Can the Thunder Make the Play-In Tournament?

Earlier than the 2022-23 season, many thought it was a foregone conclusion that the Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder have been going to complete close to the underside of the league. Within the preseason, BetMGM, a well-liked on-line sportsbook, had set an over-under of 23.5 wins for the franchise. The Thunder have earned 14 wins by means of 32 video games and have to win 10 of their subsequent 50 video games to beat these odds.

However not solely can the Thunder defy expectations this season, however they might additionally actually blow them out of the water. Oklahoma Metropolis is presently on tempo to win 35 video games this season, or an 11.5-game distinction over BetMGM’s projected win whole. Whereas successful 35 video games isn’t thrilling on the floor, it may earn the Thunder a spot within the NBA’s novel Play-In Event.

For the reason that NBA completely put in the present iteration of the Play-In, to not be confused with the pilot model launched in 2019-20, groups with the Seventh-to-Tenth finest file, of their respective conferences, should compete to find out who can be awarded the seventh and eighth seed within the NBA Playoffs. However the format is totally different from the NBA Playoffs.

Right here is the way it works. The ninth-place workforce and tenth-place sq. off in a single-game elimination spherical. After which the seventh-place workforce hosts the eighth-place workforce in a “double-chance” sport the place the eighth-place workforce should earn back-to-back victories to safe the seventh seed within the Playoffs. Subsequently, the loser of that sport performs the winner of the ninth-versus-tenth sport in one other single-elimination bout to find out the eighth seed.

In 2020-21, the primary 12 months of the everlasting Play-In, each the Charlotte Hornets and San Antonio Spurs emerged from every convention with the tenth-best file. Every workforce gained 33 video games however misplaced their matches in opposition to the groups with the ninth-best file. In 2021-22, each the Hornets and the Spurs emerged because the tenth-place groups once more, incomes a consecutive journey to the Play-In. In that 12 months, the Hornets gained 43 video games and the Spurs gained 34.

In case you do the mathematics, the median quantity of wins recorded by tenth-place groups getting into the Play-In is simply 33.5 video games. That’s all it took, on common, for groups to earn a chance to compete for an eighth seed within the NBA Playoffs.

And as talked about earlier than, the Thunder are on observe to win 35 video games. Will they sustain the tempo is one other query, however there is no such thing as a query that the franchise is inside putting distance of creating the Play-In match. However there are obstacles.

At present, the Thunder maintain the Twelfth-best file within the Western Convention with 14 wins. They simply want to leap two groups earlier than the top of the season to earn a Play-In berth. However sitting above them are a number of seasoned groups, although.

Sitting eleventh within the standings are the Golden State Warriors and their completed trio of Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Inexperienced. And in keeping with BetMGM, they maintain the third-best odds to win the Western Convention. It’s extremely unlikely that this can be one of many groups overcome by the Thunder.

Simply above the Warriors are the Dallas Mavericks and Luka Donic, in addition to the Minnesota Timberwolves, led by a resurgence from D’Angelo Russell and the up-and-coming Anthony Edwards. Each groups are tied with 16 wins, simply two extra wins than the Thunder. But it surely’s onerous to ascertain the gifted Timberwolves, who’ve bested Oklahoma Metropolis in three of 4 matches this 12 months, and the Doncic-led Mavericks 0f successful fewer video games than the Thunder.

Maybe two of these groups may come from the group that presently holds the sixth, seventh, and eighth-best information. That’s the Utah Jazz, Portland Trailblazers, and Sacramento Kings. Whereas the tales of loyalty, beams, and underdogs are enjoyable, the season is lengthy and something can occur.

Nonetheless, for the Thunder to have an opportunity at making it to the Play-In, they should discover a technique to make up some floor within the win-loss column. They’re presently two video games behind the ninth-place Mavericks and three video games behind the eighth-place Jazz. And if early season play is any indication of how groups will carry out transferring ahead, the Thunder have their work reduce out for them.

Proper now, it appears the Thunder may have to win about 36 or 37 video games to earn the Tenth-best file within the Western Convention. That quantities to them successful 44% or 46%, or 22 or 23, of their subsequent 50 video games – a tall activity for the youngest workforce within the NBA.

However there may be hope. In response to Tankathon, the Thunder have the Twenty second-easiest remaining schedule within the league. And strikes will be made. Ought to the Thunder determine to make a push for the Play-In, Common Supervisor Sam Presti has an exorbitant quantity of belongings he can use to make the mandatory trades to place the workforce in a extra aggressive place.

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