Lawmakers make costly decisions without understanding the economic impact.

Illinois lawmakers should get economic impact studies before enacting major taxes and regulations and review costly policies they’ve already enacted.

The state faces nearly $21 billion in projected budget deficits in the next five years, with expenditures projected to grow nearly 20% and revenues only 11%.

Lawmakers can revisit policies that were enacted with limited analysis of their long-term cost. Illinois vastly underestimated spending on migrant health care. In 2023 alone, the state expected to spend $220 million, but the total came in nearly three times higher, at $644 million. Lawmakers eventually reversed part of this policy, but only after lengthy audits after the policy was enacted. A quicker reviewing of the policy that didn’t require audits could have helped.

State lawmakers also passed economically damaging business taxes for fiscal 2026 with little discussion or debate, prioritizing short-term increases in revenue while risking long-term economic growth in a state whose economy is already falling behind.

The bipartisan Illinois Joint Committee on Administrative Rules is required to consider the financial impact of proposed rules on small businesses and local governments, but its authority is limited. Either expanding its role or creating a similar mechanism to include comprehensive economic impact reviews of major tax and policy changes and their long-term consequences would provide lawmakers more information before making decisions. Too often, policy changes are adopted with little scrutiny, often in the final hours of the legislative session.

Regulations are another issue. As the fourth-most regulated state in the U.S., with over 282,000 restrictions, many of them unnecessary and costly, Illinois should more closely review economically significant regulations before they take effect.

The state should look to the federal Regulations from the Executive in Need of Scrutiny Act. That bill would mandate that the U.S. Congress explicitly approve any “major rules,” or those that would have a significant impact on the economy or business.

Illinois could adopt a similar approach, requiring legislative approval for regulations with at least $10 million in economic impact. This could ensure that major regulatory decisions receive both thorough analysis and democratic accountability.

A threshold of $10 million in annual economic impact would ensure that:

• Economic impacts are evaluated early in the rulemaking process.
• Lawmakers have ample time to review proposed rules.
• Costly or ideologically driven rules are prevented from taking effect by default.
• There is legislative responsibility for economically significant policy decisions.

Illinois finances will only deteriorate further if lawmakers focus on short-term policymaking rather than the future health of Illinois. For a more thorough roadmap on fiscal reforms, see our report Illinois Forward 2027.

High chronic absenteeism will no longer hurt a school’s state rating.

Illinois plans to eliminate poor attendance from school ratings at a time when a fourth of the state’s students miss a significant chunk of the academic year.

In an overhaul the State Board of Education approved in April, “chronic absenteeism,” or missing 10% or more of the school year with or without a valid excuse, will no longer ding a school’s rating.

The new system will use the term “consistent attendance,” the percentage of students present 90% or more of the school year.

That semantic switch may confuse parents about what’s really being measured, though it’s just a different way of saying the same thing. But the revised system also changes attendance from a “core indicator” in the rankings to merely an “elevating indicator.”

Why that matters: Strong “consistent attendance” will raise a school’s rating, but a weak performance won’t hurt it.

The state calls this a “strengths-based” approach, but it means the high rates of students skipping class across Illinois won’t affect schools’ ratings.

Lots of students skip class in Illinois

Illinois schools have an attendance problem. In the 2024-25 school year, 25% of students were chronically absent, according to state data. The national rate was roughly 22%, according to a RAND estimate.

Illinois’ rate dropped nearly one percentage point from the previous school year, marking the third year in a row that chronic absenteeism declined. But those modest improvements have not been enough to return Illinois to its pre-pandemic absenteeism levels.

In 2018-2019, the last full school year before pandemic-era school closures, 17.5% of Illinois students were chronically absent. That skyrocketed in the 2021-2022 school year to nearly 30%. While absenteeism is slowly declining, it still stands nearly eight percentage points above pre-pandemic levels.

Chronic absenteeism hurts results

Research shows that chronic absenteeism leads to lower metrics such as reading and graduation rates. U.S. Department of Education research suggests that “children who are chronically absent for multiple years between preschool and second grade are much less likely to read at grade level by the third grade.”

Third grade has been pinpointed as a critical for reading. If children have not learned to read by the end of that year, they are likely to struggle throughout their education.

Illinois already has a literacy crisis among its third-graders, with less than half reading at grade level as of 2025. Absenteeism only threatens to exacerbate the problem.

Also, high school students with even just one year of chronic absenteeism are seven times more likely to drop out.

Softened accountability metrics

The state seems determined to downplay problems affecting its students. In 2025, the state education board lowered the reading and math scores considered proficient on the Illinois Assessment of Readiness.

Despite the lowered proficiency standards, half of Illinois students still could not read at grade level in 2025.

Rather than softening accountability metrics or lowering standards, Illinois should pursue rigor and transparency in public schools.