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Georgia has its primary today. Here’s what to watch

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Georgia has its primary today. Here’s what to watch

Former President Trump has eagerly injected himself into practically each main Republican main battle thus far. However he has a particular incentive for the trouble he’s exerted in Georgia.

For Trump, Tuesday’s election marks the inaugural cease in his 2020 revenge tour — the primary alternatives he’s needed to unseat Republicans whom he considers disloyal for refusing to acquiesce in his baseless fraud claims.

The previous president personally recruited GOP Gov. Brian Kemp’s challenger, former Sen. David Perdue, and donated thousands and thousands to prop up his choose. However polls point out Perdue could also be headed to an embarrassing defeat.

Trump could have extra luck in ousting Republican Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, who’s locked in a good race with Rep. Jody Hice, a vocal proponent of 2020 election lies.

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These contests, together with the possible rise of soccer legend Herschel Walker and a pair of battles for the route of the Democratic Celebration, make up a busy evening of midterm main motion. Right here’s what you’ll want to know.

Successful over Trump voters regardless of Trump

For many of final yr, Trump confidently predicted that Kemp’s political future was completed, promising at one level “the MAGA base — which is gigantic — won’t ever vote for him.”

As an alternative, Kemp has proved it’s doable to win over Trump loyalists with out Trump. The facility of being an incumbent governor has been key. Kemp signed plenty of payments reflecting conservative priorities, together with new voting restrictions, banning native governments from sharply decreasing police budgets and limiting dialogue about race in school rooms.

An April Morning Seek the advice of ballot discovered that half of all Georgia voters, together with 76% of the state’s Republicans, thought Kemp was doing an excellent job. That sort of job approval explains how Kemp secured the backing of many in Georgia’s political institution, in addition to nationwide Republicans more and more prepared to defy Trump, together with former Vice President Mike Pence.

Perdue, in the meantime, has discovered little momentum in his most important election concern: asserting falsely that Trump received the 2020 presidential race. He spent the closing days not claiming he would win, however solely that he was not shedding as badly as polls recommend.

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An election grudge down-ballot

The benefits of incumbency don’t go as far for Raffensperger in his reelection bid for secretary of state. There have been fewer alternatives for him to fix fences with conservatives, who stay indignant over his refusal to overturn the presidential election, which Trump has forged as a betrayal.

Hice voted final yr in opposition to certifying the outcomes of the 2020 presidential race and was concerned in discussions designed to strain Pence to throw out disputed electoral votes, based on testimony collected by the congressional investigation into the Jan. 6, 2021, assault on the Capitol. Ought to he win, he would oversee the election administration in a pivotal 2024 battleground.

A ballot final month by the Atlanta Journal-Structure discovered Raffensperger and Hice practically tied; a considerable portion of the voters remained undecided. Raffensperger, like Kemp and different statewide candidates, should win greater than 50% of the vote to keep away from a runoff.

Setting the stage for November

How’s this for an attention-getting trifecta: Stacey Abrams, Herschel Walker, Sen. Raphael Warnock. Their primaries have been comparatively quiet, however Tuesday’s election places Georgia one step nearer to a blockbuster common election that includes these nationwide figures.

Abrams, the presumed Democratic nominee for governor, is making ready for a rematch of her 2018 marketing campaign in opposition to Kemp. Abrams’ profile has solely grown since her slim loss 4 years in the past, particularly because the fruits of her years of organizing helped flip Georgia blue in 2020. However the headwinds are far stiffer for Democrats this yr; early polls have proven Kemp with a bonus, though their head-to-head matchup has not but begun in earnest.

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The race for U.S. Senate will most likely pit a Georgia soccer legend in opposition to the state’s political trailblazer. Walker, greatest identified for his Heisman Trophy-winning days at College of Georgia and subsequent NFL profession, received an early nod from Trump, his former “Movie star Apprentice” mentor. He additionally received over Senate GOP Chief Mitch McConnell, who was impressed sufficient by Walker’s fundraising means to place apart considerations about his electability.

However Warnock is unlikely to let Walker off the hook for varied troubles in his previous, together with allegations of home violence and threatening conduct in opposition to ladies, in addition to turbulent enterprise dealings. The primary Black senator elected from Georgia, Warnock is the highest fundraiser in Congress as he strives to win his first full time period. Republicans, in the meantime, have raised scrutiny of Warnock’s custody battle together with his ex-wife, an indication that either side are girding for a bruising election.

Battle within the ‘burbs

Georgia would haven’t grow to be a hotly contested swing state if not for the suburbs. The counties surrounding Atlanta have been diversifying and more and more electing Democrats, together with Rep. Lucy McBath in 2018 and Rep. Carolyn Bourdeaux two years later.

However Republicans managed the redistricting course of final yr, and so they redrew one suburban district to make sure it will tilt extra solidly pink. That left the 2 incumbent Democrats vying for the opposite, bluer seat.

Bourdeaux’s present seat extra intently aligns with the brand new district traces, whereas McBath has a extra nationwide profile due to her gun security activism after her son Jordan was killed. A 3rd Democrat, state Rep. Donna McLeod, can be in competition.

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The battle displays the brand new redistricting actuality: In starkly partisan districts, the actual contest is between members of the identical get together, not the overall election. Whoever emerges because the winner would be the heavy favourite in November.

An uncommon ‘un-endorsement’

If a Trump endorsement can breathe new life right into a marketing campaign, a Trump “un-endorsement” was extensively anticipated to be a demise knell for Rep. Mo Brooks’ marketing campaign to be Alabama’s subsequent senator.

Brooks, an ardent 2020 election denier, received Trump’s backing practically a yr earlier than Alabamians went to the polls. However Trump rescinded his assist in March, complaining the congressman had “gone woke” as a result of he acknowledged there was no pathway to instantly reinstate Trump as president.

Most political observers thought the unstated purpose for Trump’s about-face was Brooks’ sluggish marketing campaign, which was being outpaced by Katie Britt, a former chief of workers to retiring Sen. Richard Shelby, and Mike Durant, a businessman and former army helicopter pilot who was shot down practically 30 years in the past within the “Black Hawk Down” incident in Somalia.

However latest polls present that Brooks’ marketing campaign should still have life in it — a minimum of sufficient to make it right into a runoff.

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Democratic showdown on the border

Spats inside the GOP have generated extra headlines this yr, however the Democratic primaries have had their very own fights over the route of the get together. The fiercest thus far has been taking part in out alongside the Texas-Mexico border, the place progressive candidate Jessica Cisneros is making an attempt for a second time to oust centrist incumbent Rep. Henry Cuellar.

Cuellar narrowly outpaced Cisneros of their March matchup, however neither candidate received sufficient votes to keep away from Tuesday’s runoff.

The race had lengthy been seen as a face-off between the poles of the Democratic Celebration. However the contrasts sharpened even additional after the leak of a draft Supreme Court docket determination that might overturn Roe vs. Wade. Cuellar, one of many few antiabortion members left within the get together, was quickly blasted by Cisneros for his place.

Whereas Cisneros has campaigned with the left’s most distinguished stars, together with Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, Cuellar has denounced her as too far left for this majority-Latino district. With Democrats overtly fretting about how you can enchantment to moderates, in addition to about their slipping numbers amongst Latinos, they’re intently watching the result in Texas.

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What to Make of the ‘Zombie Vote’ Against Donald Trump

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What to Make of the ‘Zombie Vote’ Against Donald Trump

Even after Nikki Haley dropped out of the Republican presidential primary, effectively handing the party’s nomination to former President Donald J. Trump, nearly 20 percent of G.O.P. primary voters have cast ballots for someone other than Mr. Trump. The Pennsylvania primary on Tuesday, where Ms. Haley won more than 16 percent, was just the latest example.

These anti-Trump votes have been closely watched, particularly in light of the unusually high number of votes for “uncommitted” and candidates other than President Biden in this year’s Democratic primary.

Ballots cast for candidates who have suspended their campaigns are sometimes called zombie votes. This phenomenon is hardly new.

In fact, a review of contested primaries since 2000 reveals that sizable shares of the electorate routinely chose someone other than the eventual nominee, even after all other serious contenders had dropped out.

The zombie vote in presidential primaries

Share of the vote against the nominee after all serious contenders have dropped out

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Note: The zombie vote refers to the median vote share against a party’s eventual nominee in primary contests after their major opponents had all withdrawn.

By The New York Times

In 2020, Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont withdrew from the Democratic primary on April 8, leaving Joseph R. Biden Jr. as the only serious candidate in the race. Still, in the weeks and months that followed, Mr. Sanders received votes. In the Pennsylvania Democratic primary on June 2, 2020, for example, more than 20 percent of voters chose someone other than Mr. Biden, including 18 percent who selected Mr. Sanders.

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The zombie vote in this year’s Republican primary has actually been low by historical standards. In Democratic and Republican primaries going back to 2000, roughly a quarter of voters picked a candidate other than the eventual nominee even after all the other serious contenders had exited the race.

How this year’s zombie vote compares to previous years

Each rectangle represents the vote share in a state’s presidential primary contest.

There are many factors that lead to zombie votes. Not all of them indicate a true protest vote from party loyalists against the eventual nominee.

One factor is the rise of early voting and mail ballots. In Florida, for example, around one in three Republican voters had mailed their ballots before Ms. Haley dropped out on March 6.

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However, she has continued winning a decent chunk of votes in states where nearly all voting has occurred after her departure. In the Wisconsin election on April 2, Ms. Haley won 13 percent of the vote.

The Trump campaign has argued that some of Ms. Haley’s support has come from Democrats voting in Republican contests. This may explain the zombie vote in, for example, Georgia, where any voter can vote in either presidential primary.

But the pattern has persisted even in states like Pennsylvania, Connecticut and New York where the primaries were open only to registered Republicans.

Unlike protest votes against incumbent presidents in the form of minor candidates and ballots cast for “uncommitted,” contested primaries feature big-name candidates who get wide media exposure, have clear policy differences and forge emotional connections with many voters. Perhaps the affinity some voters develop is the easiest explanation of the persistent zombie vote across so many election cycles.

We shouldn’t expect the zombie vote to go away any time soon. In the past, the share of voters still supporting candidates who had already withdrawn remained relatively consistent, even on the last day of primaries held before the party conventions. And there is no pattern linking the size of the zombie vote to the eventual nominee’s chances of winning or losing in the general election.

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For Mr. Trump, what matters is how many of Ms. Haley’s primary voters will rally behind him come November. Polls have shown that her supporters are likely to say they will vote for Mr. Biden. Even so, those same polls often find that many of those voters already supported Mr. Biden in 2020.

Sources

Primary election results for 2024 are from The Associated Press. Results for previous years are from the Federal Election Commission. The Democratic primaries in 2008 and 2016 were not included in the analysis because they were contested through the final primaries. Caucus results were also not included.

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Vulnerable Dem senator ripped for ignoring questions about Biden's push to 'ban' gas-powered cars

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Vulnerable Dem senator ripped for ignoring questions about Biden's push to 'ban' gas-powered cars

Ohio Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown faced immediate backlash Tuesday after video circulated of him refusing to answer a question about whether he supports the Biden administration’s push to “ban” gas-powered cars.

“Senator Brown, do you think that gas cars should be banned,” Brown was asked while walking down the street in Washington, D.C. in a video posted online. 

After Brown didn’t answer and kept walking, he was asked if he “supports the EPA’s decision to ban gas cars?”

Brown again declined to answer before he was asked a third time a “yes or no” question asking, “Should gas cars be banned?”

VULNERABLE DEM SENATOR BLASTED OVER VOTING RECORD AFTER AD TOUTS STRENGTH ON IMMIGRATION: ‘WON’T BE FOOLED’

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Sen. Sherrod Brown, left, and President Biden (Getty Images)

Brown declined to answer a third time and continued on his way.

“While facing his toughest election yet, Sherrod Brown is running from his decades-long record of supporting green energy schemes that burden hardworking Ohioans with higher prices and cripple our energy sector,” Reagan McCarthy, communications director for Brown’s Senate opponent, Republican businessman Bernie Moreno, told Fox News Digital in a statement. 

“Make no mistake, Brown supported Joe Biden’s radical anti-energy agenda since day one of this administration.”

Moreno also posted the exchange on X, saying, “Sherrod Brown won’t answer because the truth is that he is a green new deal radical that wants to crush American autoworkers and hand our industry to China.”

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VULNERABLE DEM SENATOR FLIP-FLOPS ON SUPPLYING ENERGY TO CHINA IN MIDDLE OF RE-ELECTION CAMPAIGN

“Sherrod Brown and Joe Biden don’t just want to ban gas cars, they want to overhaul the entire American economy to appease their far-left base,” National Republican Senatorial Committee Spokesman Philip Letsou told Fox News Digital. 

“The Democrats’ green energy agenda is enriching China while wreaking havoc on American manufacturers, and Sherrod Brown is with them every step of the way.” 

The exchange also generated criticism from social media users.

“That’s because Sherrod Brown is a Green New Deal radical who agrees with Biden!!!” Donald Trump Jr. posted on X.

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Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio

Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, during senate votes in the U.S. Capitol Jan. 23, 2024. (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)

Some on social media pointed to the fact that Brown has voted against Biden’s emissions agenda in the past and has pushed back against Biden’s EPA. 

“This is bizarre,” American Commitment President Phil Kerpen posted on X. “He actually voted right! To stop Biden’s EPA gas car ban! I mean, we knew he’d snap back after the election. But he can’t even bring himself to play the part???”

Brown has voted with President Biden nearly 100% of the time and voted to confirm 99% of Biden’s nominees. 

MAGA-ENDORSED BERNIE MORENO SET TO SQUARE OFF AGAINST INCUMBENT SHERROD BROWN IN CRITICAL OHIO SENATE RACE

A Brown spokesperson told Fox News Digital “Sen. Brown doesn’t tell anyone what kind of car they should drive.

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“He just wants more cars made in Ohio by autoworkers making middle-class wages. That’s why he has stood up to the administration when their policies were wrong for Ohio’s auto industry, and why he’s fighting to ban Chinese electric vehicles.”

The Biden administration recently finalized a slate of highly anticipated environmental regulations curbing gas-powered vehicle tailpipe emissions as part of its broader efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and combat global warming.

Under the new plan, automakers will be forced to rapidly curb the emissions of greenhouse gases, hydrocarbons, nitrogen oxides and particulate matter from new passenger cars, light trucks and larger pickups and vans beginning with model year 2027 vehicles. 

EPA

Placard on the exterior of the EPA Building in Washington, D.C. (iStock)

“At a time when millions of Americans are struggling with high costs and inflation, the Biden administration has finalized a regulation that will unequivocally eliminate most new gas cars and traditional hybrids from the U.S. market in less than a decade,” American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers President and CEO Chet Thompson and American Petroleum Institute President and CEO Mike Sommers said in a statement after the EPA rules were announced.

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“As much as the president and EPA claim to have ‘eased’ their approach, nothing could be further from the truth.”

Brown is facing a hotly contested re-election contest against Moreno in November that the Cook Political Report ranks as a toss-up and many believe provides one of the best chances Republicans have to gain control of the Senate in a state Trump carried by eight points in 2020. 

Fox News Digital’s Thomas Catenacci contributed to this report

Get the latest updates from the 2024 campaign trail, exclusive interviews and more at our Fox News Digital election hub

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Supreme Court sounds wary of Idaho's ban on emergency abortions for women whose health is in danger

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Supreme Court sounds wary of Idaho's ban on emergency abortions for women whose health is in danger

The Supreme Court justices voiced doubt Wednesday about a strict Idaho law that would make it a crime for doctors to perform an abortion even for a woman who arrives at a hospital suffering from a serious, but not life-threatening, medical emergency.

Solicitor Gen. Elizabeth B. Prelogar, representing the Biden administration, said such cases are rare and tragic. They are not elective abortions, she said, but pregnancies that have turned into medical emergencies.

Prelogar urged the high court to rule that federal emergency care law applies nationwide and sometimes requires hospitals and their doctors to perform an abortion — regardless of any state restrictions on the procedure — if a pregnant patient’s health or life is at risk.

The justices sounded closely split, but Prelogar’s argument appeared to gain traction with some conservatives.

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The clash over emergency rooms is the first direct challenge to a state’s abortion law to come before the high court since the justices overturned Roe vs. Wade in a 5-4 vote in 2022.

The court’s conservatives said then that states and their lawmakers were free to restrict or regulate abortion.

Idaho’s lawmakers voted to forbid abortion except when it is “necessary” to prevent the patient’s death. In court, their lawyers argued that the authority to regulate doctors and the practice of medicine rests with the state.

Doctors join abortion-rights supporters at a rally Wednesday outside the U.S. Supreme Court building.

(Andrew Harnik / Getty Images)

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But the Biden administration sued Idaho and said it was violating the federal Emergency Medical Treatment and Labor Act that Congress adopted in 1986. The law requires hospitals receiving federal funds to provide “necessary stabilizing treatment” to patients who face a medical emergency.

“For some pregnant women suffering tragic emergency complications, the only care that can prevent grave harm to their health is termination of the pregnancy,” the administration’s attorney said. In such situations, delay is dangerous, Prelogar added.

Idaho’s attorney, Joshua Turner, ran into sharp questions from several conservatives.

Justice Amy Coney Barrett questioned whether Idaho would use its laws to prosecute doctors who perform emergency room abortions. Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. and Justice Brett M. Kavanaugh also voiced doubt about the state’s argument.

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Barrett cast a key vote to strike down Roe vs. Wade, but took on the Idaho attorney Wednesday for refusing to say whether doctors could perform abortions in certain emergencies.

Justice Sonia Sotomayor cited real cases from Florida and elsewhere, but Turner refused to give a yes-or-no answer as to whether such abortions would be legal in Idaho.

“Counsel, I’m kind of shocked actually because I thought your own expert has said these kinds of case were covered,” Barrett said.

“It’s a subjective standard … and very case-by-case,” Turner replied.

The exchange highlighted the problem cited by emergency room doctors in Idaho. They cannot know for sure whether an abortion would be legal under the state’s law.

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What happens if the state’s lawyers believe a doctor’s intervention was not justified? “Would they be prosecuted under Idaho’s law?” Barrett asked.

Even if other doctors support the decision, “what if the prosecutor thought differently?” she said.

Roberts pressed the same point. “What happens if a dispute arises with respect to whether or not the doctor was within the confines of the Idaho law or wasn’t? Is the doctor subjected to review by a medical authority?”

Possibly, according to the state attorney. “The Board of Medicine has licensing oversight over a doctor,” Turner replied.

Kavanaugh said he was uncertain what was at stake because the state had changed its view over what emergency conditions could justify an abortion.

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Justice Elena Kagan said the law has resulted in six pregnant women being airlifted to neighboring states to obtain abortions.

Justices Sotomayor and Ketanji Brown Jackson were also sharply skeptical of Idaho’s argument.

Prelogar, the Biden administration’s attorney, assured the conservative justices that federal law includes “conscience protections” for doctors and hospitals morally opposed to abortion.

The case of Moyle vs. United States poses a clash between the federal law that requires hospitals to provide emergency care and the state’s authority to regulate doctors and the practice of medicine.

Regardless of how the court rules in the Idaho case, the outcome should have no direct effect in California or other states where abortion remains legal.

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People hold signs reading "Doctors not doctrine" and "Abortion is healthcare."

Abortion-rights supporters gather outside the Supreme Court building Wednesday.

(Andrew Harnik / Getty Images)

Turner said 22 states now prohibit most abortions, and the court’s ruling could apply to all of them.

But Prelogar said Idaho is among only six states that make no exceptions for protecting the health of a pregnant patient.

Doctors in Idaho contend the law endangers patients.

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In medical emergencies, “delay puts the patient’s life and health at risk. But the lack of clarity in the law is creating fear in our physicians,” said Dr. Jim Souza, chief physician executive for St. Luke’s Health System in Boise.

He said doctors in emergency rooms often see pregnant women whose water has broken, or who have a severe infection or are bleeding badly. An abortion may be called for in such a situation, but doctors know they could be subject to criminal prosecution if they act too soon, he said.

“Doctors are leaving the state because of the fear surrounding this law,” Souza said in an interview.

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