UPDATED Dec. 23, 2021 | 4:27 PM
Is Omicron as lethal as earlier coronavirus variants?
Since rising in South Africa final month, Omicron has not pushed up demise charges there — and actually, the surge in infections is already fading. And up to now in the US, just one confirmed Omicron-related demise had been reported as of Tuesday, claiming the lifetime of an unvaccinated one who’d recovered from a earlier bout with COVID-19.
However as a lot as we’d prefer to consider Omicron will finish the pandemic with a whimper, not a bang, well being officers don’t have sufficient knowledge to conclude but simply how virulent the variant could also be or why. We do have three preliminary research — one from South Africa, one from England and one from Scotland — that report a decrease hospitalization price for individuals contaminated with Omicron than for these contaminated with different variants. However researchers additionally famous that Omicron sufferers usually tend to have been helped by antibodies from vaccinations or earlier infections than was the case throughout earlier COVID-19 waves, so it’s not an apples-to-apples comparability. Additionally, most of the early Omicron circumstances have been amongst youthful individuals, who’re much less more likely to be hospitalized from COVID-19 usually.
One other early examine from Hong Kong that hasn’t been peer-reviewed presents one different glimmer of hope, discovering that Omicron strikes into the lungs rather more slowly than earlier variations of the virus.
Paula Cannon, a virology professor at USC Keck Faculty of Drugs, mentioned that Omicron appears to be higher at replicating within the higher a part of the respiratory tract, which is correlated to being extra infectious however much less more likely to trigger severe illness.
However these are nonetheless hypotheses, not strong proof or an evidence of the components accountable.
Why is it spreading so quick?
Early analysis means that Omicron’s mutations have enabled it to avoid the physique’s defenses extra successfully and replicate quicker. Though these research nonetheless have to be reviewed by unbiased scientists and corroborated by others, we’re a minimum of getting some hints as to the reply.
Nonetheless, we don’t perceive but the mechanisms which have enabled Omicron to unfold so rapidly. Do individuals with Omicron spew extra virus into the air — in different phrases, would 5 minutes subsequent to somebody contaminated with Omicron expose you to the next viral load than 5 minutes subsequent to somebody with the Delta variant? “It seems that it’s trending to sure,” mentioned Jasmine Plummer, a analysis scientist and director at Cedar-Sinai Medical Middle.
John Beigel, affiliate director for medical analysis within the Nationwide Institute of Allergy and Infectious Ailments, mentioned one of many components is waning safety from the preliminary vaccines. That’s why it’s essential for individuals to get their boosters.
“After we increase, we not solely improve the quantity of antibodies, however you’re growing how effectively the antibodies will bind to the Omicron variant,” Beigel mentioned.
How a lot safety from Omicron will vaccines (and boosters) give?
The info present that totally vaccinated persons are susceptible to being contaminated by Omicron, simply as they’ve been to the Delta variant. Early analysis additionally means that boosters are significantly essential in defending towards Omicron. However scientists are nonetheless exploring what it’s concerning the mutations within the new variant that scale back the effectiveness of antibodies — whether or not gained by vaccination or a previous an infection — and the way efficient the physique’s different defenses stay.
“The vaccines appear to be holding up towards what they’re speculated to do, which isn’t essentially, ‘Are you going to check optimistic on a COVID check?’ However, ‘Are we going to stop you from getting extreme sickness and hospitalization?’ Sure,” mentioned Plummer.
“What we hope, and we don’t know as a result of the science is so new, is that the signs appear to be milder in the event you’re vaccinated,” she added.
Moderna mentioned Monday that in lab checks, even a half-dose of its booster considerably elevated the extent of antibodies obtainable to defend towards Omicron. Pfizer additionally has acknowledged that lab checks present its booster yielded a dramatic improve in antibodies to combat the variant.
Will vaccines have to be retooled for Omicron?
Probably, but it surely’s too early to inform whether or not the present vaccines and boosters will give sufficient safety or whether or not we’ll want extra frequent booster pictures. High U.S. well being officers have expressed religion that the present vaccines will proceed to supply some shielding, significantly to those that’ve acquired a booster shot.
“We don’t have the medical knowledge to help that, but,” Beigel mentioned. “I believe that the medical knowledge is admittedly going to drive the choice of, ‘Do we have to retool the vaccine or not?’”
Within the meantime, Pfizer started engaged on an Omicron-specific model of its COVID-19 vaccine on Nov. 25 and is anticipating supply of the brand new vaccine by March, pending regulatory approval.
How will Omicron have an effect on those that aren’t vaccinated?
Early analysis has proven that unvaccinated persons are, predictably, extra susceptible to an infection by Omicron — identical to with earlier coronaviruses
Are there totally different signs?
There’s anecdotal proof that the primary signs of Omicron are nasal congestion, dry cough and fatigue. It is a departure from the fever and lack of style and scent seen with different variants. However researchers want extra knowledge to substantiate any variations and clarify why they exist.
Will medicines that work on different variants work the identical with Omicron?
Medical doctors are warning that two antibody medication from Regeneron and Eli Lilly, which have been the go-to therapies for early COVID-19, might be much less potent towards Omicron. The drugmakers say that they will rapidly develop new variations with Omicron-targeting antibodies, however they aren’t anticipated to launch for a minimum of a number of months.
Pfizer has confirmed that its newly licensed COVID-19 remedy tablet, Paxlovid, retained its efficiency towards the Omicron. Not like the antibody medication, Paxlovid doesn’t goal coronavirus’ spike protein, which is the place Omicron’s mutations are concentrated.
One other newly licensed antiviral tablet from Merck, known as molnupiravir, can also be anticipated to work towards Omicron.
Is there an elevated danger of reinfection?
Preliminary proof suggests sure, Omicron is extra more likely to trigger repeat infections than earlier variants, in accordance with the World Well being Group. Simply as vaccine-induced antibodies appear to be much less efficient due to mutations in Omicron’s spike protein, the identical seems to be true for antibodies generated from a previous an infection.
The researchers from Imperial Faculty London have estimated that in contrast with the Delta variant, Omicron is 5.4 instances extra more likely to trigger a reinfection.
Will the prevention measures we’ve been taking all through the pandemic (masking, social distancing) work as effectively with Omicron?
The reply will depend on why Omicron spreads extra readily than its predecessors. In different phrases, we don’t know but.
Even so, specialists urge us to proceed doing all the identical issues to curtain viral unfold. Barbara Ferrer, the director of the Los Angeles County Division of Public Well being, advises everybody to:
Put on a masks if you’re indoors in a public place or with individuals outdoors of your family.
Get examined if you’re going to be in high-risk conditions for you or these round you, or in the event you’ve been uncovered to a coronavirus-positive particular person or have signs your self.
What will we learn about out of doors transmissibility? Does that not present the identical danger mitigation it used to?
Up to now, it seems that there’s nonetheless a decrease danger of getting contaminated in case you are outside as a result of there’s much less means for viral particles to build up, Plummer mentioned.
However we received’t know the way the out of doors danger of Omicron compares with different variants till knowledge are collected from out of doors occasions, Cannon mentioned. “What I can’t do is take a bunch of 10 individuals, make them sit in my again backyard and blow Delta at them after which blow Omicron at them and say, ‘Aha! Omicron is kind of infectious.’”
“There’s not going to be an absolute risk-free strategy to this,” Beigel mentioned. “However you’re taking the measures which might be inside your danger tolerance, and also you attempt to reduce the quantity of danger that you simply’re taking.”
Does Omicron have an effect on individuals in numerous age teams otherwise?
Early experiences from South Africa and Scotland confirmed that almost all new Omicron circumstances had been reported in individuals of their 20s and 30s, they usually had gentle signs.
However there are different components that would assist clarify that phenomenon. For instance, South Africa’s median age is 27.6, virtually a decade youthful than the median age within the U.S. Public Well being Scotland officers mentioned the age profile may mirror “early detection of a lot of circumstances in occasions that usually entice individuals in these age teams.” Youthful persons are additionally much less more likely to be vaccinated, and thus extra more likely to grow to be contaminated with any coronavirus variant.
“I don’t assume we now have the granularity to actually say, ‘Is that this behaving totally different than different strains we’ve seen in numerous age teams?’” Beigel mentioned.
How lengthy will this Omicron surge final?
Time will inform, however the speedy rise and fall of Omicron case counts in South Africa offers some individuals hope that this wave might be short-lived.
“Omicron is burning very quick and really brilliant; the curve of latest infections goes up extremely steeply. And there’s an expectation it would most likely come down equally steeply,” Cannon mentioned.
She suggested returning for the subsequent month to the precautions we took earlier than we had vaccines. ”I’m pondering that January could be a superb month to cancel my gymnasium subscription and never eat out,” she mentioned. “However then by February, we’ll be form of again to the place we’re presently. That’s my hope.”
Will the unfold of Omicron improve the percentages of an much more transmissible (or nastier in another approach) variant?
At this level we now have little greater than historical past to information us, and we’ve seen earlier viruses mutate in each instructions — extra benign and extra lethal. Plummer reminds us that we knew new variants may preserve cropping up so long as there have been individuals with lively coronavirus infections. One of the best ways to fight the results of those variants is to have extra individuals get vaccinated, together with with the newest booster pictures, she mentioned.
