Politics
Can Republicans Win by Just Saying No?
Within the 1946 midterms, Republicans united round a easy however highly effective mantra: “Had sufficient?”
The slogan was the brainchild of Karl Frost, an promoting govt in Boston. In two quick phrases, it promised a rejection of each New Deal liberalism and the monopoly of energy Democrats had held in Washington for the reason that Thirties.
It helped Republicans that the economic system was in chaos. World Conflict II had simply ended, and provide chains have been going haywire because the U.S. emerged from wartime worth controls. Hundreds of employees went on strike. Meat was scarce and costly — a lot in order that Republican candidates patrolled metropolis streets in vans booming out the message, “Girls, if you’d like meat, vote Republican.” They slapped President Harry Truman with the moniker “Horsemeat Harry.”
“That is going to be a damned beefsteak election!” Sam Rayburn, the Democratic speaker of the Home, privately fumed. By Election Day, Truman’s approval ranking was simply 33 p.c. Republicans picked up 55 seats within the Home and 12 within the Senate, taking energy for the primary time since 1932.
“It was so dangerous for Truman that folks have been saying he ought to resign,” stated Jeffrey Frank, writer of “The Trials of Harry S. Truman.”
This was the 12 months {that a} younger Richard Nixon gained his first congressional election, defeating a five-term Democratic incumbent in suburban Los Angeles by working towards New Deal “socialism” and for what he referred to as the “forgotten man.” His marketing campaign literature requested: “Are you happy with current circumstances? Can you purchase meat, a brand new automobile, a fridge, garments you want?”
What’s outdated is new once more.
Inflation is approach up, some items are exhausting to search out and Democrats are looking at an identical wipeout in November. And Republicans, as our colleague Jonathan Weisman stories immediately, are debating simply how forthcoming to be about their very own plans. Senator Rick Scott, the top of the Republican Senate marketing campaign arm, has an 11-point plan to “rescue America.” Home Republicans are engaged on their “Dedication to America,” a political and coverage agenda they plan to launch in late summer season. And immediately, Mike Pence, the previous vice chairman, unveiled a 28-page “Freedom Agenda” platform.
Some Republicans argue that none of it’s actually essential. All they should do to win again energy is level to voters’ frustrations with the excessive costs of gasoline and groceries and say, basically: Had sufficient?
“This isn’t rocket science,” stated Corry Bliss, a Republican strategist. “The midterms are a referendum on one factor and one factor solely: Joe Biden and the Democrats’ failed management. Interval. Finish of debate.”
‘What’s Mitch for?’
Democrats are keen to show this fall’s elections right into a selection between the 2 events slightly than a referendum on their very own efficiency.
At occasions, President Biden has tried to corral Mitch McConnell, the Senate’s high Republican, into defining the occasion’s agenda. “The elemental query is, what’s Mitch for? What’s he for on immigration? What’s he for? What’s he proposing?” Biden stated in late January, including: “What are they for? So all the things’s a selection. A selection.”
A Information to the 2022 Midterm Elections
McConnell by no means took the bait. He’s stated his focus is “one hundred pc” on “stopping this new administration” and has prevented presenting concepts that Democrats may be capable to assault.
“The basics of a midterm election maintain: It’s concerning the occasion in energy,” stated Zack Roday, a Republican strategist who’s engaged on a number of Senate campaigns. “McConnell understands this higher than anybody of the final 15 years.”
So Democrats have taken to Scott’s plan like a drowning man to a life preserver, highlighting his name for each American to have “pores and skin within the sport” by paying taxes and accusing him of wanting to chop Medicare and Social Safety. Senate Democrats are working a paid advert on Scott’s plan this week in key swing states, and on Thursday they purchased a geo-targeted advert across the Heritage Basis in Washington, throughout a speech that Scott gave on the conservative assume tank.
It’s an article of religion amongst many on the proper that the 1994 “Contract With America” led by Newt Gingrich was chargeable for that 12 months’s Republican takeover of Congress. However Republicans within the Senate, led by Bob Dole of Kansas, by no means embraced it, whereas polls on the time confirmed that solely a minority of voters had ever heard of the concept. Democrats would later exploit Gingrich’s unpopularity to achieve seats within the 1998 midterms, a uncommon victory for the president’s occasion.
Consultant Kevin McCarthy of California, who hopes to develop into speaker of the Home, shares Scott’s view {that a} plan is important, although they might differ on the main points. On the current coverage retreat for Home Republicans, McCarthy defined his hope of presenting Biden with laws “so sturdy it might overcome all of the politics that different individuals play.”
To which Consultant Jim Jordan of Ohio, a key McCarthy ally, added: “I believe it’s actual easy: You possibly can’t do what you stated in case you haven’t stated what you’ll do.”
‘Simply criticize slightly than be particular’
As a political technique, although, no plan most likely beats a plan.
“If I have been the Republicans, I’d simply criticize slightly than be particular about my cures, sadly,” stated Geoffrey Kabaservice, a historian of the Republican Social gathering.
Michael Barone, the founding editor of the Almanac of American Politics, stated he anticipated Republicans to win again the Home and “most likely” the Senate, no matter how particular their plans have been. A coverage agenda, he stated, is extra vital for figuring out “the way you wish to govern” as soon as in energy.
For Republican leaders immediately, being in energy poses a dilemma of its personal. In the event that they do win one or each branches of Congress, Democrats will be capable to draw on a playbook made well-known by the identical president who was so humbled by the slogan “Had sufficient?” in 1946.
Two years after his midterm drubbing, Truman mounted a comeback usually hailed as the best in American political historical past, utilizing the “do-nothing Congress” as his political foil.
By no means thoughts that Congress had been terribly productive, passing greater than 900 payments that included landmark laws such because the Marshall Plan and the Taft-Hartley Act. 4 months earlier than Election Day, together with his job approval ranking caught within the 30s, Truman went on offense.
“He had only one technique — assault, assault, assault,” writes David McCullough, one other Truman biographer.
At marketing campaign stops, Truman referred to as Republicans names like “bloodsuckers” and a “bunch of outdated mossbacks nonetheless residing again in 1890.” At one look in Roseville, Calif., he stated the “do-nothing Congress tried to choke you to loss of life on this valley.” In Fresno, Calif., he stated: “You’ve got a horrible congressman right here on this district. He is without doubt one of the worst.” And in Iowa, he stated the Republican Congress had “caught a pitchfork within the farmer’s again.”
The remainder, as they are saying, is historical past.
What to learn tonight
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Biden introduced he would faucet the Strategic Petroleum Reserve as soon as once more, Clifford Krauss and Michael D. Shear report, in a transfer meant to decrease gasoline costs for American shoppers.
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A federal choose in Florida stated that sections of the state’s election legislation have been unconstitutional, the primary federal court docket ruling hanging down key elements of a serious Republican voting legislation for the reason that 2020 election, Reid J. Epstein and Patricia Mazzei report.
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Based on Alan Feuer, Katie Benner and Maggie Haberman, the Justice Division has widened its investigation into the Jan. 6 assault on the Capitol to embody attainable involvement of different authorities officers.
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Senator Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina, introduced he would vote towards the affirmation of Decide Ketanji Brown Jackson to the Supreme Courtroom, Annie Karni stories.
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Some voters in North Carolina assume Consultant Madison Cawthorn has lastly gone too far, Journey Gabriel stories from Cawthorn’s district.
Framework
Democrats’ two paths
There’s numerous doom and gloom throughout America, one thing Republican campaigns have leveraged to attempt to persuade voters to alter the established order and oust Democrats from Congress.
It leaves Democrats with a troublesome determination: empathize with voters’ hardships or put ahead a distinct narrative solely?
In Connecticut, Gov. Ned Lamont, a Democrat who’s up for re-election this 12 months, appears to be taking the second method. In his first advert of the cycle, he paints a sunny image, smiling as he strolls by way of suburban neighborhoods and talks with constituents. He boasts that he turned the state’s deficit right into a surplus, whereas decreasing taxes and investing in faculties.
“A balanced funds, decrease taxes — our state is robust and getting stronger,” Lamont declares to the digital camera.
It’s a pointy departure from a Democratic advert we highlighted final month from Senator Raphael Warnock of Georgia, through which the solar was noticeably absent. Or from one other Democratic advert that Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona started working in late February that acknowledged “households are working exhausting to get by proper now.”
Governors might need a little bit extra room to focus on state and native achievements than members of Congress. Nonetheless, by making an attempt to show that they’ve improved circumstances for the reason that coronavirus pandemic started, Democrats might run the danger of seeming out of contact with their constituents’ day-to-day struggles.
Thanks for studying. We’ll see you tomorrow.
— Blake & Leah
Is there something you assume we’re lacking? Something you wish to see extra of? We’d love to listen to from you. E mail us at onpolitics@nytimes.com.
Politics
Political betting markets still have plenty of action despite end of election season
The end of the election season does not mean the end of political betting, with many platforms allowing users to place wagers on everything from the 2028 election to who will be confirmed to President-elect Donald Trump’s Cabinet.
“Some people will be amazed by this, but people are already betting on 2026 and 2028,” Maxim Lott, the founder of ElectionBettingOdds.com, told Fox News Digital. “There’s been about a quarter million dollars bet already.”
The comments come after the 2024 election produced plenty of betting action, with users across multiple platforms wagering over $2 billion on the outcome of the latest race.
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While mega sporting events, such as the Super Bowl and the recent Mike Tyson vs. Jake Paul fight, gives gamblers plenty to wager on after the election, those looking for something political to bet on will still have plenty of options.
One of the most popular topics is who will be the nominees for both major parties in 2028, with ElectionBettingOdds.com showing California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Vice President-elect JD Vance being the current leaders for Democrats and Republicans, respectively.
Other names with a significant amount of attention for betters include Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer for the Democratic nomination, while Vance is trailed by names like entrepreneur and future head of the new Department of Government Efficiency Vivek Ramaswamy and Donald Trump Jr. on the Republican side.
“The big Democratic governors are favored to be the next nominee,” Lott said, noting that Vance currently holds a sizable lead over other options on the GOP side.
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Vance is also the current betting leader on who will win the 2028 presidential election, ElectionBettingOdds.com shows, followed by Newson and Shapiro as the next two likely options.
However, Lott warned it is still too early to tell what the future holds, noting that the markets will start to provide more clarity as more information becomes known over the next few years.
“As the future becomes clearer… as we get closer to 2026, 2028, these odds will change,” Lott said. “So if the Trump administration is doing really well, the economy is booming, inflation is not out of control, wars are ending, Vance’s odds will certainly go up.”
Bettors also are not limited to wagering on elections, with platforms such as Polymarket allowing users to place bets on Trump’s picks to serve in his Cabinet and whether they will be confirmed. Bettors can also place wagers on questions such as if they believe the war in Ukraine will end in Trump’s first 90 days or if there will be a cease-fire in Gaza in 2024.
According to Lott, taking a look at the current betting odds for many scenarios can help inform you about what is going on in the world, even if you do not place bets yourself.
“People often ask… is there any value to this… it’s just gambling. It’s silly,” Lott said. “But actually it’s very useful… if you want to know what’s going to happen in 2028 or if the Trump administration is going to be a success, you could read 100 news articles on it. Some will misinform you. Or, you can just go to the prediction markets and see… is Vance a 20% chance of becoming the next Republican nominee or is he a 90% chance? That tells you a lot.”
Politics
As Trump’s lead in popular vote shrinks, does he really have a 'mandate'?
In his victory speech on Nov. 6, President-elect Donald Trump claimed Americans had given him an “unprecedented and powerful mandate.”
It’s a message his transition team has echoed in the last three weeks, referring to his “MAGA Mandate” and a “historic mandate for his agenda.”
But given that Trump’s lead in the popular vote has dwindled as more votes have been counted in California and other states that lean blue, there is fierce disagreement over whether most Americans really endorse his plans to overhaul government and implement sweeping change.
The latest tally from the Cook Political Report shows Trump winning 49.83% of the popular vote, with a margin of 1.55% over Vice President Kamala Harris.
If there ever was a mandate, this isn’t it.
— Hans Noel, Georgetown University
The president-elect’s share of the popular vote now falls in the bottom half for American presidents — far below that of Democrat Lyndon B. Johnson, who won 61.1% of the popular vote in 1964, defeating Republican Sen. Barry Goldwater by nearly 23 percentage points.
In the last 75 years, only three presidents — John F. Kennedy in 1960, Richard Nixon in 1968 and George W. Bush in 2000 — had popular-vote margins smaller than Trump’s current lead.
“If there ever was a mandate, this isn’t it,” said Hans Noel, associate professor of government at Georgetown University.
Trump’s commanding electoral college victory of 312 votes to Harris’ 226 is clear. And unlike in 2016, when he beat former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, he won the popular vote and the needed support in the electoral college.
The question is whether Trump can garner significant public support to push through his more contentious administration picks and the most radical elements of his policy agenda, such as bringing in the military to enforce mass deportations.
Democrats say that the results fall short of demonstrating majority public support for Trump and that the numbers do not give him a mandate to deviate from precedent, such as naming Cabinet members without Senate confirmation.
“There’s no mandate here,” Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.) said last week on CNN, noting Trump had suggested using “recess appointments” to get around Senate hearings and votes for his nominees. “What there certainly should not be is a blank check to appoint a chaos Cabinet.”
GOP strategist Lanhee Chen, a fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution who ran for California controller in 2022, rejects such framing by Democrats. He argues that Trump’s victory was “quite resounding,” in large part because it defied expectations.
In an election that almost all political pundits expected would be close and protracted, he reversed Democrats’ 2020 gains, won all seven battleground states and even made inroads with voters in blue states such as California. Republicans also will take control of the Senate and retain their control of the House.
“Look, if the popular vote ends up having him at 49.6% versus 50.1%, do I think it’s a meaningful difference?” Chen said. “No, I don’t.”
Scholars of American politics have long been skeptical of the idea of a presidential mandate.
The first president to articulate such a concept was Andrew Jackson, the nation’s seventh president, who viewed his 1832 reelection — in which he won 54.2% of the popular vote — as a mandate to destroy the Second Bank of the United States and expand his political authority. In arguing he had the mandate of the people, Jackson deviated from the approach of previous presidents in refusing to defer to Congress on policy.
In “Myth of the Presidential Mandate,” Robert A. Dahl, a professor of political science at Yale University, argued the presidential mandate was “harmful to American public life” because it “elevates the president to an exalted position in our constitutional system at the expense of Congress.”
Even if we accept the premise of a mandate, there is little consensus on when a candidate has achieved it.
“How do we know what voters were thinking as they cast ballots?” Julia R. Azari, an assistant professor of political science at Marquette University, wrote in a recent essay. “Are some elections mandates and others not? If so, how do we know? What’s the popular vote cutoff — is it a majority or more? Who decides?”
In “Delivering the People’s Message: The Changing Politics of the Presidential Mandate,” she argues that it’s politicians in weak positions who typically invoke mandates. This century, she wrote, presidents have cited mandates with increasing frequency as a result of the declining status of the presidency and growing national polarization.
That’s particularly true of Trump, who has long reveled in hyperbole.
In 2016, he bragged that he’d won in a “massive landslide victory,” even though his electoral college win of 304 to Clinton’s 227 was not particularly dramatic by historic standards and he lost the popular vote by 2 percentage points.
Four years later, he refused to accept he lost the electoral college and the popular vote to Joe Biden, falsely claiming he was the victim of voter fraud.
When Trump speaks of his supposed mandate, he is not an outlier, but is drawing from bipartisan history.
In the last four decades, no president has won the popular vote by double digits, but politicians including George W. Bush and Barack Obama have increasingly tried to justify their agendas by invoking public support.
When Democrat Bill Clinton defeated Republican President George H.W. Bush and Ross Perot, an independent, in 1992, his failure to win a majority of votes did not stop his running mate, Al Gore, from declaring they had a “mandate for change.” Five days after Clinton was inaugurated, he announced he was creating a task force to devise a sweeping plan to provide universal healthcare.
“In my lifetime, at least,” Clinton told reporters, “there has never been so much consensus that something has to be done.” The effort ultimately failed for lack of political support.
The fake news is trying to minimize President Trump’s massive and historic victory to try to delegitimize his mandate.
— Karoline Leavitt, incoming White House press secretary
Four years ago, Biden also declared a “mandate for action.”
And while Biden prevailed in the electoral college 306 to 232, his share of the popular vote was 51.3%, hardly a dominant performance.
As mainstream news outlets have reported on Trump’s shrinking popular margin, Karoline Leavitt, Trump’s incoming White House press secretary, has lashed out at the media.
“New Fake News Narrative Alert!” Leavitt posted on X, adding a red warning light emoji. “The fake news is trying to minimize President Trump’s massive and historic victory to try to delegitimize his mandate.”
Trump’s victory is not by any objective measure “massive or historic.” But Republicans say that news outlets have subjected him to a different standard than they apply to Democratic presidents.
After Clinton won in 1992 after 12 years of GOP presidents, some Republicans note, Time magazine put his face on its cover with the headline “Mandate for Change.”
Clinton won just 43% of the popular vote, one of the lowest shares in U.S. history.
Presidents sometimes bolster their claims of a mandate by cherry-picking polling results.
On Sunday, Trump’s transition team highlighted new polling from CBS News, claiming it showed “overwhelming support” for his “transition and agenda.”
But even though the poll indicated that 59% of Americans approved of Trump’s handling of the presidential transition, it did not show overwhelming or even majority support for many parts of his agenda.
For example, while Trump won strong backing for his broad immigration plan, with 57% supporting a “national program to find and deport all immigrants who are in the U.S. illegally,” the poll showed far less support — 40% — for his plan to use the military to carry out deportations.
Whatever the popular vote, the Hoover Institution’s Chen argues, Trump is in a strong position because he can count on GOP majorities in both houses of Congress.
“He’s going to be able to do, from a legislative perspective, largely what he wants to do,” Chen said.
But several GOP senators have already emphasized the importance of requiring FBI background checks for Trump’s more contentious nominees.
It also appears he lacks public support for pushing through his picks without Senate approval. More than three-quarters of respondents, according to the CBS poll, believe the Senate should vote on Trump’s appointments.
Noel, the Georgetown professor, said that Trump’s rhetorical strategy aside, the president-elect might have to move past the “‘I won, so everybody get out of my way’ kind of politics” and work behind the scenes to seek common ground with moderate Republicans and maybe even some Democrats.
“In the past, people have made strong claims about mandates, but then they’ve coupled that with more cautious policymaking,” Noel said. “If Trump doesn’t do that — if he acts like he believes his own story — then we’re in a different, more Trumpian kind of place.”
Politics
Texas could bus migrants directly to ICE for deportation instead of sanctuary cities under proposed plan
Texas could implement a plan to bus migrants directly to U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in an effort to get them processed for deportation, according to media reports.
The move would be a departure from the state’s program, part of Operation Lone Star, that has bussed thousands of migrants to sanctuary cities, a source told the New York Post. It has yet to be approved by Gov. Greg Abbott.
Fox News Digital has reached out to Abbott’s office and ICE.
“We are always going to be involved in border security so long as we’re a border state,” a Texas government source told the newspaper. “We spent a lot of taxpayer money to have the level of deterrent that we have on the border, and we can’t just walk away.”
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Abbott has been especially aggressive in combating illegal immigration, bussing migrants to blue cities in an effort to bring attention to the border crisis. Under the proposed plan, buses chartered by Texas from border cities will be taken to federal detention centers to help ICE agents process migrants quickly, the Post reported.
Texas has been in a legal fight with the Biden administration over its efforts to curb illegal immigration. On Wednesday, an appeals court ruled that the state has the right to build a razor wire border wall to deter migrants.
Officials have also offered land to the incoming Trump administration to build deportation centers to hold illegal immigrant criminals.
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“My office has identified several of our properties and is standing by ready to make this happen on Day One of the Trump presidency,” Texas Land Commissioner Dawn Buckingham said during a visit to the border Tuesday.
Authorities have also warned of unaccompanied migrant children being caught near the border. On Thursday, a 10-year-old boy from El Salvador told state troopers in Maverick County, Texas, that he had been lost and left behind by a human smuggler.
The boy was holding a cellphone and crying, Texas Department of Public Safety Lt. Chris Olivarez posted on X. The child said his parents were in the U.S.
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On Sunday, troopers encountered an unaccompanied 2-year-old girl from El Salvador holding a piece of paper with a phone number and her name. She told authorities that her parents were also in the U.S.
That morning, state troopers also encountered a group of 211 illegal immigrants in Maverick County. Among the group were 60 unaccompanied children, ages 2 to 17, and six special interest immigrants from Mali and Angola.
“Regardless of political views, it is unacceptable for any child to be exposed to dangerous criminal trafficking networks,” Olivarez wrote at the time. “With a record number of unaccompanied children and hundreds of thousands missing, there is no one ensuring the safety & security of these children except for the men & women who are on the frontlines daily.”
He noted that the “reality is that many children are exploited & trafficked, never to be heard from again.”
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