Politics
Why a Ruling Declaring Trump ‘Likely’ Broke Laws May Not Mean He Will Be Prosecuted
WASHINGTON — A federal choose’s conclusion this week that former President Donald J. Trump doubtless dedicated felonies associated to his efforts to overturn the outcomes of the 2020 election intensified scrutiny on the query of whether or not the Justice Division can, ought to or will attempt to cost him with the identical crimes.
However the truth that a choose reached that conclusion doesn’t essentially imply {that a} prosecution would arrive on the similar end result. Right here is a proof.
What’s the case?
It’s a dispute over a subpoena issued by the Home committee that’s investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, assault on the Capitol by Trump supporters who have been in search of to cease Congress and the vp on the time, Mike Pence, from certifying Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s Electoral Faculty victory.
The subpoena instructs Chapman College to show over emails from a former professor, John Eastman, who equipped authorized arguments to Mr. Trump supporting his makes an attempt to overturn the election. Mr. Eastman filed a lawsuit to dam the subpoena, arguing that his messages have been lined by attorney-client and legal professional work-product privilege.
What did the choose say?
In his ruling, Decide David O. Carter of the Federal District Courtroom for the Central District of California mentioned the Jan. 6 committee may get sure emails below an exception to attorney-client privilege for communications that sought to additional against the law or fraud as a result of it was “extra doubtless than not” that Mr. Trump unlawfully sought to hinder a authorities continuing.
What’s the principle that Mr. Trump dedicated crimes?
Mr. Trump, in public and in personal, pressured Mr. Pence to reject or delay counting the Electoral Faculty votes of states the place Mr. Trump baselessly claimed that his loss to Mr. Biden had been fraudulent. The thought is that there was no authentic foundation for Mr. Pence to take action, so Mr. Trump’s strain on him amounted to an try to unlawfully hinder a authorities continuing and defraud the federal government.
The proof that Mr. Trump pressured Mr. Pence has been effectively established. The choose issued his ruling decoding that proof as doubtless amounting to against the law at this second not due to a breakthrough within the investigation that uncovered new, conclusive proof, however due to the timing of the subpoena lawsuit: The Jan. 6 committee wanted to publicly argue that the crime-fraud exception utilized so it may get hold of Mr. Eastman’s emails, and the choose agreed.
Is the ruling a street map for an indictment?
Not essentially, as a result of the context could be very totally different. As Decide Carter famous: “The court docket is tasked solely with deciding a dispute over a handful of emails. This isn’t a prison prosecution; this isn’t even a civil legal responsibility swimsuit.”
What’s an enormous problem to prosecuting Mr. Trump?
Proving Mr. Trump’s mind-set — particularly, that he had the requisite prison intent.
The obstruction statute, for instance, says that for the defendant’s motion impeding an official continuing to be against the law, he needed to act “corruptly.” However what which means shouldn’t be detailed within the statute, and the Supreme Courtroom has not definitively provided a solution, elevating dangers and issues for prosecutors evaluating a possible case.
One chance, mentioned Laurie L. Levenson, a prison regulation professor at Loyola Regulation College in Los Angeles, is that prosecutors must show that Mr. Trump knew for certain that Mr. Pence had no lawful foundation to do what he was asking. One other chance is that prosecutors would want to show solely that Mr. Trump had not less than some purpose to consider that his conduct may be illegal and proceeded anyway, she mentioned.
Why is proving Mr. Trump’s mind-set tough?
As a result of despite the fact that senior authorities officers have been telling him there was no factual or authorized foundation for Mr. Pence to unilaterally reject some states’ electoral votes or in any other case decelerate the certification, Mr. Eastman informed Mr. Trump that he interpreted the regulation as giving Mr. Pence authentic authority to take such a step.
Julie O’Sullivan, a Georgetown College prison regulation professor, mentioned in any prison trial, it might finally be as much as the jury to resolve what Mr. Trump really believed. Except proof emerges that he informed somebody on the time that he knew what he was saying was false, she mentioned, that shall be a problem.
“The issue with Trump is defining his mind-set when it’s so changeable,” she mentioned. “He believes no matter he desires to suppose and it doesn’t essentially should be grounded in actuality. That’s a tricky argument to a jury, to say he knew any explicit factor.”
Capitol Riot’s Aftermath: Key Developments
Why was that drawback not an impediment for Decide Carter?
As a result of the authorized commonplace of proof is decrease for deciding the crime-fraud exception utilized in a subpoena dispute than it’s for convicting somebody of against the law.
Decide Carter concluded that Mr. Trump “doubtless knew that the plan to disrupt the electoral rely was wrongful” utilizing the “preponderance of the proof” commonplace, below which a declare is taken into account established whether it is extra doubtless true than false. If the choose thought the proof pointed to a 51 p.c likelihood that Mr. Trump dedicated against the law and a 49 p.c likelihood that he didn’t, that was enough to rule that the Jan. 6 panel may get sure emails.
What commonplace of proof would prosecutors face?
Prosecutors would want to steer a jury that the identical proof proved “past an affordable doubt” — a a lot greater commonplace to fulfill — that the previous president dedicated against the law. Furthermore, slightly than persuading one choose of that proposition, prosecutors would want to persuade all 12 members of a jury, as a result of responsible verdicts have to be unanimous.
“A choose making a discovering to resolve whether or not proof needs to be disclosed is nowhere close to the extent of proof that you simply’ll want for a prison case,” Ms. Levenson mentioned. “‘Past an affordable doubt’ implies that jurors are nearly constructive that, in actual fact, Trump did this — and he did it with the intent required by the regulation.”
A number of authorized specialists in prison regulation pointed to this problem as a possible clarification for why the Justice Division would possibly hesitate to cost a former president and is as an alternative permitting the bigger investigation to proceed.
“Proving one thing by preponderance of the proof to a choose is a really totally different factor than proving it past an affordable doubt to a jury,” mentioned David Alan Sklansky, a Stanford College prison regulation professor. “It’s cheap to anticipate that prosecutors can be notably cautious to not bounce the gun while you’re speaking about charging a former president with against the law.”
Politics
Political betting markets still have plenty of action despite end of election season
The end of the election season does not mean the end of political betting, with many platforms allowing users to place wagers on everything from the 2028 election to who will be confirmed to President-elect Donald Trump’s Cabinet.
“Some people will be amazed by this, but people are already betting on 2026 and 2028,” Maxim Lott, the founder of ElectionBettingOdds.com, told Fox News Digital. “There’s been about a quarter million dollars bet already.”
The comments come after the 2024 election produced plenty of betting action, with users across multiple platforms wagering over $2 billion on the outcome of the latest race.
WHAT ARE ELECTION BETTING ODDS? EXPERT EXPLAINS WHY TRUMP IS CURRENT FAVORITE
While mega sporting events, such as the Super Bowl and the recent Mike Tyson vs. Jake Paul fight, gives gamblers plenty to wager on after the election, those looking for something political to bet on will still have plenty of options.
One of the most popular topics is who will be the nominees for both major parties in 2028, with ElectionBettingOdds.com showing California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Vice President-elect JD Vance being the current leaders for Democrats and Republicans, respectively.
Other names with a significant amount of attention for betters include Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer for the Democratic nomination, while Vance is trailed by names like entrepreneur and future head of the new Department of Government Efficiency Vivek Ramaswamy and Donald Trump Jr. on the Republican side.
“The big Democratic governors are favored to be the next nominee,” Lott said, noting that Vance currently holds a sizable lead over other options on the GOP side.
TRUMP OPENS UP LARGEST BETTING LEAD SINCE DAYS AFTER BIDEN’S DROPOUT
Vance is also the current betting leader on who will win the 2028 presidential election, ElectionBettingOdds.com shows, followed by Newson and Shapiro as the next two likely options.
However, Lott warned it is still too early to tell what the future holds, noting that the markets will start to provide more clarity as more information becomes known over the next few years.
“As the future becomes clearer… as we get closer to 2026, 2028, these odds will change,” Lott said. “So if the Trump administration is doing really well, the economy is booming, inflation is not out of control, wars are ending, Vance’s odds will certainly go up.”
Bettors also are not limited to wagering on elections, with platforms such as Polymarket allowing users to place bets on Trump’s picks to serve in his Cabinet and whether they will be confirmed. Bettors can also place wagers on questions such as if they believe the war in Ukraine will end in Trump’s first 90 days or if there will be a cease-fire in Gaza in 2024.
According to Lott, taking a look at the current betting odds for many scenarios can help inform you about what is going on in the world, even if you do not place bets yourself.
“People often ask… is there any value to this… it’s just gambling. It’s silly,” Lott said. “But actually it’s very useful… if you want to know what’s going to happen in 2028 or if the Trump administration is going to be a success, you could read 100 news articles on it. Some will misinform you. Or, you can just go to the prediction markets and see… is Vance a 20% chance of becoming the next Republican nominee or is he a 90% chance? That tells you a lot.”
Politics
As Trump’s lead in popular vote shrinks, does he really have a 'mandate'?
In his victory speech on Nov. 6, President-elect Donald Trump claimed Americans had given him an “unprecedented and powerful mandate.”
It’s a message his transition team has echoed in the last three weeks, referring to his “MAGA Mandate” and a “historic mandate for his agenda.”
But given that Trump’s lead in the popular vote has dwindled as more votes have been counted in California and other states that lean blue, there is fierce disagreement over whether most Americans really endorse his plans to overhaul government and implement sweeping change.
The latest tally from the Cook Political Report shows Trump winning 49.83% of the popular vote, with a margin of 1.55% over Vice President Kamala Harris.
If there ever was a mandate, this isn’t it.
— Hans Noel, Georgetown University
The president-elect’s share of the popular vote now falls in the bottom half for American presidents — far below that of Democrat Lyndon B. Johnson, who won 61.1% of the popular vote in 1964, defeating Republican Sen. Barry Goldwater by nearly 23 percentage points.
In the last 75 years, only three presidents — John F. Kennedy in 1960, Richard Nixon in 1968 and George W. Bush in 2000 — had popular-vote margins smaller than Trump’s current lead.
“If there ever was a mandate, this isn’t it,” said Hans Noel, associate professor of government at Georgetown University.
Trump’s commanding electoral college victory of 312 votes to Harris’ 226 is clear. And unlike in 2016, when he beat former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, he won the popular vote and the needed support in the electoral college.
The question is whether Trump can garner significant public support to push through his more contentious administration picks and the most radical elements of his policy agenda, such as bringing in the military to enforce mass deportations.
Democrats say that the results fall short of demonstrating majority public support for Trump and that the numbers do not give him a mandate to deviate from precedent, such as naming Cabinet members without Senate confirmation.
“There’s no mandate here,” Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.) said last week on CNN, noting Trump had suggested using “recess appointments” to get around Senate hearings and votes for his nominees. “What there certainly should not be is a blank check to appoint a chaos Cabinet.”
GOP strategist Lanhee Chen, a fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution who ran for California controller in 2022, rejects such framing by Democrats. He argues that Trump’s victory was “quite resounding,” in large part because it defied expectations.
In an election that almost all political pundits expected would be close and protracted, he reversed Democrats’ 2020 gains, won all seven battleground states and even made inroads with voters in blue states such as California. Republicans also will take control of the Senate and retain their control of the House.
“Look, if the popular vote ends up having him at 49.6% versus 50.1%, do I think it’s a meaningful difference?” Chen said. “No, I don’t.”
Scholars of American politics have long been skeptical of the idea of a presidential mandate.
The first president to articulate such a concept was Andrew Jackson, the nation’s seventh president, who viewed his 1832 reelection — in which he won 54.2% of the popular vote — as a mandate to destroy the Second Bank of the United States and expand his political authority. In arguing he had the mandate of the people, Jackson deviated from the approach of previous presidents in refusing to defer to Congress on policy.
In “Myth of the Presidential Mandate,” Robert A. Dahl, a professor of political science at Yale University, argued the presidential mandate was “harmful to American public life” because it “elevates the president to an exalted position in our constitutional system at the expense of Congress.”
Even if we accept the premise of a mandate, there is little consensus on when a candidate has achieved it.
“How do we know what voters were thinking as they cast ballots?” Julia R. Azari, an assistant professor of political science at Marquette University, wrote in a recent essay. “Are some elections mandates and others not? If so, how do we know? What’s the popular vote cutoff — is it a majority or more? Who decides?”
In “Delivering the People’s Message: The Changing Politics of the Presidential Mandate,” she argues that it’s politicians in weak positions who typically invoke mandates. This century, she wrote, presidents have cited mandates with increasing frequency as a result of the declining status of the presidency and growing national polarization.
That’s particularly true of Trump, who has long reveled in hyperbole.
In 2016, he bragged that he’d won in a “massive landslide victory,” even though his electoral college win of 304 to Clinton’s 227 was not particularly dramatic by historic standards and he lost the popular vote by 2 percentage points.
Four years later, he refused to accept he lost the electoral college and the popular vote to Joe Biden, falsely claiming he was the victim of voter fraud.
When Trump speaks of his supposed mandate, he is not an outlier, but is drawing from bipartisan history.
In the last four decades, no president has won the popular vote by double digits, but politicians including George W. Bush and Barack Obama have increasingly tried to justify their agendas by invoking public support.
When Democrat Bill Clinton defeated Republican President George H.W. Bush and Ross Perot, an independent, in 1992, his failure to win a majority of votes did not stop his running mate, Al Gore, from declaring they had a “mandate for change.” Five days after Clinton was inaugurated, he announced he was creating a task force to devise a sweeping plan to provide universal healthcare.
“In my lifetime, at least,” Clinton told reporters, “there has never been so much consensus that something has to be done.” The effort ultimately failed for lack of political support.
The fake news is trying to minimize President Trump’s massive and historic victory to try to delegitimize his mandate.
— Karoline Leavitt, incoming White House press secretary
Four years ago, Biden also declared a “mandate for action.”
And while Biden prevailed in the electoral college 306 to 232, his share of the popular vote was 51.3%, hardly a dominant performance.
As mainstream news outlets have reported on Trump’s shrinking popular margin, Karoline Leavitt, Trump’s incoming White House press secretary, has lashed out at the media.
“New Fake News Narrative Alert!” Leavitt posted on X, adding a red warning light emoji. “The fake news is trying to minimize President Trump’s massive and historic victory to try to delegitimize his mandate.”
Trump’s victory is not by any objective measure “massive or historic.” But Republicans say that news outlets have subjected him to a different standard than they apply to Democratic presidents.
After Clinton won in 1992 after 12 years of GOP presidents, some Republicans note, Time magazine put his face on its cover with the headline “Mandate for Change.”
Clinton won just 43% of the popular vote, one of the lowest shares in U.S. history.
Presidents sometimes bolster their claims of a mandate by cherry-picking polling results.
On Sunday, Trump’s transition team highlighted new polling from CBS News, claiming it showed “overwhelming support” for his “transition and agenda.”
But even though the poll indicated that 59% of Americans approved of Trump’s handling of the presidential transition, it did not show overwhelming or even majority support for many parts of his agenda.
For example, while Trump won strong backing for his broad immigration plan, with 57% supporting a “national program to find and deport all immigrants who are in the U.S. illegally,” the poll showed far less support — 40% — for his plan to use the military to carry out deportations.
Whatever the popular vote, the Hoover Institution’s Chen argues, Trump is in a strong position because he can count on GOP majorities in both houses of Congress.
“He’s going to be able to do, from a legislative perspective, largely what he wants to do,” Chen said.
But several GOP senators have already emphasized the importance of requiring FBI background checks for Trump’s more contentious nominees.
It also appears he lacks public support for pushing through his picks without Senate approval. More than three-quarters of respondents, according to the CBS poll, believe the Senate should vote on Trump’s appointments.
Noel, the Georgetown professor, said that Trump’s rhetorical strategy aside, the president-elect might have to move past the “‘I won, so everybody get out of my way’ kind of politics” and work behind the scenes to seek common ground with moderate Republicans and maybe even some Democrats.
“In the past, people have made strong claims about mandates, but then they’ve coupled that with more cautious policymaking,” Noel said. “If Trump doesn’t do that — if he acts like he believes his own story — then we’re in a different, more Trumpian kind of place.”
Politics
Texas could bus migrants directly to ICE for deportation instead of sanctuary cities under proposed plan
Texas could implement a plan to bus migrants directly to U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in an effort to get them processed for deportation, according to media reports.
The move would be a departure from the state’s program, part of Operation Lone Star, that has bussed thousands of migrants to sanctuary cities, a source told the New York Post. It has yet to be approved by Gov. Greg Abbott.
Fox News Digital has reached out to Abbott’s office and ICE.
“We are always going to be involved in border security so long as we’re a border state,” a Texas government source told the newspaper. “We spent a lot of taxpayer money to have the level of deterrent that we have on the border, and we can’t just walk away.”
TRUMP SAYS MEXICO WILL STOP FLOW OF MIGRANTS AFTER SPEAKING WITH MEXICAN PRESIDENT FOLLOWING TARIFF THREATS
Abbott has been especially aggressive in combating illegal immigration, bussing migrants to blue cities in an effort to bring attention to the border crisis. Under the proposed plan, buses chartered by Texas from border cities will be taken to federal detention centers to help ICE agents process migrants quickly, the Post reported.
Texas has been in a legal fight with the Biden administration over its efforts to curb illegal immigration. On Wednesday, an appeals court ruled that the state has the right to build a razor wire border wall to deter migrants.
Officials have also offered land to the incoming Trump administration to build deportation centers to hold illegal immigrant criminals.
LIBERAL NANTUCKET REELS FROM MIGRANT CRIME WAVE AS BIDEN SPENDS THANKSGIVING IN RICH FRIEND’S MANSION
“My office has identified several of our properties and is standing by ready to make this happen on Day One of the Trump presidency,” Texas Land Commissioner Dawn Buckingham said during a visit to the border Tuesday.
Authorities have also warned of unaccompanied migrant children being caught near the border. On Thursday, a 10-year-old boy from El Salvador told state troopers in Maverick County, Texas, that he had been lost and left behind by a human smuggler.
The boy was holding a cellphone and crying, Texas Department of Public Safety Lt. Chris Olivarez posted on X. The child said his parents were in the U.S.
APPEALS COURT RULES TEXAS HAS RIGHT TO BUILD RAZOR WIRE BORDER WALL TO DETER ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION: ‘HUGE WIN’
On Sunday, troopers encountered an unaccompanied 2-year-old girl from El Salvador holding a piece of paper with a phone number and her name. She told authorities that her parents were also in the U.S.
That morning, state troopers also encountered a group of 211 illegal immigrants in Maverick County. Among the group were 60 unaccompanied children, ages 2 to 17, and six special interest immigrants from Mali and Angola.
“Regardless of political views, it is unacceptable for any child to be exposed to dangerous criminal trafficking networks,” Olivarez wrote at the time. “With a record number of unaccompanied children and hundreds of thousands missing, there is no one ensuring the safety & security of these children except for the men & women who are on the frontlines daily.”
He noted that the “reality is that many children are exploited & trafficked, never to be heard from again.”
-
Science1 week ago
Trump nominates Dr. Oz to head Medicare and Medicaid and help take on 'illness industrial complex'
-
Health6 days ago
Holiday gatherings can lead to stress eating: Try these 5 tips to control it
-
Health4 days ago
CheekyMD Offers Needle-Free GLP-1s | Woman's World
-
Science3 days ago
Despite warnings from bird flu experts, it's business as usual in California dairy country
-
Technology2 days ago
Lost access? Here’s how to reclaim your Facebook account
-
Science1 week ago
Alameda County child believed to be latest case of bird flu; source unknown
-
Sports1 week ago
Behind Comcast's big TV deal: a bleak picture for once mighty cable industry
-
Entertainment1 day ago
Review: A tense household becomes a metaphor for Iran's divisions in 'The Seed of the Sacred Fig'