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‘A Beautiful Place That Has a Dragon’: Where Hurricane Risk Meets Booming Growth

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‘A Beautiful Place That Has a Dragon’: Where Hurricane Risk Meets Booming Growth

Hurricanes have always struck the shores of the United States.

But in recent decades, the combination of climate change and a growing coastal population has made them far more damaging — particularly in one corner of the Atlantic coast.

These two metros, known for their striking coastlines, have been regularly battered by hurricanes this century.

They also have something else in common: Both are among the fastest-growing coastal metros in the United States since 2000.

The hurricanes keep coming, and the people, too: The fastest-growing places along the Atlantic coast this century are also among the most hurricane-prone.

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Between 2016 and 2022, the five hurricanes that hit the Carolinas cost the two states over $33 billion in damages in current dollars, displaced hundreds of thousands of people and led to the deaths of more than 90, government data shows.

There’s every reason to expect more damage in coming years: A warming climate adds moisture to the air, unlocking the potential for wetter and more powerful storms. And rising sea levels make storm surges more damaging and coastal flooding more frequent.

And the newcomers will keep coming: One 2022 study projected that by 2050, population growth will increase the number of Americans exposed to flooding nearly four times as much as climate change will alone.

Simply put, there are many more people living along the paths of hurricanes than ever before. And this booming coastal population is, by many accounts, a larger contributor to rising hurricane risks than climate change.

“It’s always climate change plus something, and we’re moving more people into harm’s way than out,” said Kathie Dello, North Carolina’s state climatologist.

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Kure Beach, N.C., at low tide.

Local officials say they are struggling to keep up with the growth. They can try to manage the floodplain, communicate the risks, regulate construction and prepare for disasters. But the one thing they can’t seem to do is stop people from moving here.

Many retirees are drawn to the Carolinas’ beaches and waterways, moderate temperatures and low taxes. Between 1990 and 2020, the number of people 65 and older grew by nearly 450 percent combined in Horry County, S.C., and adjoining Brunswick County, N.C.

When Gail Hart moved from Arizona to retire in Wilmington, N.C., in 2017, she hadn’t considered the hurricane risk. “I wanted to be near a beach,” she said. “I wanted a community.”

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Gail Hart with her dog Tula in the Del Webb retirement community in Wilmington, N.C.

The next year, Hurricane Florence made landfall in the Wilmington metro area. Many neighborhoods flooded. In some places, three feet of water entered homes. Emergency officials rescued over a thousand residents.

Ms. Hart evacuated. She was fortunate: Her home suffered only minor wind damage. But the experience changed her view of living there. She installed storm shutters and a generator, and bought flood insurance. And yet, like so many others, she has stayed despite the storm risks.

“I don’t let it affect my life unless there’s a hurricane coming,” she said.

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Ms. Hart is far from alone. When she arrived, there were about a dozen homes in her retirement community. Today there are over 500.

In a retirement community being built across the road, acres of pine forests have been cleared to develop homes along the Cape Fear River.

New homes on the banks of the Cape Fear River in Wilmington, N.C.

Nearby, marshland with ghost forests of dead trees was up for sale as “riverfront condo land.”

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Ghost forests are what remains of woodlands when saltwater poisons the roots of trees.

Wilmington is part of New Hanover County, the most densely populated of the state’s coastal counties. Nearly 40 percent of its homes risk being severely affected by flooding in the next 30 years, according to the First Street Foundation.

“There’s just not a lot of area left,” said Steven Still, director of emergency services for the county. “So you’re developing in the fringe areas.”

The escalating costs of storms raise a difficult question for these growing coastal communities: How do you balance growth with safety?

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The combination of climate change and development in risky areas is making it “a huge challenge” to keep residents safe, said Amanda Martin, North Carolina’s chief resilience officer.

Hurricanes near U.S. counties, 1950-2022

Coastal Carolina counties have some of the highest hurricane frequencies in the country.

Source: Upshot analysis of the National Hurricane Center’s Atlantic hurricane database

The map shows the number of Atlantic hurricanes whose paths came within 60 nautical miles (69 miles) of each county.

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It’s not just that people are moving to hurricane-prone areas. The growth itself can make flooding worse. Cutting down trees and paving over wetlands takes away open land that would otherwise absorb rainfall.

“We just seem to be going through this vicious cycle that is becoming more vicious with the amount of people and infrastructure we put in these areas,” Mr. Still said.

Federal law permits people to build in flood zones, so long as they meet certain minimum standards. In return, the government offers them flood insurance through a federal program that is over $20 billion in debt — largely due to escalating hurricane damages.

While the National Flood Insurance Program was originally intended to discourage floodplain development, in practice it has done the opposite by removing a lot of the financial risk involved, said Jenny Brennan, a climate analyst at the Southern Environmental Law Center.

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States have a few options to discourage people from building in flood zones. They can create more stringent building requirements, or they can buy up and preserve undeveloped land. But these measures are expensive, and rely on political will or the willingness of landowners to sell.

One way that states can move residents out of harm’s way is by offering to buy out their homes and permanently converting that land to open space. But a study this year found that for every home bought out in North Carolina between 1996 and 2017, more than 10 new ones were built in the state’s floodplains.

The growth also makes it more difficult to evacuate when storms strike. In these booming coastal counties, residents and local officials say that roads and bridges are not keeping pace with the growth.

“Our biggest problem is our infrastructures not being able to keep up,” said David McIntire, the deputy director of emergency management for Brunswick County, the fastest-growing coastal county in North Carolina this century and part of the Wilmington metro.

The state has undertaken a multiyear project to add two lanes to Highway 211, the main evacuation route for the region. Mr. McIntire said the state and local departments were “having to play catch-up” after years of failing to plan ahead.

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In neighboring New Hanover County, his counterpart Mr. Still is grappling with a shortage of affordable housing, which he said was making it “exponentially difficult” to shelter people displaced by disasters.

After a disaster, the surge in demand for short-term housing drives up already high rents. Poorer residents often rely on the state and local governments for assistance with evacuation and housing.

The problem lies in where to house them. “If there is zero housing availability in the community right now,” Mr. Still said, “where do you put 100,000 people?”

The housing crunch is one of many tensions playing out between wealthy coastal communities and those who live nearby.

April O’Leary lives in Conway, S.C., an inland city in Horry County, a half-hour drive from Myrtle Beach.

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The county makes up the Myrtle Beach metro area, which was the fastest-growing coastal metro nationally between 2000 and 2020 and is one of the fastest-growing places in the country annually. And the growth is projected to continue.

Horry County is large and flat: Nearly a quarter of its land lies within a floodplain.

In inland towns like Conway, S.C., floodwaters can stay long after a hurricane is gone.

After Hurricane Florence made landfall, it took about a week for the rainwater to flow down to Conway. But the water stayed for over a week.

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“It sits for a while and it just destroys everything,” Ms. O’Leary said.

Water entered her home, flooding the first floor and a bedroom. Her husband and son evacuated to Myrtle Beach, while she stayed for a few days to document the floods.

Afterward, there were large piles of debris lining street after street in her neighborhood, filled with ruined flooring, kitchen cabinets and bathroom fixtures.

When her son’s elementary school reopened and he saw the devastation in the neighborhood, she said he stopped smiling and became quieter for months.

Down the street from April O’Leary’s home, in Conway, S.C., the flood water line from Hurricane Florence was still visible.

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After the flooding, Ms. O’Leary founded Horry County Rising, a political organization that campaigned for the county to adopt stricter regulations for floodplain construction. Much of the flooding in the Carolinas during Hurricane Florence occurred outside of federal flood zones, where few people have flood insurance or homes that are protected from flooding.

In 2021, the county expanded its flood zone boundaries to include places that flooded during Hurricane Florence. And it required new homes built there to have their lowest floor three feet above the high water mark.

The changes applied to all unincorporated parts of the county. But they faced pushback from local developers because of raised building costs. The county recently voted to lower the height requirements to two feet, after legal pressure from a developer.

The flooding and growth also affect rural communities that have been rooted in the Carolinas for generations. In Bucksport, S.C., a small inland town in Horry County, Kevin Mishoe is a third-generation farmer and former chair of the Association for the Betterment of Bucksport.

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He said the newer building codes would pay dividends in future floods, but they would also make home ownership far more expensive for people in lower-income communities like Bucksport.

Bucksport sits between two major rivers, nestled against wetlands and tidal forests. Mr. Mishoe lives with his wife in a mobile home that flooded during Hurricane Matthew in 2016 and Hurricane Florence in 2018.

Gina and Kevin Mishoe outside their home in Bucksport, S.C.

Mr. Mishoe says he believes banks are denying loans to residents because of their location in a floodplain, a phenomenon he called “bluelining.”

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Meanwhile, he said, locals are being “bombarded” with offers from developers and private equity companies to buy their land.

“All of a sudden land that you’re telling us is almost worthless because you’re in a flood zone, everybody’s trying to buy,” he said.

The area is considered prime real estate because of its access to water. This year, the county expressed support for a highway that would connect Myrtle Beach to inland parts of the county. The highway is expected to cut through Bucksport and its adjoining wetlands, and bring added development to the region.

The town’s residents emphatically do not want to sell their land, Mr. Mishoe said. Their ancestors have held on to this land for generations, and they intend to stay.

Bucksport’s flooding problem began in 2015. But there are coastal Carolina communities that have endured regular hurricanes for over a century.

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Karen Willis Amspacher lives on Harkers Island in Carteret County, N.C. — one of the most hurricane-prone counties in the country.

The island is part of a string of low-lying rural communities near the Outer Banks that locals call Down East. The communities are connected by Highway 70, a dredged road that floods several times a year.

Highway 70 outside Stacy, N.C., in Carteret County.

Ms. Amspacher is a fifth-generation resident of the island and the director of the Core Sound Waterfowl Museum. There are a lot of newer residents, she said, moving into large houses on stilts, with generators and flood insurance. Some houses are second homes or vacation properties.

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The construction boom has driven up costs for locals. “The fear and threat of sea level rise or storms doesn’t hinder any of it,” she said.

A raised home under construction on Harkers Island, N.C.

A new bridge under construction earlier this year will connect Harkers Island to the mainland, to improve evacuations during hurricanes.

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While the new homes may be safer, Ms. Amspacher said, many of the newcomers are isolated from the emotional trauma that her community experiences during a hurricane.

“This is a piece of property to them,” she said. “It’s not their family inheritance. It’s not their home. It’s not where they hope their children will stay and grow up.”

Ms. Amspacher has had to evacuate her home in three past hurricanes. But she’s not planning to leave for the next one. She said staying during storms was a way to protect property from damage, and was part of her community’s cultural identity.

“These hurricanes make these communities what we are,” she said.

Back in Wilmington, Sharon Valentine is also no stranger to hurricanes. She owned a large animal farm near Fayetteville, N.C., which was devastated by Hurricane Fran in 1996.

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So when she and her partner decided to retire in Wilmington’s Del Webb community in 2017, they knew the risks.

Many others have followed since. “There’s a mass migration down here,” she said.

Ms. Valentine organizes annual hurricane training for these newer arrivals. The community members have evacuation plans and look out for one another.

Sharon Valentine and Leonard Bull keep an emergency go bag, which they call a “calamity box,” at their home in Wilmington.

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She, too, said the local infrastructure hadn’t kept up with growth. There are two small bridges on either end of River Road that serve as the main evacuation routes for her community. She is concerned that they may flood in a major storm.

“If we really ever have a bad one, we’re going to have to get out of here,” Ms. Valentine said.

Still, when she thinks about all the newcomers, she sympathizes with their reasons for moving here.

“It is a beautiful place that has a dragon emerge periodically,” she said. “And so you weigh your risks.”

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Beverly Hills is dragging its heels on a new building. The governor says: Build it

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Beverly Hills is dragging its heels on a new building. The governor says: Build it

California officials are turning the screws on the city of Beverly Hills, where approval of a new hotel and apartment complex is moving too slowly for state housing bosses and the governor.

The lightning rod is a planned mixed-use development near Wilshire Boulevard that has been brought forth under a state law intended to force cities to add more housing whether they like the proposals or not.

The 19-story building on Linden Drive by local developer Leo Pustilnikov would be big by Beverly Hills standards and include a 73-room hotel and restaurant on the first five floors. Plans call for the higher floors to contain 165 apartments including 33 units reserved for rental to lower-income households.

The project so far has failed to pass muster with city planning leaders, who say Pustilnikov hasn’t provided all the details about the project that the city requires to consider approval.

Pustilnikov has pioneered a novel interpretation of a state law known as the “builder’s remedy” to push cities to allow development projects at a size and scale otherwise barred under zoning rules.

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As part of their efforts to tackle California’s housing shortage and homelessness crisis, legislators recently beefed up the law, by giving developers leverage to get large proposals approved so long as they set aside a percentage for low-income residents.

Last month the state Department of Housing and Community Development backed Pustilnikov in a “notice of violation” to the city, saying it was violating state housing laws by holding up the project.

“The City Council should reverse its decision and direct city staff to process the project without further delay,” the state notice said, referring to a council vote in June to delay the approval process.

Gov. Gavin Newsom piled on in a statement, saying that the city is violating the law by “blocking” the proposal and referring to opponents of the project as NIMBYs — a highly charged acronym for “not in my backyard” that refers to homeowners who resist development projects in their neighborhoods.

“We can’t solve homelessness without addressing our housing shortage,” the governor said. “Now is a time to build more housing, not cave to the demands of NIMBYs.”

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Beverly Hills already faced pressure to approve the Linden project before the state’s letter. In June, Californians for Homeownership, a nonprofit affiliated with the California Assn. of Realtors, sued the city in Los Angeles County Superior Court for not advancing the development.

Some residents in the neighborhood south of Wilshire Boulevard are up in arms about the scale of the project that is designated to fill a parking lot at 125-129 S. Linden Drive between a five-story office building and low-rise apartment buildings.

“None of us are opposed to affordable housing,” said Kenneth A. Goldman, president of the Southwest Beverly Hills Homeowners Assn., but “you don’t have to be a NIMBY to say that’s just so far out of line.”

It would be almost four times taller than the five-story height limit the city has on its books and could threaten the neighborhood’s “quiet lifestyle,” Goldman said. The construction period would be “hell,” he added.

The city has until Sept. 20 to respond to state housing officials and indicated in a statement that the delay was due in part to Pustilnikov changing the original all-residential proposal to include the hotel. It is a switch that could offer a financial coup for the developer in a tourist-friendly city, where getting permission to build a new hotel is a tall order.

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Last year Beverly Hills voters decided to rescind the City Council’s approval of an ultra-opulent hotel called Cheval Blanc on the edge of Rodeo Drive after French luxury retailer LVMH spent millions of dollars planning the project.

Of the Linden Drive proposal, the city said in a statement, “The project has not been denied.”

“What was originally submitted as a purely residential project has now morphed into a 73-room hotel and restaurant project with 35 fewer residential units, including a reduction of 7 affordable units,” it said.

When the application is complete, the city said, a public hearing will be held, followed by Planning Commission review and potential approval by the City Council.

That process may be complicated by Pustilnikov’s stated intention to sell his interest in the Linden Drive property as part of a Chapter 11 bankruptcy proceeding involving another of his real estate projects.

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In 2018, Pustilnikov purchased a 50-acre parcel on the Redondo Beach waterfront that is the site of a defunct power plant. The property is controlled by entities owned by Pustilnikov and a business partner, Ely Dromy. Using the builder’s remedy law, the pair has advanced a massive mixed-use project for the site with 2,700 apartments as its centerpiece. In court documents, Pustilnikov estimates that the development, if completed, would be worth $600 million.

The effort has been stymied amid fights with the city of Redondo Beach, the California Coastal Commission and AES Corp., the owner of the power plant. In late 2022, AES threatened to foreclose on Pustilnikov. To stave that off, one of the entities that own the site filed for bankruptcy.

In a recent filing in the case, Pustilnikov and Dromy said they will sell the Linden property for $27.5 million to help preserve their ownership of the power plant site.

However, a representative for Pustilinkov, Adam Englander, said in a statement that is not necessarily the case.

Instead, more investors may be brought in to the Redondo Beach property and a developer with luxury hotel experience may become a partner in the Linden project, Englander said.

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“It is not anticipated,” Englander said, that the Linden project “in its current form, will be sold prior to completion.”

Pustilnkov has put forward plans to build nearly 3,500 apartment units — 700 of them dedicated as low-income — across a dozen projects in Beverly Hills, Redondo Beach, Santa Monica and West Hollywood under the builder’s remedy. The Linden project is one of seven he’s planning in Beverly Hills alone.

The builder’s remedy provides few avenues for city councils to deny the developments. But because it’s legally untested and separate state environmental laws still apply, projects are not a slam dunk. None of Pustilnikov’s proposals have been approved.

Cities are subject to the law if they do not have state-approved blueprints for future growth. Every eight years, the state requires communities to design a zoning plan accommodating specific numbers of new homes, including those set aside for low- and moderate-income families.

In the current eight-year cycle, Beverly Hills struggled to get a plan that passed muster. Elected officials and residents balked at the city’s requirement to make space for 3,104 homes, saying that doing so would unalterably change the community’s character.

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The city blew multiple deadlines and was sued by Californians for Homeownership. In December, a L.A. County Superior Court judge ruled that Beverly Hills could no longer issue any building permits — including those for pools, kitchen and bathroom remodels and other renovations — because of its failure.

The city appealed the ruling and continued to process permits in the meantime, but the decision sparked alarm among civic leaders. In May, the state approved a revised housing plan for Beverly Hills, ending the threat of the permit moratorium.

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How Self-Driving Cars Get Help From Humans Hundreds of Miles Away

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How Self-Driving Cars Get Help From Humans Hundreds of Miles Away

In places like San Francisco, Phoenix and Las Vegas, robot taxis are navigating city streets, each without a driver behind the steering wheel. Some don’t even have steering wheels:

But cars like this one in Las Vegas are sometimes guided by someone sitting here:

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This is a command center in Foster City, Calif., operated by Zoox, a self-driving car company owned by Amazon. Like other robot taxis, the company’s self-driving cars sometimes struggle to drive themselves, so they get help from human technicians sitting in a room about 500 miles away.

Inside companies like Zoox, this kind of human assistance is taken for granted. Outside such companies, few realize that autonomous vehicles are not completely autonomous.

For years, companies avoided mentioning the remote assistance provided to their self-driving cars. The illusion of complete autonomy helped to draw attention to their technology and encourage venture capitalists to invest the billions of dollars needed to build increasingly effective autonomous vehicles.

“There is a ‘Wizard of Oz’ flavor to this,” said Gary Marcus, an entrepreneur and a professor emeritus of psychology and neural science at New York University who specializes in A.I. and autonomous machines.

If a Zoox robot taxi encounters a construction zone it has not seen before, for instance, a technician in the command center will receive an alert — a short message in a small, colored window on the side of the technician’s computer screen. Then, using the computer mouse to draw a line across the screen, the technician can send the car a new route to follow around the construction zone.

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“We are not in full control of the vehicle,” said Marc Jennings, 35, a Zoox remote technician. “We are providing guidance.”

As companies like Waymo, owned by Google’s parent company, Alphabet, and Cruise, owned by General Motors, have begun to remove drivers from their cars, scrutiny of their operations has increased. After a series of high-profile accidents, they have started to acknowledge that the cars require human assistance.

While Zoox and other companies have started to reveal how humans intervene to help driverless cars, none of the companies have disclosed how many remote-assistance technicians they employ or how much it all costs. Zoox’s command center holds about three dozen people who oversee what appears to be a small number of driverless cars — two in Foster City and several more in Las Vegas — as well as a fleet of about 200 test cars that each still have a driver behind the steering wheel.

When regulators last year ordered Cruise to shut down its fleet of 400 robot taxis in San Francisco after a woman was dragged under one of its driverless vehicles, the cars were supported by about 1.5 workers per vehicle, including remote assistance staff, according to two people familiar with the company’s operations. Those workers intervened to assist the vehicles every two and a half to five miles, the people said.

The expenses associated with remote assistance are one reason robot taxis will struggle to replace traditional ride-hailing fleets operated by Uber and Lyft. Though companies like Zoox are beginning to replace drivers, they still pay people to work behind the scenes.

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“It may be cheaper just to pay a driver to sit in the car and drive it,” said Thomas W. Malone, a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Center for Collective Intelligence.

Waymo and Cruise declined to comment for this story.

While those companies use traditional cars retrofitted for self-driving, Zoox is testing a new kind of vehicle in Foster City, just south of San Francisco, and in Las Vegas, not far from the Strip.

After testing the vehicles with Zoox employees, their family members and friends, the company plans to make the service available to the public this year. But this robot taxi, like all others, will lean on human assistance.

In Foster City, the company operates what it calls a “fusion center,” where employees monitor robot taxis operating both locally and in Las Vegas, several hundred miles away. From their computer screens, these workers can track live feeds of the road from cameras installed on the cars as well as a detailed overhead view of each car and its surroundings, which is stitched together using data streaming from an array of sensors on the vehicle.

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The workers can provide verbal assistance to riders via speakers and microphones inside the cars. They can also assist a car if it encounters a scenario it cannot handle on its own.

Jason Henry for The New York Times

“These are situations that don’t necessarily fit the mold,” said Jayne Aclan, who oversees a team of Zoox technicians that provide cars with remote assistance.

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Self-driving cars can reliably handle familiar situations, like an ordinary right turn or a lane change. They are designed to brake on their own when a pedestrian runs in front of them. But they are less adept in unusual or unexpected situations. That’s why they still need the humans in the fusion center.

But even though self-driving cars have remote assistance, they still make mistakes on the road.

After reviewing the incident, Zoox indicated that its car had struggled to recognize the fire trucks because they were yellow, not red. “We continue to test and refine our driving software,” Whitney Jencks, a company spokeswoman, said.

Zoox will also continue to lean on human assistance.

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“We think that computers should be able to replicate humans and replace humans in all ways,” Dr. Malone, the M.I.T. professor, said. “It is possible that might happen. But it hasn’t yet.”

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Civilian space-walk flight Polaris Dawn set for Friday after rocket grounding

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Civilian space-walk flight Polaris Dawn set for Friday after rocket grounding

The Polaris Dawn mission that will feature the first civilian space walk is set for Friday after the Federal Aviation Administration cleared SpaceX to use the rocket that will launch the astronauts into the space.

The five-day trip led by billionaire Jared Isaacman, which has been repeatedly delayed, is scheduled to blast off from the Kennedy Space Center on Friday, with backup launch dates on Saturday and Sunday should the weather prove unfavorable or other problems arise.

The latest delay came last week, when the FAA grounded SpaceX’s fleet of Falcon 9 rockets after the first-stage booster of a Falcon 9 fell over and exploded while trying to land on a barge off the Florida coast. The FAA lifted its order on Friday, paving the way for the Polaris Dawn mission, which will use a Falcon 9 rocket.

SpaceX said that the first stage had completed 22 launches and returns before the accident. The mishap also ended a streak of 267 successful returns for the Falcon 9 program, which has sharply lower launch costs due its reusable first stage.

The Polaris Dawn mission had been scheduled to launch early last week but was first delayed due to a helium leak in a launchpad hose that pumps helium into the Falcon 9 engines. Unfavorable conditions forecast off the coast of Florida for the splashdown prompted a second delay.

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Isaacman, a fintech billionaire, is funding the space journey aboard a SpaceX Crew Dragon capsule, which typically services the International Space Station.

Accompanying him are three other crew members, including two SpaceX employees. The flight will send them to the highest Earth orbit since the Apollo program, and on the third day Isaacman and a second crew member are set to become the first civilians to walk in space.

They will be testing a new generation of form-fitting space suits that SpaceX says will be necessary to colonize the moon and Mars.

Since the mission is not docking with the space station and has limited supplies, weather conditions need to be good for both the launch and splashdown off the Florida coast.

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