Inter Miami are in the form of their lives. They hope this continues when they welcome New York City FC to Chase Stadium on Saturday night for the Eastern Conference final, with a berth in the 2025 MLS Cup on the line. 

While Miami brings star power and holds home pitch advantage, they come up against a New York City side riding high after eliminating the Supporters’ Shield winners. And there are reasons for NYCFC to believe they can pull off another upset here. 

Sports Illustrated takes a look at three key battles that could define which team earns the honor of facing San Diego FC or Vancouver Whitecaps FC in MLS Cup on Dec. 6 

Lionel Messi has been on an absolute heater for Inter Miami all season and has taken things a step further in the playoffs. After a regular season that saw him score 29 goals and register 19 assists in 29 games, he now has six goals and six assists in just four playoff games. 

But, he hasn’t seen a goalkeeper like U.S. men’s national team backstop, Matt Freese. The 27-year-old has been in stellar form as well, posting five saves–including four outstanding stops–against the Philadelphia Union, to help NYCFC advance past the Supporters’ Shield champions. 

While Messi has shown his ability to score in nearly every way possible, the clear-cut opportunities he saw and created against FC Cincinnati and Nashville will be fewer against a stronger defensive team. The opportunities he does get will come up against a better goalie between the posts. 

If NYCFC pulls off the upset, Freese will have a big part to play in it. If he’s not on his game, well, Miami can put together its plans to beat San Diego or the Whitecaps in MLS Cup. 

Kevin O’Toole has had quite a few weeks. He was called up to Ireland for the first time, making the bench as the Irish beat Portugal in a game Cristiano Ronaldo was sent off. Now, he’s clashing with Sergio Busquets in midfield, as well as Messi and the other stars in Miami. 

If anyone is playing with confidence, it’s him. Against Philadelphia, he shut down Danley Jean Jaques and recorded eight defensive contributions.

He will likely be paired with Aidan O’Neill (who served a one-match suspension against Philadelphia) and tasked with combating Busquets in central midfield, and working the ball away from the Spaniard and Rodrigo De Paul. Busquets, in particular, has been potent with his ability to slide passes through Nashville and FC Cincinnati’s midfield and clogging things up in that area of the pitch will be critical for NYCFC. 

Outside of the individual player level, the mentality of both teams is starkly different, with NYCFC on the road and Inter Miami facing a match of defining proportions. 

Led by the veteran poise of Maxi Moralez, New York City FC knows how to win playoff games on the road. In their run to the 2021 MLS Cup title, NYCFC played every game after the first round on the road, just as they would have to do should they make it all the way to the trophy this time around. 

Meanwhile, Miami has fallen short in the most defining games. So far through the playoffs, it has been about seeing off disaster in the wake of the 2024 first-round elimination against Atlanta United. 

They have been able to push the season through two rounds for the first time in club history, but now comes their first massive test–they would even get to lift the Eastern Conference trophy should they win here. 

Miami’s ability to win trophies doesn’t paint a pretty picture: A 2024 Leagues Cup final loss and a 2023 U.S. Open Cup loss hangs alongside their 2023 Leagues Cup title, the only knockout trophy Miami has captured to date.

On Saturday, one of those aspects has to fall. Will it be NYCFC’s away abilities, or Miami’s poor record in big games? 

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