The looming halving, though monumental, is expected to be a “price non-event,” according to Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group, a global independent financial advisor and asset manager.

In the lead-up to the event, implied volatility for the original cryptocurrency has increased, indicating that there might be more price turbulence around this quadrennial event. However, deVere CEO is advising against placing bullish bets on this volatility as the price swings might not necessarily translate into profitable outcomes. 

Green believes that Bitcoin’s impending reward halving, slated for today or tomorrow, is unlikely to cause a volatility explosion and its impact on price will be minimal.

“While the haliving is a pivotal moment in the cryptocurrency world, it likely won’t significantly affect Bitcoin’s value immediately. Much of the positive economic impact was likely priced in months ago when investors, traders, and speculators anticipated the event, which drove the price to new all-time highs last month,” Green explained.

Bitcoin reached a record-breaking $75,830 on March 14, 2024, ahead of the halving. However, Green suggests that the true value of the halving will only become apparent over a longer term: 

“The reduction in new supply enhances Bitcoin’s scarcity, reinforcing its status as a store of value. This narrative will likely have a more profound influence on Bitcoin’s price trends and investor sentiment over time than the immediate effects of the halving.” 

The effects of Bitcoin’s reward halving on its native cryptocurrency are well-documented. Historically, Bitcoin tends to hit impressive rallies about 12 to 18 months after each halving. Following the first haliving in November 2012, Bitcoin’s price increased by 9,500% over the next 367 days. Similarly, the 2016 halving resulted in a 3,040% rise over 562 days, and the 2020 event saw an 802% increase over 1,403 days.

Green also warns of short-term volatility as there might be a temporary sell-off as some investors might follow a ‘sell the news’ strategy, taking profits immediately after the halving.

“The Bitcoin halving remains a landmark event in the digital asset space, but the day itself may not live up to the hype in terms of immediate price action. However, its significance in driving long-term value for Bitcoin should not be underestimated,” Green concluded.

An Arkansas Senate committee unanimously approved two bills Thursday that would regulate cryptocurrency mining operations, and the committee will reconvene Tuesday to hear more public comment on the policies.

Republican Sens. Joshua Bryant of Rogers and Missy Irvin of Mountain View introduced the bills Wednesday after the House approved resolutions Wednesday allowing them to be introduced during the fiscal session. The Senate approved identical resolutions April 11.

The discussion of whether and how much to regulate crypto mines on the state level arose from Act 851 of 2023, or the Arkansas Data Centers Act, which limited local governments’ ability to regulate crypto mines.

Crypto mines, large groups of computers that harvest digital currency, are often located in rural areas because they take up a lot of space. They also require significant energy to operate and water to keep computers cool.

There are crypto mines in DeWitt and in the Bono community near Greenbrier, and officials have raised concerns over foreign ownership and whether the mines pose a national security risk. Additionally, Greenbrier-area residents have filed a lawsuit claiming noise pollution from the local crypto mine, which is in Irvin’s district.

Six of eight crypto mining resolutions fall short in Arkansas House

Bryant’s bill, Senate Bill 78, would place noise limits on Arkansas crypto mines, prohibit them from being owned by certain foreign entities and allow local governments to pass ordinances regulating the mines.

The bill’s listed options for noise regulations include “using liquid cooling or submerged cooling” techniques, sealing computers into structures that minimize the sound heard outside, and being located at least 2,000 feet away from “the nearest residential or commercial structure.”

Residents or business owners within 2,000 feet of a crypto mine would be able to seek legal remedies regarding noise complaints in county circuit courts, Bryant said.

The bill also clarifies that individuals can engage in crypto mining from their homes without government interference, he said.

“Digital asset mining in the home is limited to the confines of what your utilities can provide you based on your normal retail rate,” Bryant said. “This is a hobby; this is something your personal computer is able to do if you so choose…If you want to operate a business out of your home with this and declare that, then you must follow local guidelines and local ordinances.”

Irvin’s bill, Senate Bill 79, would require crypto mines to be licensed by the state Department of Energy and Environment. It would also require the department to inform legislative committees of its crypto mine regulation methods.

Both bills contain emergency clauses, meaning they would go into effect immediately if Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders signs them into law.

Six more potential crypto regulation policies passed the Senate but failed in the House within the past week.

Senate Bill 78 largely accounts for one of the failed resolutions, which would have allowed local governments to regulate crypto mines and prohibit ownership of the mines by the list of foreign countries from which the federal International Traffic in Arms Regulations bans imports and exports.

Irvin said the two bills lay the groundwork to use “several layers of tools” to both regulate the crypto industry and have future discussions in the Legislature about whether to put additional regulations in place.

“There’s a lot we don’t know and that we still are learning, so I think we need the time to flesh all that out,” she said in an interview.