Politics
Putin’s War Is Complicating India’s Middle Path Among Powers
NEW DELHI — As worldwide outrage over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine boiled over, overseas ministers and envoys filed in to New Delhi, hoping to tug India off the fence and into clearer condemnation of Russia, its longtime ally.
The USA provided a mixture of carrots and sticks: signaling a willingness to develop protection cooperation with India, lengthy depending on Moscow for a majority of its weapons, but additionally calling India a “shaky” member of an essential alliance of democracies generally known as the Quad. Prime ministers of Japan and Australia, each a part of that alliance, held conferences with India’s leaders. Israel introduced that its prime minister would arrive quickly.
However when the United Nations once more voted final week on a decision crucial of the Russian aggression, India caught to abstaining. Then India additional emphasised its relative neutrality: It additionally abstained from supporting a decision that favored Russia. As a substitute, India known as for an finish to hostilities and respect for the territorial integrity of states — an expression of displeasure with Russia’s conflict with out calling it out as an aggressor.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine and its backlash supply the newest manifestations of India’s effort to chart its personal path by means of speedy adjustments on the earth order in recent times. On the heart of it’s an growing readability amongst India’s overseas coverage strategists that the nation can not afford to take sides in what’s more and more a multipolar world, officers and analysts say.
India’s vulnerabilities — together with a slowing financial system that’s struggling to satisfy the calls for of a rising inhabitants and an ill-equipped navy stretched on two fronts by territorial disputes with China and Pakistan — are such that it wants allies far and large, even when it means New Delhi has to work with the cruel actuality of these allies’ bitterly opposing one another.
After a long time spent making an attempt to delicately navigate the Chilly Struggle legacy of a bipolar world, it’s dealing with much more issues, together with the rise of an expansionist China on its doorstep.
“Our place isn’t that this isn’t our drawback — our place is that we’re for peace,” Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, India’s overseas minister, advised the nation’s Parliament on the day India once more selected to abstain from voting in opposition to Russia on the United Nations. “Indian overseas coverage choices are made in Indian nationwide curiosity, and we’re guided by our pondering, our views, our pursuits.”
The talk within the Higher Home that day was indicative of the tough waters India is navigating.
There was discuss of a Western “double sport” in pressuring India to cease oil purchases from Russia, nearly 1 p.c of its general oil imports, whereas Europe continued shopping for Russian oil. However there was additionally questions of what India’s impartial place means for its safety. Does India threat angering the US and different Quad international locations partnered in bolstering safety in opposition to China? What if Russia and China drew nearer on account of the Western sanctions?
Mr. Jaishankar is in a singular place, directly the chief theorist of India’s imaginative and prescient for a path on this difficult new world order and the individual liable for the tough work of implementing of that imaginative and prescient.
Throughout his 4 a long time in India’s overseas service, he held ambassadorial postings in Washington and Beijing earlier than retiring in 2018 because the nation’s highest-ranking bureaucrat within the service. He was chosen by Prime Minister Narendra Modi to change into overseas minister a 12 months later, however he used the hole to supply a guide, “The India Manner: Methods for an Unsure World,” on the nation’s overseas coverage doctrine.
Within the guide, a favourite reference of overseas diplomats in New Delhi, he attributes a lot of the problem of the fluctuating world to the results of a “larger individualism, extra insularity and sharp retrenchment” by the US in recent times, together with the rise of a extra aggressive China.
“It could require advancing nationwide pursuits by figuring out and exploiting alternatives created by international contradictions,” Mr. Jaishankar wrote.
Simply how delicate that work is in observe performed out final week, in the course of the go to to New Delhi by the Chinese language overseas minister Wang Yi.
It was the primary ministerial go to between the 2 international locations for the reason that lethal skirmishes within the Himalayan borders two years in the past, which have stored the relations tense.
Indian officers harassed that the conferences with Mr. Wang have been geared toward expediting the disengagement of the tens of 1000’s of troops, a sluggish course of regardless of 15 rounds of talks between the 2 militaries.
However many analysts noticed within the timing of the go to, and the messaging from Beijing and Moscow round it, an effort to use the divergence between New Delhi and Washington — and even to indicate India in a single bloc with Russia and China.
Extra such efforts are doubtless. Russia’s overseas minister, Sergey V. Lavrov, who has listed India and China amongst international locations “who would by no means settle for the worldwide village beneath the American sheriff,” is anticipated to reach in New Delhi later this week.
India’s tough decisions are pushed by its personal vulnerabilities — notably an financial system that’s not dwelling as much as its potential — and the legacy of a long time of dependence on Moscow and distrust of Washington.
India lagged far behind China in opening up its financial system, lacking out on the early advantages of globalization that turned Beijing into an enormous. India’s smaller G.D.P. — about $3 trillion, one-sixth of China’s — and the wants of a inhabitants of 1.4 billion have constrained the nation’s navy spending.
“Finally, the true safety lies in financial development and, you realize, rapidly attending to one thing near $10 trillion,” stated Arvind Panagariya, an economics professor at Columbia College who previously suggested Mr. Modi. “Mainly what China did. Who would have taken China significantly till 1990?”
For a big a part of India’s impartial historical past, its leaders have appeared to Moscow not only for weapons’ provides, but additionally for political help on the United Nations. Moscow remained a gradual ally when Washington repeatedly upset New Delhi, together with aiding Pakistan — India’s enemy — and imposing sanctions on India for creating nuclear weapons.
Even because the ties with Washington have grown to a degree that the US is now India’s largest buying and selling companion, there are nonetheless jolts of hesitance for New Delhi. The newest got here from the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. India had carefully aligned its pursuits there with the American presence, solely to see the US go away Afghanistan to the Taliban, which New Delhi has lengthy seen as a proxy of a Pakistani navy that’s hand in glove with Beijing.
Russia-Ukraine Struggle: Key Developments
Ongoing peace talks. Throughout peace talks between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul, Russia promised it could “cut back navy exercise” close to Kyiv, and Ukraine stated it was able to declare itself completely impartial. Even so, weeks of additional negotiation could also be wanted to achieve an settlement, and Russia seems decided to seize extra territory in jap Ukraine.
In its quest for “strategic autonomy,” India has been sluggish in creating distance from Moscow. Whereas India has elevated its weapon purchases from the US from little to about $20 billion previously decade, it nonetheless is dependent upon Russia for about 60 p.c of its navy gear.
“I believe individuals within the U.S. authorities perceive and respect the complexities of India’s place,” stated Kenneth Juster, the previous U.S. ambassador to New Delhi. “However the atrocities dedicated by Putin will pose a problem for India and different international locations in phrases, in some unspecified time in the future, of getting to additional distance themselves from what he’s doing.”
The Indian authorities’s confidence that its divergence from Western strain on Russia will in the end not harm its relations is rooted in the truth that India is a crucial potential verify on China’s expansionist overseas coverage.
New Delhi joined the Quad alliance regardless of robust opposition from Russia and China, which have each likened it to a NATO within the east aiming to encircle China. However India has maintained its balancing act, shopping for weapons from Russia, together with a missile protection system, regardless of threats of U.S. sanctions.
About two weeks into the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the leaders of the Quad held a summit assembly that was seen as a present of unity regardless of India’s not being on the identical web page on Russia’s conflict.
“So far as the Pentagon is anxious, we’re a pin on the map within the Indian Ocean area,” stated Tara Kartha, who served in India’s Nationwide Safety Council for practically 20 years. “We aren’t that in Europe, the place we’ve no function to play in exhausting protection phrases.”
Russia’s brutal marketing campaign in Ukraine, and the likelihood that Moscow will probably emerge diminished from the conflict and sanctions, might speed up India’s shift away from Moscow and facilitate an growth of protection ties with the US, some analysts stated.
However Dr. Kartha stated that may be a slower course of requiring the bureaucracies of each side to beat rooted hesitancy. There stays a “deep mistrust of the U.S.” within the Indian paperwork due to a legacy of seeing Washington as patronizing and unreliable.
“The U.S. paperwork has numerous ifs and buts earlier than it indicators something, when you have Russia coming and saying, ‘OK, let’s do that co-production’ and it’s performed,” Dr. Kartha stated. “Until the U.S. is ready to get previous its personal paperwork and its personal mind-set, we are going to nonetheless proceed to be depending on Russia.”
Politics
Political betting markets still have plenty of action despite end of election season
The end of the election season does not mean the end of political betting, with many platforms allowing users to place wagers on everything from the 2028 election to who will be confirmed to President-elect Donald Trump’s Cabinet.
“Some people will be amazed by this, but people are already betting on 2026 and 2028,” Maxim Lott, the founder of ElectionBettingOdds.com, told Fox News Digital. “There’s been about a quarter million dollars bet already.”
The comments come after the 2024 election produced plenty of betting action, with users across multiple platforms wagering over $2 billion on the outcome of the latest race.
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While mega sporting events, such as the Super Bowl and the recent Mike Tyson vs. Jake Paul fight, gives gamblers plenty to wager on after the election, those looking for something political to bet on will still have plenty of options.
One of the most popular topics is who will be the nominees for both major parties in 2028, with ElectionBettingOdds.com showing California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Vice President-elect JD Vance being the current leaders for Democrats and Republicans, respectively.
Other names with a significant amount of attention for betters include Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer for the Democratic nomination, while Vance is trailed by names like entrepreneur and future head of the new Department of Government Efficiency Vivek Ramaswamy and Donald Trump Jr. on the Republican side.
“The big Democratic governors are favored to be the next nominee,” Lott said, noting that Vance currently holds a sizable lead over other options on the GOP side.
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Vance is also the current betting leader on who will win the 2028 presidential election, ElectionBettingOdds.com shows, followed by Newson and Shapiro as the next two likely options.
However, Lott warned it is still too early to tell what the future holds, noting that the markets will start to provide more clarity as more information becomes known over the next few years.
“As the future becomes clearer… as we get closer to 2026, 2028, these odds will change,” Lott said. “So if the Trump administration is doing really well, the economy is booming, inflation is not out of control, wars are ending, Vance’s odds will certainly go up.”
Bettors also are not limited to wagering on elections, with platforms such as Polymarket allowing users to place bets on Trump’s picks to serve in his Cabinet and whether they will be confirmed. Bettors can also place wagers on questions such as if they believe the war in Ukraine will end in Trump’s first 90 days or if there will be a cease-fire in Gaza in 2024.
According to Lott, taking a look at the current betting odds for many scenarios can help inform you about what is going on in the world, even if you do not place bets yourself.
“People often ask… is there any value to this… it’s just gambling. It’s silly,” Lott said. “But actually it’s very useful… if you want to know what’s going to happen in 2028 or if the Trump administration is going to be a success, you could read 100 news articles on it. Some will misinform you. Or, you can just go to the prediction markets and see… is Vance a 20% chance of becoming the next Republican nominee or is he a 90% chance? That tells you a lot.”
Politics
As Trump’s lead in popular vote shrinks, does he really have a 'mandate'?
In his victory speech on Nov. 6, President-elect Donald Trump claimed Americans had given him an “unprecedented and powerful mandate.”
It’s a message his transition team has echoed in the last three weeks, referring to his “MAGA Mandate” and a “historic mandate for his agenda.”
But given that Trump’s lead in the popular vote has dwindled as more votes have been counted in California and other states that lean blue, there is fierce disagreement over whether most Americans really endorse his plans to overhaul government and implement sweeping change.
The latest tally from the Cook Political Report shows Trump winning 49.83% of the popular vote, with a margin of 1.55% over Vice President Kamala Harris.
If there ever was a mandate, this isn’t it.
— Hans Noel, Georgetown University
The president-elect’s share of the popular vote now falls in the bottom half for American presidents — far below that of Democrat Lyndon B. Johnson, who won 61.1% of the popular vote in 1964, defeating Republican Sen. Barry Goldwater by nearly 23 percentage points.
In the last 75 years, only three presidents — John F. Kennedy in 1960, Richard Nixon in 1968 and George W. Bush in 2000 — had popular-vote margins smaller than Trump’s current lead.
“If there ever was a mandate, this isn’t it,” said Hans Noel, associate professor of government at Georgetown University.
Trump’s commanding electoral college victory of 312 votes to Harris’ 226 is clear. And unlike in 2016, when he beat former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, he won the popular vote and the needed support in the electoral college.
The question is whether Trump can garner significant public support to push through his more contentious administration picks and the most radical elements of his policy agenda, such as bringing in the military to enforce mass deportations.
Democrats say that the results fall short of demonstrating majority public support for Trump and that the numbers do not give him a mandate to deviate from precedent, such as naming Cabinet members without Senate confirmation.
“There’s no mandate here,” Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.) said last week on CNN, noting Trump had suggested using “recess appointments” to get around Senate hearings and votes for his nominees. “What there certainly should not be is a blank check to appoint a chaos Cabinet.”
GOP strategist Lanhee Chen, a fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution who ran for California controller in 2022, rejects such framing by Democrats. He argues that Trump’s victory was “quite resounding,” in large part because it defied expectations.
In an election that almost all political pundits expected would be close and protracted, he reversed Democrats’ 2020 gains, won all seven battleground states and even made inroads with voters in blue states such as California. Republicans also will take control of the Senate and retain their control of the House.
“Look, if the popular vote ends up having him at 49.6% versus 50.1%, do I think it’s a meaningful difference?” Chen said. “No, I don’t.”
Scholars of American politics have long been skeptical of the idea of a presidential mandate.
The first president to articulate such a concept was Andrew Jackson, the nation’s seventh president, who viewed his 1832 reelection — in which he won 54.2% of the popular vote — as a mandate to destroy the Second Bank of the United States and expand his political authority. In arguing he had the mandate of the people, Jackson deviated from the approach of previous presidents in refusing to defer to Congress on policy.
In “Myth of the Presidential Mandate,” Robert A. Dahl, a professor of political science at Yale University, argued the presidential mandate was “harmful to American public life” because it “elevates the president to an exalted position in our constitutional system at the expense of Congress.”
Even if we accept the premise of a mandate, there is little consensus on when a candidate has achieved it.
“How do we know what voters were thinking as they cast ballots?” Julia R. Azari, an assistant professor of political science at Marquette University, wrote in a recent essay. “Are some elections mandates and others not? If so, how do we know? What’s the popular vote cutoff — is it a majority or more? Who decides?”
In “Delivering the People’s Message: The Changing Politics of the Presidential Mandate,” she argues that it’s politicians in weak positions who typically invoke mandates. This century, she wrote, presidents have cited mandates with increasing frequency as a result of the declining status of the presidency and growing national polarization.
That’s particularly true of Trump, who has long reveled in hyperbole.
In 2016, he bragged that he’d won in a “massive landslide victory,” even though his electoral college win of 304 to Clinton’s 227 was not particularly dramatic by historic standards and he lost the popular vote by 2 percentage points.
Four years later, he refused to accept he lost the electoral college and the popular vote to Joe Biden, falsely claiming he was the victim of voter fraud.
When Trump speaks of his supposed mandate, he is not an outlier, but is drawing from bipartisan history.
In the last four decades, no president has won the popular vote by double digits, but politicians including George W. Bush and Barack Obama have increasingly tried to justify their agendas by invoking public support.
When Democrat Bill Clinton defeated Republican President George H.W. Bush and Ross Perot, an independent, in 1992, his failure to win a majority of votes did not stop his running mate, Al Gore, from declaring they had a “mandate for change.” Five days after Clinton was inaugurated, he announced he was creating a task force to devise a sweeping plan to provide universal healthcare.
“In my lifetime, at least,” Clinton told reporters, “there has never been so much consensus that something has to be done.” The effort ultimately failed for lack of political support.
The fake news is trying to minimize President Trump’s massive and historic victory to try to delegitimize his mandate.
— Karoline Leavitt, incoming White House press secretary
Four years ago, Biden also declared a “mandate for action.”
And while Biden prevailed in the electoral college 306 to 232, his share of the popular vote was 51.3%, hardly a dominant performance.
As mainstream news outlets have reported on Trump’s shrinking popular margin, Karoline Leavitt, Trump’s incoming White House press secretary, has lashed out at the media.
“New Fake News Narrative Alert!” Leavitt posted on X, adding a red warning light emoji. “The fake news is trying to minimize President Trump’s massive and historic victory to try to delegitimize his mandate.”
Trump’s victory is not by any objective measure “massive or historic.” But Republicans say that news outlets have subjected him to a different standard than they apply to Democratic presidents.
After Clinton won in 1992 after 12 years of GOP presidents, some Republicans note, Time magazine put his face on its cover with the headline “Mandate for Change.”
Clinton won just 43% of the popular vote, one of the lowest shares in U.S. history.
Presidents sometimes bolster their claims of a mandate by cherry-picking polling results.
On Sunday, Trump’s transition team highlighted new polling from CBS News, claiming it showed “overwhelming support” for his “transition and agenda.”
But even though the poll indicated that 59% of Americans approved of Trump’s handling of the presidential transition, it did not show overwhelming or even majority support for many parts of his agenda.
For example, while Trump won strong backing for his broad immigration plan, with 57% supporting a “national program to find and deport all immigrants who are in the U.S. illegally,” the poll showed far less support — 40% — for his plan to use the military to carry out deportations.
Whatever the popular vote, the Hoover Institution’s Chen argues, Trump is in a strong position because he can count on GOP majorities in both houses of Congress.
“He’s going to be able to do, from a legislative perspective, largely what he wants to do,” Chen said.
But several GOP senators have already emphasized the importance of requiring FBI background checks for Trump’s more contentious nominees.
It also appears he lacks public support for pushing through his picks without Senate approval. More than three-quarters of respondents, according to the CBS poll, believe the Senate should vote on Trump’s appointments.
Noel, the Georgetown professor, said that Trump’s rhetorical strategy aside, the president-elect might have to move past the “‘I won, so everybody get out of my way’ kind of politics” and work behind the scenes to seek common ground with moderate Republicans and maybe even some Democrats.
“In the past, people have made strong claims about mandates, but then they’ve coupled that with more cautious policymaking,” Noel said. “If Trump doesn’t do that — if he acts like he believes his own story — then we’re in a different, more Trumpian kind of place.”
Politics
Texas could bus migrants directly to ICE for deportation instead of sanctuary cities under proposed plan
Texas could implement a plan to bus migrants directly to U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in an effort to get them processed for deportation, according to media reports.
The move would be a departure from the state’s program, part of Operation Lone Star, that has bussed thousands of migrants to sanctuary cities, a source told the New York Post. It has yet to be approved by Gov. Greg Abbott.
Fox News Digital has reached out to Abbott’s office and ICE.
“We are always going to be involved in border security so long as we’re a border state,” a Texas government source told the newspaper. “We spent a lot of taxpayer money to have the level of deterrent that we have on the border, and we can’t just walk away.”
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Abbott has been especially aggressive in combating illegal immigration, bussing migrants to blue cities in an effort to bring attention to the border crisis. Under the proposed plan, buses chartered by Texas from border cities will be taken to federal detention centers to help ICE agents process migrants quickly, the Post reported.
Texas has been in a legal fight with the Biden administration over its efforts to curb illegal immigration. On Wednesday, an appeals court ruled that the state has the right to build a razor wire border wall to deter migrants.
Officials have also offered land to the incoming Trump administration to build deportation centers to hold illegal immigrant criminals.
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“My office has identified several of our properties and is standing by ready to make this happen on Day One of the Trump presidency,” Texas Land Commissioner Dawn Buckingham said during a visit to the border Tuesday.
Authorities have also warned of unaccompanied migrant children being caught near the border. On Thursday, a 10-year-old boy from El Salvador told state troopers in Maverick County, Texas, that he had been lost and left behind by a human smuggler.
The boy was holding a cellphone and crying, Texas Department of Public Safety Lt. Chris Olivarez posted on X. The child said his parents were in the U.S.
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On Sunday, troopers encountered an unaccompanied 2-year-old girl from El Salvador holding a piece of paper with a phone number and her name. She told authorities that her parents were also in the U.S.
That morning, state troopers also encountered a group of 211 illegal immigrants in Maverick County. Among the group were 60 unaccompanied children, ages 2 to 17, and six special interest immigrants from Mali and Angola.
“Regardless of political views, it is unacceptable for any child to be exposed to dangerous criminal trafficking networks,” Olivarez wrote at the time. “With a record number of unaccompanied children and hundreds of thousands missing, there is no one ensuring the safety & security of these children except for the men & women who are on the frontlines daily.”
He noted that the “reality is that many children are exploited & trafficked, never to be heard from again.”
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