Politics
Opinion: The guilty verdict only makes Donald Trump stronger
They finally got him.
Not on Russia collusion. Ukraine phone calls. Jan. 6 riots. Classified documents. Or mean tweets.
They finally got Donald Trump, after everything, on filing the wrong financial sex-story coverup paperwork.
Who but Donald Trump could even be indicted for such a thing? As CNN’s Fareed Zakaria said a few days ago: “I doubt the New York indictment would’ve been brought against a defendant whose name was not Donald Trump.”
It was jarring to hear my CNN colleague Jake Tapper say “guilty” 34 straight times, as the verdicts rolled in Thursday afternoon. A historic moment that further divided an already divided nation.
And it was equally jarring to see text after text pop up on my phone from decidedly non-MAGA Republicans, but also not Never Trumpers, all sounding the same note: I don’t like this man, and now I think I have to vote for him.
Lest you think that’s just anecdotal or a sign that Scott has weird friends, the Trump campaign reported a deluge of online contributions in the minutes following the verdict crashed their system.
The polling indicates the guilty verdict won’t make much of a difference to how most Americans vote. But Republicans are madder than wet hens that the party’s nominee for president — and, according to the polls, likely the next president of the United States — was indicted for 34 felonies that few can fully explain, in a very Democratic jurisdiction.
Basically, the prosecution argued that Hillary Clinton might have won if Trump hadn’t paid Stormy Daniels for her silence, and so you must convict him for covering up what amounts to a campaign finance violation that he was never charged with or convicted of in the first place. The Department of Justice and Federal Election Commission declined to pursue this novel theory, but it found a home in the Manhattan district attorney’s office.
It sounds crazy just typing it. Having never stuck the landing on “Russia stole the election” in 2016, Democrats have moved on to this rationalization of Hillary Clinton’s loss being caused by Trump paying for the silence of a porn star he allegedly had sex with in 2006. (Trump maintains it didn’t happen; Daniels says it did.)
The consensus in my circle is that this will backfire massively, as Republicans get energized. Even Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell, no Trump fan himself, tweeted: “These charges never should have been brought in the first place. I expect the conviction to be overturned on appeal.”
I’m watching two groups of voters in the polling aftermath — senior citizens and what we in the politics business call “low info flow” voters who consume very little news other than fleeting headlines. Seniors still remember “the before times,” when presidents weren’t spending all their time in courtrooms, and low info voters may never know much beyond that Trump is now a convicted felon.
Biden has strength with older white voters, while Trump does better with the disengaged types. If either group moves against Trump, it could cause a polling bump for Biden. I’m not betting on it, but if I were in the Trump command center, those are the folks I’d be tracking very closely for the next few weeks.
The guilty verdict kicks off a consequential June for what had become a sleepy campaign. Biden has been stuck in the mud for months, languishing at around a 38% approval rating (historically low), and trailing Trump in national and swing state polls. Voters remain angry with Biden over inflation and immigration. His job approval hasn’t been above water since August of 2021, after the disastrous, chaotic and deadly pullout of U.S. troops from Afghanistan.
At the end of June, Biden and Trump will debate in Atlanta, with perhaps an unwanted party crasher on stage in the form of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Step 1 to revive his flailing campaign was for Biden to see Trump convicted. Step 2 is for Biden to win the June 27 debate.
As of June 1, Trump is winning. What will the story be on July 1? What if, after a Trump conviction and a debate, Biden hasn’t moved in the polls in a month’s time?
If you think the Democrats are in panic mode today (which Politico reported just this week), brace yourself for what comes next — prominent members of the party wondering aloud about replacing Biden on the ticket if he can’t move ahead of a convicted felon.
For Trump, the message is clear: The only verdict that matters will come from the American people on Nov. 5. And he’ll take the boost he’s sure to get in the wake of the verdict, just as he has following his previous indictments and legal milestones.
Scott Jennings is a former special assistant to President George W. Bush and a senior CNN political commentator. @ScottJenningsKY
President Biden is ending his tenure in the White House on a “sad” note after “lying to the nation” and taking credit for a cease-fire deal between Israel and Hamas during his farewell address on Wednesday evening, a Trump transition official said.
“Joe Biden is going out sad. Lying to the nation trying to take credit for a deal that all parties credit President Trump for making happen. Biden has had well over a year to secure the release of these hostages and peace. He failed. Trump succeeded,” a Trump transition official told Fox News Digital on Wednesday evening.
War has raged in the Middle East since October of 2023, with Israel and Hamas coming to a ceasefire agreement on Wednesday that also ensured the release of hostages.
Biden delivered his final address to the nation on Wednesday evening, where he took a victory lap for the cease fire in his opening remarks.
BIDEN TAKES SOLE CREDIT FOR ISRAEL-HAMAS DEAL, WARNS OF ‘OLIGARCHY’ THREATENING DEMOCRACY IN FAREWELL SPEECH
Left: President Joe Biden delivers remarks on the latest developments in Syria from the Roosevelt Room of the White House on Dec. 8, 2024 in Washington, D.C.; Right: President-Elect Donald Trump reacts during his meeting with Prince William, Prince of Wales at the Embassy of the United Kingdom’s Residence on December 7, 2024 in Paris, France. (Left: Pete Marovich/Getty Images; Right: Oleg Nikishin/Getty Images)
“My fellow Americans, I’m speaking to you tonight from the Oval Office. Before I begin, let me speak to important news from earlier today. After eight months of nonstop negotiation, my administration – by my administration – a cease-fire and hostage deal has been reached by Israel and Hamas. The elements of which I laid out in great detail in May of this year,” Biden said.
President Joe Biden speaks from the Oval Office of the White House as he gives his farewell address Wednesday, Jan. 15, 2025, in Washington. (Mandel Ngan/Pool via AP)
“This plan was developed and negotiated by my team, and will be largely implemented by the incoming administration. That’s why I told my team to keep the incoming administration fully informed, because that’s how it should be, working together as Americans,” he continued.
PRESIDENT BIDEN RELEASES FAREWELL LETTER, SAYS IT’S BEEN ‘PRIVILEGE OF MY LIFE TO SERVE THIS NATION’
Former US President Donald Trump (L) shakes hands with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (R) as they pose for a photo during their meeting at Mar-a-Lago estate, in Palm Beach, Florida, United States on July 26, 2024. (Amos Ben-Gershom (GPO) / Handout/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Credit for reaching the agreement, however, was bolstered by the incoming Trump administration, according to sources who told Fox Digital that a recent meeting between Trump’s incoming Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly played a pivotal role in the deal.
FOX NEWS GETS AN INSIDE LOOK AT IDF’S WAR AGAINST HAMAS
Netanyahu also thanked Trump on Wednesday for “his assistance in advancing the release of the hostages.”
“Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke this evening with US President-elect Donald Trump and thanked him for his assistance in advancing the release of the hostages and for helping Israel bring an end to the suffering of dozens of hostages and their families,” the official Prime Minister of Israel X account posted.
Israel’s Iron Dome anti-missile system intercepts rockets, as seen from Ashkelon, Israel, October 1, 2024. (REUTERS/Amir Cohen)
“The Prime Minister made it clear that he is committed to returning all of the hostages however he can, and commended the US President-elect for his remarks that the US would work with Israel to ensure that Gaza will never be a haven for terrorism.”
The X account added later: “Prime Minister Netanyahu then spoke with US President Joe Biden and thanked him as well for his assistance in advancing the hostages deal.”
ISRAEL-HAMAS CEASE-FIRE, HOSTAGE RELEASE DEAL REACHED: ‘AMERICANS WILL BE PART OF THAT’
When asked who the history books would remember for championing the ceasefire deal earlier Wednesday, Biden balked at the suggestion Trump and his team spearheaded the effort.
“Who in the history books gets credit for this, Mr. President, you or Trump?” Fox News’ Jacqui Heinrich asked Biden at Wednesday afternoon’s White House news conference.
“Is that a joke?” the president responded.
“Oh. Thank you,” Biden responded when Heinrich said it was not a joke, and then walked away.
WASHINGTON — Once a bitter critic of President-elect Donald Trump, Republican Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida headed into his first Senate hearing Wednesday as nominee for secretary of State.
Rubio, with extensive experience on Capitol Hill and in foreign policy circles, appears to be the least controversial in Trump’s list of Cabinet picks, many of whom lack the credentials or background usually associated with their nominated jobs.
A foreign policy hawk — especially on China — Rubio, the son of Cuban immigrants, seemed likely to win easy bipartisan approval. On Wednesday, he faced the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on which he has served for 14 years.
If confirmed as expected, Rubio will be the first Latino to serve as America’s top diplomat.
In the past, Rubio largely hewed to long-standing Republican views on a multi-lateral approach to the world, embracing allies and united action. On Wednesday, he echoed Trump’s “America first” philosophy.
His State Department, Rubio testified, will be guided by a singular objective “to promote peace abroad, and security and prosperity here at home.”
“Placing our core national interests above all else is not isolationism,” Rubio said. “The postwar global order is not just obsolete; it is now a weapon being used against us.”
China, he said, is the “most potent” enemy the United States has ever faced, its “near peer” on many fronts, including technology, economy and diplomatic muscle.
“We’ve allowed them to get away with things …. and now we are dealing with the ramifications of that,” he said, advocating the U.S. must fortify its own industrial and supply chain capabilities to prevent “total dependence … from our security to our health” on the communist-led nation.
Rubio, who recently voted against an aid package for Ukraine, echoed Trump in saying Kyiv’s war with Russia had to come to an end. “There will have to be concessions made” by both Russia and Ukraine, he said. Many observers worry that Trump’s affinity for Russian President Vladimir Putin will lead to him demanding more sacrifice from Ukraine in any peace negotiation.
The hearing was interrupted by protesters; Rubio quipped that at least he gets bilingual demonstrators.
But overall, the mood among the senators was friendly and lacked the confrontations of the previous day’s hearing of Fox TV commentator Pete Hegseth, whom Trump has nominated to be secretary of Defense. Senators questioned Hegseth about his experience, drinking, position on women in combat roles and allegations of sexual assault, which he has denied.
When President-elect Donald J. Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, met with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel on Saturday to pressure him on a cease-fire deal in Gaza, there was someone on the speakerphone: Brett H. McGurk, President Biden’s longtime Mideast negotiator.
It was a vivid example of cooperation between two men representing bitter political rivals whose relationship has been best described as poisonous. Rarely if ever have teams of current and new presidents of different parties worked together at such a high-stakes moment, with the fate of American lives and the future of a devastating war hanging in the balance.
Both Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden publicly claimed credit for the breakthrough.
“This EPIC ceasefire agreement could have only happened as a result of our Historic Victory in November,” Mr. Trump wrote on his social media site even before the deal was formally announced in the Middle East.
At the White House, Mr. Biden told reporters that his administration had worked tirelessly for months to convince the two sides to halt the fighting. He called it “one of the toughest negotiations I’ve ever experienced” and gave credit to “an extraordinary team of American diplomats who have worked nonstop for months to get this done.”
As he left the room, a reporter asked Mr. Biden, “Who gets credit for this, Mr. President, you or Trump?” Mr. Biden stopped, turned around and smiled.
“Is that a joke?” he asked.
But despite the tension between the current president and the next one, their representatives in the Middle East described a cooperative working relationship in the weeks since Election Day.
“Brett is in the lead,” Mr. Witkoff said last week at Mar-a-Lago, Mr. Trump’s club in Florida, describing the working relationship. That description was accurate by all accounts, even if it did not match what Mr. Trump had said moments before in one of several statements describing his negotiators as critical players.
In fact, Mr. Trump’s threat that “all hell” would break loose if no deal was reached before his inauguration on Monday might have helped motivate Hamas’s leadership to make final decisions. But people familiar with the negotiations said the announcement on Wednesday of a deal to temporarily end hostilities in Gaza was the result of months of work by Mr. McGurk in the Middle East, capped off by several weeks of carefully coordinated efforts by Mr. Witkoff.
Mr. Witkoff, 67, a blunt real estate investor from the Bronx, has largely planted himself in Qatar for the negotiations, knowing that whatever Mr. McGurk negotiated, he would have to execute. In fact, the 33 hostages who will be released under the cease-fire deal may not see freedom until Inauguration Day or after. The cease-fire would expire six weeks later, unless Phase 2 of the agreement kicks in.
By design, the goal was to send a unified message that the fighting must end and the hostages held by Hamas must be released. One person familiar with the negotiations, who like others spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe the discussions, said Mr. McGurk was more involved in hammering out details of the agreement, while Mr. Witkoff’s role was to make clear that Mr. Trump wanted a deal by the time he is inaugurated.
The president-elect has also been setting some early parameters in his dealings with Mr. Netanyahu — who, for all his support of Mr. Trump in the election, was perceived by the Trump camp as dragging his feet on a deal. Mr. Witkoff flew to to Israel from Doha on Saturday — despite the Sabbath — to underscore the message that Mr. Netanyahu had to get on board.
Mr. Witkoff’s work, including the meeting with Mr. Netanyahu, helped Mr. McGurk and the Biden administration to put pressure on both sides during the negotiation, according to the person familiar with the talks.
It was not at all clear that such an arrangement would work in the days immediately after Mr. Trump won a second term.
He and Mr. Biden have barely talked in recent weeks, their already acrimonious relationship weighed down by the Trump team’s determination to clean out the White House career staff and the Biden team issuing last-minute orders to box in the new administration.
In his remarks on Wednesday, Mr. Biden acknowledged some level of cooperation and respect between their aides.
“This deal was developed and negotiated under my administration, but its terms will be implemented for the most part by the next administration,” Mr. Biden told reporters. “In these past few days, we’ve been speaking as one team.”
But he did not give any more credit to Mr. Trump for helping the effort. For his part, the president-elect said he was “thrilled” that the American hostages would be released, but he did not mention Mr. Biden or the work of the current administration.
“We have achieved so much without even being in the White House,” Mr. Trump wrote. “Just imagine all of the wonderful things that will happen when I return to the White House, and my Administration is fully confirmed, so they can secure more Victories for the United States!”
Both leaders left it to staff members to describe the way they had worked together on the Gaza negotiations.
A person familiar with that effort said a close partnership between Mr. McGurk and Mr. Witkoff was part of an “incredibly effective” process by which the Biden administration finalized a deal that the Trump administration would have to oversee.
That cooperation began soon after Mr. Trump won the election and named Mr. Witkoff to be his envoy to the region. Biden administration officials have said they believe the momentum for a deal began before that, when Mr. Biden helped broker a separate agreement to end fighting between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. That isolated Hamas and helped persuade the group that a cease-fire was in its interests, according to Biden officials.
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