Politics
Inside the US military playbook to cripple Iran if nuclear talks collapse
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If negotiations with Iran collapse, the U.S. likely is to move quickly to degrade Tehran’s military capabilities — a campaign analysts say would begin with missile systems, naval assets and command networks before escalating to more controversial targets.
Negotiators are still working toward what officials describe as a preliminary framework agreement — effectively a one-page starting point for broader talks centered on Iran’s nuclear program and potential sanctions relief. But deep mistrust on both sides has left the process fragile, raising the stakes if diplomacy fails.
“We’re not starting at zero,” retired Army Col. Seth Krummrich, a former Joint Staff planner and current Vice President at Global Guardian, told Fox News Digital. “We’re both starting at minus 1,000 because neither side trusts each other at all. This is going to be a pretty hard process going forward.”
That tension was on display Thursday, when a senior U.S. official confirmed American forces struck Iran’s Qeshm port and Bandar Abbas — key locations near the Strait of Hormuz — while insisting the operation did not mark a restart of the war or the end of the ceasefire.
The strike on one of Iran’s oil ports came two days after Iran launched 15 ballistic and cruise missiles at the UAE’s Fujairah Port, drawing anger from Gulf allies. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine said earlier this week the attack did not rise to the level of breaking the ceasefire, describing it as a low-level strike.
President Donald Trump repeatedly has warned that if negotiations collapse, the U.S. could resume bombing Iran — even signaling before the recent ceasefire was implemented that Washington could target the country’s energy infrastructure and key economic assets. But any escalation would likely unfold in phases, beginning with efforts to dismantle Iran’s ability to project force across the region before expanding to more controversial targets.
President Donald Trump has warned repeatedly that if negotiations collapse, the U.S. could resume bombing Iran. (Aaron Schwartz/CNP/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
If talks break down, any renewed conflict would likely become a “contest for escalation control,” where Iran seeks to impose costs without provoking regime-threatening retaliation while the U.S. works to strip away Tehran’s remaining leverage, according to retired Air Force Lt. Gen. David Deptula.
“The capabilities that would come into focus are the ones Iran uses to generate coercive leverage: ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, air defense systems, maritime strike assets, command-and-control networks, IRGC infrastructure, proxy support channels, and nuclear-related facilities,” he said, referring to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps.
“The military objective would be less about punishment and more about denying Iran the tools it uses to escalate,” he said.
“President Trump has all the cards, and he wisely keeps all options on the table to ensure that Iran can never possess a nuclear weapon,” White House spokesperson Olivia Wales told Fox News Digital. The Pentagon could not immediately be reached for comment.
One early focus could be Iran’s fleet of fast attack boats in the Strait of Hormuz — a central component of Tehran’s ability to threaten global shipping in one of the world’s most critical energy corridors.
RP Newman, a military and terrorism analyst and Marine Corp veteran, said leaving much of that fleet intact during earlier strikes was a mistake.
IRAN’S REMAINING WEAPONS: HOW TEHRAN CAN STILL DISRUPT THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ
“We’ve blown up six of them,” he said. “They’ve got about 400 left.”
The small, fast-moving boats are a key part of Iran’s asymmetric maritime strategy, capable of harassing commercial tankers and U.S. naval forces — and could quickly become a priority target in any renewed campaign.
Much of Iran’s core military structure also remains intact.
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Newman said “we’ve only killed less than one percent of IRGC troops,” leaving a large portion of the force still capable of carrying out operations. He estimated the group “numbers between 150 and 190,000.”
But targeting the IRGC is far more complex than eliminating senior leadership.
“They’re not just a group of leaders at the top that you can kill away,” Krummrich said. “Over 47 years it’s percolated down to every level.”
An excavator removes rubble at the site of a strike that destroyed half of the Khorasaniha Synagogue and nearby residential buildings in Tehran, Iran, on April 7, 2026, according to a security official at the scene. (Francisco Seco/AP)
Retired Rear Adm. Mark Montgomery, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies policy institute, said Washington may continue tightening economic pressure before broadening military action, arguing the U.S. should “squeeze them for at least another three to six weeks” before considering more aggressive escalation.
“You could have blown Kharg Island back to smithereens,” Krummrich said, referring to Iran’s primary oil export terminal in the Persian Gulf. “But what the planner said was, no — what we can do is a maritime blockade. It will have the same effect.”
Iran has continued moving crude through covert shipping networks and ship-to-ship transfers, with tanker trackers reporting millions of barrels still reaching markets in recent weeks.
A CIA analysis found Iran may be able to sustain those pressures for another three to four months before facing more severe economic strain, according to a report by The Washington Post.
The question is how far a U.S. campaign could expand if initial pressure fails to force concessions.
Trump has signaled a willingness to go further, warning before the ceasefire that the U.S. could “completely obliterate” Iran’s electric generating plants, oil infrastructure and key export hubs such as Kharg Island if a deal is not reached.
Strikes on the Iranian leadership, the IRGC, and Iranian naval vessels and oil infrastructure have roiled the markets. ( Sasan / Middle East Images / AFP via Getty Images)
“You don’t do that at first,” Montgomery said, describing strikes on dual-use infrastructure as a conditional step dependent on Iran’s response.
Targeting dual-use infrastructure presents significant legal and operational challenges.
“I’ve got 500 people standing on my target. You can’t hit that,” Newman said.
Such decisions carry political and legal risks, particularly given the likelihood of international scrutiny.
Broader infrastructure strikes also could create long-term instability if they push Iran toward internal collapse.
“In the short term, it might help. But in the long term, we’re all going to have to deal with it,” Krummrich said. “Once you pull that lever, you’re basically pushing Iran closer to the edge of the abyss.”
A collapse of state authority could create a failed-state scenario across the Strait of Hormuz, with armed groups, drones and missiles operating unchecked in one of the world’s most strategically important waterways.
Even some of the most discussed military options — such as seizing Iran’s highly enriched uranium — would be extremely difficult to execute.
“That’s much harder than it sounds,” said Montgomery.
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Such a mission would likely take months, and require engineers, technicians and heavy excavation equipment, in addition to thousands of U.S. operators providing continuous air coverage.
“When you start to stack that up, that becomes resource intensive and high risk — not even high, extreme risk,” said Krummrich.
Politics
Trump to kick off Great American State Fair as 250th anniversary celebrations take over National Mall
Washington DC to host Great American State Fair for America250
Ambassador Monica Crowley discusses the Great American State Fair, set to transform the National Mall in Washington D.C. from June 25 to July 10. Celebrating America’s 250th anniversary, the 16-day event will feature pavilions from all 50 states and six territories, a 110-foot Ferris wheel, traditional games, and rodeo competitions, aiming to unite the country.
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President Donald Trump will kick off the Great American State Fair Wednesday evening as part of celebrations surrounding the nation’s 250th anniversary.
“President Trump promised the greatest 250th birthday celebration in American history, and Freedom 250 is proud to help deliver it for the American people,” Freedom 250 CEO Keith Kranch told Fox News Digital.
“This celebration is about what makes America exceptional—our freedom, our faith, our optimism, and our people. We are honored to welcome President Trump as he helps kick off these historic festivities tomorrow and begin a nationwide celebration of our Nation’s 250th birthday,” Krach added.
The fair brings together all 50 states and six U.S. territories for a national celebration stretching from the Capitol to the Washington Monument featuring military flyovers, musical performances and civic programming. Trump announced he will deliver remarks after a handful of musical artists pulled out of their musical performances, turning the bash into a “Make America Great Again Rally.”
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Organizers describe the Great American State Fair as a modern-day World’s Fair celebrating America’s 250th anniversary. (Aaron Schwartz/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
The event is scheduled to run from June 25 through July 10, 2026, celebrating patriotism to bring together the nation for a celebration of unity.
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U.S. President Donald J. Trump watches the UFC lightweight championship fight during the UFC Freedom 250 event on the South Lawn at the White House on June 14, 2026 in Washington, DC (Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)
Trump’s anticipated remarks follow his signature last week on a Memorandum of Understanding with Iran, launching a 60-day negotiating period aimed at preventing Tehran from ever obtaining nuclear weapons capability.
The world’s fair-scale event will have pavilions touching on five national themes: Made in America, American Heartland, American Innovates, The American Canvas, and Faith & Family.
There will also be a 110-foot Ferris wheel and the refurbished Smithsonian carousel for families to enjoy.
Rending of 110-foot ferris wheel coming to National Mall for “Great American State Fair.” (Freedom250)
The U.S. has hosted over two dozen variations of the world’s fair since first hosted in Philadelphia in 1876, according to the State Department.
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Freedom250, the nonpartisan group helping coordinate the broader America250 effort, said the fair will feature food, games, exhibits and themed attractions designed to showcase the country’s culture, history and innovation.
Politics
Why your food scraps travel more than 100 miles — and how an L.A. council member wants to stop it
Bob Blumenfield would like to see Angelenos’ old banana peels and moldy bread stay local.
On Tuesday morning, the City Council member told a small crowd of waste advocates in front of city hall that he was introducing a motion to reduce the city’s greenhouse gas emissions by strengthening local composting infrastructure and decreasing reliance on distant facilities.
Currently, when city residents separate their food waste and yard clippings, chances are it’s being trucked to faraway processing facilities in Bakersfield or Lancaster.
The motion would help the city meet targets set by California’s Short-Lived Climate Pollutant Reduction Strategy, or Senate Bill 1383, which phases out sending green waste to the landfill, because it is a major source of the powerful climate pollutant methane.
It also would help meet Mayor Bass’ Climate Action Plan, which aims to use at least 50% of locally produced compost and mulch within Los Angeles by 2030. Currently, only 25% to 30% of the city’s material is applied to land locally.
The city produces approximately 350,000 tons of organic material a year, Blumenfield told the crowd, which he said equates to roughly 1.2 to 1.5 million metric tons of carbon dioxide.
“That’s a big number, and when you do the math,” he said, that’s roughly the same amount of carbon dioxide released by the entire country of Belize, the entirety of Humboldt County or the equivalent of burning 1.6 billion pounds of coal per year.
As the announcement was underway, in the background a fire burned for a sixth day in a Boyle Heights warehouse, where 85 million pounds of frozen food was thawing and beginning to rot.
Signed into law in 2016, the state’s composting bill mandated a gradual increase in the amount of organic waste that must be diverted away from landfills. It required 50% of all green and food waste be diverted by 2020; by 2025, that number was supposed to hit 75%.
But it hasn’t. Although Los Angeles has pushed to get a residential curbside bin program in place — recall the “Great Green Bin Apocalypse of 2025” — it has struggled to get people to comply.
According to reports for the recycLA program, a commercial and multifamily waste collection franchise program, only about half of households and business are separating their compostable waste.
Alex Helou, assistant general manager of L.A. Sanitation & Environment, provided a much brighter picture of the city’s food waste situation. L.A. is the first major city to provide green bins to 750,000 residential customers, he said. The city has “exceeded expectations” in food recovery, he said, saving 80 million meals that would have been thrown out and redirecting them to people in need.
Helou said Blumenfield’s motion completes the loop by keeping food waste close to home, creating more local composting and reducing greenhouse gas emissions from transporting waste outside of the city. It doesn’t directly affect the city’s compliance with SB 1383, but that isn’t necessary, he said. “We’re meeting that and exceeding that at multiple fronts.”
Blumenfield’s initiative directs the Bureau of Sanitation to develop a plan for expanding local composting across the city. It would also increase the use of locally produced compost and mulch.
For instance, the motion would encourage using the compost on urban farms and at community gardens and city parks. It also would be used to replace artificial grass and turf.
It will support a “citywide transition away from artificial turf and towards nature-based solutions, such as California native plants and natural grass plant fields, and ensure everyone has access to safer, cooler, and sustainable parks, schools, and communities,” said Terry Saucier, a Tarzana resident and member of the Neighborhood Council Sustainability Alliance and the Tarzana Neighborhood Council.
The state’s composting law has proved challenging on several fronts.
The Antelope Valley has become a dumping site for many of the city’s haulers looking to cut transport and facility costs — causing concern among environmentalists and others who say the material is destroying fragile ecosystems.
Complying has been particularly difficult for Los Angeles and much of coastal Southern California, where there are few large composters and low demand for compost. Unlike areas to the north, there is little agricultural demand for compost and mulch.
Experts say dumping in the desert has always been a problem, but the law made it worse by making it more expensive and difficult to deal with.
In addition, composters are struggling with the amount of plastic and other debris that people and businesses put in the food waste bins.
According to a report by Closed Loop Partners, which partners with companies such as Pepsico and McDonald’s, nearly 4% of food waste is contaminated with other materials — most of it plastic. State law requires that finished compost contains no more than 0.5% by dry weight of physical contaminants.
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Democratic Gov. Wes Moore of Maryland, whom pundits consider a potential 2028 presidential contender, is one step closer to winning re-election this year.
Moore on Tuesday captured the Democratic gubernatorial nomination in the solidly blue Mid-Atlantic state, the Associated Press reports.
Moore and his running mate, Lt. Gov. Aruna Miller, easily dispatched a primary challenge from Eric Felber and his running mate, LaTrece Hawkins Lytes. Felber, a physician, unsuccessfully challenged Democratic Rep. Jamie Raskin in the 2024 primary in the state’s 8th Congressional District.
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Maryland Gov. Wes Moore speaks during an announcement at the South Court Auditorium of the Eisenhower Executive Office Building at the White House in Washington, D.C., on Jan. 16, 2026. (Valerie Plesch/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
Candidates for governor and lieutenant governor run on the same ticket in Maryland.
The Democratic ticket will face the winners of a nine-way Republican primary field.
Moore is running for re-election this year amid speculation that he also is eyeing a run for the White House in 2028, in the race to succeed term-limited President Donald Trump. Democrats are expected to field a large and competitive field in the race for their party’s presidential nomination.
The governor has consistently ruled out running for the White House in 2028, saying that his political focus is on his home state and his 2026 re-election.
But regardless, Moore remains a top Democratic Party surrogate in national politics. And Moore, a 47-year-old Army veteran, who is also a Rhodes Scholar and was CEO of the charitable organization the Robin Hood Foundation during the coronavirus pandemic, is viewed as a rising star in the party.
Maryland Gov. Wes Moore and President Donald Trump are pictured together in a split image. (Nathan Howard/Getty Images; Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)
Moore, the nation’s only Black governor, has had a combustible relationship with Trump, which has included very public feuds and verbal sparring, and clashes over policy.
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Earlier this year, Trump initially excluded Moore from a National Governors Association dinner at the White House, charging that the governor was “not worthy” of attending.
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