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XRP Is Down 54% in 6 Months. Has It Become a Bargain Buy? | The Motley Fool

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XRP Is Down 54% in 6 Months. Has It Become a Bargain Buy? | The Motley Fool

After spending much of 2025 as one of the hottest cryptocurrencies, XRP (XRP 0.74%) has gone through a rough correction. It’s down 54% over the last six months (as of March 10), and a sell-off has quickly followed every recent uptick.

Sometimes, these drawdowns are an opportunity to buy the dip, but they can also be a falling knife. Let’s see whether there’s a good case to buy XRP at the current price.

Image source: Getty Images.

This drawdown isn’t just an XRP issue

Both the crypto and stock markets are experiencing volatility. Most major cryptocurrencies have also performed poorly over the last six months, with Bitcoin losing 39%, Ethereum declining 54%, and Dogecoin dropping 63%. Stocks have also fluctuated, with investors rotating out of tech into value stocks.

XRP’s drop isn’t due to any significant failures on its part. The downturn has hit the entire crypto market. That said, while most cryptocurrencies suffer during downturns, not all recover when the market rebounds, so it’s not a given that XRP will succeed going forward.

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Why XRP could continue to struggle

XRP’s real-world value is based on its role in Ripple Payments, a payment network for financial institutions. Ripple Payments uses blockchain technology to send cross-border payments quickly and with low transaction fees. Banks that partner with Ripple can also use XRP as a bridge currency, converting payments from the sender’s currency to XRP and then to the recipient’s currency.

XRP Stock Quote

Today’s Change

(-0.74%) $-0.01

Current Price

$1.39

It’s an interesting idea, but since XRP’s launch way back in 2012, several problems have emerged. Financial institutions can and often do use Ripple Payments without XRP. Of the 300-plus institutions using Ripple Payments, only a handful also use XRP. Even when cross-border payments involve XRP, it serves a brief role. The XRP tokens are converted to the destination currency in seconds.

Ripple also launched its own stablecoin, Ripple USD, last year, and it currently has a market cap of $1.6 billion. Although it’s possible that XRP and Ripple USD can coexist, Ripple USD theoretically works even better as a bridge currency, since it doesn’t have XRP’s volatility.

The Clarity Act is a potential growth catalyst

It’s not all bad news for XRP. The U.S. Senate Banking Committee is considering the Clarity Act, which would provide a regulatory framework for digital assets. Notably, it would classify XRP as a digital commodity and not a security. U.S. banks and asset managers would effectively have the green light to fully integrate XRP into operations, including using it as a bridge currency in international payments.

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Even if the Clarity Act passes, there’s no guarantee XRP’s price will increase. Last August, issuer Ripple finally ended its lawsuit with the SEC, but closing that book didn’t provide any positive momentum for XRP.

If you’re bullish on XRP, now is a good time to add to your position. However, given the risk involved, you should avoid making it a significant position in your portfolio. Consider investing in other cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, as well as cryptocurrency stocks. That way, you can still benefit from a market recovery, even if XRP underperforms.

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Heber City becomes second municipality in Utah to ban cryptocurrency ATMs – Park Record

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Heber City becomes second municipality in Utah to ban cryptocurrency ATMs – Park Record

Mohamed “Moe” Mohamed didn’t think the cryptocurrency ATM installed in his Heber City convenience store, Mountainland One Stop, about a year ago would cause so much trouble. He knew Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies were gaining traction, so he thought nothing of signing a three-year contract to keep the machine in his store.

But Mohamed began to notice an influx of people, many elderly, visiting the store to use it as soon as it was installed. Many came with cash in hand, sometimes tens of thousands of dollars, to deposit. 

Mohamed asked these customers what they were doing, and he quickly realized they were being scammed. Unable to get out of his contract, Mohamed implemented a store policy: keep customers away from the machine at all costs.

The Heber City Council gave Mohamed a way out of his contract when it passed an ordinance prohibiting cryptocurrency ATMs on April 7. The operator of the cryptocurrency ATM has 60 days from the passing of the ordinance to uninstall the machine, which is the only one in Heber City.

Police Chief Parker Sever suggested the ban after hearing a presentation about cryptocurrency fraud from the Utah Attorney General’s Office a few months ago and having subsequent conversations with Mohamed.

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“There was no intent on the part of One Stop to commit any fraud or to hurt anybody. In fact, they’re actively trying to do the opposite,” Sever said. “When they put that machine in there, they thought it was for a legitimate purpose, as I probably would have at the time, too.”

Cryptocurrency ATMs charge transaction fees ranging from 20% to 40%, while other online methods charge much lower fees, according to a city staff report. Additionally, these machines have minimal oversight and regulatory control, making them popular for fraud and other criminal activity.

Utah Criminal Deputy Attorney General Stewart Young said scammers from other countries often use cryptocurrency ATMs to transfer money across borders. That also makes them popular tools for money launderers.

The cryptocurrency ATM at Mountainland One Stop is the only one in Wasatch County and will be removed by June 6. Credit: Jonathan Herrera/Park Record

Fraud involving these machines often involves the scammer convincing the victim to deposit money into the scammer’s account, Young explained. 

Persuasion can take a variety of forms.

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For example, “pig-slaughtering” scams involve the scammer targeting a victim online and fattening them up through romance and affection before bleeding them dry.

“The scammer will invariably pretend to be an oil worker working on an oil rig in the Pacific Ocean or something like that,” Young said. “They’ll develop a romance online, and eventually, at some point, they’ll come up with some reason that they need money. It might be, ‘I really want to spend the rest of my life with you, but I can’t get off this oil rig. I want to start my own oil drilling business … and then we can be together forever.’”

Other scammers impersonate law enforcement officials and threaten legal consequences for missing jury duty or not paying a traffic ticket, all while insisting that the situation can be resolved by depositing money at a cryptocurrency ATM.

Another common scheme creates the illusion of investment. After the victim deposits money using a virtual currency kiosk, the scammer will deposit some of their own money into the account to make it look as if the victim’s investment is earning interest, Young explained. The scammer will convince the victim to deposit larger and larger amounts before withdrawing the money and shutting down the account.

Young estimated more than 90% of cryptocurrency ATM transactions are related to fraud or other criminal activity. 

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That’s one reason the Utah House of Representatives passed House Bill 72 during the recent 2026 legislative session. The bill, sponsored by Republican Rep. Ryan D. Wilcox, who represents Weber County, creates statewide restrictions on cryptocurrency ATMs.

The bill requires operators of cryptocurrency ATMs to display a fraud prevention warning in English and Spanish and provide a toll-free, 24/7 customer service line. The machines also must print receipts, including transaction information and the relevant state law enforcement or government agency for reporting fraud.

The bill also makes it illegal for a cryptocurrency ATM to accept transactions over a certain amount. The machine cannot accept more than $2,000 per day during the three days following the customer’s first virtual currency kiosk transaction. After that period, the machine cannot accept more than $5,000 from a single customer per day.

These provisions go into effect on Wednesday.

Starting July 1, local law enforcement agencies are required to have at least one officer undergo specialized cryptocurrency investigation training at least once every three years.

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Some cities have banned cryptocurrency ATMs altogether. Layton was the first city in Utah to do so, which it did in March. Heber City was the second and modeled its ordinance on Layton’s.

Two states, Indiana and Tennessee, have passed legislation banning cryptocurrency ATMs. Both states’ respective governors signed bills during this year’s legislative session. 

Undersheriff Josh Probst said there are no other cryptocurrency ATMs the Sheriff’s Office is aware of in Wasatch County.

In Summit County, Park City Police Department Lt. Danielle Snelson and Sheriff’s Office Sgt. Skyler Talbot said they were only aware of one cryptocurrency ATM, located at Top Stop Chevron on the side of S.R. 224. They were unaware of plans to propose any bans. Snelson said no issues with the machine had been reported to the Police Department. 

Mohamed feels “terrible” that the cryptocurrency ATM was ever installed in Mountainland One Stop and is grateful for Heber City’s ban.

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“It’s been the worst thing I’ve ever put in a business, and I’ve owned my own business for 22 years,” he said. “I would advise every city, every county and state to ban these.”

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Grok, ChatGPT, Claude — 11 AI Models Project Bitcoin Hits $84K to $118K by End of 2026

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Grok, ChatGPT, Claude — 11 AI Models Project Bitcoin Hits K to 8K by End of 2026

Key Takeaways:

  • Bitcoin AI models gave Dec. 31, 2026, targets from $84,500 to $118,400.
  • Polymarket gives BTC 87% odds of topping $80,000 and 40% odds at $100,000.
  • Bitcoin’s 2026 close hinges on ETF flows, liquidity, and institutional demand.

Nearly a Dozen AI Models See Bitcoin Recovering in 2026, but Not Reclaiming Its $126K Peak

Earlier in April, Bitcoin.com News drew on odds from several prediction marketplace events across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Myriad, where traders at the time leaned moderately bullish. Two weeks on, those probabilities remain largely intact, and as of this week, Polymarket data indicates an 87% likelihood that BTC will exceed $80,000 per coin and a 40% chance it reaches $100,000 by year’s end.

For this exercise, we consulted 11 of today’s leading AI chatbots from some of the largest technology firms, posing a straightforward question: What will bitcoin’s price be at the close of Dec. 31, 2026? Our newsdesk turned to chatbots, such as ChatGPT, Claude, Grok, Qwen, Copilot, Venice, Pi, Gemini, and several others, to assess how these systems would respond.

The prompt presented to the models was:

This intellectual exercise crafts a forward-looking framework for bitcoin’s valuation at the close of Dec. 31, 2026. The asset notched an unprecedented high of $126,272 in Oct. 2025. Entering the first week of May, its price sits just above $76,000 after dipping to a low of $59,930 on Feb. 5, 2026. As a seasoned crypto analyst in the bitcoin arena, you are tasked with outlining the currency’s potential year-end trajectory and offering a crisp, coherent rationale for your estimate in two to three sentences (max). Determine the definitive closing price of BTC on Dec. 31, 2026, and state your projected U.S. dollar valuation for bitcoin as that day comes to an end. What is your estimation?

Claude Sonnet 4.6:

Claude Sonnet screenshot.

Grok:

My estimation for Bitcoin’s closing price on December 31, 2026, is $108,500.

Bitcoin’s post-2024 halving cycle peaked at $126k in October 2025 before the standard 40-50% drawdown into early 2026; we’re now in the typical mid-cycle consolidation phase where ETF inflows (already turning strongly positive again in April 2026) and institutional accumulation replace the old miner-driven volatility. With the four-year cycle maturing and macro liquidity expected to improve, 2026 becomes a grind-up year rather than a euphoric new leg—supported by models clustering around $98k–$110k base case. This lands us at a credible year-end close above six figures without assuming another blow-off top.

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Gwen 3.6 Plus:

Grok, ChatGPT, Claude — 11 AI Models Project Bitcoin Hits $84K to $118K by End of 2026
Gwen screenshot.

ChatGPT 5.3 Instant:

Grok, ChatGPT, Claude — 11 AI Models Project Bitcoin Hits $84K to $118K by End of 2026
ChatGPT screenshot.

Pi AI:

Grok, ChatGPT, Claude — 11 AI Models Project Bitcoin Hits $84K to $118K by End of 2026
Pi AI screenshot.

Le Chat:

Grok, ChatGPT, Claude — 11 AI Models Project Bitcoin Hits $84K to $118K by End of 2026
Le Chat screenshot.

Deepseek (Deepthink mode):

Based on the October 2025 peak of $126,272 and the subsequent correction to a low of $59,930 in February 2026, Bitcoin is likely in a post-halving consolidation phase typical of its four-year cycle. The rebound to $76,000 by early May suggests a bottoming process, and with institutional accumulation absorbing sell pressure, the price will gradually recover to close the year at $84,500 on Dec. 31, 2026.

Gemini 3 Fast:

Bitcoin Valuation Framework: Dec. 31, 2026

Based on current market structures and historical cycle data, the projected closing price for bitcoin on December 31, 2026, is $114,500.

Rationale

This valuation anticipates a “second-leg” recovery following the mid-2026 correction, supported by a projected shift toward U.S. monetary easing and the stabilization of institutional spot ETF outflows. While the asset remains below its October 2025 high of $126,272, the year-end trajectory benefits from bitcoin’s maturation into a “macro beta” asset that tracks increasing global liquidity and the exhaustion of the post-halving sell pressure.

Projected Valuation (Dec. 31, 2026): $114,500

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Venice AI:

Based on bitcoin’s established four-year halving cycle and the current trajectory following its October 2025 peak, I project bitcoin will reach $94,500 by December 31, 2026. This valuation accounts for the typical 6-9 month consolidation phase post-peak and the accelerating institutional adoption expected throughout the year as regulatory clarity continues to improve globally.

Claude Opus 4.6:

Grok, ChatGPT, Claude — 11 AI Models Project Bitcoin Hits $84K to $118K by End of 2026
Claude Opus screenshot.

Copilot:

Bitcoin is likely to close around $92,000 on December 31, 2026.
This estimate reflects a moderate recovery from early‑2026 lows but stops short of retesting the 2025 all‑time high.

Bitcoin entered 2026 with sharp volatility, falling as low as $59,930 on Feb. 5, 2026 before stabilizing in the mid‑$70Ks by late April, indicating a market still digesting the post‑ATH drawdown and ETF outflows. Institutional flows, monetary easing, and post‑halving supply dynamics support a gradual rebound, but sentiment remains cautious and options markets continue to price wide‑range outcomes, making a mid‑$90K finish the most balanced trajectory.

Weighing the Variables

Taken together, the slew of AI models produced a spread ranging from a low of $84,500 to a high of $118,400, with most clustering in the $94,000 to $118,000 band by year’s end. The outliers on both ends reflect genuine uncertainty in how each system weights cycle exhaustion against the pace of institutional demand. No model predicted a new all-time high, and none called for a retest of the February lows. That relative convergence around a recovery, rather than a breakout or a collapse, is itself telling.

Grok, ChatGPT, Claude — 11 AI Models Project Bitcoin Hits $84K to $118K by End of 2026

What the exercise reveals is less about any single price target and more about how AI systems process the same market input and prompt. Each model pulled from similar data, the halving cycle, ETF flows, the $59,930 floor, the $126,272 peak, and arrived at different conclusions based on how it weighted those variables. Prediction markets, meanwhile, still assign meaningful odds to a $100,000 close.

Where bitcoin actually lands on December 31 will come down to the same forces these models identified: liquidity conditions, institutional behavior, and whether the second half of 2026 delivers the macro environment that the more bullish estimates are counting on.

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Cryptocurrency scams are on the rise. Here’s how to protect yourself

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Cryptocurrency scams are on the rise. Here’s how to protect yourself

HENRICO COUNTY, Va. (WRIC) — Cryptocurrency scams are on the rise. The Henrico County Police Division has some tips to help you protect yourself.

In a recent Facebook post, officials provided the following guidance on how to avoid getting scammed:

  • Only scammers ask for cryptocurrency. Legitimate businesses and government agencies will never ask for cryptocurrency as payment,
  • Never send crypto to someone you haven’t met in person. Scammers commonly pretend to be someone they’re not. Make sure you truly know and trust someone before you send them cryptocurrency.
  • All cryptocurrency payments are final. Once you send someone cryptocurrency, there’s no reversing the transaction — something scammers know and take advantage of.
  • If they ask for cryptocurrency, hang up. If someone calls, texts, emails or contacts you on social media to pressure you into sending them cryptocurrency, it’s a scam. Hang up or delete the message.
  • Stay suspicious. Slow down and don’t let scammers push you to act quickly. Trust your instincts — if something seems too good to be true, it probably is.

You can report any suspicious activity to the Henrico County Police Division by calling 804-501-5000. You can also file a report online here.

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