Florida Democrats had their best election night in years Tuesday, flipping two legislative seats.

Analysts and politicians point to the combination of strong candidates, low turnout special elections, rising gas prices compounding existing affordability issues and the ongoing conflict in Iran, which helped offset the registration and financial advantages of Republicans.  

Also, historically, an unpopular president heading towards the midterm elections is always tricky for the party in power.

These factors may justify some optimism for the minority party in the state heading into the November election cycle, which could see rematches from Tuesday’s contests.

University of Central Florida political science professor Aubrey Jewett said at the campaign level Florida Democrats did a good job getting solid candidates who didn’t make mistakes and stuck to the message of affordability.

Also, there is the timing, as historically the sitting president’s party more often loses seats in midterm elections at the congressional and state legislative levels. Jewett added that unpopular presidents lose even more seats, noting that since the 2024 presidential election, Democrats have flipped more than two dozen seats in Republican or battleground states.

“President Trump’s unpopularity cast a long, dark shadow over these Republican candidates in these races,” Jewett said. “And so, even if you had decent candidates, it was just too much of an uphill battle because of President Trump’s unpopularity.”

One of those Democrats who won did so in a district that includes Trump’s Mar-a-lago estate 

Democrat Emily Gregory of Jupiter led by 2.38 percentage points with 33,429 ballots cast in the House District 87 contest along the east coast of Palm Beach County. The district includes the home of President Donald Trump.

Gregory is a Treasure Coast native, a military spouse and mother of three with a master’s degree in public health from Columbia University who operates a small fitness business.

Tampa Democrat Brian Nathan, a U.S. Navy veteran and organizer with the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers, was up 0.51 percentage points in the state Senate District 14 contest in Hillsborough County, where 80,016 votes were cast.

The results remain unofficial.

Republican Hilary Holley easily won the third legislative special election, House District 51 in Polk County, by more than 8 percentage points.

In the Tampa State Senate race, Jewett said there was evidence that Republicans seemed to be doing well in early voting, noting GOP candidate Josie Tomkow, a former House member, had good name recognition and funding.  

“But it appears that the Democrats that turn out were strongly unified and (no party affiliation voters) must have gone strongly Democratic as well — and it seems likely that at least some Republicans voted Democratic,” Jewett said.

House Speaker-designate Sam Garrison, R-Fleming Island, who led GOP efforts for the House special elections, issued a statement Tuesday night that Republican Jon Maples ran an “extremely strong campaign” for the Palm Beach County seat, but faced “low Republican turnout due to awkward special election timing,” and also questioned “despicable, dark-money” attacks against the candidate. 

Garrison added, “We will learn from today’s results and see you in November.”

Florida Republican and Democratic party chairs react to the election’s results 

Republican Party of Florida Chairman Evan Power said the party is “proud” of its special election candidates and will continue to “engage, mobilize and lead.”

“Republicans are leading on the issues that matter the most to Floridians — public safety, economic growth, meaningful property tax reform, expanded school choice, and strong environmental stewardship,” Power said in a statement. “Our record isn’t just strong, it is unmatched. With a Republican voter registration advantage of nearly 1.5 million, we are well-positioned and fully energized as we head toward November.”

Florida Democratic Party Chairwoman Nikki Fried hopes the result makes Republican lawmakers pause as they approach Gov. Ron DeSantis’ call for a special session to redraw congressional district lines the week of April 20.

“Voters are tired of one-party rule and attempts to steal their votes,” Fried said in a conference call Wednesday with reporters. “They are tired of the skyrocketing costs and the chaos in the news this year.”

Fried also said the state party, which still faces a need to cut into the Republican supermajorities in the Legislature in the fall election, has been on the phones with national Democratic groups that have disengaged from Florida politics the past couple of cycles.

The opening weekend of the 2026 men’s NCAA tournament featured its fair share of heartbreaking losses.

Among them? Reigning national champion and No. 1 seed Florida dropped a close battle with scrappy 9-seed Iowa. Kansas was eliminated on a buzzer-beating layup by St. John’s. Kentucky suffered its worst NCAA tournament loss since 1972. And North Carolina surrendered a 19-point lead to fall to VCU in overtime.

With some of the most storied college basketball programs ending their seasons earlier than expected, ESPN’s Jeff Borzello and Myron Medcalf detail what’s next for each. Here’s your guide to their expected departures, returnees, top incoming recruits and where that leaves their personnel priorities for when the transfer portal opens April 7.

Record: 27-8 (16-2 in SEC)
How their season ended: Lost to Iowa in second round

Expected departures

Thomas Haugh (17.0 PPG)
Xaivian Lee (11.4 PPG)
Micah Handlogten (4.2 PPG)

Players with remaining eligibility

Alex Condon (14.9 PPG)
Boogie Fland (11.7 PPG)
Rueben Chinyelu (11.2 PPG)
Urban Klavzar (9.7 PPG)
Isaiah Brown (5.6 PPG)
CJ Ingram (2.2 PPG)
Viktor Mikic (1.3 PPG)
Alex Lloyd (1.2 PPG)
Alex Kovatchev (0.5 PPG)
AJ Brown (redshirt)

Top incoming recruit: Jones Lay (three-star)

Florida has essentially eschewed immediate impact freshmen under Todd Golden, landing only two top-100 recruits in the past four recruiting classes combined. The incoming class is no different, with only the unranked Lay in the fold. He will very likely be a depth player early in his career, then his future will depend on development. The Gators did take a couple of swings at recruiting top-50 prospects, but will instead go to the portal or overseas for the rest of their newcomers.

Portal priorities: Before Florida fully goes into the portal, the Gators will need to figure out which of their starters are returning to Gainesville. Haugh has played himself into a potential NBA draft lottery pick, so we can project him to leave for the NBA. But both Condon and Chinyelu were projected second-round picks in ESPN’s most recent mock draft, leaving their short-term futures more uncertain. Condon was a borderline first-round pick in 2025 and opted to return to school. It probably would cost at least $3 million to retain each, but they’ve been anchors for back-to-back No. 1 seeds, and Golden could see value in building around them again. Fland should return to school after also withdrawing from the NBA draft last spring.

If Condon, Chinyelu and Fland all return, Golden would need a Haugh replacement and additional shooting on the perimeter. Klavzar could move into the starting lineup with Lee gone, but he proved to be incredibly useful as a sixth man. Could any of the seldom-used roster players make a sizable jump and move into a consistent rotation role the way Isaiah Brown did from 2024-25 to 2025-26? It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Florida go into the portal or look at international players to bring in at least two or three more perimeter players. — Borzello

Record: 24-11 (12-6 in Big 12)
How their season ended: Lost to St. John’s in second round

Expected departures

Darryn Peterson (20.1 PPG)
Tre White (13.8 PPG)
Melvin Council Jr. (12.6 PPG)
Jayden Dawson (2.1 PPG)

Players with remaining eligibility

Flory Bidunga (13.3 PPG)
Bryson Tiller (8.1 PPG)
Elmarko Jackson (4.8 PPG)
Jamari McDowell (3.4 PPG)
Kohl Rosario (3.3 PPG)
Paul Mbiya (1.1 PPG)
Samis Calderon (0.4 PPG)

Top incoming recruit: Taylen Kinney (No. 19)

Kinney is one of the best point guards in the 2026 class, and will step in immediately as the playmaking focal point of the offense with Peterson’s departure. He’s better as a scorer at this point in his development, especially when taking his defender off the dribble and attacking the rim. Kinney has improved as a passer and creator over the past year, so the next step on offense is becoming more consistent from the perimeter. His length should help him early as a defender.

Portal priorities: The frontcourt should be in good shape if Bidunga and Tiller both return; it would make sense for both to be retention priorities. Bidunga developed into one of the best defensive players in the country this season while also proving to be a capable scorer in the post. And Tiller showed very impressive flashes despite struggling down the stretch.

With Kinney coming in to run the show at point guard, that leaves the wings as areas to improve for Kansas. It’s worth keeping in mind that the Jayhawks are considered the frontrunner to sign SC Next 100’s top overall recruit Tyran Stokes. If they do land him, that could change the calculus for their offseason roster construction. But with or without Stokes, they will need an immediate impact player on the perimeter — Rosario showed promise early in the season, and though he could take a step forward, Kansas would benefit from more proven production.

There’s also the elephant in the room: Bill Self’s status. Self said after the loss to St. John’s that he hasn’t decided on whether he will return next season. If he doesn’t come back, it’s entirely unclear how the Kansas roster will look. — Borzello

Record: 22-14 (10-8 in SEC)
How their season ended: Lost to Iowa State in second round

Expected departures

Denzel Aberdeen (13.5 PPG)
Otega Oweh (18.6 PPG)
Jayden Quaintance (5.0 PPG)

Players with remaining eligibility

Jaland Lowe (8.0 PPG)
Collin Chandler (9.7 PPG)
Mouhamed Dioubate (8.8 PPG)
Brandon Garrison (4.7 PPG)
Kam Williams (6.0 PPG)
Malachi Moreno (7.8 PPG)
Jasper Johnson (4.9 PPG)
Andrija Jelavic (5.5 PPG)
Trent Noah (3.0 PPG)

Top incoming recruit: None

You’re reading that right: Kentucky does not have a single commitment from the 2026 class as of Tuesday. The Wildcats pursued Tyran Stokes, but as Jeff detailed above, it seems the No. 1 recruit is leaning toward Kansas. It appears that coach Mark Pope will again construct a roster comprising returnees and transfers — but as he learned this season, that’s a risk. The Wildcats reportedly spent more than $20 million on their 2025-26 roster yet finished only two games above .500 in SEC play and advanced to the second round of the NCAA tournament only because of a miracle buzzer-beater.

Portal priorities: This season’s roster never jelled the way Pope anticipated, which means he might end up building another from scratch, depending on who stays or goes.

The backcourt has to be his top priority. Aberdeen and Oweh are out of eligibility, which means that not only will Pope need elite guards who are capable playmakers and scorers, but he’ll also need depth — especially at point guard. The latter has been a problem throughout his tenure. Even if Lowe returns, Pope will need multiple players at both guard positions to anchor next season’s roster.

The next priority: a big man. Though Moreno could take the next step as a sophomore, and Dioubate has been solid for stretches, the Wildcats didn’t have a dominant big with Quaintance contending with knee injuries. The teams still competing for this year’s national championship — Michigan, UConn, St. John’s and Duke — have imposing big men. Kentucky can’t enter another season without a strong inside presence.

Finally, with Chandler the only reliable 3-point shooter on this season’s squad, Kentucky also needs more support on the perimeter. — Medcalf

Record: 24-9 (12-6 in ACC)
How their season ended: Lost to VCU in first round

Expected departures

Caleb Wilson (19.8 PPG)
Seth Trimble (14.0 PPG)

Players with remaining eligibility

Henri Veesaar (17.0 PPG)
Luka Bogavac (9.8 PPG)
Jarin Stevenson (8.1 PPG)
Derek Dixon (6.5 PPG)
Jonathan Powell (4.8 PPG)
Kyan Evans (4.0 PPG)
Zayden High (3.4 PPG)
Isaiah Denis (1.9 PPG)
Jaydon Young (1.8 PPG)

Top incoming recruit: Dylan Mingo (No. 9)

Mingo is one of the elite guards in the 2026 class, despite being hampered by injuries for most of the high school season. He has great positional size and length, and projects to make an impact at both ends of the court. With Evans potentially leaving for the portal after struggling this season, Dixon and Mingo could share playmaking duties in the backcourt — if Mingo opts to keep his commitment, should Hubert Davis depart. Mingo didn’t pick Carolina until mid-February.

Portal priorities: Though Wilson is probably off to the NBA and Trimble is out of eligibility, Davis or his potential replacement will have to make Veesaar the priority. He had an early second-round projection in ESPN’s most recent mock draft, but he could opt to return to Chapel Hill for a substantial amount of money. If Veesaar is back at UNC, he and Stevenson should form one of the better frontcourt duos in the ACC. If Veesaar leaves, the Tar Heels will need to target a high-level big man in the portal.

In addition to a potential Veesaar replacement, the Tar Heels also probably will need an upgrade when it comes to perimeter shotmaking and explosiveness. None of Bogavac, Powell or Young were overly consistent as scorers. And though Mingo is a terrific addition — as is four-star forward Maximo Adams — neither is a knockdown shooter. If the roster falls apart following Davis’ potential departure, Veesaar, Stevenson and Dixon should be the retention priorities for a new coach. — Borzello