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Kiplinger’s Personal Finance: The year ahead for bonds

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Kiplinger’s Personal Finance: The year ahead for bonds

If there’s any fact to the adage “It’s at all times darkest earlier than the daybreak,” then the solar must be heating up the bond market someday quickly.

Regardless of a brief rally in December, the bond market suffered its worst decline in many years, due to the Federal Reserve’s swift and sizable rate of interest will increase in 2022. Bond costs and rates of interest transfer in reverse instructions: When charges rise, bond costs fall.

All informed, there was “nowhere to cover,” says John Lovito, co-chief funding officer of world mounted earnings at American Century Investments. The broad bond benchmark, the Bloomberg U.S. Combination Bond index, fell a whopping 11.6% over the 12 months ending in early December.

To make issues worse, shares faltered, too. Individuals purchase bonds partially to cushion inventory market declines, however this previous yr, bonds didn’t fare a lot better than shares. “That’s left folks with a bitter style of their mouths,” says monetary adviser Lew Altfest, of Altfest Private Wealth Administration.

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Issues usually appear at their worst earlier than they get higher, nevertheless, and today, most analysts agree that the bond market is at an inflection level. “Bonds are going to be again in 2023,” says Luis Alvarado, an funding technique analyst on the worldwide mounted earnings technique crew at Wells Fargo Funding Institute.

The worst of the speed hikes are probably behind us. Most analysts count on the Federal Reserve to extend short-term rates of interest a few instances extra, by smaller increments than in months previous (0.50 share level or much less), earlier than pausing to judge the impression of fee will increase on inflation. From there, the Fed would possibly pause for longer, or it would elevate charges additional if inflation hasn’t cooled sufficient, or it would minimize rates of interest if the financial system falls arduous right into a recession.

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In any case, rates of interest are increased now, and traders ought to lock in yields whereas they’ll. For instance, 10-year Treasuries not too long ago yielded 3.55%, up from 1.75% a yr earlier. Meaning traders now have a cushion in curiosity earnings to offset any drop in bond costs, Altfest says, if rates of interest inch increased.

Plus, traders don’t should tackle a lot danger to earn an honest yield. “They don’t have to purchase long-dated bonds or go down in credit score high quality,” says Mary Ellen Stanek, co-chief funding officer at Baird Asset Administration. Certainly, a recurrent theme for 2023, together with for iShares funding strategist Gargi Chaudhuri, is to “transfer up in high quality.”

Nellie S. Huang is senior affiliate editor at Kiplinger’s Private Finance journal. For extra on this and related cash matters, go to Kiplinger.com.

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Finance

When You’re Laid Off But Still Have to Go to Work

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When You’re Laid Off But Still Have to Go to Work

Photo-Illustration: by The Cut; Photo: Getty Images

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When layoffs happen, they’re often immediate — former employees are shown the door and locked out of their company email within hours. Others are given a few days to tie up loose ends. But in a few cases, the good-byes drag on … and on and on. Sometimes laid-off workers have to stay on for weeks if they want severance and even train their replacements themselves. It’s awkward! Still, you’re getting paid just to keep showing up. Here, three laid-off women share what they did — and didn’t do — with the extra weeks they had to hang around their old jobs.

At the beginning of December, we all woke up to an email that was like, “The company’s closing in three weeks.” I think it went out at 7 a.m. on a Monday. Everyone came into the office and met with their bosses. And then it was basically several weeks of intense senioritis. No one was working hard or doing much of anything. People were openly interviewing for new jobs at their desks. You’d walk by and hear someone being like, “Well, my strengths are …” Everyone was like, “Who are you talking to? Do you know anyone hiring?” There was a sense of solidarity, and no one gave a shit anymore. Even our bosses were getting laid off, so there wasn’t anyone to be mad at — I mean, maybe extreme upper management, but they weren’t in our office.

It was a weirdly fun time to be at work. All the guise of professionalism was gone. We were all in the same boat, using that time to network and stealing company swag. Within a few days, the office supply closet was completely bare. All I managed to get were some mugs and pens.

They also gave us really good severance — six months of full pay. I wound up having a new job lined up before our last day. Frankly, I don’t think anyone was really that surprised that we were closing. It was a start-up and terribly managed, and they just threw money at everything. At the beginning, they were flush with VC cash, and we could do whatever we wanted — I’d pitch a project that would require me to fly across the country, and they’d be like, “Okay!” It was clear that it wasn’t going to last. There was almost this sense of having gotten away with something.

Five weeks ago, a meeting was put on my calendar on a Friday to discuss changes within my organization. I knew that layoffs were coming at some point — our chief marketing officer had told us a few months ago — but I didn’t think I’d be affected. They’d hired a consulting firm to go through and “streamline” certain departments, but if anything, I thought I’d get good news. I’d built a lot of relationships in my role, and I’d heard that the team I managed, which consisted of 20 people, might be expanding. So I got on the meeting — we’re mostly remote — and made some stupid joke and then I saw my manager looking terribly sad. And they said my role had been eliminated and my team would be decentralized. My boss was sending me text messages the whole time like, “I’m so sorry, I had no idea.”

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Come Monday, I found out which members of my team had been laid off too, and was completely shocked. One was a top performer. There were huge cuts across the company, almost at random. But no one knew who was safe and who wasn’t, which created more gossip. I got a call from a colleague who was like, “Oh my gosh, it’s a bloodbath.” He started listing all these people who were being let go. And I was like, “Yeah, and me too.” He couldn’t get off the phone fast enough.

Some people were dismissed immediately; others were given two weeks. They gave me five weeks, which I think was an attempt to be nice. But is it nice? It seems like they picked my final date based on the end of the quarter, so that they wouldn’t have to budget for my salary next quarter. Ultimately, it was just very awkward. I care a lot about my team, and I wanted to try to help with the transition as much as I could. But five weeks is a very long time to be hovering and feeling useless, the object of people’s pity. My end date was conditional — I had to stay for that five weeks if I wanted my severance package — but toward the end, I was just hanging around. During my last week, I got an automated email from the company congratulating me on my two-year work anniversary.

I stopped setting an alarm in the morning. If somebody needed me, they knew how to reach me, but I was only working for about two hours each day. There just wasn’t that much for me to do. I live near Disney World, so I went there a fair amount. I did a lot of reading. I went to 4:30 p.m. pilates classes. I’ve been looking at my LinkedIn. I trained for a 10K. I spent more time with my friends, and my dog got a lot of exercise. With my severance package, I technically don’t have to work for the rest of the year. Hopefully I find something new before then. But I also need some time to mend from this experience. I know I was valuable here, but they didn’t care — I was just a number on a spreadsheet.

I’d planned to send out a nice farewell note and put up an out-of-office message on my last day. But then, after I had five weeks to plan it, I got cut off from the system early, before I could do it. After all that, I didn’t even get to say good-bye. Now I just have to mail in my laptop.

When I was laid off and told that my last day would be in a month, I was in such shock that my immediate response was Maybe if I work extra hard before my last day, they won’t actually let me go. It was like a bad breakup where you hope you can change their mind. I had just turned 30 and gone through an actual bad breakup with my college boyfriend, too, so I was grappling with my self-esteem on multiple fronts.

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Not that I even considered it, but if I’d left before my end date, I would just get two weeks of severance. So the choice was either get paid for six more weeks or two more weeks — sort of a no-brainer. I was looking for a new job the whole time, but I was also still working my butt off. I stayed in this denial phase that maybe, if I proved myself, they’d be like, “Oh, we’ll keep you on for one more month, and another month after that.” It was delusional.

Some people have the intuition that they’re getting let go. I did not. I was never really given a reason. It seemed like a weird mismanagement issue, though I never really got to the bottom of it.

After I talked to HR, I went back to my desk. I sort of assumed my boss would say something, but she didn’t. So I waited for maybe an hour and then was like, Fuck this, I’m going home. Then I went out with a friend and got really, really drunk. The next morning I was so hungover, but I went into work anyway. And for the next few weeks, I was just trying to do everything as perfectly as possible. There was actually a lot of work to do. I had to finish up all of my deliverables and create a handover memo for all my responsibilities. I was also trying to be strategic. I figured that everyone I worked with might hopefully be a reference for me someday. So I wanted to be in everyone’s good graces.

I had a lot of access to free products at my job, but I didn’t take anything. I was honestly too nervous. I downloaded my contacts and some of my work off the company server, and I even felt guilty about that, which I know I shouldn’t have. At one point I asked my boss if we could say that I was leaving — not that I had been laid off — and she was like, “No.” She was not interested in being remotely helpful. Looking back, I’m so glad I got out of that job. It was such an awful workplace. And it’s wild to me that I was so desperate to stay for as long as I could.

Email your money conundrums to mytwocents@nymag.com (and read our submission terms here.)

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Japan committed to act appropriately on weak yen: finance minister

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Japan committed to act appropriately on weak yen: finance minister

Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said Thursday there is no change “at all” in the Japanese government’s stance that it will act appropriately to address the weakening of the yen after it slipped past 155 to the U.S. dollar

Speaking in parliament, Suzuki said the government is carefully monitoring currency market developments but declined to comment further, amid market vigilance over a possible yen-buying dollar-selling operation to slow the Japanese currency’s fall.

“We are closely watching market developments. There is no change at all in our resolve to respond appropriately based on this,” Suzuki said.

The finance chief has repeatedly issued verbal warnings about the yen’s volatility, threatening to take appropriate action without ruling out any options.

Still, his latest comments did not suggest a change in tone, days after he said conditions were being set for “appropriate” action, without giving further details. Japan previously stepped into the currency market to arrest the yen’s sharp drop in late 2022.

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Japan’s top government spokesman Yoshimasa Hayashi reiterated that currency moves should be stable, reflecting economic fundamentals.

“We are of the view that excessive fluctuations are not desirable. The government will be closely watching market developments and take all necessary steps,” said Hayashi, the chief Cabinet secretary.

The yen’s depreciation reflects a wide interest rate gap between Japan and the United States.

The Bank of Japan, which holds a two-day policy meeting from Thursday, raised interest rates for the first time in 17 years last month but the central bank is not expected to rapidly push rates higher and it has underscored the need to continue accommodative financial conditions.

The U.S. Federal Reserve, meanwhile, is now expected to cut interest rates later than initially thought, boosting the dollar further.

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A weak yen inflates import costs, which contributes to higher inflation in Japan.


Related coverage:

Yen drops to 155 range, new 34-year low against U.S. dollar

BOJ to check effects of rate hike amid weak yen at policy meeting

Nikkei stock index surges over 2% on tech gains

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Finance

State investigating campaign-finance complaints against Lucido

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State investigating campaign-finance complaints against Lucido

Michigan Secretary of State elections officials are investigating whether Macomb County Prosecutor Peter Lucido violated the state Campaign Finance Act by using county resources for election activities.

The regulatory section of the Bureau of Elections with the Department of State provided a letter to inform Republican Lucido of its “examination” of allegations by Democratic activist Mark Brewer. The bureau falls under Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, a Democrat.

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