Politics
Putin unlikely to be deterred by setbacks, intelligence officials tell House committee
Director of Nationwide Intelligence Avril Haines advised lawmakers Tuesday morning that Russian President Vladimir Putin didn’t count on the extent of Ukrainian resistance to his invasion, nor the extent and pace of sanctions imposed by nations world wide.
“Our analysts assess that Putin is unlikely to be deterred by such setbacks and as a substitute might escalate, basically doubling down,” she mentioned.
The feedback from Haines and different intelligence officers got here in an unusually candid public listening to with members of the Home Intelligence Committee. The listening to was anticipated to deal with the intelligence group’s annual international risk evaluation, nevertheless it was as a substitute largely dominated by questions on Russia’s two-week-old invasion of its neighbor Ukraine. The Home panel will get a categorised evaluation within the afternoon.
Haines mentioned Putin seemingly anticipated the battle to final a matter of days at most and predicted Russia will likely be exhausting pressed to carry any floor it good points.
“We assess Putin feels aggrieved the West doesn’t give him correct deference and perceives this as a battle he can not afford to lose, however what he may be prepared to simply accept as a victory might change over time given the numerous prices he’s incurring,” she mentioned.
CIA Director William Burns agreed, saying Putin initially believed Ukraine was weakened and simply intimidated, and that the Russian chief had modernized his army to the purpose of making certain a fast victory. Burns added that Putin had been assured early on that he had sanction-proofed his economic system, and that the Europeans had been too distracted to pay a lot consideration to the invasion.
“He’s been confirmed mistaken on each rely,” Burns mentioned.
Nonetheless, Burns mentioned the invasion is a “matter of deep private conviction” for Putin.
“He has been stewing in a flamable mixture of grievance and ambition for a few years,” Burns mentioned.
Putin’s plan was premised on seizing Kyiv inside the first two days of the marketing campaign, Burns mentioned, and he’s getting more and more annoyed on the lack of progress.
“He’s more likely to double down and attempt to grind down the Ukrainian army with no regard for civilian casualties,” Burns mentioned. “He has no sustainable political endgame within the face of what will proceed to be fierce resistance from Ukrainians.”
At this level, Burns mentioned he can not see how Putin can get up a puppet regime within the face of large opposition from the Ukrainian folks, warning there may be an “ugly subsequent few weeks” forward.
Protection Intelligence Company Director Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier estimated that 2,000 to 4,000 Russian troopers have died within the lower than two weeks for the reason that invasion started, a quantity that far exceeds what the Russian authorities has acknowledged. For context, the US suffered greater than 7,000 army deaths over 20 years in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Berrier mentioned Russia seems to be making an attempt to chop off meals and water to Kyiv as a technique.
“It’s going to grow to be considerably determined in I’d say 10 days to 2 weeks,” he mentioned.
Intelligence Committee Chairman Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank) advised reporters after the listening to that as Putin doubles down on Ukraine, it stays tough to see how the battle ends.
“What’s the offramp? I believe what we are able to do is simply to proceed to escalate the worth that he and Russia need to pay for this,” Schiff mentioned. “I believe till he feels that his personal regime is in danger, it’s exhausting to see him in search of an exit ramp.”
Congressional lawmakers are debating how a lot further assist to ship to Ukraine, and what further financial measures to take in opposition to Russia, which is already seeing unprecedented sanctions on its monetary methods, prime leaders and companies. On Tuesday, President Biden introduced a ban on the import of Russian oil and power merchandise into the US.
Senate Majority Chief Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.) has known as for some $12 billion in assist, and urged passage this week, saying it “will present each humanitarian and army help for Ukraine: funding for refugees, medical provides, emergency meals provides, in addition to funding to assist weapons transfers into Ukraine, and assist for our jap flank NATO allies.”
Home Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco) has mentioned Congress is trying to go $10 billion in emergency assist for Ukraine as half of a bigger authorities funding measure. A vote may happen as quickly as immediately.
Politics
How Biden – and Trump – helped make the pardon go haywire
The pardon debate – individual, group, partisan, preemptive – is spinning out of control.
In his “Meet the Press” interview, Donald Trump mocked Joe Biden’s repeated assurances about Hunter: “‘I’m not going to give my son a pardon. I will not under any circumstances give him a pardon.’ I watch this and I always knew he was going to give him a pardon.”
In a portion of that interview that did not air but was posted online, the president-elect complained to Kristen Welker:
“The press was obviously unfair to me. The press, no president has ever gotten treated by the press like I was.”
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Why did he appear on “Meet the Press”? “You’re very hostile,” Trump said. Her response: “Well, hopefully, you thought it was a fair interview. We covered a lot of policy grounds.”
“It’s fair only in that you allowed me to say what I say. But you know, the answers to questions are, you know, pretty nasty. But look, because I’ve seen you interview other people like Biden.”
“I’ve never interviewed President Biden,” Welker responded. Trump said he was speaking “metaphorically.”
“I’ve seen George Stephanopoulos interview. And he’s a tough interviewer. It’s the softest interview I’ve seen. CNN interview. They give these soft, you know, what’s your favorite ice cream? It’s a whole different deal. I don’t understand why.”
The strength of Welker’s approach is that she asked as many as half a dozen follow-ups on major topics, making more news. When she asked, for instance, whether he would actually deport 11 million illegal immigrants, as he’d said constantly on the campaign trail, he answered yes – which for some reason lots of news outlets led with. But a subsequent question got Trump to say he didn’t think the Dreamers should be expelled and would work it out with the Democrats.
As for Trump, he reminded me of the candidate I interviewed twice this year. He was sharp and serious, connecting on each pitch, fouling a few off. This was not the candidate talking about sharks at rallies.
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With one significant misstep, he made the case that he was not seeking retribution – even backing off a campaign pledge that he would appoint a special prosecutor to investigate Biden.
That misstep, when Trump couldn’t hold back, was in saying of the House Jan. 6 Committee members, including Liz Cheney: “For what they did, honestly, they should go to jail.”
He did add the caveat that he would let his attorney general and FBI chief make that decision, but it allowed media outlets to lead with Trump wanting his political opponents behind bars. For what it’s worth, there’s no crime in lawmakers holding hearings, and this business about them withholding information seems like a real stretch.
Now back to the pardons. This mushrooming debate was obviously triggered by the president breaking his repeated promise with a sweeping, decade-long pardon of his son, a 54-year-old convicted criminal.
But then, as first reported by Politico, we learned that the Biden White House is debating whether to issue a whole bunch of preemptive pardons to people perceived to be potential targets of Trumpian retaliation.
But the inconvenient truth is that anyone accepting such a pardon would essentially admit to the appearance of being guilty. That’s why Sen.-elect Adam Schiff says he doesn’t want a pardon and won’t accept one.
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But many of those potential recipients don’t even know they’re under consideration for sweeping pardons covering anything they may or may not have done.
It is a truly awful idea, and with Biden and Trump both agreeing that DOJ engages in unfair and selective prosecutions – which in the Republican’s case made his numbers go up – the stage is set for endless rounds of payback against each previous administration.
I remember first thinking about the unchecked power of presidential pardons when Bill Clinton delivered a last-minute one to ally and super-wealthy Marc Rich.
So it’s time to hear from Alexander Hamilton, who pushed it into the Constitution. Keep in mind that in that horse-and-buggy era, there were very few federal offenses because most law enforcement was done by the states.
In Federalist 74, published in 1788, Hamilton said a single person was better equipped than an unwieldy group, and such decisions should be broadly applied to help those in need.
“In seasons of insurrection or rebellion,” the future Treasury secretary wrote, “there are often critical moments, when a welltimed offer of pardon to the insurgents or rebels may restore the tranquillity of the commonwealth.”
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Otherwise, it might be too late.
But another founding father, George Mason, opposed him, saying a president “may frequently pardon crimes which were advised by himself. It may happen, at some future day, that he will establish a monarchy, and destroy the republic. If he has the power of granting pardons before indictment, or conviction, may he not stop inquiry and prevent detection?”
An excellent argument, but Hamilton won out.
As Hamilton envisioned, George Washington, in 1794, granted clemency to leaders of the Whiskey Rebellion to calm a fraught situation.
Something tells me that Biden, Trump and their allies aren’t poring over the Federalist papers. But it’s still an awful lot of sweeping power to place in the hands of one chief executive, for which the only remedy is impeachment.
Politics
Column: Trump hoped his Cabinet picks could escape serious vetting. He was so wrong
WASHINGTON — In a normal presidential transition, the president-elect spends weeks carefully considering candidates for the most important jobs in his Cabinet. Potential nominees undergo rigorous private vetting by trusted aides and lawyers, then by the FBI. It’s a painstaking process that often consumes the entire three months between the election and the inauguration.
But when has Donald Trump ever recognized any value in traditional norms?
He refused to authorize the FBI to begin its customary background checks, because he hoped to do without them or because he didn’t trust the G-men, or both.
Instead of waiting for investigations, he announced most of his nominees in three weeks — apparently imagining that the tsunami would force the Senate to confirm them quickly.
He even proposed skipping the constitutionally required step of Senate confirmation entirely, pushing to fill his Cabinet through the back door of “recess appointments.” He was apparently surprised when otherwise loyal GOP senators quietly refused to roll over for that audacious power grab.
His nominations set a new record for speed, if not for quality.
The outcome was predictable. His most controversial nominees — picked apparently with little or no private vetting — were followed by a parade of skeletons streaming out of closets. (Some of the skeletons had been strutting in public for years.)
The ensuing media leaks were embarrassing. They made the second Trump administration look just as chaotic as the first. But there were substantive political effects as well.
Most presidents use their transition, and the honeymoon period that normally follows, to build public support for their policies and programs. But Trump must now spend most of his time jawboning GOP senators to back his nominees.
Opinion polls show that his support in the public hasn’t grown since election day; he’s still stuck at the 50-50 mark in favorability.
And it was all avoidable.
“When the Senate confirmation process works properly, it’s in the best interest of the president — even though presidents are usually annoyed by it,” said Gregg Nunziata, a former Senate Republican aide who handled dozens of nominations. “There’s an existing protocol to handle allegations confidently and discreetly. If that protocol isn’t followed, the interest [in a nominee’s background] is going to spill out into other channels” — mainly the news media.
That’s what’s happening now. The vetting of Trump’s Cabinet is being done after the fact, mostly by the news media. The results have not been pretty.
Matt Gaetz, the former Florida congressman Trump proposed for attorney general, somehow thought he could skate past the House Ethics Committee’s evidence that he had paid a 17-year-old for sex. (The New York Times reported that Trump chose Gaetz impulsively after a meeting with Gaetz and Tesla founder Elon Musk aboard the president-elect’s private jet.)
Eight days after the nomination was announced, CNN reported that Gaetz had a second illicit encounter with the girl. His nomination was finished by nightfall.
Next up was Pete Hegseth, the Fox News host known for his opposition to women in combat roles and his war on “woke” generals. Trump proposed Hegseth for secretary of Defense, a job that entails managing almost 3 million people and an $849-billion budget, even though he had never run anything remotely comparable.
At first, the National Guard veteran looked headed for confirmation, as GOP senators fell into line. Then a whistleblower told Trump aides that a woman had accused Hegseth of raping her in a Monterey hotel in 2017, and the story promptly leaked. (Hegseth said the encounter was consensual.) Two days later, it emerged that Hegseth had paid the accuser in exchange for a nondisclosure agreement.
Skeletons continued their march. The New York Times reported that Hegseth’s mother had sent him an email scolding him for abusing women. (She disavowed the message and denounced the newspaper for revealing it.) The New Yorker reported that Hegseth’s former employees at a veterans’ organization said he had been intoxicated and disorderly at company events. NBC quoted his former Fox News colleagues saying he drank there, too. (“I never had a drinking problem,” said Hegseth, who promised to stop drinking.)
Hegseth’s support among Republican senators began to erode, with many saying he needed to undergo a full FBI investigation.
Last week, Trump mused to aides that he might replace Hegseth with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. But by Friday, the president-elect turned defiant on social media: “Pete is a WINNER, and there is nothing that can be done to change that!”
So the Hegseth battle will continue — at a potential further political cost.
“His confirmation hearings are going to be completely brutal,” a Republican strategist warned. “There will be weeks of coverage on cable TV, which is a medium Trump cares about. How much stomach does he have for that when he’s about to take office?”
Hegseth isn’t the only nominee who faces a struggle. Some GOP senators have expressed concern about Tulsi Gabbard, the former Democrat designated for director of national intelligence. Kash Patel, his nominee for FBI director, will have to defend his goal of using the law enforcement agency as a weapon of retribution against political opponents. And Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will need to explain his long-proclaimed belief that no vaccine is safe.
The scrutiny of those nominees has barely begun.
Now Trump faces an unpalatable choice: long, bruising and public fights to put controversial nominees into office, or quick decisions to cut failing candidates loose as he did with Gaetz.
It isn’t unusual for incoming presidents to lose a Cabinet nominee or two.
If they fail quickly, the damage is rarely great. Who remembers that President Biden couldn’t win confirmation for his first nominee as budget director, Neera Tanden, or that Trump couldn’t get his first-term nominee as Labor secretary, Andrew Puzder, confirmed?
But Trump has made a potentially irreparable mistake.
By proposing so many nominees with flagrantly weak qualifications beyond political loyalty, he has turned their confirmations into zero-sum tests of his ability to compel obedience from prideful senators. With only a 53-47 majority in the chamber, the loss of any four could mean defeat.
Even before his inauguration, the president-elect has already failed in two respects. His abortive proposal to finagle nominees into office without Senate confirmation alienated legislators whose help he will need over the next four years.
And he may have thought he could get the jump on his opponents by announcing his nominees early — yet another miscalculation. He merely gave the news media enough time to subject them to the scrutiny they deserved from the beginning.
Politics
Trump nominates Harmeet Dhillon, Mark Paoletta to key posts, backs KC Crosbie for RNC co-chair
President-elect Trump on Sunday nominated Harmeet K. Dhillon as the assistant attorney general for civil rights in the Justice Department.
Trump said Dhillon has consistently protected civil liberties throughout her career, including taking on Big Tech for censoring free speech, representing Christians who were not allowed to pray together during the COVID-19 pandemic, and suing corporations who use woke policies to discriminate against their employees.
“Harmeet is one of the top election lawyers in the country, fighting to ensure that all, and ONLY, legal votes are counted,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “She is a graduate of Dartmouth College and the University of Virginia Law School and clerked in the U.S. Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals.”
“Harmeet is a respected member of the Sikh religious community,” he added. “In her new role at the DOJ, Harmeet will be a tireless defender of our Constitutional Rights and will enforce our Civil Rights and Election Laws FAIRLY and FIRMLY.”
GET TO KNOW DONALD TRUMP’S CABINET: WHO HAS THE PRESIDENT-ELECT PICKED SO FAR?
Trump also wrote in a separate post that Mark Paoletta will return as general counsel of the Office of Management and Budget.
In the role, Trump said, Paoletta will work closely with the Department of Government Efficiency to cut the size of “our bloated government bureaucracy and root out wasteful and anti-American spending.”
Trump called Paoletta a brilliant and tenacious lawyer, crediting him with working to advance his agenda in the first term, while leading the charge to find funding to build a wall at the southern border.
TRUMP NAMES ALINA HABBA AS COUNSELOR TO THE PRESIDENT; REVEALS SEVERAL STATE DEPARTMENT PICKS
Mark is a partner at the law firm Shaerr Jaffe LLP and a senior fellow at the Center for Renewing America.
“Mark has served as a Chief Counsel for Oversight and Investigations in Congress for a decade and was a key lawyer in the White House Counsel’s Office to confirm Justice Clarence Thomas to the U.S. Supreme Court in 1991,” Trump wrote. “Mark is a conservative warrior who knows the ‘ins and outs’ of Government – He will help us, Make America Great Again!”
And finally, Trump announced that KC Crosbie is running to become the next co-chair of the Republican National Committee to replace Lara Trump.
TRUMP NOMINATES FORMER WISCONSIN REP. SEAN DUFFY FOR SECRETARY OF TRANSPORTATION
“Lara, together with Chairman Michael Whatley, transformed the RNC into a lean, focused, and powerful machine that is empowering the MAGA Movement for many years to come,” the president-elect said. “Thank you for your hard work, Lara, in MAKING AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!”
The incoming president also said Crosbie has helped “real” Republicans get elected across the U.S. and would make a tremendous co-chair.
“KC will work on continuing to ensure a highly functioning, fiscally responsible, and effective RNC that makes Election Integrity a highest priority,” Trump said. “KC Crosbie has my Complete and Total Endorsement to be the next Co-Chair of the RNC!”
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