U.S. Makes Contingency Plans in Case Russia Uses Its Most Powerful Weapons

BRUSSELS — The White Home has quietly assembled a group of nationwide safety officers to sketch out situations of how the USA and its allies ought to reply if President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia — pissed off by his lack of progress in Ukraine or decided to warn Western nations in opposition to intervening within the battle — unleashes his stockpiles of chemical, organic or nuclear weapons.

The Tiger Group, because the group is thought, can also be inspecting responses if Mr. Putin reaches into NATO territory to assault convoys bringing weapons and assist to Ukraine, in response to a number of officers concerned within the course of. Assembly thrice every week, in categorized periods, the group can also be responses if Russia seeks to increase the battle to neighboring nations, together with Moldova and Georgia, and the way to put together European international locations for the refugees flowing in on a scale not seen in a long time.

These contingencies are anticipated to be central to a unprecedented session right here in Brussels on Thursday, when President Biden meets leaders of the 29 different NATO nations, who can be assembly for the primary time — behind closed doorways, their cellphones and aides banished — since Mr. Putin invaded Ukraine.

Only a month in the past, such situations appeared extra theoretical. However in the present day, from the White Home to NATO’s headquarters in Brussels, a recognition has set in that Russia might flip to essentially the most highly effective weapons in its arsenal to bail itself out of a army stalemate.

NATO’s secretary common, Jens Stoltenberg, underscored the urgency of the preparation effort on Wednesday, telling reporters for the primary time that even when the Russians make use of weapons of mass destruction solely inside Ukraine, they could have “dire penalties” for folks in NATO nations. He gave the impression to be discussing the concern that chemical or radioactive clouds might drift over the border. One concern beneath examination is whether or not such collateral harm can be thought of an “assault” on NATO beneath its constitution, which could require a joint army response.

The present group was established in a memo signed by Jake Sullivan, Mr. Biden’s nationwide safety adviser, on Feb. 28, 4 days after the invasion started, in response to the officers concerned within the course of, who spoke on the situation of anonymity to debate delicate planning. A earlier iteration had labored for months, behind the scenes, to arrange the U.S. authorities for the chance of a Russian invasion of Ukraine.

That group performed a central function in devising the playbooks of deep sanctions, troop buildups in NATO nations and arming the Ukrainian army, which have exploited Russian weaknesses and put its authorities and financial system beneath great strain.

Mr. Stoltenberg, sounding way more hawkish than previously, mentioned he anticipated “allies will agree to offer further help, together with cybersecurity help and gear to assist Ukraine defend in opposition to chemical, organic, radiologic and nuclear threats.”

As Mr. Biden flew to Europe on Wednesday, each he and Mr. Stoltenberg warned of rising proof that Russia was the truth is getting ready to make use of chemical weapons in Ukraine.

These are questions that Europe has not confronted for the reason that depths of the Chilly Warfare, when NATO had far fewer members, and Western Europe anxious a few Soviet assault headed into Germany. However few of the leaders set to satisfy in Brussels on Thursday ever needed to cope with these situations — and lots of have by no means had to consider nuclear deterrence or the results of the detonation of battlefield nuclear weapons, designed to be much less highly effective than those who destroyed Hiroshima. The concern is that Russia is extra seemingly to make use of these weapons, exactly as a result of they erode the excellence between typical and nuclear arms.

Senator Jack Reed, a Rhode Island Democrat who heads the Armed Companies Committee, mentioned on Wednesday that if Mr. Putin used a weapon of mass destruction — chemical, organic or nuclear — “there can be penalties” even when the weapon’s use was confined to Ukraine. Mr. Reed mentioned radiation from a nuclear weapon, as an example, might waft right into a neighboring NATO nation and be thought of an assault on a NATO member.

“It’s going to be a really troublesome name, nevertheless it’s a name that not simply the president however your entire NATO Council should make,” Mr. Reed informed reporters, referring to the governing physique of the Western alliance.

“The underside line is this can be a NATO choice,” Mr. Reed mentioned. “It gained’t be the president’s choice alone. I don’t suppose he’d wish to take motion unilaterally.”

One main concern the Tiger Group is is the brink that might immediate the alliance to make use of army pressure in Ukraine. Mr. Biden has made clear that he’s enormously reluctant to to take action, fearing that direct confrontation with Russia might escalate the battle past management. “That’s World Warfare III,” he famous just lately.

A second group of officers, additionally created by Mr. Sullivan’s Feb. 28 memo, is long-term alternatives for the USA to enhance its geopolitical place because of Mr. Putin’s invasion. Contained in the White Home, it has grow to be an article of religion that the Russian chief made an enormous strategic error — one that may diminish Russia’s standing, cripple its financial system and alienate potential allies for years. However it’s early within the battle, different officers warning, and that conclusion might show untimely.

The instant concern is what Mr. Putin might do subsequent — pushed by a need to rescue a failing army effort or re-establish his credentials as a pressure to be feared.

Officers consider the probabilities that Mr. Putin will resort to detonating a nuclear weapon are small. However Russia’s regular stream of reminders that it has its arsenal on the prepared, and will use it in response to something it perceives as an “existential risk,” has put Washington on excessive alert.

Mr. Biden will take up with allies “the way to cope with the rhetoric and the commentary popping out of Russia on this entire query of the potential use of nuclear weapons,” Mr. Sullivan informed reporters on Wednesday.

“We haven’t seen something that’s made us regulate our posture, our nuclear posture, however it’s in fact one thing we should proceed to remain in shut session with allies and companions on, in addition to talk on to the Russians.”

A number of officers mentioned the White Home and Pentagon have had some rigidity over how a lot element the Protection Division is keen to share on its extremely secretive battle planning — particularly regarding responses to any use of nuclear weapons — even within the categorized setting of the Tiger Group. (The time period has been used for a few years to explain an emergency activity pressure contained in the Nationwide Safety Council.)

A U.S. official mentioned Mr. Biden remained adamant about holding American forces out of Ukraine. However the official mentioned the administration believed it will be misguided to not carefully look at the thresholds, if any, beneath which the president would reverse himself, or to be ready to cope with the implications of using weapons of mass destruction.

A senior administration official mentioned any use of a “small” tactical nuclear bomb by Russia — even inside Ukraine and never directed at a NATO member — would imply that “all bets are off” on the USA and NATO staying out of the battle. However when pushed, the official declined to put out the responses beneath dialogue.

The official mentioned American and NATO intelligence communities had not seen any exercise by Russian army officers that urged preparations to make use of a nuclear weapon. However he mentioned that in inside discussions, administration officers had been urging warning, as a result of there was extra at stake than simply Ukraine.

If Mr. Putin did strike a NATO nation deliberately, he wouldn’t solely convey the pressure of the army alliance to bear on Russia, but in addition most likely discover himself dealing with NATO troops inside Ukraine, Artis Pabriks, Latvia’s protection minister, informed reporters touring in his nation this month with Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Employees.

“He’ll get Article 5,” Mr. Pabriks mentioned, in a reference to the NATO pledge that an assault on one alliance member is an assault on all.

“If he will get that, mainly that may additionally make us concerned in Ukraine,” Mr. Pabriks mentioned, including: “He has no method out of that. So I don’t suppose he must be so silly.”

Senator Angus King of Maine, an unbiased and a member of the Senate Intelligence and Armed Companies Committees, visited the Polish-Ukrainian border over the weekend, assembly with officers from allied international locations, visiting a refugee processing middle and speaking with Ukrainians. Mr. King mentioned that as Russian forces wrestle to make headway, Mr. Putin might attempt to strike a diplomatic settlement, intensify his bombardment of Ukrainian cities and stage them, or lash out in opposition to the West with a cyberattack.

“The fourth is escalate to de-escalate, which is a tactical nuclear weapon,” Mr. King mentioned, utilizing the time period for a Russian army doctrine through which it will make use of a nuclear weapon as a warning — after which negotiate.