Politics
Democrats Find Their Inflation Villains: Vladimir Putin and Big Oil
Democrats have a brand new technique for coping with the political impression of excessive gasoline costs: Blame it on Putin and Large Oil.
That’s the one-two punch that President Biden delivered from the White Home on Tuesday as he introduced a ban on imports of Russian vitality.
First, there was the jab on the Russian president, Vladimir Putin: “Defending freedom goes to price,” Biden stated, whereas promising to ease the ache. “I’m going to do all the things I can to attenuate Putin’s value hike right here at house.”
After which a second jab at oil firms: “Russia’s aggression is costing us all,” Biden stated. “And it’s no time for profiteering or value gouging.”
Later, fielding a pair of shouted questions from Mike Memoli of NBC Information, as he boarded Air Drive One in Texas, Biden gave extra succinct solutions:
Memoli: Mr. President, do you have got a message for the American folks on fuel costs?
Biden: They’re going to go up.
Memoli: What are you able to do about it?
Biden: Can’t do a lot proper now. Russia is accountable.
Is that this going to work? We requested a few dozen pollsters, political strategists and opinion specialists, and received some fascinating solutions. They break down into roughly three camps:
-
Democratic strategists are pleased with the brand new message and optimistic that it’s going to at the very least stabilize their ballot numbers and assist their candidates.
“Each combat wants a villain, and proper now, there’s no higher one than Putin,” stated Jefrey Pollock, a Democratic political marketing consultant and pollster.
Privately, they are saying that linking fuel costs to Putin and oil firms is the White Home’s most suitable choice, although it’s exhausting to inform what is going to resonate in November.
-
Impartial pollsters and analysts usually say that voters do appear keen to make sacrifices to assist Ukraine and punish Russia, however are much less doubtless to reply to Democrats’ assaults on Large Oil.
“It issues how lengthy wouldn’t it be in impact, how a lot the rise could be and whether or not that step could be seen as being profitable,” stated Dina Smeltz, who research public opinion as a senior fellow on the Chicago Council on International Affairs.
“It’s a possible sport changer, which he badly wants on inflation,” stated Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist School Institute for Public Opinion. “However he has to hammer away every day with Dems chiming in and keep on message. ‘Putin and populism’ on daily basis, and with a Democrat supporting refrain.”
-
Republicans are assured that inflation and fuel costs are their ticket again to energy, and scoff at Democrats’ newest try to redirect voters’ frustration away from Biden.
“It might be one factor if fuel costs have been all of a sudden excessive on account of this disaster and the Biden administration may clearly level to the Ukraine state of affairs as a driver,” stated Kristen Soltis Anderson, a companion at Echelon Insights, a Republican polling agency. “The problem they are going to face is that voters have been involved about price of residing for a while now.”
‘Damaging for shopper sentiment’
Anderson has some extent there: Democrats have struggled for months to fend off Republican assaults about excessive fuel costs, which had been rising since April 2020 — effectively earlier than the conflict in Ukraine. On Wednesday, the typical value of fuel was $4.25 a gallon throughout the US, in line with AAA.
“Excessive fuel costs are usually fairly damaging for shopper sentiment, as a result of they’re so salient, and within the brief run, many individuals can’t actually change the quantity of driving they should do,” stated Carola Binder, an economist at Haverford School in Pennsylvania.
Gasoline costs are intently tied with inflation, which is growing at a tempo not seen in 4 many years.
Meaning it is perhaps tougher for Democrats accountable the conflict in Ukraine for, say, the rising costs of bacon or used automobiles.
The Putin issue
The consensus of many of the pollsters and analysts we spoke with was that providing voters a goal for his or her anger — Putin and his unprovoked conflict in Ukraine — was good politics.
“People have been a bit misplaced as to who accountable for inflation, understanding that a lot of it has been the results of provide chain woes and labor shortages,” stated Pollock, the Democratic marketing consultant.
Putin and Russia get awful approval scores in the US, famous Daniel Cox, a senior fellow in polling and public opinion on the American Enterprise Institute.
And that was earlier than the conflict, which has seized the general public’s consideration with searing reviews of atrocities by Russian forces and a gentle circulate of tales depicting Ukrainians as heroic freedom fighters standing as much as a vicious foe.
As Binder put it, “Reducing off imports of Russian vitality is so morally essential that individuals will really feel a bit higher about paying the upper value on the pump.”
Jonathan Kirshner, a political scientist at Boston College, stated individuals are viscerally affected by what they’re seeing within the information and on social media. “We have now pictures of a conflict with mass struggling and with clear good guys and unhealthy guys,” he stated.
Russia-Ukraine Warfare: Key Issues to Know
A couple of latest public surveys recommend they’re proper:
-
A brand new Wall Road Journal ballot discovered that 79 % of People supported barring imports of Russian oil, even when the ban would elevate vitality costs, with 13 % in opposition to. Intriguingly, 77 % of Republicans additionally backed the oil ban, in contrast with 88 % of Democrats.
-
Quinnipiac College discovered comparable outcomes, with 71 % of People for the ban even when it raised costs, versus 22 % in opposition to. Breaking the outcomes down by occasion, 82 % of Democrats and 66 % of Republicans backed the ban.
-
Morning Seek the advice of’s most up-to-date ballot discovered that 49 % of U.S. voters supported sanctions on Russia’s oil and fuel exports no matter prices, with 28 % in favor of such a ban provided that it didn’t enhance costs.
But we additionally heard a couple of notes of warning. Voters are paying shut consideration to the conflict in Ukraine — for now.
Jason McMann, the pinnacle of geopolitical threat evaluation at Morning Seek the advice of, stated his staff was shocked to see 90 % of voters specific concern concerning the battle. But when the conflict drags on and voters paying larger costs don’t understand that their sacrifice is price it, a number of pollsters stated, the White Home’s Putin price-hike message may backfire.
Republicans will even have their say, and voters will likely be listening to competing messages.
“Gasoline costs started rising sharply greater than a 12 months in the past,” stated Michael McAdams, a spokesman for the marketing campaign arm of Home Republicans. “Voters aren’t going to consider Democrats’ determined try to shift blame for the disastrous outcomes of their conflict on American vitality.”
Mary Snow, a polling analyst at Quinnipiac College, pointed to a Feb. 16 ballot indicating that inflation ranked because the “most pressing problem dealing with the nation” amongst Republicans and independents — once more, effectively earlier than the invasion of Ukraine.
For that purpose, she stated, “blaming Vladimir Putin solely for larger gasoline costs may very well be a tough promote.”
What to learn
-
Republicans who earlier this 12 months have been vocally opposed the US confronting Russia have modified their tune for the reason that invasion of Ukraine, Jonathan Weisman reviews. The New York Occasions continues its reside protection of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
-
Disney’s chief govt publicly opposed the anti-L.G.B.T.Q. laws in Florida that activists have known as the “Don’t Say Homosexual” invoice. Brooks Barnes reviews.
-
Democrats deserted efforts to incorporate a $15.6 billion emergency Covid response bundle in a broader $1.5 trillion spending invoice, Emily Cochrane reviews.
Thanks for studying. We’ll see you tomorrow.
— Blake & Leah
Is there something you assume we’re lacking? Something you need to see extra of? We’d love to listen to from you. E mail us at onpolitics@nytimes.com.
Politics
China promises 'countermeasures' to US arms sale to Taiwan
China’s foreign ministry lashed out at the U.S. and Taiwan on Sunday after the U.S. State Department approved a $385 million arms sale to the island.
Chinese officials also criticized the U.S. for approving Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te to visit Hawaii and Guam, a U.S. territory. China considers Taiwan to be its sovereign territory and routinely objects to any validation of the island’s democratically-elected government.
The arms deal approved late last week sees Taiwan purchasing hundreds of millions of dollars worth of spare parts for F-16 fighter jets as well as components for radars.
Chinese officials said the deal sent the “wrong signal” about relations in the Indo-Pacific. A separate statement said China “strongly condemns” Lai’s travel to the U.S.
CHINA OFFICIALLY ‘DOESN’T CARE’ ABOUT TRUMP WIN; UNOFFICIALLY, EXPERTS SAY BEIJING IS RATTLED
The U.S. has repeatedly signaled its support for Taiwan through military deals, operations and diplomatic interactions with Taiwanese officials.
Recent years have found a cadence of U.S. officials, such as former Speaker Nancy Pelosi, meeting with Taiwanese officials only for Beijing to react with saber-rattling.
Pelosi made a rare trip to the island in 2021, and China reacted by holding live-fire military drills surrounding Taiwan. Those drills occurred again in 2023 when then-Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen met with former Speaker Kevin McCarthy in California.
President-elect Trump has signaled that his administration will continue America’s strong relationship with Taiwan. Trump’s nominees to serve as United Nations ambassador, national security adviser, and most importantly, secretary of state are regarded by many as “China Hawks.”
TRUMP’S PICKS SO FAR: HERE’S WHO WILL BE ADVISING THE NEW PRESIDENT
Trump nominated Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., to be secretary of state last month. Rubio has been a leading voice in the Senate for cracking down on China and imposing sanctions.
Rubio has said he will work with Trump to “continue to support Taiwan.” He is also allied with Trump on insisting Taiwan increase defense spending, a view shared by security experts, but not necessarily the majority of Taiwanese people.
Reuters contributed to this report.
Politics
Newsom tries to redefine the California-vs.-Trump narrative
Nearly two weeks after Gov. Gavin Newsom launched a special session to fund legal battles against the president-elect, the Democratic leader appeared to be trying to tone down and reframe the California-vs.-Trump narrative he set in motion.
“It’s not a resistance brand,” Newsom said in an interview with The Times. “It’s around pragmatism. It’s about preparedness. We would be fools not to get on top of this before January.”
The subtle shift signals the governor may be revising his role as a liberal champion in the nation’s culture wars in the wake of Donald Trump’s defeat of Vice President Kamala Harris.
But as he set out on a “California jobs first” tour to talk about the economy in the Central Valley, Newsom couldn’t resist the gravitational pull back into the fight over progressive values with Trump.
Despite the state budget crunch, he announced Monday that California will offer rebates for those who purchase zero-emission vehicles if Trump follows through with a threat to end federal subsidies for clean cars. Tesla could be excluded from the state rebates under a plan to restrict the credits to manufacturers with lesser market share, a jab at Trump ally and Newsom critic Elon Musk, Tesla’s owner.
The seesaw underscores Newsom’s challenge as he tries to strike a delicate balance between the political brawler that his Democratic base admires and a more measured national leader capable of winning back disenfranchised voters across the country who backed Trump in the election.
“He’s caught between this old way of being the tip of the spear and just being pure resistance and now considering a presidential run,” said Mike Madrid, a Republican political consultant.
Madrid said Newsom isn’t alone. The governor’s shuffle, in Madrid’s view, personifies a reckoning happening within a Democratic Party focused on identity politics in 2024 without realizing that Trump was winning over voters on economic issues.
“Gavin Newsom has led the Democratic Party into a place where they can win these cultural battles, but that’s not what this election was about,” Madrid said. “The battle is about affordability, and California’s got a huge weakness there.”
The presidential election showcased the Republican strategy of typecasting California and the Democratic Party as left of most of the country. California leaders are preparing to defend against mass deportations, a reversal of LGBTQ+ rights and efforts to weaken climate change policies when Trump takes office.
Embracing electric vehicles is another Democratic litmus test that runs afoul of Trump’s agenda. Newsom has led the way with a mandate to transition all new car sales in California to zero-emission vehicles by 2035. New state subsidies, he argued, seek to protect the electric vehicle market and industry jobs based here.
To his Republican foes in California, the proposed electric vehicle credits are another example of the liberal governor being “out of touch.”
Nationwide only about 3 in 10 Americans would consider buying an electric vehicle, according to a recent study by the Pew Research Center. In the Golden State, electric vehicles account for about 25% of all new car sales — a rise that Newsom touts but which shows most Californians aren’t yet making the switch.
“The reality for most working people is they need their gas-powered vehicle, they can’t afford an electric vehicle, nor do they want one,” said Assembly Republican Leader James Gallagher (R-Yuba City). “When you’re talking about greater tax credits for Hollywood and money for people who want to buy EVs, you’ve missed the memo, bud.”
David McCuan, a professor of political science at Sonoma State University, said subsidies for electric vehicles are a “limousine liberal” issue that wealthy college-educated voters care about, while the working-class voters the party is losing are more worried about the cost of gasoline and the rent.
“Wokeism gives him a platform, but wokeism also exposes his political weaknesses,” McCuan said. “The culture war issues that provide his exposure also are somewhat of an Achilles’ heel for delivering the vote.”
If Newsom has aspirations for the White House, the governor needs to demonstrate more discipline than “knee-jerk” reactions to Trump that draw headlines across the country, and he should craft an inclusive message about the way forward, McCuan said.
“He needs to be front and center in voters’ minds and when they cast their ballot, and that’s the political maturity test that I think he has yet to meet,” McCuan said.
As lawmakers prepare to return to the state Capitol to begin the special session Monday, Newsom and legislative leaders have repeated the message that they’re ready to work with the incoming president. The special session seeks to increase legal funding for the California Department of Justice to protect abortion access, climate change policies, LGBTQ+ rights and disaster funding to make sure California isn’t caught off guard if Trump carries out his agenda as expected, they said.
“It goes without saying if there are opportunities to be able to work together with the new administration that benefit California, of course, we’re all in,” state Senate President Pro Tem Mike McGuire (D-Healdsburg) said. “But let’s be clear, if the president-elect tries to undermine our state, undermine our freedoms or our democracy, he’s going to quickly see how determined the people of California truly are.”
Assembly Speaker Robert Rivas (D-Hollister) said he told his caucus a few days after the election that this isn’t 2016, when legislators introduced a flurry of bills to “Trump-proof” California, because so much of that work is already done. Lawmakers, he said, should focus on helping California residents who stand to lose under the incoming president.
The message voters sent in the election also provides an opportunity for his caucus to advance its priorities around housing affordability and making families feel as though future generations will be able to afford to live here.
“For me as a member of the Assembly and as speaker of the Assembly, I obviously feel a great sense of responsibility because it falls to us to ensure that we’re making progress on these issues, and we just clearly have not convinced residents that we’re doing that,” Rivas said.
Madrid said it’s common for any party to reassess after losing an election. But more tests await Newsom and Democrats on immigration and other issues after Trump is inaugurated.
Their attempts to restrain themselves in the national fight and focus on the cost of living could be out the window by mid-January, he said.
“The chances of the affordability problem being resolved is very minimal because the problem, essentially, is about housing, and that’s not something you solve overnight,” Madrid said. “It’s something that we have neglected for decades and particularly in this administration.”
Staff writer Jaweed Kaleem contributed to this report.
Politics
Kash Patel's nomination sparks enthusiasm, anxiety; future of the FBI appears uncertain
President-elect Trump’s nomination of Kash Patel as FBI director evoked strong reactions from supporters and critics Saturday night.
Patel’s nomination hints at massive changes the agency will likely undergo during the second Trump administration. As a staunch supporter of Trump, Patel is a fierce critic of government corruption and the so-called “deep state” and has blasted the bureau in the past.
In a September interview with “The Shawn Ryan Show,” Patel said the FBI’s footprint “has gotten so frickin’ big.”
“I would shut down the FBI Hoover Building on day one and reopen the next day as a museum of the deep state,” Patel said.
TRUMP NOMINATES KASH PATEL TO SERVE AS FBI DIRECTOR: ‘ADVOCATE FOR TRUTH’
Trump has not historically been a fan of the FBI, which raided his Florida estate in 2022 and years earlier investigated false claims he was a Russian asset. Most observers expect Trump will demand an agency overhaul by his director.
“Kash is a brilliant lawyer, investigator, and ‘America First’ fighter who has spent his career exposing corruption, defending Justice, and protecting the American People,” Trump said in a statement. “He played a pivotal role in uncovering the Russia, Russia, Russia Hoax, standing as an advocate for truth, accountability, and the Constitution.”
Patel’s nomination was met with instant praise from Republicans. Rep. Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., Trump’s pick for U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, called Patel an “America First fighter.” Rep. Byron Donalds, R-Fla., also praised the pick.
“Great choice by @realDonaldTrump,” Donalds wrote on X. “Kash is a patriot and 100% America First.”
Rep. Ronny Jackson, R-Texas, also issued his congratulations.
NEW YORK JUDGE GRANTS TRUMP REQUEST TO FILE MOTION TO DISMISS CHARGES, CANCELS SENTENCING INDEFINITELY
“Kash was INSTRUMENTAL in President Trump’s first term and will be EVEN GREATER in his second!” the former White House physician wrote. “Time to clean this place up, and Kash is the man to do it!!! MAGA!”
Commentators on the left, however, panned the pick. MSNBC’s Morning Joe previously called Patel the “personification of MAGA rage about the Justice Department and the FBI.”
On Saturday night, far-left commentator Mehdi Hasan accused Patel of being a “deeply strange and alarming and sycophantic figure.” Andrew McCabe, who briefly served as acting FBI director under Trump in 2017 before being fired for allegedly leaking to the media and a “lack of candor,” called Patel’s nomination “a plan to disrupt, to dismantle, to distract the FBI.”
“It’s a terrible development for the men and women of the FBI and also for the nation that depends on a highly functioning, professional, independent Federal Bureau of Investigation,” McCabe said on CNN. “The fact that Kash Patel is profoundly unqualified for this job is not even, like, a matter for debate.”
TRUMP NOMINATES CHARLES KUSHNER TO SERVE AS US AMBASSADOR TO FRANCE: ‘STRONG ADVOCATE’
Tom Nichols, a staff writer for The Atlantic, told MSNBC Patel is “as dangerous as it gets.”
“I suppose if we still have the ability to be shocked, it’s shocking,” Nichols said. “But I think this is something … many of us saw it coming and, you know, shouldn’t be that surprising. But it’s an incredibly dangerous development.”
Two conditions will need to be met for Patel to take office. Current FBI Director Christopher Wray will either need to resign or be fired, and Patel will need to be confirmed by the U.S. Senate.
Wray has not signaled an intent to resign. On Saturday night, the FBI told Fox News Digital Wray is focused on his work at hand.
“Every day, the men and women of the FBI continue to work to protect Americans from a growing array of threats,” an FBI spokesperson said. “Director Wray’s focus remains on the men and women of the FBI, the people we do the work with and the people we do the work for.”
Fox News Digital’s Peter Pinedo contributed to this report.
-
Science5 days ago
Despite warnings from bird flu experts, it's business as usual in California dairy country
-
Health1 week ago
Holiday gatherings can lead to stress eating: Try these 5 tips to control it
-
Health6 days ago
CheekyMD Offers Needle-Free GLP-1s | Woman's World
-
Technology5 days ago
Lost access? Here’s how to reclaim your Facebook account
-
Entertainment4 days ago
Review: A tense household becomes a metaphor for Iran's divisions in 'The Seed of the Sacred Fig'
-
Technology3 days ago
US agriculture industry tests artificial intelligence: 'A lot of potential'
-
Technology1 week ago
Microsoft pauses Windows 11 updates for PCs with some Ubisoft games installed
-
Sports1 day ago
One Black Friday 2024 free-agent deal for every MLB team