Business
Why ‘Soft Landing’ Optimists Shouldn’t Celebrate Just Yet
A big test for the economy
With the S&P 500 in bull-market territory, corporate profits coming in better than expected and surprisingly decent economic growth, the soft-landing optimists are feeling pretty good about the direction of the economy. But their position will be tested as soon as Friday morning.
At 8:30 a.m. Eastern, the Commerce Department will release the June figures for the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Economists expect to see a core P.C.E. reading — which strips out volatile purchases like food and energy — of 4.2 percent, down sharply from a year ago, but still well above the central bank’s target of 2 percent.
A hot P.C.E. number could determine the Fed’s next move on interest rates. Jay Powell, the Fed chair, reiterated on Wednesday that progress had been made in reducing inflation, but that it remained too high to rule out further increases in interest rates. That is top of mind for investors, who will be scrutinizing inflation and labor market data — the next jobs report comes out next Friday — to figure out what the Fed will do in September.
The concern is that the U.S. economy is still on uncertain footing, and that further tightening of borrowing costs could trigger a downturn. The Fed’s own economists no longer predict a recession, but some on Wall Street remain bearish about the second half of the year.
Economists worry that prices will be higher for longer. “We are cautiously optimistic of a quicker return to 2 percent” core P.C.E., Andrew Patterson, senior economist at Vanguard, wrote in a research note on Thursday. But he added that such a target was not likely to be reached before 2025.
Translation: Inflation could remain a wild card for the Fed well into next year.
Europe’s economy is looking even more vulnerable. As expected, the European Central Bank raised interest rates on Thursday by a quarter percentage point, as the eurozone grapples with inflation rates well above the United States’s.
Christine Lagarde, the E.C.B.’s president, suggested that the central bank could pause on raising rates in September, as data showed high prices sapping consumers of their buying power, putting the bloc’s economy at risk. Data this morning from Germany showing that Europe’s biggest economy is stagnating underscored this concern.
Meanwhile, in Japan … The Bank of Japan surprised global markets this morning by loosening its cap on 10-year government bond yields, the equivalent of an interest-rate increase.
Japanese stocks and bonds fell sharply, catching up with a drop in U.S. stock indexes on Thursday that was driven by forecasts that Japan’s central bank would signal an end to its yearslong policy of maintaining rock-bottom interest rates.
HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING
Facebook is said to have removed Covid-related content under pressure from the White House. The platform purged content, including some claims that the coronavirus was man-made, even though it disagreed with the Biden administration’s approach to misinformation, according to company documents obtained by House Republicans. Separately, new research casts doubt on how persuasive the algorithms that power Facebook’s News Feed are at polarizing users’ political beliefs.
Regulators propose higher capital requirements for U.S. banks. Federal officials announced draft rules that could force lenders to hold 20 percent more in reserves to bolster their financial stability. The proposal could affect companies like American Express and Morgan Stanley that rely on fee income from wealth management, which would face more onerous capital requirements.
Steve Wynn is banned from Nevada’s casino business. A new settlement between the gambling magnate and state regulators, over claims of workplace sexual misconduct, includes a $10 million fine and an agreement by Mr. Wynn to stay out of the industry he helped build. Mr. Wynn, who has denied the allegations and didn’t admit wrongdoing in the settlement, had already resigned from Wynn Resorts as chairman and C.E.O.
A little-known online bank helps keep Donald Trump’s empire afloat. Attorney General Letitia James of New York is examining hundreds of millions of dollars worth of loans made by Axos Bank to Trump properties that stabilized the former president’s finances, according to The Washington Post. Meanwhile, federal prosecutors filed three new charges against Mr. Trump over his handling of classified documents.
A return to luxury megadeals?
The fashion world took note on Thursday when Kering, the conglomerate that owns Gucci, Balenciaga, Alexander McQueen and Saint Laurent, bought a 30 percent stake in Valentino at a $1.9 billion valuation.
The deal, which gives Kering the right to buy the rest of Valentino by 2028, signals the company’s return to big-ticket M.&A.
It’s a major strategic move by Kering, which has been eclipsed in recent years by its archrival LVMH, which through deals for Tiffany, Off White and others is now significantly bigger in both size and market cap.
Kering, which is controlled by the billionaire Pinault family, has also suffered from controversy at Balenciaga and turmoil at its flagship Gucci brand. The conglomerate, which has come under pressure from the activist investor Bluebell Capital Partners, has already taken steps to shake things up, like replacing Gucci’s C.E.O.
The fashion industry has long been waiting for Kering’s next steps. The company has billions in free cash flow and a need to keep up with LVMH, so bankers have speculated about what would come next. The conglomerate’s last deal, the $3.8 billion takeover of the perfume company Creed, represented a big move by Kering into beauty.
The Valentino deal is more squarely in its wheelhouse, allowing Kering to use its huge distribution platform to supercharge sales of the luxury brand.
An interesting facet of the transaction is that Kering is starting with a minority stake, a rarity in big luxury deals. There are some potential explanations for that: It could give the companies time to work out their creative vision before a potential full takeover of Valentino, or it could allow Kering to shut out possible rivals without having to buy the entirety of the brand right away.
Will more luxury M.&A. emerge? Though analysts had speculated that Valentino would pursue an I.P.O., selling gives it an immediate cash boost. And as LVMH and Kering continue to pursue scale, investors will speculate about whether other independent brands — including Armani, Burberry, Ferragamo and Prada — may become targets as well.
An argument for how not to fix flawed mergers
Despite setbacks in court, the Biden administration’s top competition cops — Lina Khan of the F.T.C. and Jonathan Kanter of the Justice Department’s antitrust division — have signaled that they’ll continue to be tough on reviewing mergers.
But proposed merger guidelines released last week are still flawed, according to Jason Furman, a head of the Council of Economic Advisers during the Obama administration, and Carl Shapiro, another Obama economic official. In a Wall Street Journal opinion piece, they write that while mergers should be closely scrutinized, the guidelines risk turning what are rules based on widely accepted economic principles into, potentially, a political football:
They contain a structural presumption against many vertical mergers unsupported by theory or evidence. The proposed guideline on acquisitions of products or services that rivals may use to compete includes legal wishful thinking about how commitments made by the merging parties are treated, as the recent court rebuke of the F.T.C.’s attempt to block Microsoft’s acquisition of Activision illustrates.
Likewise, a new guideline states that “mergers should not entrench or extend a dominant position,” where a “dominant position” means a market share of at least 30 percent. As we read this guideline, many nonhorizontal deals that enable the acquiring firm to become more efficient, and thus gain market share or compete more effectively in adjacent markets, would be considered illegal even if they benefit consumers and workers. If this isn’t the intention, revisions are needed.
“Pricing the priceless”
Climate change is impossible to ignore as wildfire smoke dulls the skies across continents and air and water temperatures soar to new highs. That makes it especially timely to consider novel approaches to addressing the climate crisis, says Paula DiPerna, author of a new book, “Pricing the Priceless: The Financial Transformation to Value the Planet, Solve the Climate Crisis, and Protect Our Most Precious Assets.”
Ms. DiPerna spoke to DealBook this week. The interview has been edited and condensed.
What’s the idea behind your argument?
The principle is that nature is an unpaid worker providing services, like carbon sequestration, soil retention, water filtration, replenishing raw materials and more. It is providing an invisible subsidy to world economies. Protecting the environment is portfolio management.
How would placing a price tag on nature help?
Take carbon pricing. If you can put a value on a ton of carbon dioxide, which we can do now, then why wouldn’t it be feasible to pay countries to not drill for oil or cut their trees, to protect resources instead of exploiting them?
Poor countries that have abundant natural resources are loaning their economic resources, like the carbon-sequestering value of their rainforests, to rich countries without compensation. Last year at COP [the U.N. climate conference], [Special Presidential Envoy for Climate] John Kerry practically begged the Democratic Republic of the Congo not to drill for oil in rainforest and peat lands, which would release lots of carbon, and the retort was “pay us.” It’s not a bad answer, actually.
Are there examples of successful projects for preserving natural resources?
The Forest Resilience Bond is the brainchild of four Berkeley graduate students. What they did was look at standing forests in the Lake Tahoe area as infrastructure. And they raised funds to maintain the forest — like you would for an infrastructure project — from the beneficiaries of the environment, such as the local wildlife service, the tourism industry, insurers and even hydropower companies that rely on standing forest to replenish groundwater. That kind of bond could be done all around the world.
Why add such a pricing structure when economies can exploit nature for free?
We are facing real costs now. Nature is the thing underpinning our economies and it is a depreciating asset. We speculate about price all the time when it comes to company valuations. Yet the atmosphere is worth nothing. We need a new kind of thinking.
THE SPEED READ
Deals
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Ford executives met with lawmakers this week amid scrutiny of the company’s deal to license electric vehicle battery technology from the Chinese company CATL. (Reuters)
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President Biden reportedly won’t attend fund-raisers in Los Angeles until the Hollywood writers and actors strikes are resolved. (TMZ)
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Business
Elon Musk, Mark Zuckerberg and Jeff Bezos to Attend Trump’s Inauguration
Bezos, Zuckerberg and Coke at the inauguration
Corporate America had already raced to donate big sums to Donald Trump’s record-breaking inaugural fund. Now some of its leaders appear eager to jockey for prominent positions at the inauguration next week.
It’s a new reminder that for some of the nation’s biggest businesses, forging close ties to a president-elect who is promising hard-hitting policies like tariffs is a priority this time around.
Jeff Bezos and Mark Zuckerberg are expected to be on the inauguration dais, according to NBC News, alongside Elon Musk and several cabinet picks.
The presence of Musk isn’t a surprise, given the Tesla chief’s significant support of and huge influence over Trump. But the other tech moguls have only more recently been seen as supporters of the administration. (Indeed, Bezos frequently sparred with Trump during his first presidential term.)
It’s the latest effort by Bezos and Zuckerberg to burnish their Trump credentials. At the DealBook Summit in December, Bezos — whose Amazon has faced scrutiny under the Biden administration and whose Blue Origin is hoping to win government rocket contracts — said that he was “very hopeful” about Trump’s efforts to reduce regulation.
And Zuckerberg recently announced significant changes to Meta’s content moderation policy, including relaxing restrictions on speech seen as protecting groups including L.G.B.T.Q. people that won praise from Trump and other conservatives. On the inauguration front, Zuckerberg is also co-hosting a reception alongside the longtime Trump backers Miriam Adelson, Tilman Fertitta and Todd Ricketts.
Both tech moguls have visited Mar-a-Lago since the election, with Zuckerberg having done so more than once.
Coca-Cola took a different tack. The drinks giant’s C.E.O., James Quincey, gave Trump what an aide called the “first ever Presidential Commemorative Inaugural Diet Coke bottle.”
More broadly, business leaders want a piece of the inauguration action. The Times previously reported that the Trump inaugural fund had surpassed $170 million, a record, and that even major donors have been wait-listed for events.
Others are throwing unofficial events around Washington, including an “Inaugural Crypto Ball” that will feature Snoop Dogg, with tickets starting at $5,000, The Wall Street Journal reports.
It’s a reminder that C.E.O.s are reading the room, and preparing their companies for a president who has proposed creating an “External Revenue Service” to oversee what he has promised will be wide-ranging tariffs.
David Urban, a longtime Trump adviser who’s hosting a pre-inauguration event, told The Journal, “This is the world order, and if we’re going to succeed, we need to get with the world order.”
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In other Trump news: The president-elect is expected to appear via videoconference at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, which starts on Inauguration Day, according to Semafor.
HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING
Investors brace for the latest inflation data. The Consumer Price Index report, due out at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, is expected to show that inflation ticked up last month, most likely because of climbing food and fuel costs. Global bond markets have been rattled as slow progress on slowing inflation has prompted the Fed to slash its forecast for interest rate cuts.
More Trump cabinet picks will appear before the Senate on Wednesday. Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, the choice for secretary of state, is expected to field questions about his views on the Middle East, Ukraine and China, but is expected to be confirmed. Russell Vought, the pick to run the Office of Management and Budget, will most likely be asked about his advocacy for drastically shrinking the federal government, a key Trump objective. And Sean Duffy, the Fox Business host chosen to lead the Transportation Department, will probably face questions on how he would oversee matters including aviation safety and autonomous vehicles, the latter of which is a priority for Elon Musk.
Meta plans to lay off another 5 percent of its employees. Mark Zuckerberg, the tech giant’s C.E.O., told staff members to prepare for “extensive performance-based cuts” as the company braces for “an intense year.” The social media giant faces intense competition in the race to commercialize artificial intelligence.
A new bill would give TikTok a reprieve from a ban in the United States. Senator Ed Markey, Democrat of Massachusetts, said he planned to introduce the Extend the TikTok Deadline Act, which would give the video platform 270 additional days to be divested from its Chinese parent, ByteDance before being blacklisted. It’s the latest effort to buy TikTok time, as the app faces a Jan. 19 deadline set by a law; President-elect Donald Trump has opposed the potential ban as well.
A question of succession
JPMorgan Chase and BlackRock, the giant money manager, just reported earnings. (In short: Both handily beat analyst expectations.)
But the Wall Street giants are likely to face questioning on a particular issue on Wednesday: Which top lieutenants are in line to replace their larger-than-life C.E.O.s, Jamie Dimon and Larry Fink.
Who’s out:
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Daniel Pinto, who had long been Dimon’s right-hand man, said he would officially drop his responsibilities as JPMorgan’s C.O.O. in June and retire at the end of 2026. Jenn Piepszak, the co-C.E.O. of the company’s core commercial and investment bank, has become C.O.O.
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And Mark Wiedman, the head of BlackRock’s global client business and a top contender to succeed Fink, is planning to leave, according to news reports.
What Wall Street is gossiping about JPMorgan: Even in taking the C.O.O. role, JPMorgan said that Piepszak wasn’t interested in succeeding Dimon “at this time.” DealBook hears that while she genuinely appears not to want to pursue the top job, the phrasing covers her in case she changes her mind.
For now, that means the most likely candidates for the top spot are Marianne Lake, the company’s head of consumer and community banking; Troy Rohrbaugh, the other co-head of the commercial and investment bank; and Doug Petno, a co-head of global banking.
The buzz around BlackRock: Wiedman reportedly didn’t want to keep waiting to succeed Fink and is expected to seek a C.E.O. position elsewhere. (So sudden was his departure that he’s forfeiting about $8 million worth of stock options and, according to The Wall Street Journal, he doesn’t have another job lined up yet.)
Fink said on CNBC on Wednesday that Wiedman’s departure had been in the works for some time, with the executive having expressed a desire to leave about six months ago.
Other candidates to take over for Fink include Martin Small, BlackRock’s C.F.O.; Rob Goldstein, the firm’s C.O.O.; and Rachel Lord, the head of international.
But Dimon and Fink aren’t going anywhere just yet. Dimon, 68, said only last year that he might not be in the role in five years. And Fink, 72, said in July that he was working on succession planning: “When I do believe the next generation is ready, I’m out.”
The S.E.C. gets in a final shot at Musk
Another battle between Elon Musk and the S.E.C. erupted on Tuesday, with the agency suing the tech mogul over his 2022 purchase of Twitter.
It’s unclear what happens to the lawsuit once President-elect Donald Trump, who counts Musk as a close ally, takes office. But the agency’s reputation as an independent watchdog may be at stake.
A recap: The S.E.C. accused Musk of violating securities laws in his $44 billion acquisition of the social media company.
The agency said that Musk had failed to disclose his Twitter ownership stake for a pivotal 11-day stretch before revealing his intentions to purchase the company. That breach allowed him to buy up at least $150 million worth of Twitter shares at a lower price — to the detriment of existing shareholders, the agency argues.
The S.E.C. isn’t just seeking to fine Musk. It wants him to pay back the windfall. “That’s unusual,” Ann Lipton, a professor at Tulane Law School, told DealBook.
Alex Spiro, Musk’s lawyer, called the latest action a “sham” and accused the agency of waging a “multiyear campaign of harassment” against him.
The showdown sets up a tough question for the S.E.C. Will Paul Atkins, the president-elect’s widely respected pick to lead the agency, drop the case? Such a move could call the bedrock principle of S.E.C. independence into question.
Jay Clayton, who led the agency during Trump’s first term, earned the respect of the business community for running it in a largely drama-free manner. It was under Clayton that the S.E.C. sued Musk over his statements about taking Tesla private.
Musk, who is set to become Trump’s cost-cutting czar and is expected to have office space in the White House complex, has called for the “comprehensive overhaul” of agencies like the S.E.C. The billionaire said he would also like to see “punitive action against those individuals who have abused their regulatory power for personal and political gain.”
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In related news: The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau sued Capital One, accusing it of cheating its depositors out of $2 billion in interest payments.
THE SPEED READ
Deals
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DAZN, the streaming network backed by the billionaire businessman Len Blavatnik, is closing in on funding from Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund as the kingdom continues to expand its sports footprint. (NYT)
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The Justice Department sued KKR, accusing the investment giant of withholding information during government reviews for several of its deals. KKR filed a countersuit. (Bloomberg)
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OpenAI added Adebayo Ogunlesi, the billionaire co-founder of the infrastructure investment firm Global Infrastructure Partners, to its board. (FT)
Politics and policy
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Business
For uninsured fire victims, the Small Business Administration offers a rare lifeline
As wildfires continue to burn around Southern California, thousands of business owners, homeowners and renters are confronting the daunting challenge of rebuilding from the ashes. For some number of them, the road ahead will be all the more difficult because they didn’t have any or enough insurance to cover their losses. For them, the U.S. Small Business Administration is a possible lifeline.
The SBA, which offers emergency loans to businesses, homeowners, renters and nonprofits, is among the few relief options for those who don’t have insurance or are underinsured. Uninsured Angelenos can also apply for disaster assistance through the Federal Emergency Management Agency, or FEMA.
The current wildfires are ravaging a state that was already in the midst of a home insurance crisis. Thousands of homeowners have lost their insurance in recent years as providers pull out of fire-prone areas and jack up their prices in the face of rising risk.
“For those who are not going to get that insurance payout, this is available,” Small Business Administration head Isabella Casillas Guzman said in an interview during a recent trip to the fire areas. “The loans are intended to fill gaps, and that is very broad.”
About one-third of businesses don’t have insurance and three-quarters are underinsured, Guzman said.
“There will be residual effects around the whole community,” she said. “Insurance will not cover this disaster.”
Businesses, nonprofits and small agricultural cooperatives can apply for an economic injury loan or a physical damage loan through SBA. Homeowners are eligible for physical damage loans. Economic injury loans are intended to help businesses meet ordinary financial demands, while physical damage loans provide funds for repairs and restoration. People can apply online and loans must be repaid within 30 years.
Renters can receive up to $100,000 in assistance, homeowners up to $500,000 and businesses up to $2 million, according to Guzman. Homeowners and renters who cannot get access to credit elsewhere can qualify for loans with a interest rate of 2.5%. The SBA determines an applicant has no credit available elsewhere if they do not have other funds to pay for disaster recovery and cannot borrow from nongovernment sources.
Interest rates for homeowners and renters who do have access to credit elsewhere are just over 5%. Loans for businesses could come with interest rates of 4% or 8% depending on whether the business has other credit options.
An applicant must show they are able to repay their loan and have a credit history acceptable to the SBA in order to be approved. The loans became available following President Biden’s declaration of a major disaster in California.
“We’ve already received hundreds of applications from individuals and businesses interested in exploring additional support,” Guzman said. “We know the economic disruption may not be contained to the footprint of any evacuation zones or power outages.”
People who don’t have insurance or whose insurance doesn’t cover the entirety of their losses are eligible for loans, Guzman said. While many will use the funds to start from scratch after losing their property to the fires, businesses that are still standing can also apply for support to cover lost revenue.
Guzman was not able to estimate the total value of loans they expect to offer in California but said the organization is on solid financial footing after temporarily running out of funds in October.
“Funding has been replenished by Congress, and we expect to be able to coordinate closely with Congress,” Guzman said. “We’re fully funded and in a good position to provide support.”
Business
Cookies, Cocktails and Mushrooms on the Menu as Justices Hear Bank Fraud Case
In a lively Supreme Court argument on Tuesday that included references to cookies, cocktails and toxic mushrooms, the justices tried to find the line between misleading statements and outright lies in the case of a Chicago politician convicted of making false statements to bank regulators.
The case concerned Patrick Daley Thompson, a former Chicago alderman who is the grandson of one former mayor, Richard J. Daley, and the nephew of another, Richard M. Daley. He conceded that he had misled the regulators but said his statements fell short of the outright falsehoods he said were required to make them criminal.
The justices peppered the lawyers with colorful questions that tried to tease out the difference between false and misleading statements.
Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. asked whether a motorist pulled over on suspicion of driving while impaired said something false by stating that he had had one cocktail while omitting that he had also drunk four glasses of wine.
Caroline A. Flynn, a lawyer for the federal government, said that a jury could find the statement to be false because “the officer was asking for a complete account of how much the person had had to drink.”
Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson asked about a child who admitted to eating three cookies when she had consumed 10.
Ms. Flynn said context mattered.
“If the mom had said, ‘Did you eat all the cookies,’ or ‘how many cookies did you eat,’ and the child says, ‘I ate three cookies’ when she ate 10, that’s a false statement,” Ms. Flynn said. “But, if the mom says, ‘Did you eat any cookies,’ and the child says three, that’s not an understatement in response to a specific numerical inquiry.”
Justice Sonia Sotomayor asked whether it was false to label toxic mushrooms as “a hundred percent natural.” Ms. Flynn did not give a direct response.
The case before the court, Thompson v. United States, No. 23-1095, started when Mr. Thompson took out three loans from Washington Federal Bank for Savings between 2011 and 2014. He used the first, for $110,000, to finance a law firm. He used the next loan, for $20,000, to pay a tax bill. He used the third, for $89,000, to repay a debt to another bank.
He made a single payment on the loans, for $390 in 2012. The bank, which did not press him for further payments, went under in 2017.
When the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and a loan servicer it had hired sought repayment of the loans plus interest, amounting to about $270,000, Mr. Thompson told them he had borrowed $110,000, which was true in a narrow sense but incomplete.
After negotiations, Mr. Thompson in 2018 paid back the principal but not the interest. More than two years later, federal prosecutors charged him with violating a law making it a crime to give “any false statement or report” to influence the F.D.I.C.
He was convicted and ordered to repay the interest, amounting to about $50,000. He served four months in prison.
Chris C. Gair, a lawyer for Mr. Thompson, said his client’s statements were accurate in context, an assertion that met with skepticism. Justice Elena Kagan noted that the jury had found the statements were false and that a ruling in Mr. Thompson’s favor would require a court to rule that no reasonable juror could have come to that conclusion.
Justices Neil M. Gorsuch and Brett M. Kavanaugh said that issue was not before the court, which had agreed to decide the legal question of whether the federal law, as a general matter, covered misleading statements. Lower courts, they said, could decide whether Mr. Thompson had been properly convicted.
Justice Samuel A. Alito Jr. asked for an example of a misleading statement that was not false. Mr. Gair, who was presenting his first Supreme Court argument, responded by talking about himself.
“If I go back and change my website and say ‘40 years of litigation experience’ and then in bold caps say ‘Supreme Court advocate,’” he said, “that would be, after today, a true statement. It would be misleading to anybody who was thinking about whether to hire me.”
Justice Alito said such a statement was, at most, mildly misleading. But Justice Kagan was impressed.
“Well, it is, though, the humblest answer I’ve ever heard from the Supreme Court podium,” she said, to laughter. “So good show on that one.”
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