Kildee’s open Michigan seat a ‘prime pickup’ opportunity for GOP: CLF polling memo

EXCLUSIVE — In a new polling memo, the Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC closely aligned with House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), views Michigan’s 8th Congressional District seat, which recently became open after Rep. Dan Kildee’s (D-MI) retirement announcement, as a pickup opportunity for House Republicans.

A Kildee has represented the seat since 1977. First, it was former Democratic Rep. Dale Kildee, who had the seat from 1977 until 2013, when he retired. Then, his nephew, Dan Kildee, took it over — but he intends to retire at the end of this Congress.

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With Kildee’s retirement, the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter moved the seat from a “Lean Democrat” to a “Toss Up,” and new polling from CLF obtained by the Washington Examiner shows that to be the case.

President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, the GOP front-runner for president, are tied 44% to 44% despite the district not having gone for Republicans in the presidential election in recent history, according to the polling.

In the generic ballot, Democrats hold a slight advantage at 45% to 46%, but a Republican candidate leads among independents by 8%.

When the group polled local Republicans who have been elected in the district, they led a possible Democratic rival 43% to 40%. CLF declined to name the specific officials it polled.

Biden’s approval rating is also low in the district, according to the poll, which showed 41% of voters approve of the job he is doing and 52% disapprove.

“Voters say that President Biden’s performance makes them less likely to support Democrats down-ballot by a margin of 10%, with 52% of independents saying they are less likely and only 21% saying they are more likely,” the memo reads.

Because of all these factors, CLF views the seat as a “prime pickup opportunity for Republicans.”

However, Democrats still view this seat as one they can win and believe they are in a prime position to hold on to it next cycle, especially since they have held the Flint-area seat for over 45 years.

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“Democrats have a deep bench in Michigan’s 8th Congressional District and a real record of accomplishments to run on,” Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesman Aidan Johnson said. “The GOP on the other hand has a perennial loser who can’t make it out of a Republican primary for the state legislature and a California carpetbagger who recently moved to the district to run for office. We are confident that this seat will remain in Democratic hands next November.”

So far, declared candidates include Democrat Pamela Pugh, president of the Michigan State Board of Education; Republican Martin Blank, a surgeon and Army veteran; and Republican Paul Junge, a former TV news anchor and prosecutor who lost to Kildee in 2022 by 10 points.