to consider changes to Virginia’s tax code to make it more progressive, or fairer based on income, but they are not likely to support the governor’s proposal to reduce rates for corporations and higher earners.

“Do we think we need comprehensive tax reform? Of course,” said Del. Mark Sickles, D-Fairfax, who is likely to resume his role as committee vice chairman. “But it’s probably not the way (Youngkin) wants to do.”

Democrats are also wary of Youngkin’s effort to look for potential spending cuts in state agencies to reduce the size of government and find money for his budget priorities.

“I’m willing to look at his proposals, but I’m not willing to starve the core functions of government,” said Sen. Adam Ebbin, D-Alexandria, a returning member of the Senate Finance Committee.

The Senate budget committee is losing most of its leaders on both sides of the party aisle, including Co-Chairs Janet Howell, D-Fairfax, who will retire in January, and George Barker, D-Fairfax, who lost the Democratic nomination in June to progressive challenger Stella Pekarsky, who was elected Tuesday.

Only six members of the committee are returning to office, including Sen. Louise Lucas, D-Portsmouth, who has made clear that she expects to become chair. Only one Republican member, Sen. Frank Ruff, R-Mecklenburg, will return because of retirements.

The shift to Democratic control “means (Youngkin) has to hold things in the middle of the road,” said Ruff, citing a bipartisan approval of the governor’s plan to consolidate workforce training programs in a new state agency.

Democrats expect to be able to work with Youngkin and Republicans on increasing funding of public education in response to a sweeping report by the Joint Legislative Audit and Review Commission this year that showed Virginia lagging behind, despite recent efforts to raise teacher salaries and restore state support for school support employees.

But they will not be receptive to the cultural issues that Youngkin and Republican candidates pushed in public education, such as restricting access to certain books in school libraries and forcing local school divisions to abide by a new model policy that the governor imposed for treatment of transgender students.

“You don’t want book bans,” said retiring Senate Majority Leader Dick Saslaw, D-Fairfax, who cited the election of a Democratic majority on the Loudoun County School Board despite Youngkin’s targeting of the board with his “Parents Matter” agenda.

Similarly, Democrats will not compromise on abortion rights, the issue that won them their majorities, but are likely to seek amendments to the state Constitution over the next three legislative sessions in an effort to enshrine protections under Roe v. Wade before the U.S. Supreme Court reversed the 50-year-old policy last year, as well as same-sex marriage.

“For the Democrats, this is a way to divide the Republican Party,” Holsworth said.

Youngkin said Wednesday that over the past two years, Democrats and Republicans came together to fund “record investment in behavioral health” as well as “record funding for law enforcement” and “record investment in making sure that Chesapeake Bay and our waterways are clear.”

“I’m encouraged that we have demonstrated that we can do this — it still requires us to come together,” Youngkin said.

Some lawmakers expect the legislature and government will find ways to work together on shared priorities, such as health care, education and economic development.

“It’s about governing,” said Sen. Creigh Deeds, D-Charlottesville. “It’s not just about politics.”