Connect with us

News

Can US natural gas relieve Europe from Russian supply dependency?

Published

on

Can US natural gas relieve Europe from Russian supply dependency?

The US and EU final week introduced a breakthrough deal to wean Europe off Russian pure fuel. The “groundbreaking” pact, mentioned Joe Biden, would strip Vladimir Putin of the flexibility to “coerce and manipulate” the continent’s vitality shoppers.

The “joint recreation plan” includes three steps. First, the US will assist the EU safe short-term liquefied pure fuel provides to start displacing Russian fuel. Second, Europe will work “towards the purpose of guaranteeing” an even bigger marketplace for US fuel by 2030. Third, the US would assist Europe speed up its transition to wash vitality, ultimately decreasing its fuel demand.

How way more fuel has the US supplied?

The US mentioned it will attempt so as to add 15bn cubic metres of liquefied pure fuel to the EU this 12 months, with extra in years to return. It didn’t specify the origins of the fuel, noting it will “work with worldwide companions”.

By comparability, Russia at present exports 155bn cubic metres a 12 months of fuel to the EU.

The baseline for the pledged 15bn just isn’t clear. However the US shipped about 22bn cubic metres of fuel to Europe in 2021 and has already despatched 10bn within the first quarter of this 12 months, based on Refinitiv. All of it’s within the type of LNG, fuel that has been condensed so it may be carried on a ship.

Advertisement

Some further US provides will come from a just lately opened export venture in Louisiana, the Calcasieu Move plant. However these volumes have been already anticipated out there, and crops elsewhere alongside the shoreline are working at most capability.

So for now, any further LNG should be coaxed to Europe through greater costs, diverting ships initially sure elsewhere. That would show painful for shoppers.

“Any incremental LNG cargoes despatched from the US to Europe are extra probably a redirection of current US LNG cargoes — and therefore will do little when it comes to materials ‘worth aid’,” mentioned Financial institution of America.

How can the US get different LNG provides to Europe?

Most US LNG contracts are usually not essentially restricted to a specific vacation spot. So if costs stay excessive sufficient in Europe, shippers might preserve redirecting cargoes there.

And if the EU succeeds in changing the roughly 15bn cubic metres of LNG that it at present imports from Russia — a a lot smaller quantity than is imported by way of pipelines — these seaborne Russian cargoes may in flip circulation to different locations.

Advertisement

“A giant reshuffling is about to occur,” mentioned one business government, referring to this risk.

That is a part of the Biden plan. Jake Sullivan, the president’s nationwide safety adviser, mentioned the administration would depend on a “cargo diversion technique”.

However business phrases nonetheless make this plan difficult.

“I feel within the shorter time period, it’s going to be pretty powerful,” mentioned Inosi Nyatta, a associate at legislation agency Sullivan & Cromwell. “Possibly they’ll have some kind of incentive regime the place they incentivise the sellers to renegotiate.”

The US tack thus far has been to lean on governments — in huge importing international locations corresponding to Japan or South Korea, but additionally in Qatar, which sits with the US and Australia within the prime tier of LNG exporters. Releasing up but extra cargoes will “contain plenty of diplomacy”, mentioned a senior administration official.

Advertisement

Does Europe have infrastructure to obtain extra seaborne fuel?

Sure, however not in the fitting place. Jap Europe and Germany are most depending on Russian fuel. However a lot of the obtainable LNG regasification infrastructure is in southern Europe.

Germany has proposed constructing new terminals to obtain LNG, or renting regasification vessels that may float offshore. Both means, the shift from pipeline dependency to LNG dependency might be costly and take time.

Traders in pricey new import terminals — whether or not taxpayers or capital markets — will want assurances {that a} transition to cleaner vitality gained’t merely render these fossil gasoline property nugatory in a decade’s time.

Does the LNG pact compromise US local weather commitments?

The White Home’s promotion of LNG has been welcomed by American fossil gasoline producers, which even earlier than Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have been touting these exports as a “inexperienced initiative” that may permit Asian importers to burn pure fuel as a substitute of coal to make electrical energy.

It is usually an enormous shift for the EU, which was rising extra hostile to fuel even earlier than the invasion.

Advertisement

“It is a U-turn from earlier EU buying selections as many patrons had stopped negotiating with US builders for LNG as a consequence of ESG [environmental, social and governance] considerations,” mentioned Sindre Knutsson at Rystad Vitality, a consultancy.

Environmentalists have been scathing. “Permitting for the growth of latest and expanded fuel export services would lock in many years of reliance on dangerous, risky fossil fuels and spell catastrophe for our local weather,” mentioned Kelly Sheehan on the Sierra Membership.

What concerning the longer run?

Biden and Ursula von der Leyen, European Fee president, additionally mentioned an even bigger plan for the US to ship 50bn cubic metres a 12 months of extra LNG to Europe by 2030.

That is possible on paper. In line with the funding financial institution Cowen, the US authorities has authorized a dozen export tasks with a complete capability of 206bn cubic metres a 12 months — about twice present US capability.

However LNG crops price billions of {dollars} and take years to construct, and nobody expects all 12 of the tasks to go forward. Builders and their monetary backers usually need contracts with purchasers — some lasting 20 years or extra — earlier than they begin ploughing money into tasks.

Advertisement

Twice weekly publication

Vitality is the world’s indispensable enterprise and Vitality Source is its publication. Each Tuesday and Thursday, direct to your inbox, Vitality Source brings you important information, forward-thinking evaluation and insider intelligence. Enroll right here.

In its assertion with the White Home, the European Fee mentioned it will work “towards the purpose of guaranteeing” demand for 50bn cubic metres of US fuel — an obvious concession to the LNG business’s anxieties about future demand.

On the similar time, US officers have been clear that the longer-term intention was nonetheless to cease utilizing fossil fuels, together with LNG.

Advertisement

“The true path to vitality safety runs by way of clear vitality,” mentioned a senior administration official. “The primary half is getting Europe off Russian fuel. The second half is getting Europe off fuel altogether.”

Further reporting by Amanda Chu in Washington

Continue Reading
Advertisement
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

News

Boeing to cut 17,000 jobs and delay 777X jet as revenues fall short

Published

on

Boeing to cut 17,000 jobs and delay 777X jet as revenues fall short

Unlock the Editor’s Digest for free

Boeing will cut about 17,000 jobs and delay the first delivery of its 777X jet as the plane maker confronts deepening losses and the effects of a weekslong strike by its largest labour union.

Chief executive Kelly Ortberg announced the cuts, equivalent to 10 per cent of its workforce, in a message to staff on Friday. “Our business is in a difficult position, and it is hard to overstate the challenges we face together,” he said.

Financial troubles have escalated at Boeing since the start of the year, when a door panel blew off one of its 737 Max jets on a passenger flight. Regulators demanded a slowdown in manufacturing to fix quality problems, which reduced the amount of cash flowing into the company.

Advertisement

Last month, 33,000 workers walked out of Boeing plants in Washington state after members of the machinists’ union overwhelmingly rejected a new contract. The work stoppage halted production of the company’s 767 and 777 planes, further cutting revenue, putting strain on its suppliers and customers.

The debt rating agency S&P this week warned of a possible downgrade of Boeing’s bonds to junk status. Analysts expect the company to look to raise at least $10bn in new equity to shore up its financial position.

In a separate statement after the market closed on Friday, Boeing warned investors that its third-quarter results, which are due on October 23, would “recognise impacts” related to the strike as well as charges in both its commercial and defence divisions.

The company said it had $10.5bn in cash and marketable securities at the end of September after burning through $1.3bn in cash during the quarter. Losses for the period totalled nearly $10 per share, in part reflecting pre-tax charges of $5bn in the quarter, including $3bn on the 777X and 767 commercial plane programmes and $2bn for its defence, space and security business.

Boeing said revenues for the quarter would come in at $17.8bn, a figure that would fall short of analysts’ expectations by about 3 per cent.

Advertisement

Ortberg, a former CEO of avionics manufacturer Rockwell Collins, was appointed in late July to replace Dave Calhoun. He arrived soon after Boeing had pleaded guilty to misleading US regulators about a flight control system that caused two fatal crashes of the 737 Max in 2018 and 2019.

Boeing continues to face federal investigations over the 737 Max accident on an Alaska Airlines flight in January, which killed no passengers but led to new questions about quality control inside the company.

The machinists strike came after union members turned down a 30 per cent pay increase offered by the company. In an attempt to conserve cash, Boeing had begun stopping purchase orders with suppliers, freezing new hiring and furloughing tens of thousands of employees.

Ortberg said that, because of the planned job cuts, the company would not proceed with the next round of furloughs. The International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers union did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Boeing needed “to reset our workforce levels to align with our financial reality and to a more focused set of priorities”, he said, adding that the cuts would include executives, managers and employees. Boeing had 171,000 employees at the end of 2023.

Advertisement

Ortberg announced that first delivery of Boeing’s 777X jet — which was first due to enter commercial service in 2020 — would be delayed again, from 2025 to 2026.

Boeing shares were down about 1.7 per cent in after-hours trading.

Continue Reading

News

How one woman is seeking atonement this year during Yom Kippur

Published

on

How one woman is seeking atonement this year during Yom Kippur

A man throws bread into a creek in Boulder, Colorado as part of a tashlich ceremony, which involves symbolically casting away sins.

Jeremy Papasso/Digital First Media/Boulder Daily Camera via Getty Images


hide caption

toggle caption

Advertisement

Jeremy Papasso/Digital First Media/Boulder Daily Camera via Getty Images

In the fall of 2021, 67-year-old Nancy Piness couldn’t bring herself to pick up the phone and call her friend, even though they had known each other for decades.

Earlier that year, they had something of a falling out. There was no one terrible thing that happened, but over the years they had disagreements, differences of opinion and tension. One day, it just became too much and they stopped talking.

“I deliberately avoided her street,” Piness said. “I deliberately hoped I wouldn’t run into her at the grocery store.”

Advertisement

This time of year, Piness thinks about her friend a lot.

That’s because Friday night marks the beginning of Yom Kippur (the Day of Atonement) — the holiest day of the Jewish year. It’s observed with fasting, prayer and deep introspection.

“Yom Kippur is seen as this really special window where if you express an actual regret and you ask to be absolved, then God will absolve anything — literally anything,” explains Rabbi Chana Leslie Glazer, interim rabbi at a congregation in King of Prussia, Pennsylvania.

“There is one little caveat, though. If you don’t make right with the other people that you’ve hurt, then that can’t be forgiven,” said Glazer.

This idea is central to the Jewish High Holidays. And in the weeks leading up to Yom Kippur, many Jews try to repair broken relationships.

Advertisement

“There are a lot of people who will go around,” said Glazer, ”writing up a list of all the people that they need to ask forgiveness from and that they want to apologize to.”

But this process requires preparation.

One way this is done is through a service called selichot, which happens within the week before the Jewish New Year (Rosh Hashanah). The word selichot means pardons, and the service is designed to help one reflect on the ways in which they’ve fallen short in the past year.

For the sins we have committed

On a humid Saturday night in northwest Washington, DC a small group of congregants gather together at Temple Micah. Nancy Piness was one of them.

Standing in a circle, they lit a braided candle, sipped from a ceremonial cup of wine, smelled sweet spices and recited the blessings that mark the ending of Shabbat. Then they filed into the sanctuary, and began the selichot service.

Advertisement

One of the prayers they recited is the Al Chet — a communal confession of sins which is said many times over the course of the High Holidays. It pairs with another prayer called Ashamnu, in which many congregants clench their right hand in a fist and pound their heart as they recite each sin.

This is the fourth High Holiday season that Piness has been out of regular contact with her friend, who isn’t Jewish. This year, she finally feels ready to have a conversation. And she’s been thinking a lot about what she’ll say.

“I can tell it’s emotional now and I can feel the lump in my throat and I may burst into tears, which she doesn’t always understand,” said Piness. When she finally picks up the phone to call or text, she said her message will be something like: “Too much time has gone by. I miss you. And I hope we can find some time soon to talk.”

Forgiveness is a process

The Jewish philosopher Maimonides outlined four steps that make up the process of seeking atonement or forgiveness. Glazer explains that the first step is to recognize the improper action and stop. Second, to verbally confess. Third, to genuinely regret the action. And the fourth is to make sure not to do it again.

For years, Piness was stuck between those steps.

Advertisement

“I could be in services for hours on end and think about things. But I’m a feeler, and I’m a doer. And it’s time to act,” said Piness.

So this year, she finally did reach out.

“I was anxious,” said Piness. “I was really anxious. And I didn’t want to pick up the phone and call because she’s not a phone person. And so I texted.”

She asked how her friend was doing and if they could talk in person.

“She wrote back minutes later. And she said, ‘Hi Nancy — thank you for being in touch. I’m willing to get together, but right now I’m the one with too many things going on.’”

Advertisement

Piness plans to sit down with her friend, as soon as they both can. But she knows there’s still a lot of work to do, and it won’t be done before Yom Kippur begins at sundown on Friday. 

Glazer advises a lot of people who are having trouble making amends, and who may feel pressure to do it on deadline around Yom Kippur.

“We talk about at the end of Yom Kippur that it’s the closing of the gates and that’s the end of your window. And that’s more meant to inspire people to really think deeply, as deeply as they possibly can about what they’ve done and to really go as far as they can with it,” Glazer said.

“But also it’s important to understand that if you don’t quite get all the way there by the end of Yom Kippur, it’s perfectly fine to go in later and do the rest of your work.”

Piness is relieved that even though things aren’t completely resolved, at least she’s taken these first steps.

Advertisement
Continue Reading

News

How a Fox News host’s misleading question about migrant children morphed into a Trump talking point

Published

on

How a Fox News host’s misleading question about migrant children morphed into a Trump talking point

Former President Donald J. Trump and his surrogates have repeatedly accused the Biden administration of losing tens of thousands of migrant children, distorting, conflating and inflating government statistics.

The misleading claim, now a staple of Mr. Trump’s stump speeches, appears to have originated from Fox News and snowballed. Its evolution shows Mr. Trump’s penchant for exaggeration as well as his symbiotic relationship with the network.

June 2, 2024

Mr. Trump is interviewed on Fox News.

When the Fox News host Rachel Campos-Duffy told Mr. Trump that the Biden administration had “lost” 80,000 children, Mr. Trump expressed surprise at her ensuing question.

“Will you commit to finding those children?” she asked.

Advertisement

“I haven’t been asked that question, but the answer is yes. It’s a simple answer,” Mr. Trump responded, adding: “Many of them are dead. They have done such a bad job.”

Ms. Campos-Duffy’s claim referred to migrant children who arrive at the border unaccompanied by adults. Under government protocols, the children, once apprehended by border officials, are placed in the care of the Health and Human Services Department’s refugee resettlement office. The office then releases the children to sponsors, sometimes family members, who undergo a background check. The New York Times reported last year that the office, which checks on the children via phone calls, was unable to reach 85,000 children, or about a third of cases, in 2021 and 2022. The Times did not report that the children were “lost,” but that they were more susceptible to exploitative and illegal working conditions.

June 6, 2024

Days later, Mr. Trump invokes the figure at a town hall in Phoenix.

Railing against President Biden’s border policies, Mr. Trump added once again that many children were now “dead” and “if it were me, it would be the biggest story.”

Advertisement

In fact, when Mr. Trump was in office, his administration also tried to contact — and was also unable to reach — thousands of migrant children who had left the refugee office’s care. And there is no evidence that thousands of the children died under either Mr. Biden or Mr. Trump.

Under Mr. Trump, the Health and Human Services Department could not reach 19 percent of migrant children (about 1,500) who were placed with sponsors from October to December 2017, or 11.6 percent of children or their sponsors (about 9,200 calls) from August 2018 to December 2020. In comparison, a Biden administration official testified to Congress that 19 percent of the refugee office’s calls to the children or their sponsors went unanswered.

When Democrats accused the Trump administration of “losing” unaccompanied children, the health department said in 2018 that those claims were “completely false” and that sponsors “simply did not respond or could not be reached when this voluntary call was made.”

At the time, a Trump administration official said that there were various reasons sponsors or children might not pick up the phone. They may be hesitant to answer calls from unknown government agents, especially if they have unauthorized status or a fear of traffickers. Sponsors may also simply have different telephone numbers.

Advertisement

June 7, 2024

Mr. Trump repeats the figure in an interview with Dr. Phil.

“We have 88,000 missing children. Now, can you imagine if that were Trump that had 88,000 missing children? 88,000. That’s a holocaust.”

July 9, 2024

Mr. Trump doubles the number
at a rally in Doral, Fla.

“The Biden-Harris administration has lost track of an estimated 150,000 children, many of whom have undoubtedly been raped, trafficked, killed or horribly abused.”

Advertisement

Mr. Trump appeared to extrapolate this figure from government data showing that nearly 400,000 children had been placed with sponsors over the past four years. Assuming that the office was still unable to reach a third of them, that is equivalent to about 133,000 children.

Aug. 22, 2024

A month later, Mr. Trump distorts a new government report to inflate the number to 300,000 migrant children.

A report from the Department of Homeland Security’s inspector general provided Mr. Trump with new fodder. The report, released in mid-August, noted that out of some 448,000 unaccompanied migrant children placed into the custody of the refugee office from the 2019 to the 2023 fiscal years, about 32,000 children had failed to appear for their immigration hearings. Another 291,000 did not receive “notices to appear” in immigration court at all.

Again, these children were not “lost,” though the report chided immigration officials by noting that without an ability to monitor the location of the children, they were more susceptible to “trafficking, exploitation or forced labor.” Moreover, about half of that period — the 2019 and 2020 fiscal years, and part of the 2021 fiscal year — was during the Trump administration.

Advertisement

Aug. 23, 2024

Mr. Trump campaigns in
Glendale, Ariz.

“According to a new D.H.S. report, Kamala Harris also lost, and this is impossible to believe, listen to this, 325,000 migrant children are gone. They’re missing. She allowed them to be trafficked into our country.”

Aug. 30, 2024

Mr. Trump speaks in
Johnstown, Pa.

Advertisement

By now, the claim, updated with the inflated figure, has become a common refrain for Mr. Trump.

Sept. 13, 2024

Mr. Trump addresses a news conference in Ranchos Palos Verdes, Calif.

“Under this administration, 325,000 migrant children are missing, 325,000. In other words, take your biggest stadium in California and you could fill it up five or six times. Those are all missing children.”

Advertisement

Sept. 29, 2024

Mr. Trump appears at
a rally in Erie, Pa.

“This is not even possible to believe. 325,000 migrant children are missing, many of whom have been trafficked and raped. As California attorney general, she lost them all.”

Oct. 1, 2024

Senator JD Vance repeats the number at the vice-presidential debate, but adds caveats.

Mr. Vance, Mr. Trump’s vice-presidential pick, advances the talking point on the national stage, though he uses more tempered language in claiming that the children have been “effectively lost.” He does not repeat Mr. Trump’s contention that “many” have died.

Advertisement

Oct. 6, 2024

Mr. Trump, addressing supporters at a rally in Juneau, Wis., reverts to shorthand to refer to the number.

“She doesn’t mention how bad inflation was, how bad the 325,000 children that we just mention.”

Mr. Trump abbreviates the misleading claim into a simple two-word phrase: “325,000 children.” Like other phrases — “laptop from hell” or “$85 billion in equipment” — the shorthand suggests that his audience is now familiar with his distortions after months of repetition.

Advertisement
Continue Reading

Trending