Politics
Jackson Vote Poses a Political Dilemma for Murkowski
WASHINGTON — When President Biden nominated Choose Ketanji Brown Jackson to a prestigious appeals court docket final 12 months, Senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, a centrist identified for her willingness to interrupt along with her social gathering, was one among solely three Republicans to vote to verify her.
Now Ms. Murkowski, who’s in a difficult re-election race within the state she has represented for twenty years, faces a troublesome political predicament as she weighs whether or not to assist Choose Jackson’s affirmation to the Supreme Courtroom, becoming a member of Democrats in backing the primary Black lady to serve there.
The 2 different Republicans who supported Choose Jackson for her present submit have come down on reverse sides of the query. Senator Susan Collins of Maine mentioned on Wednesday that she would vote to verify Choose Jackson, calling her certified and skilled. Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina mentioned on Thursday that he would oppose the choose, calling her a liberal judicial activist.
That leaves Ms. Murkowski, who says she remains to be undecided, and who’s amongst a small however dwindling group of Republicans whom the White Home regards as prime targets to assist Choose Jackson.
“I do know that others have already made their choices; that’s good for them,” Ms. Murkowski instructed reporters on Wednesday, hours after Ms. Collins introduced her place. The Alaskan indicated that she was not near a choice forward of a vote that Democrats are planning for late subsequent week, and that she nonetheless supposed to “get extra into my course of.”
Ms. Murkowski’s course of is thought to be unpredictable, and this 12 months it includes some tough political calculations.
The three-term senator has the excellence of being the one Senate Republican who voted to convict former President Donald J. Trump in his second impeachment trial who can be dealing with voters this 12 months. Again dwelling in Alaska, she is confronting a feisty challenger on her proper who has been endorsed by Mr. Trump. A “no” vote on Choose Jackson might shore up her standing with conservatives who might have been alienated when she broke with the previous president.
However new election guidelines in Alaska have scrambled the political calculus. For the primary time, candidates will compete in an open major no matter social gathering, and the 4 high vote-getters will advance to the overall election, the place voters will rank them to find out a winner. The system provides candidates an incentive to attraction to the broadest doable constituency in each events, quite than their very own social gathering’s slim set of core supporters.
For Ms. Murkowski, a vote to verify Choose Jackson might doubtlessly assist her cobble collectively a coalition of centrist Republicans, independents and Democrats to make up for these on the suitable who might have deserted her due to her frequent defections from the social gathering line, and from Mr. Trump.
That has been a profitable method for her in previous races, and Ms. Murkowski’s allies argue that it’s her likeliest path to re-election.
“There’s no proper to shore up,” mentioned Jim Lottsfeldt, a lobbyist and political marketing consultant based mostly in Alaska who’s shut with Ms. Murkowski. “The individuals who love Trump is not going to forgive her for the impeachment vote; it’s a waste of time to chase them.”
There is no such thing as a public polling but within the race, and neither candidate is operating tv advertisements. Ms. Murkowski’s advisers insist that politics not often, if ever, play into her votes on judicial nominees. They observe that her 2018 vote towards Justice Brett M. Kavanaugh, Mr. Trump’s nominee, demonstrated that she is keen to pay a political worth to vote her conscience. (Mr. Trump mentioned on the time that she would “by no means get well” from the vote.)
She tends to maintain her personal counsel, and her workers usually doesn’t know the way she plans to vote. Two years after her will-she-or-won’t-she vote on Justice Kavanaugh, Ms. Murkowski voted to verify Justice Amy Coney Barrett, one other of Mr. Trump’s Supreme Courtroom nominees, regardless of vocally objecting to her social gathering’s rushed course of to push by the nomination on the eve of the 2020 election.
“She appears to be like on the file, she appears to be like on the particular person, she appears to be like on the qualification and talks to them with an open thoughts,” mentioned Scott Kendall, who beforehand served as her marketing campaign counselor.
However her precarious political scenario has solely elevated the stress on Ms. Murkowski with regards to Supreme Courtroom battles previous.
As she regarded towards a troublesome re-election race in 2010, Ms. Murkowski voted to oppose the affirmation of two of President Barack Obama’s Supreme Courtroom nominees. She registered a shock “no” on Justice Sonia Sotomayor in 2009, citing the nominee’s choices in previous instances involving the Second Modification and property rights. A 12 months later, she opposed Justice Elena Kagan, whom she known as “evasive.”
She would go on to lose her major anyway to Joe Miller, a Tea Occasion candidate, however then mounted a profitable write-in marketing campaign from the political heart and have become the primary write-in candidate in additional than 50 years to win a Senate election.
This 12 months, Ms. Murkowski has loads of floor to make up with conservatives in her state, which twice voted overwhelmingly for Mr. Trump. She was censured in 2021 by the Alaska Republican Occasion for her vote to convict Mr. Trump throughout his second impeachment trial.
She is being challenged by Kelly Tshibaka, a Trump acolyte who has promoted false claims of election fraud and written articles in assist of homosexual conversion remedy. Mr. Trump, whose midterm political technique is pushed nearly fully by a vengeful effort to unseat Republicans who broke with him, has mentioned he plans to marketing campaign within the state for Ms. Tshibaka, who additionally employed his former marketing campaign managers.
After the only real Democrat within the race dropped out final week, Ms. Murkowski has no challenger on her left.
3 Issues to Know About Choose Ketanji Brown Jackson’s Nomination
1. Her affirmation is almost ensured. After a bruising set of hearings, Democrats are united behind Choose Jackson. The backing of Senator Joe Manchin III signaled that every one 50 Senate Democrats would assist her nomination, which Republicans can be unable to cease.
Which means she would pay little political worth for voting towards Choose Jackson’s affirmation.
“Her largest problem would come from the suitable, or from Trump,” mentioned Senator Kevin Cramer, Republican of North Dakota. “If she voted ‘no,’ it could be exhausting accountable her.”
The silver lining for Ms. Murkowski is that 60 p.c of voters are usually not registered Republicans or registered Democrats.
Regardless of the state’s deeply embedded impartial streak and the adjustments to the election guidelines that make the race much less partisan, Ms. Tshibaka has framed the affirmation vote as yet one more instance of Ms. Murkowski catering to Democrats.
“Alaskans are uninterested in the identical previous guessing recreation, ‘Which approach will Murkowski vote?’” Ms. Tshibaka mentioned in an announcement. “She’s at all times torn between doing what’s proper for Alaska or catering to her Washington, D.C., elitist mates.”
If elected, Ms. Tshibaka mentioned, she would by no means assist “the leftist nominees and the D.C. insiders.”
Mr. Lottsfeldt mentioned he had watched the senator deliberate on Supreme Courtroom nominations and that she seen them, specifically, as “out of the realm of odd politics.”
“Then you definitely overlay Jan. 6, the dearth of civility and the entire Trump expertise, and I feel these emotions turn into elevated for her,” he mentioned. Ms. Collins’s determination to vote in favor of Choose Jackson’s affirmation, he mentioned, “makes it a lot extra protected for Lisa to do what she desires to do. I do know Lisa was shocked after they cut up on Kavanaugh.”
Nonetheless, Ms. Murkowski’s conservative supporters in Washington would favor to have one fewer concern for her to subject assaults on. Many stay annoyed by her vote towards Justice Kavanaugh, in addition to her vote to verify Deb Haaland, the Biden administration’s inside secretary, arguing that these actions have made her re-election bid that rather more troublesome.
But her file displays the singular attributes of her uncommon state.
Ms. Murkowski has usually recounted to mates again dwelling a narrative a few non-public assembly of Republican lawmakers the place senators have been reviewing the political make-up of every state. When Alaska flashed on the display, exhibiting greater than 60 p.c of voters not registered as Republicans or Democrats, Senator Joni Ernst, Republican of Iowa, gasped.
“Oh!” she exclaimed. “That’s why you vote the way in which you do.”
The fact of that map seems to have caught with Ms. Ernst.
“It is vitally difficult, however I do know Lisa will do what is correct for her constituents,” she mentioned in an interview on Wednesday. “I belief her judgment, and he or she is aware of her state finest.”
Politics
Political betting markets still have plenty of action despite end of election season
The end of the election season does not mean the end of political betting, with many platforms allowing users to place wagers on everything from the 2028 election to who will be confirmed to President-elect Donald Trump’s Cabinet.
“Some people will be amazed by this, but people are already betting on 2026 and 2028,” Maxim Lott, the founder of ElectionBettingOdds.com, told Fox News Digital. “There’s been about a quarter million dollars bet already.”
The comments come after the 2024 election produced plenty of betting action, with users across multiple platforms wagering over $2 billion on the outcome of the latest race.
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While mega sporting events, such as the Super Bowl and the recent Mike Tyson vs. Jake Paul fight, gives gamblers plenty to wager on after the election, those looking for something political to bet on will still have plenty of options.
One of the most popular topics is who will be the nominees for both major parties in 2028, with ElectionBettingOdds.com showing California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Vice President-elect JD Vance being the current leaders for Democrats and Republicans, respectively.
Other names with a significant amount of attention for betters include Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer for the Democratic nomination, while Vance is trailed by names like entrepreneur and future head of the new Department of Government Efficiency Vivek Ramaswamy and Donald Trump Jr. on the Republican side.
“The big Democratic governors are favored to be the next nominee,” Lott said, noting that Vance currently holds a sizable lead over other options on the GOP side.
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Vance is also the current betting leader on who will win the 2028 presidential election, ElectionBettingOdds.com shows, followed by Newson and Shapiro as the next two likely options.
However, Lott warned it is still too early to tell what the future holds, noting that the markets will start to provide more clarity as more information becomes known over the next few years.
“As the future becomes clearer… as we get closer to 2026, 2028, these odds will change,” Lott said. “So if the Trump administration is doing really well, the economy is booming, inflation is not out of control, wars are ending, Vance’s odds will certainly go up.”
Bettors also are not limited to wagering on elections, with platforms such as Polymarket allowing users to place bets on Trump’s picks to serve in his Cabinet and whether they will be confirmed. Bettors can also place wagers on questions such as if they believe the war in Ukraine will end in Trump’s first 90 days or if there will be a cease-fire in Gaza in 2024.
According to Lott, taking a look at the current betting odds for many scenarios can help inform you about what is going on in the world, even if you do not place bets yourself.
“People often ask… is there any value to this… it’s just gambling. It’s silly,” Lott said. “But actually it’s very useful… if you want to know what’s going to happen in 2028 or if the Trump administration is going to be a success, you could read 100 news articles on it. Some will misinform you. Or, you can just go to the prediction markets and see… is Vance a 20% chance of becoming the next Republican nominee or is he a 90% chance? That tells you a lot.”
Politics
As Trump’s lead in popular vote shrinks, does he really have a 'mandate'?
In his victory speech on Nov. 6, President-elect Donald Trump claimed Americans had given him an “unprecedented and powerful mandate.”
It’s a message his transition team has echoed in the last three weeks, referring to his “MAGA Mandate” and a “historic mandate for his agenda.”
But given that Trump’s lead in the popular vote has dwindled as more votes have been counted in California and other states that lean blue, there is fierce disagreement over whether most Americans really endorse his plans to overhaul government and implement sweeping change.
The latest tally from the Cook Political Report shows Trump winning 49.83% of the popular vote, with a margin of 1.55% over Vice President Kamala Harris.
If there ever was a mandate, this isn’t it.
— Hans Noel, Georgetown University
The president-elect’s share of the popular vote now falls in the bottom half for American presidents — far below that of Democrat Lyndon B. Johnson, who won 61.1% of the popular vote in 1964, defeating Republican Sen. Barry Goldwater by nearly 23 percentage points.
In the last 75 years, only three presidents — John F. Kennedy in 1960, Richard Nixon in 1968 and George W. Bush in 2000 — had popular-vote margins smaller than Trump’s current lead.
“If there ever was a mandate, this isn’t it,” said Hans Noel, associate professor of government at Georgetown University.
Trump’s commanding electoral college victory of 312 votes to Harris’ 226 is clear. And unlike in 2016, when he beat former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, he won the popular vote and the needed support in the electoral college.
The question is whether Trump can garner significant public support to push through his more contentious administration picks and the most radical elements of his policy agenda, such as bringing in the military to enforce mass deportations.
Democrats say that the results fall short of demonstrating majority public support for Trump and that the numbers do not give him a mandate to deviate from precedent, such as naming Cabinet members without Senate confirmation.
“There’s no mandate here,” Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.) said last week on CNN, noting Trump had suggested using “recess appointments” to get around Senate hearings and votes for his nominees. “What there certainly should not be is a blank check to appoint a chaos Cabinet.”
GOP strategist Lanhee Chen, a fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution who ran for California controller in 2022, rejects such framing by Democrats. He argues that Trump’s victory was “quite resounding,” in large part because it defied expectations.
In an election that almost all political pundits expected would be close and protracted, he reversed Democrats’ 2020 gains, won all seven battleground states and even made inroads with voters in blue states such as California. Republicans also will take control of the Senate and retain their control of the House.
“Look, if the popular vote ends up having him at 49.6% versus 50.1%, do I think it’s a meaningful difference?” Chen said. “No, I don’t.”
Scholars of American politics have long been skeptical of the idea of a presidential mandate.
The first president to articulate such a concept was Andrew Jackson, the nation’s seventh president, who viewed his 1832 reelection — in which he won 54.2% of the popular vote — as a mandate to destroy the Second Bank of the United States and expand his political authority. In arguing he had the mandate of the people, Jackson deviated from the approach of previous presidents in refusing to defer to Congress on policy.
In “Myth of the Presidential Mandate,” Robert A. Dahl, a professor of political science at Yale University, argued the presidential mandate was “harmful to American public life” because it “elevates the president to an exalted position in our constitutional system at the expense of Congress.”
Even if we accept the premise of a mandate, there is little consensus on when a candidate has achieved it.
“How do we know what voters were thinking as they cast ballots?” Julia R. Azari, an assistant professor of political science at Marquette University, wrote in a recent essay. “Are some elections mandates and others not? If so, how do we know? What’s the popular vote cutoff — is it a majority or more? Who decides?”
In “Delivering the People’s Message: The Changing Politics of the Presidential Mandate,” she argues that it’s politicians in weak positions who typically invoke mandates. This century, she wrote, presidents have cited mandates with increasing frequency as a result of the declining status of the presidency and growing national polarization.
That’s particularly true of Trump, who has long reveled in hyperbole.
In 2016, he bragged that he’d won in a “massive landslide victory,” even though his electoral college win of 304 to Clinton’s 227 was not particularly dramatic by historic standards and he lost the popular vote by 2 percentage points.
Four years later, he refused to accept he lost the electoral college and the popular vote to Joe Biden, falsely claiming he was the victim of voter fraud.
When Trump speaks of his supposed mandate, he is not an outlier, but is drawing from bipartisan history.
In the last four decades, no president has won the popular vote by double digits, but politicians including George W. Bush and Barack Obama have increasingly tried to justify their agendas by invoking public support.
When Democrat Bill Clinton defeated Republican President George H.W. Bush and Ross Perot, an independent, in 1992, his failure to win a majority of votes did not stop his running mate, Al Gore, from declaring they had a “mandate for change.” Five days after Clinton was inaugurated, he announced he was creating a task force to devise a sweeping plan to provide universal healthcare.
“In my lifetime, at least,” Clinton told reporters, “there has never been so much consensus that something has to be done.” The effort ultimately failed for lack of political support.
The fake news is trying to minimize President Trump’s massive and historic victory to try to delegitimize his mandate.
— Karoline Leavitt, incoming White House press secretary
Four years ago, Biden also declared a “mandate for action.”
And while Biden prevailed in the electoral college 306 to 232, his share of the popular vote was 51.3%, hardly a dominant performance.
As mainstream news outlets have reported on Trump’s shrinking popular margin, Karoline Leavitt, Trump’s incoming White House press secretary, has lashed out at the media.
“New Fake News Narrative Alert!” Leavitt posted on X, adding a red warning light emoji. “The fake news is trying to minimize President Trump’s massive and historic victory to try to delegitimize his mandate.”
Trump’s victory is not by any objective measure “massive or historic.” But Republicans say that news outlets have subjected him to a different standard than they apply to Democratic presidents.
After Clinton won in 1992 after 12 years of GOP presidents, some Republicans note, Time magazine put his face on its cover with the headline “Mandate for Change.”
Clinton won just 43% of the popular vote, one of the lowest shares in U.S. history.
Presidents sometimes bolster their claims of a mandate by cherry-picking polling results.
On Sunday, Trump’s transition team highlighted new polling from CBS News, claiming it showed “overwhelming support” for his “transition and agenda.”
But even though the poll indicated that 59% of Americans approved of Trump’s handling of the presidential transition, it did not show overwhelming or even majority support for many parts of his agenda.
For example, while Trump won strong backing for his broad immigration plan, with 57% supporting a “national program to find and deport all immigrants who are in the U.S. illegally,” the poll showed far less support — 40% — for his plan to use the military to carry out deportations.
Whatever the popular vote, the Hoover Institution’s Chen argues, Trump is in a strong position because he can count on GOP majorities in both houses of Congress.
“He’s going to be able to do, from a legislative perspective, largely what he wants to do,” Chen said.
But several GOP senators have already emphasized the importance of requiring FBI background checks for Trump’s more contentious nominees.
It also appears he lacks public support for pushing through his picks without Senate approval. More than three-quarters of respondents, according to the CBS poll, believe the Senate should vote on Trump’s appointments.
Noel, the Georgetown professor, said that Trump’s rhetorical strategy aside, the president-elect might have to move past the “‘I won, so everybody get out of my way’ kind of politics” and work behind the scenes to seek common ground with moderate Republicans and maybe even some Democrats.
“In the past, people have made strong claims about mandates, but then they’ve coupled that with more cautious policymaking,” Noel said. “If Trump doesn’t do that — if he acts like he believes his own story — then we’re in a different, more Trumpian kind of place.”
Politics
Texas could bus migrants directly to ICE for deportation instead of sanctuary cities under proposed plan
Texas could implement a plan to bus migrants directly to U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in an effort to get them processed for deportation, according to media reports.
The move would be a departure from the state’s program, part of Operation Lone Star, that has bussed thousands of migrants to sanctuary cities, a source told the New York Post. It has yet to be approved by Gov. Greg Abbott.
Fox News Digital has reached out to Abbott’s office and ICE.
“We are always going to be involved in border security so long as we’re a border state,” a Texas government source told the newspaper. “We spent a lot of taxpayer money to have the level of deterrent that we have on the border, and we can’t just walk away.”
TRUMP SAYS MEXICO WILL STOP FLOW OF MIGRANTS AFTER SPEAKING WITH MEXICAN PRESIDENT FOLLOWING TARIFF THREATS
Abbott has been especially aggressive in combating illegal immigration, bussing migrants to blue cities in an effort to bring attention to the border crisis. Under the proposed plan, buses chartered by Texas from border cities will be taken to federal detention centers to help ICE agents process migrants quickly, the Post reported.
Texas has been in a legal fight with the Biden administration over its efforts to curb illegal immigration. On Wednesday, an appeals court ruled that the state has the right to build a razor wire border wall to deter migrants.
Officials have also offered land to the incoming Trump administration to build deportation centers to hold illegal immigrant criminals.
LIBERAL NANTUCKET REELS FROM MIGRANT CRIME WAVE AS BIDEN SPENDS THANKSGIVING IN RICH FRIEND’S MANSION
“My office has identified several of our properties and is standing by ready to make this happen on Day One of the Trump presidency,” Texas Land Commissioner Dawn Buckingham said during a visit to the border Tuesday.
Authorities have also warned of unaccompanied migrant children being caught near the border. On Thursday, a 10-year-old boy from El Salvador told state troopers in Maverick County, Texas, that he had been lost and left behind by a human smuggler.
The boy was holding a cellphone and crying, Texas Department of Public Safety Lt. Chris Olivarez posted on X. The child said his parents were in the U.S.
APPEALS COURT RULES TEXAS HAS RIGHT TO BUILD RAZOR WIRE BORDER WALL TO DETER ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION: ‘HUGE WIN’
On Sunday, troopers encountered an unaccompanied 2-year-old girl from El Salvador holding a piece of paper with a phone number and her name. She told authorities that her parents were also in the U.S.
That morning, state troopers also encountered a group of 211 illegal immigrants in Maverick County. Among the group were 60 unaccompanied children, ages 2 to 17, and six special interest immigrants from Mali and Angola.
“Regardless of political views, it is unacceptable for any child to be exposed to dangerous criminal trafficking networks,” Olivarez wrote at the time. “With a record number of unaccompanied children and hundreds of thousands missing, there is no one ensuring the safety & security of these children except for the men & women who are on the frontlines daily.”
He noted that the “reality is that many children are exploited & trafficked, never to be heard from again.”
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