Illinois
Illinois vs. Rutgers Prediction, Preview, and Odds – 12-2-2023
It’s a matchup of Big Ten foes on the parquet floor as a pair of conference foes lock up in the Garden State looking for a win. The #24 Illinois Fighting Illini are on the road as they make the trip east to take on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights Saturday afternoon. Illinois comes in off an 84-52 demolition of Western Illinois last Friday in their previous contest at home as they covered the line as a 27.5-point favorite. Rutgers clobbered Saint Peter’s 71-40 at home Monday night in their previous game, covering the line as a 15.5-point favorite. In the all-time series between the teams, the Fighting Illini owns an 11-4 advantage, including a 69-60 home win in the most recent matchup on February 11, 2023.
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Illinois Fighting Illini Seeking to Open Conference Play on Positive Note
Illinois won their third straight game as they rolled past Western Illinois at home in their previous contest last Friday night. The Fighting Illini improved to 5-1 on the season with the win and look to open up conference play on a positive note here. Against Western Illinois, Illinois jumped in front 21-6 8 ½ minutes into the game and finished the half on a 19-7 run after the Leathernecks had made it a five-point game. That put the Fighting Illini up 17 at the half and they weren’t seriously challenged in the second half en route to the victory. Illinois shot 47.2% from the floor, including 10 of 25 from three-point range, and won the rebounding battle 54-38 in the game. Terrence Shannon Jr. led the Fighting Illini with 19 points in the win.
The Fighting Illini puts up an average of 77.8 points per game on the season, which puts them 125th in the nation in scoring offense. Illinois collects 48.3 rebounds per contest (2nd in the nation) while handing out 13.2 assists per game. The Fighting Illini is above average defensively, ranking 8th in the nation by allowing 58.7 points per game. Terrence Shannon Jr. leads the team with an average of 19.5 points plus 3.5 rebounds per contest and 2.8 assists per game this season. Dain Dainja (10.3 points, 5.3 rebounds), Luke Goode and Marcus Domask provide solid secondary scoring options. Ty Rodgers, Quincy Guerrier, Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn, Coleman Hawkins, Niccolo Moretti, Amani Hansberry and Justin Harmon are other contributors for coach Brad Underwood. Illinois shoots 46.7% from the floor as a team. The Fighting Illini connects on 8.2 three-pointers a game while shooting 31.6% from long range. Illinois is struggling at the free throw line this season as they convert just 57.1% of their opportunities, putting them 360th in the nation.
Hawkins (knee) missed the last three games while Moretti (leg) missed the last contest. Both players are considered questionable for this contest.
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Rutgers Scarlet Knights Looking for Sixth Straight Win
Rutgers won their fifth straight game after opening the season with a loss to Princeton as they flattened Saint Peter’s at home in their previous game. The Scarlet Knights improved to 5-1 on the season with the win and look to maintain their momentum as they take the floor here in conference action. Against Saint Peter’s, Rutgers led by two midway through the first half before outscoring the Peacocks 16-8 the rest of the half to take a 10-point lead at intermission. The Scarlet Knights led by as many as 37 in the second half en route to the victory. Rutgers shot 38.2% from the field, including six of 20 from three-point range, and held the Peacocks to 23.6% shooting in the game to offset losing the rebounding battle 51-38. Noah Fernandes led the Scarlet Knights with 19 points and four rebounds in the win.
The Scarlet Knights are below average on the offensive end of the floor as they are 263rd in the nation with 70.5 points per game. Rutgers is 85th in the country in rebounding (39.5) and 187th in assists with 13.3 dimes a night. The Scarlet Knights are elite on defense as they come in 3rd in the nation by allowing 55.5 points per game. Aundre Hyatt leads the team with 12 points and 5.7 rebounds per game this season. Cliff Omoruyi (11.7 points, 9.2 rebounds) and Derek Simpson (10.7 points) also average in double figures this season. Gavin Griffiths, Noah Fernandes, Antwone Woolfolk, Austin Williams, Jamichael Davis, Mawot Mag and Oskar Palmquist are looked at to contribute on a nightly basis for the Scarlet Knights. Rutgers shoots 42.1% from the floor as a team on the year. The Scarlet Knights connect on 5.8 threes a night but shoot 28.7% from long range. Rutgers is scuffling at the charity stripe as they hit just 65.4% at the line as a team this season, putting them 306th in the nation.
Mag (knee) is out indefinitely.
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Both teams are off to strong starts this season as Illinois is unbeaten while Rutgers stands 5-1 on the season. Each team has been extremely tough on the defensive end of the floor, ranking in the top 10 in the nation in scoring defense this season. Illinois has the edge on the offensive end of the floor and on the glass as they are second in the country in that department entering Friday’s action. This is another game where free throw shooting is an adventure with both teams ranking 300th or worse in the nation. That could make it tough to salt a game away if it’s close in the late stages. Rutgers is at home but Illinois is a battle-tested team. That’s enough to give the Fighting Illini the upper hand as they earn the road win here.
Prediction: Illinois Fighting Illini -1
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Illinois enters this game having seen the under hit in four of their six games in relation to the total on the year. The Fighting Illini are 62nd in offensive efficiency, 13th in defensive efficiency, 81st in effective field goal percentage (53.1%) and 1st in effective field goal percentage defense (37.8%) on the year. Illinois leads the nation in two-point defense (37.3%) and stand 17th in three-point defense (25.9%) this season. The Fighting Illini are a fast-paced team as they are 87th in adjusted tempo with 71 possessions a night this season. Rutgers has seen the under hit in five of their six games on the year. The Scarlet Knights are 12th in defensive efficiency, 6th in effective field goal percentage defense (40.7%), 12th in turnover percentage forced (25.5%) and second in two-point defense (37.7%) on the year. Rutgers is 207th in tempo with 68.5 possessions a night this season. This one should be a rock fight that winds up falling short of the total.
Prediction: Under 135
Illinois
Illinois or Northwestern? Voters picked the team they hope will win Saturday at Wrigley Field
Northwestern will be the home team Saturday against Illinois at Wrigley Field. Yes, in football. Some of you probably have been too busy sticking pins in your George McCaskey dolls to realize this was about to happen.
In this week’s “Polling Place,” your home for Sun-Times sports polls on the social platform X, we asked which team you’d rather see win the battle for the “Hat” trophy.
“It means more for Illinois,” wrote @JeffreyCanalia, referencing the Illini’s 8-3 record and opportunity to get into a New Year’s bowl game.
Next, we asked if Luke Richardson is the right coach to lead the Blackhawks into their next winning era.
“Nope,” @arrosen76 commented. “He’s not a rebuild coach. He’s a win-now coach.”
“I would like it if he stopped changing his lines so much,” @MeersmanChris offered. “Has he heard of consistency or chemistry?”
Last, we asked how often you’ve been betting on sports.
“Much, much less often than in 2020-21,” @DeyoSahler wrote. “It’s so difficult to win consistently.”
That’s true in gambling. It’s also true for pretty much all Chicago sports teams, just saying.
On to the polls:
Poll No. 1: Which team would you rather see win Saturday’s game at Wrigley Field, Illinois or Northwestern?
It’s time for this week’s “Polling Place.” Let us hear from you! Selected comments will appear in Sunday’s paper.
Poll No. 1: Which team would you rather see win Saturday’s football game at Wrigley Field, Illinois or Northwestern?
— Chicago Sun-Times (@Suntimes) November 29, 2024
Upshot: A 70-30 vote split in favor of the visiting Illini goes perfectly with the 70-30 crowd split we’re bound to see in favor of the Illini.
Poll No. 2: Is Luke Richardson the right coach to help make the Blackhawks winners again?
Poll No. 2: Is Luke Richardson the right coach to help make the Blackhawks winners again?
— Chicago Sun-Times (@Suntimes) November 29, 2024
Upshot: The Hawks went 26-49-7 for 59 points in Richardson’s first season. But then they got it together and went 23-53-6 for 52 points in his second season. Wait, is the second one worse than the first one? Never mind.
Poll No. 3: How often are you betting on sports?
Poll No. 3: How often are you betting on sports?
— Chicago Sun-Times (@Suntimes) November 29, 2024
Upshot: Don’t worry about what others are doing, OK? You just worry about picking that 11-team parlay today that’s totally going to come in.
Illinois
Detective Fatally Shot, Road Rage Slaying: Illinois News
ILLINOIS — On the weekend, we present a week in review of the top stories and headlines from all across Illinois. Here’s a roundup of some of the most-read stories across the state. You can also find your local Patch and catch up on those stories by clicking here.
Murder Charge Filed In I-80 Road Rage Shooting Death
State police responded to a 911 call of a shooting on I-80 and found a 30-year-old man who had been shot to death after a road rage-related crash, officials said.
Detective Killed In Shooting
Police said the officer, 40, was fatally shot after responding to a report of an armed person leaving a bank. The person accused in the shooting was also shot and is hospitalized, police said.
Illinois
Brad Underwood finally mastered Illinois’ winning formula
Happy Friday, Illinois Land!
Instead of doing the usual column with post-Thanksgiving word puns involving side dishes and jokes about turkeys, I will use my time to point out a few things that I now know about college basketball in 2025, and the place that Illinois occupies inside of that stratosphere.
I will also discuss where Illinois fits into the landscape of the Big Ten. I think you’ll like how I see that unfolding. My pending Big Ten Analysis will highlight the lack of good depth in the conference.
It is not exactly a banner year for the Big Ten in men’s college basketball. To say the least.
Despite the fact that the Big Ten has dropped in the national landscape, and despite the fact that Illinois lost to a True Elite in 2025 against Alabama in Birmingham by double digits, it’s great beyond words to have a head basketball coach leading your program playing basketball the way it needs to be played at this present date.
Brad Underwood has turned Illinois into a National Program. Do not confuse this with being a national powerhouse.
As I see it, here are the five levels of Illinois basketball. National Championship Contender can replace Blue Blood for Illinois. There was no way for me to get in a shot at Indiana and its fans unless I constituted it this way.
For reference: Indiana is now No. 61 in KenPom (76 in OER, and 51 in DER). I was told that they are the conference favorite. I was also told Illinois cannot play defense. More on this in a bit.
- Conference Bottomfeeder (Year 1-2): 26-39 in his first two seasons, 11-27 in the Big Ten. I would call this 1990s Era coaching. Up the line, full court pressure, etc.
- Respected NCAA Tournament Team (Year 3+): This will be five-straight non-bubble NCAATs for Underwood, six if you count the COVID-19 cancellation of 2020.
- Big Ten Power (Year 3+): In turn, this makes you a Final Four contender on semi-annual basis, at a minimum. I don’t mean make a Final Four, but be a Top Four seed. No one believes that NC State had a better season than Illinois last year.
- National (and International) Program (Year 4+): Playing games on CBS on Thanksgiving by request, re-hiring arguably the country’s top assistant coach (Orlando Antigua), signing two potential lottery picks from two countries outside the United States. I could go on, but I won’t. You get it.
- Blue Blood (Never): This outdated term continues to keep Indiana fans from jumping off the nearest bridge for the last three-plus decades. Illinois will never be here. UCONN can’t get into the club with six National Championships since 1999.
Having said that, I’m going to say this.
John Calipari is in the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame. He has taken three different programs to the Final Four: Massachusetts, Memphis and Kentucky. He is an all-time great coach with a dazzling record (814-260, for a .758 winning percentage).
Calipari won an NCAA Tournament and cut down the nets in 2012, his third year in Lexington leading the Cats. He was outstanding at Kentucky (410-123), winning games at a .769 clip during his 15-year tenure.
He inexplicably missed the NCAA Tournament twice, going just 9-16 in 2021. His last three years, Kentucky lost 30 games and twice in the NCAAT to vastly inferior teams against No. 15 St. Peter’s and last year against No. 14 Oakland.
Please read the words I type. Do not create a false narrative around comparing Calipari and Underwood, in totality.
Underwood certainly has not had the career of Calipari — it’s not close — nor will he likely end up in the Hall of Fame anywhere outside of Champaign. Not impossible, but not likely.
Looking to the future, it’s clear which coach of the pair from the Thanksgiving matchup in Kansas City has the brighter future. This isn’t close, either.
While Underwood’s Illini blitzed Arkansas with a barrage of threes, high ball screens and floor spacing for play makers, Calipari and Kentu…Arkansas…had a plan “to attack the rim all game,” according to Calipari post-game.
Arkansas ATTEMPTED 17 threes. Illinois MADE 15. Illinois was +30 in in this category.
Frees (points at the free throw line) and threes (points behind the arc) is something I look at during every halftime, and after every game.
Illinois was +29 in this category. BU’s squad scored 90 points on the elite Arkansas defense, which was ranked No. 8 in KenPom DER prior to the contest.
The Illini had 60 of their 90 points (67.7%) of their points on Frees and Threes. Check on this stat every game that Underwood and Illinois play the entirety of the season. It will likely tell the story.
Factor in 2P% defense and you can get the winner of every game Illinois plays this year. The defensive strategy of Illinois is to defend the bucket and the arc. Despite giving a bucket full to Alabama in the lone loss (100-87), Illinois is currently No. 21 in DER.
Let’s take a look at pace of play, and how it affects efficiency, from a large scale perspective. What Illinois is doing is hard to copy.
For that matter, the Illinois offense is now No. 18 in OER (Offensive Efficiency Rating). Of the top 21 in DER on KenPom, Illinois has the FASTEST tempo, at No. 36.
In summary, Illinois plays in the Top 10% in pace of play and ranks even better in efficiency at both ends. It’s not only extremely difficult to do, but largely unnecessary.
When you play fast and efficient on offense, defense lessens in importance in direct correlation with how more efficient your offense can be. In short, play fast and good on offense and you outscore your opponent and win based on simple math.
Here are the avearages for defensive and offensive efficiency. The lower the number, the faster the pace.
Top 5 DERs in terms of pace average: 260.6
Top 5 OERs in terms of pace average: 66.8
Illinois pace of play: 36 (Top 21 in both DER and OER)
I know it’s a lot of numbers. I get it. Underwood has embraced the numbers game and turned Illinois from a Big Ten Bottomfeeder to a National Program.
You may not like it, but you’re gonna learn to love it.
Please take The Scientific Poll.
Poll
What is the win ceiling for Illinois men’s basketball in 2024-25?
This is threes and frees. This is creating space. This is the winning formula.
This is Illinois Basketball.
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