Business
Fitch’s Warning About America’s Fiscal Future
The eventual cost of a U.S. downgrade
Markets are pointing down this morning after Fitch Ratings downgraded the United States’ AAA long-term credit rating, citing the “steady deterioration in standards of governance over the last 20 years” that have eroded confidence in fiscal management.
It’s unlikely that the move — only the second downgrade in American history — will dent investor appetite for Treasury notes. But the decision is another sign that Wall Street is worried about political chaos, including brinkmanship over the debt limit that is becoming entrenched in Washington.
Fitch cited “repeated debt-limit political standoffs and last-minute resolutions” in cutting the rating to AA+. The move came two months after Washington narrowly avoided a U.S. default, following a prolonged argument over the debt ceiling. The agency also cited rising federal deficits and increased spending on Social Security and Medicare.
Yet the U.S. economy is performing strongly, with many analysts expecting the country to avoid a recession as it recovers from rapid inflation and the highest interest rates in decades. (That said, some on Wall Street remain skeptical that the country is headed for a so-called soft landing.) Fitch’s own model shows the U.S. economy deteriorating during the Trump administration and recovering under President Biden.
The Biden administration and others pushed back. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen called the downgrade “arbitrary,” noting that Fitch had shown U.S. governance deteriorating as far back as 2018 but hadn’t moved until now. “The American economy is fundamentally strong,” she added.
Paul Krugman, the Times Opinion columnist and Nobel laureate, said the move was “bizarre.” And Larry Summers, the former Treasury secretary, told Bloomberg, “I can’t imagine any serious credit analyst is going to give this weight.”
What comes next? Some investors who are required to put money only in AAA-rated securities may need to look elsewhere — though the number of other countries that still have the top rating is dwindling — potentially nudging up interest rates. But most economists believe that what the Fed does at its next rate-setting meeting will have a bigger effect on U.S. borrowing costs.
The wider significance is the growing concern about political polarization, particularly over federal spending. The repeated standoffs in Washington threaten to cause more impasse over the debt limit and, potentially as soon as this fall, another government shutdown.
Future downgrades by Fitch or other agencies could eventually threaten America’s fiscal health. But it’s unclear that this one will change the thinking in Washington: “Our base case expectation is that Fitch will be pilloried by most members of Congress,” Henrietta Treyz, director of macroeconomic policy research at Veda Partners, told The Times.
HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING
Hollywood writers and studios move to restart talks. The Writers Guild of America told screenwriters that the studios’ negotiator had requested a meeting on Friday “ to discuss negotiations” to resolve a three-month standoff. A meeting would be the first sign of movement after talks fell apart in early May, leading to a nearly complete shutdown of movie and TV production.
Arm reportedly seeks to be valued at as much as $70 billion in its I.P.O. The chip design giant, which is owned by SoftBank, is aiming to go public in New York as soon as next month, according to Bloomberg, in one of the most eagerly anticipated initial stock sales of the year. The company is hoping that soaring interest in A.I. chips will propel interest in its offering.
Starbucks’s latest results paint a mixed picture of the economy. The coffee chain said that its sales in the most recent quarter were up, thanks to the popularity of cold espresso and other drinks, but its profits were under pressure from increased wages and costs for ingredients. Same-store sales in China, Starbucks’s biggest international market, were up 46 percent despite that country’s economic struggles.
U.S. consumers can no longer buy most incandescent light bulbs. Energy efficiency rules that took effect yesterday mean that most bulbs based on technology that Thomas Edison patented in the 1800s are now off-limits. That is expected to propel sales of LED bulbs, but the move has drawn pushback from Republicans.
What to know about the Trump indictment
The indictment of Donald Trump over his efforts to overturn the 2020 election thrusts the nation into extraordinary territory: A former president who is dominating the race for the Republican nomination in 2024 faces federal charges for trying to subvert democracy, adding to his string of legal troubles.
Here’s what you need to know.
Mr. Trump faces four counts: a conspiracy to violate civil rights, a conspiracy to defraud the government, the corrupt obstruction of an official proceeding and a conspiracy to carry out such obstruction. He has been summoned to appear in a Washington federal court tomorrow and has denounced the indictment.
Mr. Trump now faces an array of state and federal charges, with these being possibly the most serious. And it means that the former president may face at least three criminal trials next year.
The additional indictment will weigh on Trump’s 2024 campaign, given how he has used his political action committee to help pay the legal costs for himself and some associates.
It also raises questions about whether donors would be willing to pay for his bills, though the latest Republican poll shows that Trump appears to have unshakable control over at least one-third of the G.O.P. voting electorate.
Moreover, Mr. Trump is using the latest charges as a fund-raising tool: His campaign website called the new indictment “nothing but an egregious act of Election Interference and a final act of desperation” from President Biden, before asking people to give money.
His rivals are in a bind. Ron DeSantis’s campaign has tried to score political points by noting Trump’s troubles, but the Florida governor hasn’t seen any improvement in his standings in the polls or with donors. Some top Republican donors have begun backing away, The Times reports.
At least one G.O.P. contender appears to be gaining steam, however: Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina now counts as supporters financiers like Marc Rowan of Apollo and Stanley Druckenmiller of Duquesne Capital Management. They will host a fund-raiser for Mr. Scott next week in the Hamptons.
Whether that signals the start of a shift to Scott as the clear Trump alternative — and whether that’s enough to overcome the former president’s formidable lead — remains to be seen.
The A.I.-media divide
Artificial intelligence has divided media companies. Some moguls, like IAC’s Barry Diller, have threatened to sue A.I. companies for using copyrighted content to train their large language models, and News Corp has said it wants compensation for its content being used in similar ways. But other news organizations, like The Associated Press, have made agreements to use the technology in their journalism.
Ziff Davis, the owner of outlets including Mashable, PC Magazine and IGN, has struck a $25 million deal with the A.I. company Xyla that puts it in the latter camp, The Times’s Ben Mullin reports for DealBook.
Ziff Davis will use OpenEvidence, a tool developed by Xyla that allows doctors to stay up-to-date on the latest medical research by parsing tens of millions of medical journals. Visitors to Ziff Davis’s health-related websites, including MedPage Today, will get access to OpenEvidence for free, and the media company is betting that it will be able to sell more advertising by attracting more doctors.
Ziff Davis is buying a minority stake in Xyla in a cash-and-stock deal. “I know that many digital media companies are seemingly apprehensive about A.I.,” said Vivek Shah, the C.E.O. of Ziff Davis, “but we’re embracing the opportunity full-on.”
Daniel Nadler, Xyla’s founder, will advise Ziff Davis on its A.I. efforts, and Mr. Shah said he believed that the technology can augment other Ziff Davis businesses. These include Speedtest, an app that allows users to test their data connections. The app has a vast reservoir of information on wireless connectivity that could be mined to help data providers improve their network performance.
Many media executives are taking a more cautious approach. Big newspaper and magazine publishers, including The Times, are reportedly discussing how to collectively find ways to protect themselves from the rise of generative A.I.
Mr. Shah said that those problems will be resolved, and that media companies should find moneymaking opportunities in the meantime. “That’ll have to get sorted out, but it’s going to take some time,” he said.
Tiger Woods steps up
Tiger Woods has moved to center stage in a battle for the future of golf. The PGA Tour said yesterday that it had agreed to add the superstar to its board, a day after more than 40 players demanded an overhaul of how the sport is run following a tentative deal involving the Saudi-backed LIV Golf league.
The PGA Tour may be looking to rectify a big misstep: failing to first get player support. But the appointment of Woods means players will hold six of the board seats, outnumbering the five independent directors. Alongside a string of other concessions by Jay Monahan, the PGA Tour’s commissioner, the new arrangement adds another set of hurdles to closing the blockbuster deal.
The players sent a letter to Monahan calling for significant governance changes. They said that the secret negotiations had contravened the tour’s core principle that the tour should be committed to players and run by them. Mr. Monahan and two PGA Tour directors, Piper Sandler’s Jimmy Dunne and Wachtell Lipton’s Ed Herlihy, crafted the agreement without informing most other board members, and many players found out about it only when it became public. Any agreement will now require the players’ approval.
An adviser to the players will also have more say. Colin Neville, of the merchant bank Raine, will be allowed to review documents and the terms of the deal. Mr. Neville previously worked on the Premier Golf League, a Saudi-supported project to compete with Europe’s main professional golf tour. After that effort fizzled, he continued to informally advise PGA Tour players.
Will the concessions be enough? What Mr. Woods, one of the richest and best known players in the world, wants out of a final agreement could differ from what other tour professionals want. (Recall Michael Jordan’s friction with other players during the 2011 N.B.A. lockout.)
And separate obstacles, including regulatory scrutiny and criticism from LIV players, like Phil Mickelson, remain. The deal itself is just a framework, and one of its few binding provisions — a promise not to poach each other’s players — was scrapped last month.
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Elon Musk, Mark Zuckerberg and Jeff Bezos to Attend Trump’s Inauguration
Bezos, Zuckerberg and Coke at the inauguration
Corporate America had already raced to donate big sums to Donald Trump’s record-breaking inaugural fund. Now some of its leaders appear eager to jockey for prominent positions at the inauguration next week.
It’s a new reminder that for some of the nation’s biggest businesses, forging close ties to a president-elect who is promising hard-hitting policies like tariffs is a priority this time around.
Jeff Bezos and Mark Zuckerberg are expected to be on the inauguration dais, according to NBC News, alongside Elon Musk and several cabinet picks.
The presence of Musk isn’t a surprise, given the Tesla chief’s significant support of and huge influence over Trump. But the other tech moguls have only more recently been seen as supporters of the administration. (Indeed, Bezos frequently sparred with Trump during his first presidential term.)
It’s the latest effort by Bezos and Zuckerberg to burnish their Trump credentials. At the DealBook Summit in December, Bezos — whose Amazon has faced scrutiny under the Biden administration and whose Blue Origin is hoping to win government rocket contracts — said that he was “very hopeful” about Trump’s efforts to reduce regulation.
And Zuckerberg recently announced significant changes to Meta’s content moderation policy, including relaxing restrictions on speech seen as protecting groups including L.G.B.T.Q. people that won praise from Trump and other conservatives. On the inauguration front, Zuckerberg is also co-hosting a reception alongside the longtime Trump backers Miriam Adelson, Tilman Fertitta and Todd Ricketts.
Both tech moguls have visited Mar-a-Lago since the election, with Zuckerberg having done so more than once.
Coca-Cola took a different tack. The drinks giant’s C.E.O., James Quincey, gave Trump what an aide called the “first ever Presidential Commemorative Inaugural Diet Coke bottle.”
More broadly, business leaders want a piece of the inauguration action. The Times previously reported that the Trump inaugural fund had surpassed $170 million, a record, and that even major donors have been wait-listed for events.
Others are throwing unofficial events around Washington, including an “Inaugural Crypto Ball” that will feature Snoop Dogg, with tickets starting at $5,000, The Wall Street Journal reports.
It’s a reminder that C.E.O.s are reading the room, and preparing their companies for a president who has proposed creating an “External Revenue Service” to oversee what he has promised will be wide-ranging tariffs.
David Urban, a longtime Trump adviser who’s hosting a pre-inauguration event, told The Journal, “This is the world order, and if we’re going to succeed, we need to get with the world order.”
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In other Trump news: The president-elect is expected to appear via videoconference at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, which starts on Inauguration Day, according to Semafor.
HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING
Investors brace for the latest inflation data. The Consumer Price Index report, due out at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, is expected to show that inflation ticked up last month, most likely because of climbing food and fuel costs. Global bond markets have been rattled as slow progress on slowing inflation has prompted the Fed to slash its forecast for interest rate cuts.
More Trump cabinet picks will appear before the Senate on Wednesday. Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, the choice for secretary of state, is expected to field questions about his views on the Middle East, Ukraine and China, but is expected to be confirmed. Russell Vought, the pick to run the Office of Management and Budget, will most likely be asked about his advocacy for drastically shrinking the federal government, a key Trump objective. And Sean Duffy, the Fox Business host chosen to lead the Transportation Department, will probably face questions on how he would oversee matters including aviation safety and autonomous vehicles, the latter of which is a priority for Elon Musk.
Meta plans to lay off another 5 percent of its employees. Mark Zuckerberg, the tech giant’s C.E.O., told staff members to prepare for “extensive performance-based cuts” as the company braces for “an intense year.” The social media giant faces intense competition in the race to commercialize artificial intelligence.
A new bill would give TikTok a reprieve from a ban in the United States. Senator Ed Markey, Democrat of Massachusetts, said he planned to introduce the Extend the TikTok Deadline Act, which would give the video platform 270 additional days to be divested from its Chinese parent, ByteDance before being blacklisted. It’s the latest effort to buy TikTok time, as the app faces a Jan. 19 deadline set by a law; President-elect Donald Trump has opposed the potential ban as well.
A question of succession
JPMorgan Chase and BlackRock, the giant money manager, just reported earnings. (In short: Both handily beat analyst expectations.)
But the Wall Street giants are likely to face questioning on a particular issue on Wednesday: Which top lieutenants are in line to replace their larger-than-life C.E.O.s, Jamie Dimon and Larry Fink.
Who’s out:
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Daniel Pinto, who had long been Dimon’s right-hand man, said he would officially drop his responsibilities as JPMorgan’s C.O.O. in June and retire at the end of 2026. Jenn Piepszak, the co-C.E.O. of the company’s core commercial and investment bank, has become C.O.O.
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And Mark Wiedman, the head of BlackRock’s global client business and a top contender to succeed Fink, is planning to leave, according to news reports.
What Wall Street is gossiping about JPMorgan: Even in taking the C.O.O. role, JPMorgan said that Piepszak wasn’t interested in succeeding Dimon “at this time.” DealBook hears that while she genuinely appears not to want to pursue the top job, the phrasing covers her in case she changes her mind.
For now, that means the most likely candidates for the top spot are Marianne Lake, the company’s head of consumer and community banking; Troy Rohrbaugh, the other co-head of the commercial and investment bank; and Doug Petno, a co-head of global banking.
The buzz around BlackRock: Wiedman reportedly didn’t want to keep waiting to succeed Fink and is expected to seek a C.E.O. position elsewhere. (So sudden was his departure that he’s forfeiting about $8 million worth of stock options and, according to The Wall Street Journal, he doesn’t have another job lined up yet.)
Fink said on CNBC on Wednesday that Wiedman’s departure had been in the works for some time, with the executive having expressed a desire to leave about six months ago.
Other candidates to take over for Fink include Martin Small, BlackRock’s C.F.O.; Rob Goldstein, the firm’s C.O.O.; and Rachel Lord, the head of international.
But Dimon and Fink aren’t going anywhere just yet. Dimon, 68, said only last year that he might not be in the role in five years. And Fink, 72, said in July that he was working on succession planning: “When I do believe the next generation is ready, I’m out.”
The S.E.C. gets in a final shot at Musk
Another battle between Elon Musk and the S.E.C. erupted on Tuesday, with the agency suing the tech mogul over his 2022 purchase of Twitter.
It’s unclear what happens to the lawsuit once President-elect Donald Trump, who counts Musk as a close ally, takes office. But the agency’s reputation as an independent watchdog may be at stake.
A recap: The S.E.C. accused Musk of violating securities laws in his $44 billion acquisition of the social media company.
The agency said that Musk had failed to disclose his Twitter ownership stake for a pivotal 11-day stretch before revealing his intentions to purchase the company. That breach allowed him to buy up at least $150 million worth of Twitter shares at a lower price — to the detriment of existing shareholders, the agency argues.
The S.E.C. isn’t just seeking to fine Musk. It wants him to pay back the windfall. “That’s unusual,” Ann Lipton, a professor at Tulane Law School, told DealBook.
Alex Spiro, Musk’s lawyer, called the latest action a “sham” and accused the agency of waging a “multiyear campaign of harassment” against him.
The showdown sets up a tough question for the S.E.C. Will Paul Atkins, the president-elect’s widely respected pick to lead the agency, drop the case? Such a move could call the bedrock principle of S.E.C. independence into question.
Jay Clayton, who led the agency during Trump’s first term, earned the respect of the business community for running it in a largely drama-free manner. It was under Clayton that the S.E.C. sued Musk over his statements about taking Tesla private.
Musk, who is set to become Trump’s cost-cutting czar and is expected to have office space in the White House complex, has called for the “comprehensive overhaul” of agencies like the S.E.C. The billionaire said he would also like to see “punitive action against those individuals who have abused their regulatory power for personal and political gain.”
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In related news: The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau sued Capital One, accusing it of cheating its depositors out of $2 billion in interest payments.
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Deals
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DAZN, the streaming network backed by the billionaire businessman Len Blavatnik, is closing in on funding from Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund as the kingdom continues to expand its sports footprint. (NYT)
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The Justice Department sued KKR, accusing the investment giant of withholding information during government reviews for several of its deals. KKR filed a countersuit. (Bloomberg)
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OpenAI added Adebayo Ogunlesi, the billionaire co-founder of the infrastructure investment firm Global Infrastructure Partners, to its board. (FT)
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Business
For uninsured fire victims, the Small Business Administration offers a rare lifeline
As wildfires continue to burn around Southern California, thousands of business owners, homeowners and renters are confronting the daunting challenge of rebuilding from the ashes. For some number of them, the road ahead will be all the more difficult because they didn’t have any or enough insurance to cover their losses. For them, the U.S. Small Business Administration is a possible lifeline.
The SBA, which offers emergency loans to businesses, homeowners, renters and nonprofits, is among the few relief options for those who don’t have insurance or are underinsured. Uninsured Angelenos can also apply for disaster assistance through the Federal Emergency Management Agency, or FEMA.
The current wildfires are ravaging a state that was already in the midst of a home insurance crisis. Thousands of homeowners have lost their insurance in recent years as providers pull out of fire-prone areas and jack up their prices in the face of rising risk.
“For those who are not going to get that insurance payout, this is available,” Small Business Administration head Isabella Casillas Guzman said in an interview during a recent trip to the fire areas. “The loans are intended to fill gaps, and that is very broad.”
About one-third of businesses don’t have insurance and three-quarters are underinsured, Guzman said.
“There will be residual effects around the whole community,” she said. “Insurance will not cover this disaster.”
Businesses, nonprofits and small agricultural cooperatives can apply for an economic injury loan or a physical damage loan through SBA. Homeowners are eligible for physical damage loans. Economic injury loans are intended to help businesses meet ordinary financial demands, while physical damage loans provide funds for repairs and restoration. People can apply online and loans must be repaid within 30 years.
Renters can receive up to $100,000 in assistance, homeowners up to $500,000 and businesses up to $2 million, according to Guzman. Homeowners and renters who cannot get access to credit elsewhere can qualify for loans with a interest rate of 2.5%. The SBA determines an applicant has no credit available elsewhere if they do not have other funds to pay for disaster recovery and cannot borrow from nongovernment sources.
Interest rates for homeowners and renters who do have access to credit elsewhere are just over 5%. Loans for businesses could come with interest rates of 4% or 8% depending on whether the business has other credit options.
An applicant must show they are able to repay their loan and have a credit history acceptable to the SBA in order to be approved. The loans became available following President Biden’s declaration of a major disaster in California.
“We’ve already received hundreds of applications from individuals and businesses interested in exploring additional support,” Guzman said. “We know the economic disruption may not be contained to the footprint of any evacuation zones or power outages.”
People who don’t have insurance or whose insurance doesn’t cover the entirety of their losses are eligible for loans, Guzman said. While many will use the funds to start from scratch after losing their property to the fires, businesses that are still standing can also apply for support to cover lost revenue.
Guzman was not able to estimate the total value of loans they expect to offer in California but said the organization is on solid financial footing after temporarily running out of funds in October.
“Funding has been replenished by Congress, and we expect to be able to coordinate closely with Congress,” Guzman said. “We’re fully funded and in a good position to provide support.”
Business
Cookies, Cocktails and Mushrooms on the Menu as Justices Hear Bank Fraud Case
In a lively Supreme Court argument on Tuesday that included references to cookies, cocktails and toxic mushrooms, the justices tried to find the line between misleading statements and outright lies in the case of a Chicago politician convicted of making false statements to bank regulators.
The case concerned Patrick Daley Thompson, a former Chicago alderman who is the grandson of one former mayor, Richard J. Daley, and the nephew of another, Richard M. Daley. He conceded that he had misled the regulators but said his statements fell short of the outright falsehoods he said were required to make them criminal.
The justices peppered the lawyers with colorful questions that tried to tease out the difference between false and misleading statements.
Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. asked whether a motorist pulled over on suspicion of driving while impaired said something false by stating that he had had one cocktail while omitting that he had also drunk four glasses of wine.
Caroline A. Flynn, a lawyer for the federal government, said that a jury could find the statement to be false because “the officer was asking for a complete account of how much the person had had to drink.”
Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson asked about a child who admitted to eating three cookies when she had consumed 10.
Ms. Flynn said context mattered.
“If the mom had said, ‘Did you eat all the cookies,’ or ‘how many cookies did you eat,’ and the child says, ‘I ate three cookies’ when she ate 10, that’s a false statement,” Ms. Flynn said. “But, if the mom says, ‘Did you eat any cookies,’ and the child says three, that’s not an understatement in response to a specific numerical inquiry.”
Justice Sonia Sotomayor asked whether it was false to label toxic mushrooms as “a hundred percent natural.” Ms. Flynn did not give a direct response.
The case before the court, Thompson v. United States, No. 23-1095, started when Mr. Thompson took out three loans from Washington Federal Bank for Savings between 2011 and 2014. He used the first, for $110,000, to finance a law firm. He used the next loan, for $20,000, to pay a tax bill. He used the third, for $89,000, to repay a debt to another bank.
He made a single payment on the loans, for $390 in 2012. The bank, which did not press him for further payments, went under in 2017.
When the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and a loan servicer it had hired sought repayment of the loans plus interest, amounting to about $270,000, Mr. Thompson told them he had borrowed $110,000, which was true in a narrow sense but incomplete.
After negotiations, Mr. Thompson in 2018 paid back the principal but not the interest. More than two years later, federal prosecutors charged him with violating a law making it a crime to give “any false statement or report” to influence the F.D.I.C.
He was convicted and ordered to repay the interest, amounting to about $50,000. He served four months in prison.
Chris C. Gair, a lawyer for Mr. Thompson, said his client’s statements were accurate in context, an assertion that met with skepticism. Justice Elena Kagan noted that the jury had found the statements were false and that a ruling in Mr. Thompson’s favor would require a court to rule that no reasonable juror could have come to that conclusion.
Justices Neil M. Gorsuch and Brett M. Kavanaugh said that issue was not before the court, which had agreed to decide the legal question of whether the federal law, as a general matter, covered misleading statements. Lower courts, they said, could decide whether Mr. Thompson had been properly convicted.
Justice Samuel A. Alito Jr. asked for an example of a misleading statement that was not false. Mr. Gair, who was presenting his first Supreme Court argument, responded by talking about himself.
“If I go back and change my website and say ‘40 years of litigation experience’ and then in bold caps say ‘Supreme Court advocate,’” he said, “that would be, after today, a true statement. It would be misleading to anybody who was thinking about whether to hire me.”
Justice Alito said such a statement was, at most, mildly misleading. But Justice Kagan was impressed.
“Well, it is, though, the humblest answer I’ve ever heard from the Supreme Court podium,” she said, to laughter. “So good show on that one.”
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